Nutrient foramina are small openings in the periosteal surface of the mid-shaft region of long bones that traverse the cortical layer and reach the medullary cavity. They are important for the delivery of nutrients and oxygen to bone tissue and are crucial for the repair and remodeling of bones over time. The nutrient foramina in the femur\'s diaphysis are related to the energetic needs of the femur and have been shown to be related to the maximum metabolic rate (MMR) of taxa. Here, we investigate the relationship between nutrient foramen size and body mass as a proxy to the aerobic capacity of taxa in living and extinct xenarthrans, including living sloths, anteaters, and armadillos, as well as extinct xenarthrans such as glyptodonts, pampatheres, and ground sloths. Seventy femora were sampled, including 20 from extant taxa and 50 from extinct taxa. We obtained the blood flow rate (Q̇) based on foramina area and performed PGLS and phylogenetic ANCOVA in order to explore differences among mammalian groups. Our results show that, among mammals, taxa commonly associated with lower metabolism like living xenarthrans showed relatively smaller foramina, while the foramina of giant extinct xenarthrans like ground sloths and glyptodonts overlapped with non-xenarthran placentals. Consequently, Q̇ estimations indicated aerobic capacities comparable to other placental giant taxa like elephants or some ungulates. Furthermore, the estimation of the MMR for fossil giant taxa showed similar results, with almost all taxa showing high values except for those for which strong semi-arboreal or fossorial habits have been proposed. Moreover, the results are compatible with the diets predicted for extinct taxa, which indicate a strong consumption of grass similar to ungulates and in contrast to the folivorous or insectivorous diets of extant xenarthrans. The ancestral reconstruction of the MMR values indicated a lack of a common pattern for all xenarthrans, strongly supporting the occurrence of low metabolic rates in extant forms due to their particular dietary preferences and arboreal or fossorial habits. Our results highlight the importance of considering different evidence beyond the phylogenetic position of extinct taxa, especially when extinct forms are exceptionally different from their extant relatives. Future studies evaluating the energetic needs of giant extinct xenarthrans should not assume lower metabolic rates for these extinct animals based solely on their phylogenetic position and the observations on their extant relatives.

Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)1. The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR2, but the long-term context of recent temperatures in the region is unclear. Here we show that the January-March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum. The 2016, 2004 and 2022 events were the next warmest, exceeding the 90th-percentile limit. Climate model analysis confirms that human influence on the climate system is responsible for the rapid warming in recent decades. This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes, post-1900 warming trend and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic climate change is now realized. Without urgent intervention, the iconic GBR is at risk of experiencing temperatures conducive to near-annual coral bleaching3, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems services. A continuation on the current trajectory would further threaten the ecological function4 and outstanding universal value5 of one of Earth\'s greatest natural wonders.

There is a strong relationship between metazoan body size and extinction risk. However, the size selectivity and underlying mechanisms in foraminifera, a common marine protozoa, remain controversial. Here, we found that foraminifera exhibit size-dependent extinction selectivity, favoring larger groups (>7.4 log10 cubic micrometer) over smaller ones. Foraminifera showed significant size selectivity in the Guadalupian-Lopingian, Permian-Triassic, and Cretaceous-Paleogene extinctions where the proportion of large genera exceeded 50%. Conversely, in extinctions where the proportion of large genera was <45%, foraminifera displayed no selectivity. As most of these extinctions coincided with oceanic anoxic events, we conducted simulations to assess the effects of ocean deoxygenation on foraminifera. Our results indicate that under suboxic conditions, oxygen fails to diffuse into the cell center of large foraminifera. Consequently, we propose a hypothesis to explain size distribution-related selectivity and Lilliput effect in animals relying on diffusion for oxygen during past and future ocean deoxygenation, i.e., oxygen diffusion distance in body.

A central objective of historical biogeography is to understand where clades originated and how they moved across space and over time. However, given the dynamic history of ecosystem changes in response to climate change and geological events, the manifold long-distance dispersals over evolutionary timescales, and regional and global extinctions, it remains uncertain how reliable inferences based solely on extant taxa can be achieved. Using a novel species-level phylogeny of all known extant and extinct species of the mammalian order Carnivora and related extinct groups, we show that far more precise and accurate ancestral areas can be estimated by fully integrating extinct species into the analyses, rather than solely relying on extant species or identifying ancestral areas only based on the geography of the oldest fossils. Through a series of simulations, we further show that this conclusion is robust under realistic scenarios in which the unknown extinct taxa represent a biased subset of all extinct species. Our results highlight the importance of integrating fossil taxa into a phylogenetic framework to further improve our understanding of historical biogeography and reveal the dynamic dispersal and diversification history of carnivores.

Complex patterns of genome evolution associated with the end-Cretaceous [Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg)] mass extinction limit our understanding of the early evolutionary history of modern birds. Here, we analyzed patterns of avian molecular evolution and identified distinct macroevolutionary regimes across exons, introns, untranslated regions, and mitochondrial genomes. Bird clades originating near the K-Pg boundary exhibited numerous shifts in the mode of molecular evolution, suggesting a burst of genomic heterogeneity at this point in Earth\'s history. These inferred shifts in substitution patterns were closely related to evolutionary shifts in developmental mode, adult body mass, and patterns of metabolic scaling. Our results suggest that the end-Cretaceous mass extinction triggered integrated patterns of evolution across avian genomes, physiology, and life history near the dawn of the modern bird radiation.

Outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases are influenced by local biotic and abiotic factors, with host declines occurring when conditions favour the pathogen. Deterioration in the population of the micro-endemic Tanzanian Kihansi spray toad (Nectophrynoides asperginis) occurred after the construction of a hydropower dam, implicating habitat modification in this species decline. Population recovery followed habitat augmentation; however, a subsequent outbreak of chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) led to the spray toad\'s extinction in the wild. We show using spatiotemporal surveillance and mitogenome assembly of Bd from archived toad mortalities that the outbreak was caused by invasion of the BdCAPE lineage and not the panzootic lineage BdGPL. Molecular dating reveals an emergence of BdCAPE across southern Africa overlapping with the timing of the spray toad\'s extinction. That our post-outbreak surveillance of co-occurring amphibian species in the Udzungwa Mountains shows widespread infection by BdCAPE yet no signs of ill-health or decline suggests these other species can tolerate Bd when environments are stable. We conclude that, despite transient success in mitigating the impact caused by dams\' construction, invasion by BdCAPE caused the ultimate die-off that led to the extinction of the Kihansi spray toad.

Understanding the variability of extinction risk and its potential drivers across different spatial extents is crucial to revealing the underlying processes of biodiversity loss and sustainability. However, in countries with high climatic and topographic heterogeneity, studies on extinction risk are often challenged by complexities associated with extent effects. Here, using 2.02 million fine-grained distribution records and a phylogeny including 27,185 species, we find that the extinction risk of flowering plants in China is spatially concentrated in southwestern China. Our analyses suggest that spatial extinction risks of flowering plants in China may be caused by multiple drivers and are extent dependent. Vegetation structure based on proportion of growth forms is likely the dominant extinction driver at the national extent, followed by climatic and evolutionary drivers. Finer extent analyses indicate that the potential dominant extinction drivers vary across zones and vegetation regions. Despite regional heterogeneity, we detect a geographical continuity potential in extinction drivers, with variation in West China dominated by vegetation structure, South China by climate, and North China by evolution. Our findings highlight that identification of potential extent-dependent drivers of extinction risk is crucial for targeted conservation practice in countries like China.

Museum genomics provide an opportunity to investigate population demographics of extinct species, especially valuable when research prior to extinction was minimal. The Bachman\'s warbler (Vermivora bachmanii) is hypothesized to have gone extinct due to loss of its specialized habitat. However, little is known about other potential contributing factors such as natural rarity or changes to connectivity following habitat fragmentation. We examined mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and genome-wide SNPs using specimens collected from breeding and migration sites across the range of the Bachman\'s warbler. We found no signals of strong population structuring across the breeding range of Bachman\'s warblers in both mtDNA and genome-wide SNPs. Thus, long-term population isolation did not appear to be a significant contributor to the extinction of the Bachman\'s warbler. Instead, our findings support the theory that Bachman\'s warblers underwent a rapid decline likely driven by habitat destruction, which may have been exacerbated by the natural rarity, habitat specificity and low genetic diversity of the species.

Species life-history traits, paleoenvironment, and biotic interactions likely influence speciation and extinction rates, affecting species richness over time. Birth-death models inferring the impact of these factors typically assume monotonic relationships between single predictors and rates, limiting our ability to assess more complex effects and their relative importance and interaction. We introduce a Bayesian birth-death model using unsupervised neural networks to explore multifactorial and nonlinear effects on speciation and extinction rates using fossil data. It infers lineage- and time-specific rates and disentangles predictor effects and importance through explainable artificial intelligence techniques. Analysis of the proboscidean fossil record revealed speciation rates shaped by dietary flexibility and biogeographic events. The emergence of modern humans escalated extinction rates, causing recent diversity decline, while regional climate had a lesser impact. Our model paves the way for an improved understanding of the intricate dynamics shaping clade diversification.

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species\' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species\' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.