PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
One of the most crucial steps in the practical conservation of endangered endemic mountain plants is to address their population size status and habitat requirements concurrently with understanding their response to future global warming. Three endangered Silene species-Silene leucophylla Boiss., S. schimperiana Boiss., and S. oreosinaica Chowdhuri-in Egypt were the focus of the current study. These species were examined for population status change, habitat quality variables (topography, soil features, and threats), and predictive current and future distributions. To find population size changes, recent field surveys and historical records were compared. Using Random Forest (RF) and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA), habitat preferences were assessed. To forecast present-day distribution and climate change response, an ensemble model was used. The results reported a continuous decline in the population size of the three species. Both RF and CCA addressed that elevation, soil texture (silt, sand, and clay fractions), soil moisture, habitat-type, chlorides, electric conductivity, and slope were among the important variables associated with habitat quality. The central northern sector of the Saint Catherine area is the hotspot location for the predictive current distribution of three species with suitable areas of 291.40, 293.10, and 58.29 km2 for S. leucophylla, S. schimperiana, and S. oreosinaica, respectively. Precipitation-related variables and elevation were the key predictors for the current distribution of three Silene species. In response to climate change scenarios, the three Silene species exhibited a gradual contraction in the predictive suitable areas with upward shifts by 2050 and 2070. The protection of these species and reintroduction to the predicted current and future climatically suitable areas are urgent priorities. Ex-situ conservation and raised surveillance, as well as fenced enclosures may catapult as promising and effective approaches to conserving such threatened species.
摘要：
在实际保护濒危特有山地植物方面，最关键的步骤之一是解决其种群规模状况和栖息地要求，同时了解其对未来全球变暖的反应。三种濒临灭绝的硅烯物种-硅烯白叶树Boiss。,S、schimperanaBoiss。,埃及的S.oreosinaicaChowdhuri是当前研究的重点。检查了这些物种的种群状况变化，栖息地质量变量(地形，土壤特征，和威胁)，以及预测当前和未来的分布。为了发现人口规模的变化，比较了最近的实地调查和历史记录。使用随机森林(RF)和规范对应分析(CCA)，评估了栖息地偏好。预测当前分布和气候变化响应，使用了合奏模型。结果表明，这三个物种的种群规模持续下降。RF和CCA都解决了这个问题，土壤质地(淤泥，沙子,和粘土部分)，土壤湿度,生境类型,氯化物,电导率，和坡度是与栖息地质量相关的重要变量之一。圣凯瑟琳地区的中部北部地区是三种物种的预测当前分布的热点位置，其适宜面积为291.40、293.10和58.29km2。S.schimperana,和S.oreosinaica，分别。与降水相关的变量和海拔是三种硅烯物种当前分布的关键预测因子。为了应对气候变化情景，到2050年和2070年，这三种硅烯物种在预测合适的区域表现出逐渐收缩的趋势，并向上移动。保护这些物种并重新引入预测的当前和未来气候适宜地区是当务之急。迁地保护和加强监测，以及围栏围栏可能会成为保护此类受威胁物种的有希望且有效的方法。
