Evolutionary rescue, whereby adaptive evolutionary change rescues populations from extinction, is theorized to enable imperiled animal populations to persist under increasing anthropogenic change. Despite a large body of evidence in theoretical and laboratory settings, the potential for evolutionary rescue to be a viable adaptation process for free-ranging animals remains unknown. Here, we leverage a 38-year dataset following the fates of 53,959 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) to investigate whether a free-ranging vertebrate species can morphologically adapt to long-term environmental change sufficiently to promote population persistence. Despite strong selective pressures, we found that penguins did not adapt morphologically to long-term environmental changes, leading to projected population extirpation. Fluctuating selection benefited larger penguins in some environmental contexts, and smaller penguins in others, ultimately mitigating their ability to adapt under increasing environmental variability. Under future climate projections, we found that the species cannot be rescued by adaptation, suggesting similar constraints for other long-lived species. Such results reveal how fluctuating selection driven by environmental variability can inhibit adaptation under long-term environmental change. Our eco-evolutionary approach helps explain the lack of adaptation and evolutionary rescue in response to environmental change observed in many animal species.

Nutrient foramina are small openings in the periosteal surface of the mid-shaft region of long bones that traverse the cortical layer and reach the medullary cavity. They are important for the delivery of nutrients and oxygen to bone tissue and are crucial for the repair and remodeling of bones over time. The nutrient foramina in the femur\'s diaphysis are related to the energetic needs of the femur and have been shown to be related to the maximum metabolic rate (MMR) of taxa. Here, we investigate the relationship between nutrient foramen size and body mass as a proxy to the aerobic capacity of taxa in living and extinct xenarthrans, including living sloths, anteaters, and armadillos, as well as extinct xenarthrans such as glyptodonts, pampatheres, and ground sloths. Seventy femora were sampled, including 20 from extant taxa and 50 from extinct taxa. We obtained the blood flow rate (Q̇) based on foramina area and performed PGLS and phylogenetic ANCOVA in order to explore differences among mammalian groups. Our results show that, among mammals, taxa commonly associated with lower metabolism like living xenarthrans showed relatively smaller foramina, while the foramina of giant extinct xenarthrans like ground sloths and glyptodonts overlapped with non-xenarthran placentals. Consequently, Q̇ estimations indicated aerobic capacities comparable to other placental giant taxa like elephants or some ungulates. Furthermore, the estimation of the MMR for fossil giant taxa showed similar results, with almost all taxa showing high values except for those for which strong semi-arboreal or fossorial habits have been proposed. Moreover, the results are compatible with the diets predicted for extinct taxa, which indicate a strong consumption of grass similar to ungulates and in contrast to the folivorous or insectivorous diets of extant xenarthrans. The ancestral reconstruction of the MMR values indicated a lack of a common pattern for all xenarthrans, strongly supporting the occurrence of low metabolic rates in extant forms due to their particular dietary preferences and arboreal or fossorial habits. Our results highlight the importance of considering different evidence beyond the phylogenetic position of extinct taxa, especially when extinct forms are exceptionally different from their extant relatives. Future studies evaluating the energetic needs of giant extinct xenarthrans should not assume lower metabolic rates for these extinct animals based solely on their phylogenetic position and the observations on their extant relatives.

Linking genetic diversity to extinction is a common goal in genomic studies. Recently, a debate has arisen regarding the importance of genetic variation in conservation as some studies have failed to find associations between genome-wide genetic diversity and extinction risk. However, only rarely are genetic diversity and fitness measured together in the wild, and typically demographic history and environment are ignored. It is therefore difficult to infer whether a lack of an association is real or obscured by confounding factors. To address these shortcomings, we analyzed genetic data from 7,501 individuals with extinction data from 279 meadows and mortality of 1,742 larval nests in a butterfly metapopulation. We found a strong negative association between genetic diversity and extinction when considering only heterozygosity in models. However, this association disappeared when accounting for ecological covariates, suggesting a confounding between demography and genetics and a more complex role for heterozygosity in extinction risk. Modeling interactions between heterozygosity and demographic variables revealed that associations between extinction and heterozygosity were context-dependent. For example, extinction declined with increasing heterozygosity in large, but not currently small populations, although negative associations between heterozygosity, extinction, and mortality were detected in small populations with a recent history of decline. We conclude that low genetic diversity is an important predictor of extinction, predicting >25% increase in extinction beyond ecological factors in certain contexts. These results highlight that inferences about the importance of genetic diversity for population viability should not rely on genomic data alone but require investments in obtaining demographic and environmental data from natural populations.

Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)1. The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR2, but the long-term context of recent temperatures in the region is unclear. Here we show that the January-March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum. The 2016, 2004 and 2022 events were the next warmest, exceeding the 90th-percentile limit. Climate model analysis confirms that human influence on the climate system is responsible for the rapid warming in recent decades. This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes, post-1900 warming trend and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic climate change is now realized. Without urgent intervention, the iconic GBR is at risk of experiencing temperatures conducive to near-annual coral bleaching3, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems services. A continuation on the current trajectory would further threaten the ecological function4 and outstanding universal value5 of one of Earth\'s greatest natural wonders.

There is a strong relationship between metazoan body size and extinction risk. However, the size selectivity and underlying mechanisms in foraminifera, a common marine protozoa, remain controversial. Here, we found that foraminifera exhibit size-dependent extinction selectivity, favoring larger groups (>7.4 log10 cubic micrometer) over smaller ones. Foraminifera showed significant size selectivity in the Guadalupian-Lopingian, Permian-Triassic, and Cretaceous-Paleogene extinctions where the proportion of large genera exceeded 50%. Conversely, in extinctions where the proportion of large genera was <45%, foraminifera displayed no selectivity. As most of these extinctions coincided with oceanic anoxic events, we conducted simulations to assess the effects of ocean deoxygenation on foraminifera. Our results indicate that under suboxic conditions, oxygen fails to diffuse into the cell center of large foraminifera. Consequently, we propose a hypothesis to explain size distribution-related selectivity and Lilliput effect in animals relying on diffusion for oxygen during past and future ocean deoxygenation, i.e., oxygen diffusion distance in body.

A central objective of historical biogeography is to understand where clades originated and how they moved across space and over time. However, given the dynamic history of ecosystem changes in response to climate change and geological events, the manifold long-distance dispersals over evolutionary timescales, and regional and global extinctions, it remains uncertain how reliable inferences based solely on extant taxa can be achieved. Using a novel species-level phylogeny of all known extant and extinct species of the mammalian order Carnivora and related extinct groups, we show that far more precise and accurate ancestral areas can be estimated by fully integrating extinct species into the analyses, rather than solely relying on extant species or identifying ancestral areas only based on the geography of the oldest fossils. Through a series of simulations, we further show that this conclusion is robust under realistic scenarios in which the unknown extinct taxa represent a biased subset of all extinct species. Our results highlight the importance of integrating fossil taxa into a phylogenetic framework to further improve our understanding of historical biogeography and reveal the dynamic dispersal and diversification history of carnivores.

Complex patterns of genome evolution associated with the end-Cretaceous [Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg)] mass extinction limit our understanding of the early evolutionary history of modern birds. Here, we analyzed patterns of avian molecular evolution and identified distinct macroevolutionary regimes across exons, introns, untranslated regions, and mitochondrial genomes. Bird clades originating near the K-Pg boundary exhibited numerous shifts in the mode of molecular evolution, suggesting a burst of genomic heterogeneity at this point in Earth\'s history. These inferred shifts in substitution patterns were closely related to evolutionary shifts in developmental mode, adult body mass, and patterns of metabolic scaling. Our results suggest that the end-Cretaceous mass extinction triggered integrated patterns of evolution across avian genomes, physiology, and life history near the dawn of the modern bird radiation.

Outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases are influenced by local biotic and abiotic factors, with host declines occurring when conditions favour the pathogen. Deterioration in the population of the micro-endemic Tanzanian Kihansi spray toad (Nectophrynoides asperginis) occurred after the construction of a hydropower dam, implicating habitat modification in this species decline. Population recovery followed habitat augmentation; however, a subsequent outbreak of chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) led to the spray toad\'s extinction in the wild. We show using spatiotemporal surveillance and mitogenome assembly of Bd from archived toad mortalities that the outbreak was caused by invasion of the BdCAPE lineage and not the panzootic lineage BdGPL. Molecular dating reveals an emergence of BdCAPE across southern Africa overlapping with the timing of the spray toad\'s extinction. That our post-outbreak surveillance of co-occurring amphibian species in the Udzungwa Mountains shows widespread infection by BdCAPE yet no signs of ill-health or decline suggests these other species can tolerate Bd when environments are stable. We conclude that, despite transient success in mitigating the impact caused by dams\' construction, invasion by BdCAPE caused the ultimate die-off that led to the extinction of the Kihansi spray toad.

Understanding the variability of extinction risk and its potential drivers across different spatial extents is crucial to revealing the underlying processes of biodiversity loss and sustainability. However, in countries with high climatic and topographic heterogeneity, studies on extinction risk are often challenged by complexities associated with extent effects. Here, using 2.02 million fine-grained distribution records and a phylogeny including 27,185 species, we find that the extinction risk of flowering plants in China is spatially concentrated in southwestern China. Our analyses suggest that spatial extinction risks of flowering plants in China may be caused by multiple drivers and are extent dependent. Vegetation structure based on proportion of growth forms is likely the dominant extinction driver at the national extent, followed by climatic and evolutionary drivers. Finer extent analyses indicate that the potential dominant extinction drivers vary across zones and vegetation regions. Despite regional heterogeneity, we detect a geographical continuity potential in extinction drivers, with variation in West China dominated by vegetation structure, South China by climate, and North China by evolution. Our findings highlight that identification of potential extent-dependent drivers of extinction risk is crucial for targeted conservation practice in countries like China.

The process by which adaptive evolution preserves a population threatened with extinction due to environmental changes is known as evolutionary rescue. Several factors determine the fate of those populations, including demography and genetic factors, such as standing genetic variation, gene flow, availability of de novo mutations, and so on. Despite the extensive debate about evolutionary rescue in the current literature, a study about the role of epistasis and the topography of the fitness landscape on the fate of dwindling populations is missing. In the current work, we aim to fill this gap and study the influence of epistasis on the probability of extinction of populations. We present simulation results, and analytical approximations are derived. Counterintuitively, we show that the likelihood of extinction is smaller when the degree of epistasis is higher. The reason underneath is twofold: first, higher epistasis can promote mutations of more significant phenotypic effects, but also, the incongruence between the maps genotype-phenotype and phenotype-fitness turns the fitness landscape at low epistasis more rugged, thus curbing some of its advantages.