UK

UK
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在这个观点中,我们提供的证据表明,在过去25年中,老年人对辅助技术(AT)的使用显著增加.我们还解释了这种用途的扩展方式,不仅是用户总数的增加,而且从1999年开始就超越了典型的使用范围,达到了新的用户类别。我们概述了我们对这种扩张背后的一些关键驱动力的意见,比如人口结构的变化,技术进步,以及推广AT作为使老年人实现独立生活的一种手段。以及我们对过去25年AT演变的回顾,我们还讨论了AT研究作为一个领域的未来以及AT研究中术语统一的必要性。最后,我们概述了我们在北诺福克(特别是英国最古老的依赖地区)的经验如何表明,共同创造可能不仅是AT领域成功研究试验的关键,而且是AT成功持续采用的关键。超出其原始使用范围。
    In this viewpoint, we present evidence of a marked increase in the use of assistive technology (AT) by older adults over the last 25 years. We also explain the way in which this use has expanded not only as an increase in terms of the total number of users but also by going beyond the typical scopes of use from its inception in 1999 to reach new categories of users. We outline our opinions on some of the key driving forces behind this expansion, such as population demographic changes, technological advances, and the promotion of AT as a means to enable older adults to achieve independent living. As well as our review of the evolution of AT over the past 25 years, we also discuss the future of AT research as a field and the need for harmonization of terminology in AT research. Finally, we outline how our experience in North Norfolk (notably the United Kingdom\'s most old age-dependent district) suggests that cocreation may be the key to not only successful research trials in the field of AT but also to the successful sustained adoption of AT beyond its original scope of use.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2021年,苏格兰有32%的成年肉类消费者超过了红色和红色加工肉(RPM)摄入量的70g/d建议限值。我们在苏格兰健康调查(2021年)中分析了成年人的RPM消费行为,以更好地了解这一消费者群体。消费者被归类为低,中等,高消费者,总的来说,平均摄入量为66g/d。生活在最贫困地区的男性和个人最有可能成为高消费者(45%,男性与女性相比为30%,分别,44%,而最贫穷地区和最贫穷地区的32%,分别)。在高(55%)和中(52%)消费者中,晚餐占大多数。而低消费者在午餐(40%)和晚餐(48%)之间分配摄入量。在所有团体中,周日的消费量最高,大部分RPM是在超市购买的。牛肉菜和三明治是中高消费者的主要贡献者。这些见解可以为设计与肉类减少目标相一致的有效战略和政策提供信息。例如,专注于修改传统的以肉类为中心的菜肴和三明治的策略可能会产生影响。
    In 2021, 32% of adult meat consumers in Scotland exceeded the 70 g/d recommended limit of red and red processed meat (RPM) intake. We analyzed RPM consumption behaviors among adults in the Scottish Health Survey (2021) to better understand this consumer group. Consumers were categorized into low, medium, and high consumers, and overall, mean intake was 66 g/d. Males and individuals living in the most deprived areas were most likely to be high consumers (45% compared with 30% for males compared with females, respectively, and 44% compared with 32% for those in the most compared with least deprived areas, respectively). Dinners accounted for the majority of intake among high (55%) and medium (52%) consumers, whereas low consumers distributed intake between lunch (40%) and dinner (48%). Across all groups, consumption was highest on Sundays, and majority of RPM was purchased at supermarkets. Beef dishes and sandwiches were primary contributors among high and medium consumers. These insights can inform the design of effective strategies and policies aligned with meat reduction targets. For instance, strategies focusing on modifying traditional meat-centric dishes and sandwiches could be impactful.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:饮食变化对于改善人群健康和实现环境可持续性目标是必要的。在这里,我们分析了英国超市实施的促销活动对购买更健康,更可持续食品的影响。
    方法:三个自然实验检查了促销活动对a)无添加糖(NAS)植物性牛奶(199家商店)销售的影响,B)在“素食”期间推广的产品(在96家商店中),和c)季节性水果(在100个非随机干预和100个匹配的对照存储中)。提供了商店一级产品销售的数据,以售出单位和货币价值(GB)计算,每周汇总。商店人口的主要社会经济地位(SEP)由零售商提供。分析使用中断时间序列和多变量分层混合效应模型。
    结果:促销期间,促销和NAS植物性牛奶的总销量显着增加(促销:126个单位,95CI:105-148;总体:+307台,95CI:264-349)。在SEP购物者普遍较低的商店中,增幅更大。在素食期间,促销时植物性食品的销售额大幅增长(+60单位,95CI:37-84),但不用于整体植物性食品的销售(乳制品替代品:-1131单位,95CI:-5821-3559;肉类替代品:1403单位,95CI:-749-3554)。没有证据表明促销的季节性水果产品的每周销售发生变化(通过销售单位的比率变化进行评估:0.01,95CI:0.00-0.02),相对于对照,干预商店的整体水果类别销售额略有下降(销售单位的比率变化:-0.01,95CI:-0.01-0.00)。
    结论:在促销活动中,有证据表明植物性产品的销售有所增加,但不是时令水果。没有证据表明干预期后有任何持续变化。
    BACKGROUND: Dietary changes are necessary to improve population health and meet environmental sustainability targets. Here we analyse the impact of promotional activities implemented in UK supermarkets on purchases of healthier and more sustainable foods.
    METHODS: Three natural experiments examined the impact of promotional activities on sales of a) no-added-sugar (NAS) plant-based milk (in 199 stores), b) products promoted during \'Veganuary\' (in 96 stores), and c) seasonal fruit (in 100 non-randomised intervention and 100 matched control stores). Data were provided on store-level product sales, in units sold and monetary value (£), aggregated weekly. Predominant socioeconomic position (SEP) of the store population was provided by the retailer. Analyses used interrupted time series and multivariable hierarchical mixed-effects models.
    RESULTS: Sales of both promoted and total NAS plant-based milks increased significantly during the promotional period (Promoted:+126 units, 95%CI: 105-148; Overall:+307 units, 95%CI: 264-349). The increase was greater in stores with predominately low SEP shoppers. During Veganuary, sales increased significantly for plant-based foods on promotion (+60 units, 95%CI: 37-84), but not for sales of plant-based foods overall (dairy alternatives: -1131 units, 95%CI: -5821-3559; meat alternatives: 1403 units, 95%CI: -749-3554). There was no evidence of a change in weekly sales of promoted seasonal fruit products (assessed via ratio change in units sold: 0.01, 95%CI: 0.00-0.02), and overall fruit category sales slightly decreased in intervention stores relative to control (ratio change in units sold: -0.01, 95%CI: -0.01-0.00).
    CONCLUSIONS: During promotional campaigns there was evidence that sales of plant-based products increased, but not seasonal fruits. There was no evidence for any sustained change beyond the intervention period.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:医院常规使用早期预警评分(EWS)来评估患者病情恶化的风险。EWS传统上记录在纸质观察图上,但越来越以数字方式记录。无论哪种情况,这些分数的临床有效性的证据是混合的,以前的研究没有考虑EWS是否会导致恶化患者的治疗方式发生变化.
    目的:本研究旨在检查数字EWS系统的引入是否与更频繁地观察具有异常生命体征的患者有关。早期临床干预的前兆。
    方法:我们于2015年2月至2016年12月在英国一家医院信托基金的4家医院进行了一项2臂阶梯式楔形研究。在控制臂中,使用纸质观察图记录生命体征。在干预臂中,使用了数字EWS系统。主要结局指标是下一次观察时间(TTNO),定义为患者首次升高的EWS(EWS≥3)和随后的观察集之间的时间。次要结果是医院的死亡时间,逗留时间,以及计划外重症监护室入院的时间。使用混合效应Cox模型分析2组之间的差异。使用系统可用性得分调查来评估系统的可用性。
    结果:我们包括12,802个招生,纸张(控制)臂中的1084和数字EWS(干预)臂中的11,718。系统可用性得分为77.6,表明良好的可用性。对照组和干预组的TTNO中位数分别为128(IQR73-218)分钟和131(IQR73-223)分钟,分别。TTNO的相应风险比为0.99(95%CI0.91-1.07;P=0.73)。
    结论:我们证明了该系统具有很强的临床参与度。我们发现任何预定义的患者结果都没有差异,这表明可以在不影响临床护理的情况下实现高度可用的电子系统的引入。我们的发现与以前的数字EWS系统与临床结果的改善相关的说法相反。未来的研究应研究如何将数字EWS系统与新的临床路径集成,以调整员工的行为以改善患者的预后。
    BACKGROUND: Early warning scores (EWS) are routinely used in hospitals to assess a patient\'s risk of deterioration. EWS are traditionally recorded on paper observation charts but are increasingly recorded digitally. In either case, evidence for the clinical effectiveness of such scores is mixed, and previous studies have not considered whether EWS leads to changes in how deteriorating patients are managed.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to examine whether the introduction of a digital EWS system was associated with more frequent observation of patients with abnormal vital signs, a precursor to earlier clinical intervention.
    METHODS: We conducted a 2-armed stepped-wedge study from February 2015 to December 2016, over 4 hospitals in 1 UK hospital trust. In the control arm, vital signs were recorded using paper observation charts. In the intervention arm, a digital EWS system was used. The primary outcome measure was time to next observation (TTNO), defined as the time between a patient\'s first elevated EWS (EWS ≥3) and subsequent observations set. Secondary outcomes were time to death in the hospital, length of stay, and time to unplanned intensive care unit admission. Differences between the 2 arms were analyzed using a mixed-effects Cox model. The usability of the system was assessed using the system usability score survey.
    RESULTS: We included 12,802 admissions, 1084 in the paper (control) arm and 11,718 in the digital EWS (intervention) arm. The system usability score was 77.6, indicating good usability. The median TTNO in the control and intervention arms were 128 (IQR 73-218) minutes and 131 (IQR 73-223) minutes, respectively. The corresponding hazard ratio for TTNO was 0.99 (95% CI 0.91-1.07; P=.73).
    CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated strong clinical engagement with the system. We found no difference in any of the predefined patient outcomes, suggesting that the introduction of a highly usable electronic system can be achieved without impacting clinical care. Our findings contrast with previous claims that digital EWS systems are associated with improvement in clinical outcomes. Future research should investigate how digital EWS systems can be integrated with new clinical pathways adjusting staff behaviors to improve patient outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    污染是全球健康状况不佳的主要原因。低排放区(LEZ)已被确定为有效减少污染,并且越来越受欢迎,但仍存在分歧。了解哪些因素有助于或阻碍实施很重要。在英国,清洁空气区(CAZ,一种LEZ)正在几个城市实施。我们旨在确定实时实施CAZ的关键障碍和促成因素,随着英格兰北部大城市的政策制定和实施,英国。在CAZ向不合规的出租车收费前大约6个月,对城市利益相关者和实施者进行了25次半结构化访谈,公共汽车,重型货车和货车被推出。专题分析用于分析数据。执行者必须在严格的政策框架内运作。主要促成因素包括:自由地调整框架以适应当地环境,财政支持,和跨部门工作。人们认为,对健康的关注有助于向公众证明该政策的合理性。主要障碍包括冲突和当地工业的反对,政客们,和社区。涉及交通限制的空气质量政策的实施仍存在争议。“喊得最大声”的声音往往是那些持负面观点的人,这些会造成分裂的话语,塑造公众舆论,损害执行者的信心。需要从系统的角度来了解可能影响实施成功的社会政治背景。我们向考虑实施LEZ的其他领域提供建议。
    Pollution is a major cause of ill health globally. Low emission zones (LEZ) have been identified as effective in reducing pollution and are increasing in popularity but remain divisive. Understanding what factors help or hinder implementation is important. In the UK, Clean Air Zones (CAZ, a type of LEZ) are being implemented in several cities. We aimed to identify key barriers and enablers to the implementation of a CAZ in real time, as policy was being developed and implemented in a large Northern city in England, UK. Twenty-five semi-structured interviews were conducted with city stakeholders and implementors approximately 6 months before a CAZ charging non-compliant taxis, buses, heavy goods vehicles and vans was launched. Thematic analysis was used to analyse data. Implementers were required to operate within a tight policy framework. Key enablers included: freedom to adapt the framework to local context, financial support, and cross-sector working. A focus on health was felt to be useful in justifying the policy to the public. Key barriers included conflict and opposition from local industry, politicians, and communities. Implementation of air quality policy which involves traffic restrictions remains controversial. The voices which \'shout the loudest\' are often those with negative views, and these can create divisive discourse which shape public opinion and damage confidence of implementers. A systems perspective is needed to understand socio-political contexts which can influence implementation success. We provide recommendations to other areas considering implementing a LEZ.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    间质性肺病(ILD)是许多全身性自身免疫性风湿性疾病(SARD)的重要并发症,虽然临床表现,个人之间的严重程度和前景可能差异很大。尽管流行,没有解决筛查问题的具体指导方针,在这一不同群体中ILD的诊断和管理。预计ACR和EULAR的指导方针,但是需要针对英国的指导方针来考虑英国国民健康服务的框架,本地许可和资金策略。本文概述了指南工作组制定的英国风湿病学会SARD-ILD诊断和管理指南的预期范围。它特别确定了要考虑的SARD,以及将进行系统审查的总体原则。专家共识将基于最新的现有证据,以纳入最终指南。需要解决的关键问题包括筛查ILD的建议,确定监测和药理学和非药理学管理的方法和频率。该指南将根据《创建临床指南:英国风湿病学会方案5.1版》中概述的方法和过程制定。
    Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a significant complication of many systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs), although the clinical presentation, severity and outlook may vary widely between individuals. Despite the prevalence, there are no specific guidelines addressing the issue of screening, diagnosis and management of ILD across this diverse group. Guidelines from the ACR and EULAR are expected, but there is a need for UK-specific guidelines that consider the framework of the UK National Health Service, local licensing and funding strategies. This article outlines the intended scope for the British Society for Rheumatology guideline on the diagnosis and management of SARD-ILD developed by the guideline working group. It specifically identifies the SARDs for consideration, alongside the overarching principles for which systematic review will be conducted. Expert consensus will be produced based on the most up-to-date available evidence for inclusion within the final guideline. Key issues to be addressed include recommendations for screening of ILD, identifying the methodology and frequency of monitoring and pharmacological and non-pharmacological management. The guideline will be developed according to methods and processes outlined in Creating Clinical Guidelines: British Society for Rheumatology Protocol version 5.1.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对电气化供暖的需求不断增长,电气化运输,和电力密集型数据中心挑战分配网络。如果在不考虑配电基础设施的情况下进行电气化项目,可能会有意外的停电和经济损失。需要包含真实世界分发网络信息的数据集来解决此问题。然而,NERC覆盖整个英国(GB)的现有数据集不提供有关需求和容量的信息,这不足以评估连接的可行性。尽管每个分销网络运营商(DNO)都有其供应区域的详细网络信息,即使在同一个DNO中,信息也分散在单独的文件和不同的格式中,这限制了可用性。另一方面,研究能源系统与家庭供暖等社会属性之间的耦合对促进社会福利非常重要,这需要整合社交数据和能源网络数据的更全面的数据集。然而,社交数据集通常是在区域基础上提供的,与能源网络的联系并不简单,这解释了缺乏全面的数据集。为了填补这些空白,本文介绍了两个数据集。第一个是GB分配网络的主要数据集,收集关于公司能力的信息,高峰需求,地点,和父传输节点(网格供应点,即GSP)适用于所有一次变电站(PS)。PS是英国配电网络的重要组成部分,并且在公开数据下处于最低电压水平(11kV)。变电站的固定容量和高峰需求有助于了解现有网络中的剩余空间。父GSP信息有助于将发布的数据集链接到传输网络。收集这些数据集,标准化,并从6个DNOs在GB中发布的具有不同格式的各种文件中合并,使用Python脚本和手动验证。第二个数据集扩展了主网络数据集,将每个PS与人口普查数据中记录的使用不同类型中央供暖的家庭数量联系起来(2021年英格兰和威尔士的人口普查,以及苏格兰的2011年人口普查,因为2022年最新人口普查数据尚未完全发布)。第二数据集的推导是基于在具有适当假设的主数据集中收集的PS的位置。可以复制推导过程以整合其他社交数据集。数据集具有以下重用潜力:1)鉴于PS需求,容量,以及我们数据集中的位置,用户可以估计连接可行性,并评估不同能源技术的最佳部署位置,包括电动汽车,热泵,和不断增长的数据中心,在不同的情况下,在全国范围内。这些评估不仅有利于学术研究,也是为了产业规划和政策制定。2)我们的扩展数据集将家庭信息链接到分销网络。整合的信息促进了社会科学的跨学科研究和分析,能源政策,和电力系统。3)数据集提供的网络需求和容量信息也可以帮助进行实际的参数设置,以提高更广泛的电力系统研究中案例研究的准确性。
    The growing demand for electrified heating, electrified transportation, and power-intensive data centres challenge distribution networks. If electrification projects are carried out without considering electrical distribution infrastructure, there could be unexpected blackouts and financial losses. Datasets containing real-world distribution network information are required to address this. However, the existing dataset at NERC that covers the whole of Great Britain (GB) does not provide information about demand and capacity, which is insufficient for evaluating the connection feasibility. Although each distribution network operator (DNO) has detailed network information for their supply area, the information is scattered in separate files and different formats even within the same DNO, which limits usability. On the other hand, studying the coupling between energy systems and societal attributes such as household heating is important in promoting social welfare, which calls for more comprehensive datasets that integrate the social data and the energy network data. However, social datasets are usually provided on a regional basis, and the link to energy networks is not straightforward, which explains the lack of the comprehensive datasets. To fill these gaps, this paper introduces two datasets. The first is the main dataset for the GB distribution networks, collecting information on firm capacity, peak demands, locations, and parent transmission nodes (grid supply points, namely GSPs) for all primary substations (PSs). PSs are a crucial part of UK distribution networks and are at the lowest voltage level (11 kV) with publicly available data. Substation firm capacity and peak demand facilitate an understanding of the remaining room in the existing network. The parent GSP information helps link the released datasets to transmission networks. These datasets are collected, standardised, and merged from various files with different formats published by the six DNOs in GB, using a Python script and manual validation. The second dataset extends the main network dataset, linking each PS to the number of households that use different types of central heating recorded in census data (Census in year 2021 for England and Wales, and Census 2011 for Scotland as the up-to-date Census 2022 data is not fully released). The derivation of the second dataset is based on the locations of PSs collected in the main dataset with appropriate assumptions. The derivation process may be replicated to integrate other social datasets. The datasets have the following reuse potentials: 1) Given the PS demand, capacity, and locations in our datasets, users can estimate the connection feasibility and evaluate the optimal deployment locations for different energy technologies, including electric vehicles, heat pumps, and the growing data centres, under different scenarios and at a national scale. These evaluations are beneficial not only for academic research, but also for industrial planning and policy making. 2) Our extended dataset links household information to distribution networks. The integrated information facilitates cross-disciplinary research and analysis across social science, energy policy, and power systems. 3) The network demand and capacity information provided by the datasets can also help with realistic parameter settings to improve the accuracy of case studies in broader power system research.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文重点研究了人与养殖非人类动物之间的关系,在这些动物和它们遇到的养殖环境之间,在制定种间地方病的情况下。它研究了非人类体现的能力,英格兰北部农场的牛和羊的机构和主观性对农民和顾问如何遇到和应对跛行和牛病毒性腹泻(BVD)的地方性条件产生了影响。本文借鉴了农民及其顾问的实证研究,探索了三个关键,相互关联,主题:第一,人与动物在农场主体间关系的重要性;第二,与地方病相关的“疾病状况”的非人成分,包括动物的特征和行为以及不同农场的身体与环境之间的关系;最后,动物机构和抵抗力对旨在预防或治疗跛行和BVD的农场干预措施产生了影响。论文的结论是,动物的能力,和非人类的差异,在未来的政策和实践中,应进一步考虑对养殖动物地方病的干预措施。
    This paper focuses on the relationships between people and farmed nonhuman animals, and between these animals and the farmed environments they encounter, in the enactment of interspecies endemic disease situations. It examines how the nonhuman embodied capacities, agency and subjectivities of cows and sheep on farms in the north of England make a difference to how the endemic conditions of lameness and bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) are encountered and responded to by farmers and advisers. The paper draws on empirical research with farmers and their advisers, and explores three key, inter-related, themes: first, the importance of intersubjective relationships between people and animals on farms; second, the nonhuman components of the \'disease situations\' associated with endemic diseases, including animals\' embodied characteristics and behaviours and the relationships between bodies and environments on different farms; and finally the ways in which animal agency and resistance makes a difference to on-farm interventions aiming to prevent or treat lameness and BVD. The paper concludes by arguing that animals\' capacities, and nonhuman difference, should be taken further into account in future policy and practice interventions in endemic disease in farmed animals.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:偏头痛是一种非常普遍的神经系统疾病,由于生产力损失而造成严重的社会负担。从社会的角度来看,我们评估了eptinezumab用于偏头痛预防性治疗的成本-效果.
    方法:开发了离散竞争事件的个体患者模拟,以评估eptinezumab与英国每月≥4天偏头痛且先前治疗失败的成年人的最佳支持治疗相比的成本效益。创建具有采样基线特征的个体来代表该人群,其中包括专门的发作性和慢性偏头痛亚群。临床疗效,实用程序,和工作效率输入基于DELIVER随机对照试验(NCT04418765)的结果。根据文献报道,模拟了自然史事件和治疗假期的时间,以揭示与治疗无关的疾病的任何自然改善。主要结果是每月偏头痛日,偏头痛相关费用,质量调整生命年(QALYs),增量成本效益比,和净货币收益,从2020年开始,每个人都在5年的时间范围内进行了评估。二次分析探索了生命周期和替代治疗停止规则。
    结果:使用eptinezumab治疗在5年内平均节省了0.231个QALY,节省了4,894英镑,使eptinezumab在最佳支持性治疗中占主导地位(即,更好的健康结果和更低的成本)。在相同的社会视角下,概率分析和所有替代假设情景都证实了这一结果。投入的单变量测试表明,净货币收益对生产率损失的天数最敏感,和月薪。
    结论:这项经济评估表明,从社会角度来看,eptinezumab对于每月≥4天的偏头痛患者以及其他≥3天的预防性偏头痛治疗失败的患者是一种具有成本效益的治疗方法.
    背景:不适用。
    BACKGROUND: Migraine is a highly prevalent neurological disease with a substantial societal burden due to lost productivity. From a societal perspective, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of eptinezumab for the preventive treatment of migraine.
    METHODS: An individual patient simulation of discrete competing events was developed to evaluate eptinezumab cost-effectiveness compared to best supportive care for adults in the United Kingdom with ≥ 4 migraine days per month and prior failure of ≥ 3 preventive migraine treatments. Individuals with sampled baseline characteristics were created to represent this population, which comprised dedicated episodic and chronic migraine subpopulations. Clinical efficacy, utility, and work productivity inputs were based on results from the DELIVER randomised controlled trial (NCT04418765). Timing of natural history events and treatment holidays-informed by the literature-were simulated to unmask any natural improvement of the disease unrelated to treatment. The primary outcomes were monthly migraine days, migraine-associated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and net monetary benefit, each evaluated over a 5-year time horizon from 2020. Secondary analyses explored a lifetime horizon and an alternative treatment stopping rule.
    RESULTS: Treatment with eptinezumab resulted in an average of 0.231 QALYs gained at a saving of £4,894 over 5 years, making eptinezumab dominant over best supportive care (i.e., better health outcomes and less costly). This result was confirmed by the probabilistic analysis and all alternative assumption scenarios under the same societal perspective. Univariate testing of inputs showed net monetary benefit was most sensitive to the number of days of productivity loss, and monthly salary.
    CONCLUSIONS: This economic evaluation shows that from a societal perspective, eptinezumab is a cost-effective treatment in patients with ≥ 4 migraine days per month and for whom ≥ 3 other preventive migraine treatments have failed.
    BACKGROUND: N/A.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去,两项研究发现,人类对COVID-19的判断预测集合显示出与计算模型集合相当的预测性能,至少在预测病例发生率时。我们介绍了在德国和波兰进行的一项研究的后续行动,并研究了一种新颖的联合方法来结合人类判断和流行病学建模。
    从2021年5月24日至8月16日,我们每周从一群人类预报员那里得出英国COVID-19病例和死亡预测的一到四周。所有预测的中位数集合已提交给欧洲预测中心。参与者可以使用两个不同的接口:在一个,预报员直接提交了预测分布,在其他预报员中,而是提交了有效繁殖数Rt的预测。然后,使用EpiNow2R软件包中的模拟方法将其用于预测病例和死亡。预测使用原始预测的加权区间得分进行评分,以及在将自然对数应用于预测和观测之后。
    人类预报员的整体表现与欧洲官方预测中心的整体表现相当,在案件和死亡方面,尽管结果对评估细节的变化很敏感.Rt预测的性能与案例的直接预测相当,但死亡更糟糕。在案例中,自我识别的“专家”往往比“非专家”更好地校准,但不是为了死亡。
    人类判断预测和计算模型可以对COVID-19等传染病产生类似质量的预测。预测评估的结果可能会根据选择的指标而变化,并且对什么构成或不构成“良好”预测的判断取决于预测消费者。人类和计算预测的组合具有潜力,但存在需要解决的现实世界挑战。
    UNASSIGNED: In the past, two studies found ensembles of human judgement forecasts of COVID-19 to show predictive performance comparable to ensembles of computational models, at least when predicting case incidences. We present a follow-up to a study conducted in Germany and Poland and investigate a novel joint approach to combine human judgement and epidemiological modelling.
    UNASSIGNED: From May 24th to August 16th 2021, we elicited weekly one to four week ahead forecasts of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the UK from a crowd of human forecasters. A median ensemble of all forecasts was submitted to the European Forecast Hub. Participants could use two distinct interfaces: in one, forecasters submitted a predictive distribution directly, in the other forecasters instead submitted a forecast of the effective reproduction number R t. This was then used to forecast cases and deaths using simulation methods from the EpiNow2 R package. Forecasts were scored using the weighted interval score on the original forecasts, as well as after applying the natural logarithm to both forecasts and observations.
    UNASSIGNED: The ensemble of human forecasters overall performed comparably to the official European Forecast Hub ensemble on both cases and deaths, although results were sensitive to changes in details of the evaluation. R t forecasts performed comparably to direct forecasts on cases, but worse on deaths. Self-identified \"experts\" tended to be better calibrated than \"non-experts\" for cases, but not for deaths.
    UNASSIGNED: Human judgement forecasts and computational models can produce forecasts of similar quality for infectious disease such as COVID-19. The results of forecast evaluations can change depending on what metrics are chosen and judgement on what does or doesn\'t constitute a \"good\" forecast is dependent on the forecast consumer. Combinations of human and computational forecasts hold potential but present real-world challenges that need to be solved.
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