Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world.

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa worldwide owing to changes in land use, species introductions, and climate change. Although more than half of the freshwater fishes in the Chilean Mediterranean ecoregion are considered vulnerable or endangered, still little is known about their biogeography. Fishes of the family Perciliidae are endemic of this region and ideal cases to study potential implications of global warming given their endangered conservation status, small size, restricted range, and limited dispersal capacity in fragmented habitats. Here, we model the spatial distribution of habitats for Percilia irwini and P. gillissi under current (1970-2000) and future (2050-2080) climatic scenarios (SSP245, SSP585). We implement maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models adapted for stream networks using high-resolution datasets of selected geophysical and climatic variables. At present, both species inhabit relatively low-quality habitats. In the future (SSP585), suitable habitats for P. irwini are predicted to be reduced drastically (99%) with potential local extirpations in its northern range. Similarly, up to 62% of suitable habitats for P. gillissi would also be reduced in the future. Our study provides insights about assessing future threats and vulnerability of endemic, endangered, range-restricted, and small-bodied freshwater species in this region and elsewhere.

The global food system is a key driver of land-use and climate change which in turn drive biodiversity change. Developing sustainable food systems is therefore critical to reversing biodiversity loss. We use the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE to estimate the biodiversity impacts embedded within the global food system in 2011. Using models that capture regional variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity both to land use and climate change, we calculate the land-driven and greenhouse gas-driven footprints of food using two metrics of biodiversity: local species richness and rarity-weighted species richness. We show that the footprint of land area underestimates biodiversity impact in more species-rich regions and that our metric of rarity-weighted richness places a greater emphasis on biodiversity costs in Central and South America. We find that methane emissions are responsible for 70% of the overall greenhouse gas-driven biodiversity footprint and that, in several regions, emissions from a single year\'s food production are associated with global biodiversity loss equivalent to 2% or more of that region\'s total land-driven biodiversity loss. The measures we present are relatively simple to calculate and could be incorporated into decision-making and environmental impact assessments by governments and businesses.

Guava (Psidium guajava L.) is a semi-domesticated fruit tree of moderate importance in the Neotropics, utilized for millennia due to its nutritional and medicinal benefits, but its origin of domestication remains unknown. In this study, we examine genetic diversity and population structure in 215 plants from 11 countries in Mesoamerica, the Andes, and Amazonia using 25 nuclear microsatellite loci to propose an origin of domestication. Genetic analyses reveal one gene pool in Mesoamerica (Mexico) and four in South America (Brazilian Amazonia, Peruvian Amazonia and Andes, and Colombia), indicating greater differentiation among localities, possibly due to isolation between guava populations, particularly in the Amazonian and Andean regions. Moreover, Mesoamerican populations show high genetic diversity, with moderate genetic structure due to gene flow from northern South American populations. Dispersal scenarios suggest that Brazilian Amazonia is the probable origin of guava domestication, spreading from there to the Peruvian Andes, northern South America, Central America, and Mexico. These findings present the first evidence of guava domestication in the Americas, contributing to a deeper understanding of its evolutionary history.

Clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus was detected in the South American sea lions found dead in Santa Catarina, Brazil, in October 2023. Whole genome sequencing and comparative phylogenetic analysis were conducted to investigate the origin, genetic diversity, and zoonotic potentials of the H5N1 viruses. The H5N1 viruses belonged to the genotype B3.2 of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 virus, which was identified in North America and disseminated to South America. They have acquired new amino acid substitutions related to mammalian host affinity. Our study provides insights into the genetic landscape of HPAI H5N1 viruses in Brazil, highlighting the continuous evolutionary processes contributing to their possible adaptation to mammalian hosts.

CarexsectionJunciformes is one of the most diverse groups of the genus in South America, consisting of approximately 30 species. Here we describe a new species, Carexrecondita, belonging to this section. We studied its placement within a molecular phylogeny of the group and found it to constitute an independent lineage. The new species is morphologically very close to C.austroamericana, from southern Patagonia, despite being phylogenetically divergent to the rest of Patagonian species of sect. Junciformes. So far, this species is known only from a few specimens recently collected in its type locality, despite growing in a well-collected area in the Andes of Metropolitana Region of Santiago, the most populated administrative region of Chile. We provide a detailed morphological description, comments on its relationship with other Southern Cone species of sect. Junciformes and relevant ecological notes.

The extent of aerial flows of insects circulating around the planet and their impact on ecosystems and biogeography remain enigmatic because of methodological challenges. Here we report a transatlantic crossing by Vanessa cardui butterflies spanning at least 4200 km, from West Africa to South America (French Guiana) and lasting between 5 and 8 days. Even more, we infer a likely natal origin for these individuals in Western Europe, and the journey Europe-Africa-South America could expand to 7000 km or more. This discovery was possible through an integrative approach, including coastal field surveys, wind trajectory modelling, genomics, pollen metabarcoding, ecological niche modelling, and multi-isotope geolocation of natal origins. The overall journey, which was energetically feasible only if assisted by winds, is among the longest documented for individual insects, and potentially the first verified transatlantic crossing. Our findings suggest that we may be underestimating transoceanic dispersal in insects and highlight the importance of aerial highways connecting continents by trade winds.

The potato cyst nematode Globodera rostochiensis originates from the Andean Mountain region in South America and has unintentionally been introduced to all inhabited continents. Several studies have examined the population genetic structure of this pest in various countries by using microsatellite markers. However, merging microsatellite data produced from different laboratories is challenging and can introduce uncertainty when interpreting the results. To overcome this challenge and to explore invasion routes of this pest, we have genotyped 22 G. rostochiensis populations from all continents. Within populations, the highest genetic diversity was observed in the South American populations, the European populations showed an intermediate level of genetic diversity and the remaining populations were the less diverse. This confirmed pre-existing knowledge such as a first introduction event from South America to Europe, but the less diverse populations could originate either from South America or from Europe. At the continental scale, STRUCTURE genetic clustering output indicated that North America and Asia have experienced at least two introduction events. Comparing different evolutionary scenarios, the Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis showed that Europe served as a secondary distribution centre for the invasion of G. rostochiensis into all other continents (North America, Africa, Asia and Oceania).

The nasal cavity of living mammals is a unique structural complex among tetrapods, acquired along a series of major morphological transformations that occurred mainly during the Mesozoic Era, within the Synapsida clade. Particularly, non-mammaliaform cynodonts document several morphological changes in the skull, during the Triassic Period, that represent the first steps of the mammalian bauplan. We here explore the nasal cavity of five cynodont taxa, namely Thrinaxodon, Chiniquodon, Prozostrodon, Riograndia, and Brasilodon, in order to discuss the main changes within this skull region. We did not identify ossified turbinals in the nasal cavity of these taxa and if present, as non-ossified structures, they would not necessarily be associated with temperature control or the development of endothermy. We do, however, notice a complexification of the cartilage anchoring structures that divide the nasal cavity and separate it from the brain region in these forerunners of mammals.

BACKGROUND: Unenlagiine paravians are among the most relevant Gondwanan theropod dinosaur clades for understanding the origin of birds, yet their fossil record remains incomplete, with most taxa being represented by fragmentary material and/or separated by lengthy temporal gaps, frustrating attempts to characterize unenlagiine evolution.
CONCLUSIONS: Here we describe Diuqin lechiguanae gen. et sp. nov., a new unenlagiine taxon from the Upper Cretaceous (Santonian) Bajo de la Carpa Formation of the Neuquén Basin of Neuquén Province in northern Patagonia, Argentina that fills a substantial stratigraphic gap in the fossil record of these theropods. Although known only from a very incomplete postcranial skeleton, the preserved bones of Diuqin differ from corresponding elements in other unenlagiines, justifying the erection of the new taxon. Moreover, in several morphological aspects, the humerus of Diuqin appears intermediate between those of geologically older unenlagiines from the Neuquén Basin (e.g., Unenlagia spp. from the Turonian-Coniacian Portezuelo Formation) and that of the stratigraphically younger, larger-bodied Austroraptor cabazai from the Campanian-Maastrichtian Allen Formation. Consequently, the morphology of the new taxon appears to indicate a transitional stage in unenlagiine evolution. Phylogenetic analysis recovers Diuqin as a paravian with multiple plausible systematic positions, but the strongest affinity is with Unenlagiinae. The humerus of the new form exhibits subcircular punctures near its distal end that are interpreted as feeding traces most likely left by a conical-toothed crocodyliform, mammal, or theropod, the latter potentially corresponding to a megaraptorid or another unenlagiine individual. Thus, in addition to filling important morphological and temporal gaps in unenlagiine evolutionary history, the new taxon also offers information relating to the paleoecology of these theropods.