There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species\' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT\'s domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration.

This paper focuses on a Gilpin-Ayala growth model with spatial diffusion and Neumann boundary condition to study single species population distribution. In our heterogeneous model, we assume that the diffusive spread of population is proportional to the gradient of population per unit resource, rather than the population density itself. We investigate global well-posedness of the mathematical model, determine conditions on harvesting rate for which non-trivial equilibrium states exist and examine their global stability. We also determine conditions on harvesting that leads to species extinction through global stability of the trivial solution. Additionally, for time periodic growth, resource, capacity and harvesting functions, we prove existence of time-periodic states with the same period. We also present numerical results on the nature of nonzero equilibrium states and their dependence on resource and capacity functions as well as on Gilpin-Ayala parameter [Formula: see text]. We conclude enhanced effects of diffusion for small [Formula: see text] which in particular disallows existence of nontrivial states even in some cases when intrinsic growth rate exceeds harvesting at some locations in space for which a logistic model allows for a nonzero equilibrium density.

Adaptive landscapes are a common way of conceptualizing the phenotypic evolution of lineages across deep time. Although multiple approaches exist to implement this concept into operational models of trait evolution, inferring adaptive landscapes from comparative datasets remains challenging. Here, I explore the macroevolutionary dynamics of echinoid body size using data from over 5000 specimens and a phylogenetic framework incorporating a dense fossil sampling and spanning approximately 270 million years. Furthermore, I implement a novel approach of exploring alternative parameterizations of adaptive landscapes that succeeds in finding simpler, yet better-fitting models. Echinoid body size has been constrained to evolve within a single adaptive optimum for much of the clade\'s history. However, most of the morphological disparity of echinoids was generated by multiple regime shifts that drove the repeated evolution of miniaturized and gigantic forms. Events of body size innovation occurred predominantly in the Late Cretaceous and were followed by a drastic slowdown following the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. The discovery of these patterns is contingent upon directly sampling fossil taxa. The macroevolution of echinoid body size is therefore characterized by a late increase in disparity (likely linked to an expansion of ecospace), generated by active processes driving lineages toward extreme morphologies.

Small populations are at risk of extinction from deterministic and stochastic factors. Less than 250 Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) remain in China, and are distributed in a few isolated areas; yet, population viability analyses of this endangered population have not been conducted. Here, the current genetic status of the Pu\'Er-Mengyang Asian elephant populations in China was analyzed, and the risk of extinction was predicted over the next 500 years. Factors affecting the viability of this population were determined through simulations. The genetic diversity of the population was very low (mean allele number: 3.1; expected heterozygosity: 0.463), even though a recent population bottleneck was not detected. The effective population size was approximately 24.1 adult elephants. Enough adult breeding individuals exist to maintain population viability. VORTEX simulation model showed that this population would not go extinct in the next 500 years. However, illegal poaching and harvesting could negatively affect population size. A sensitivity analysis showed that the mean stochastic growth rate of the study population is sensitive to sex ratio, number of breeding females, mortality of females of different age classes, carrying capacity, and lethal equivalents. Based on our results, we suggest that action should be taken to alleviate inbreeding and any further loss of genetic diversity, by connecting fragmented elephant habitat or by translocating individual elephants. In addition, human-elephant conflict should be mitigated using various modern approaches, including crop guarding techniques, and by encouraging farmers to switch to crops and income sources not vulnerable to elephant raids.

Reliable estimates of when hominin taxa originated and went extinct are central to addressing many paleoanthropological questions, including those relating to macroevolutionary patterns. The timing of hominin temporal ranges can be used to test chronological predictions generated from phylogenetic hypotheses. For example, hypotheses of phyletic ancestor-descendant relationships, based on morphological data, predict no temporal range overlap between the two taxa. However, a fossil taxon\'s observed temporal range is almost certainly underestimated due to the incompleteness of both the fossil record itself and its sampling, and this decreases the likelihood of observing temporal overlap. Here, we focus on a well-known and widely accepted early hominin lineage, Australopithecus anamensis-afarensis, and place 95% confidence intervals (CIs) on its origination and extinction dates. We do so to assess whether its temporal range is consistent with it being a phyletic descendant of Ardipithecus ramidus and/or a direct ancestor to the earliest claimed representative of Homo (i.e., Ledi-Geraru). We find that the last appearance of Ar. ramidus falls within the origination CI of Au. anamensis-afarensis, whereas the claimed first appearance of Homo postdates the extinction CI. These results are consistent with Homo evolving from Au. anamensis-afarensis, but temporal overlap between Ar. ramidus and Au. anamensis-afarensis cannot be rejected at this time. Though additional samples are needed, future research should extend our initial analyses to incorporate the uncertainties surrounding the range endpoints of Ar. ramidus and earliest Homo. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the appearances and disappearances of hominin taxa in order to better understand the timing of evolutionary events in our clade\'s history.

In Poland, lake minnow (Eupallasella percnurus Pall.) inhabit 160 sites, including 44 in the eastern part of the country. Their habitats are mainly small and shallow peat holes vulnerable to complete destruction due to being dried or overgrown. Such processes are regularly observed, with ~ 60% of sites having vanished since the 1950s. Therefore, this species is one of the most endangered fish species from the Cyprinidae family in Polish inland waters. A GIS approach was adopted to fully analyze their habitat loss. The habitat area was marked in four time periods (from the 1960s to 2018) in reference to 26 sites composed of 111 reservoirs and representing almost 60% of all those documented in Eastern Poland. On this basis, the rate at which the habitat will vanish and the predicted time when this will happen were calculated. The results showed that the mean vanishing rate oscillates between 1 and 2% of the area per year for 50% of the analyzed sites (N = 13). For three sites (11%), this value does not exceed 1% of each area per year and is higher than 2% for the rest of the sites (39%). The results indicate that if the process of overgrowing and shallowing is not stopped, 58% of the analyzed sites will disappear in the next 50 years (including 8 (31%) in the next 20 years). This trend may lead to a serious decline in the species population or even its extinction in the next decades. Passive protection has proven to be insufficient in preserving lake minnow habitats. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake decisive protection action, as proposed in this manuscript.

The sequence of cheek teeth mineralization, eruption, and replacement of an extinct horse species is here documented with radiological techniques for the first time thanks to the exceptional preservation of Hipparion sp. mandibles from Cerro de los Batallones (Madrid Basin, Spain). The sequence of dental ontogeny in mammals provides valuable insights about life history traits, such as the pace of growth, and about the mode of formation of fossiliferous assemblages. We have determined that the order of permanent cheek teeth mineralization and eruption of hipparionine horses is m1, m2, (p2, p3), p4, m3. Cheek teeth mineralization timing of hipparionine horses coincides with the one observed in modern equids. In turn, there are differences in the eruption timing of the p4 and m3 between horses belonging to the Anchitheriinae and Hipparionini compared to equids of the Equus genus that might be related to the shorter durability of the deciduous tooth dp4 in anchitheriine and hipparionine horses and, more broadly, to an increased durability of equid teeth through their evolutionary history. Based on the dental eruption sequence, hipparionine horses are slow-growing, long-living mammals. The Hipparion sp. assemblage from Batallones-10 conforms to an attritional model, as individuals more vulnerable to natural mortality predominate.

Losing a species from a community can cause further extinctions, a process also known as coextinction. The risk of being extirpated with an interaction partner is commonly inferred from a species\' host-breadth, derived from observing interactions between species. But observational data suffers from imperfect detection, making coextinction estimates highly unreliable. To address this issue and to account for data uncertainty, we fit a hierarchical N-mixture model to individual-level interaction data from a mutualistic network. We predict (1) with how many interaction partners each species interacts (to indicate their coextinction risk) and (2) how completely the community was sampled. We fit the model to simulated interactions to investigate how variation in sampling effort, interaction probability, and animal abundances influence model accuracy and apply it to an empirical dataset of flowering plants and their insect visitors. The model performed well in predicting the number of interaction partners for scenarios with high abundances, but indicated high parameter uncertainty for networks with many rare species. Yet, model predictions were generally closer to the true value than the observations. Our mutualistic plant-insect community most closely resembled the scenario of high interaction rates with low abundances. Median estimates of interaction partners were frequently much higher than the empirical data indicate, but uncertainty was high. Our analysis suggested that we only detected 14-59% of the flower-visiting insect species, indicating that our study design, which is common for pollinator studies, was inadequate to detect many species. Imperfect detection strongly affects the inferences from observed interaction networks and hence, host specificity, specialisation estimates and network metrics from observational data may be highly misleading for assessing a species\' coextinction risks. Our study shows how models can help to estimate coextinction risk, but also indicates the need for better data (i.e., intensified sampling and individual-level observations) to reduce uncertainty.

Understanding the diet of an endangered species illuminates the animal\'s ecology, habitat requirements, and conservation needs. However, direct observation of diet can be difficult, particularly for small, nocturnal animals such as the Pacific pocket mouse (Heteromyidae: Perognathus longimembris pacificus). Very little is known of the dietary habits of this federally endangered rodent, hindering management and restoration efforts. We used a metabarcoding approach to identify source plants in fecal samples (N = 52) from the three remaining populations known. The internal transcribed spacers (ITS) of the nuclear ribosomal loci were sequenced following the Illumina MiSeq amplicon strategy and processed reads were mapped to reference databases. We evaluated a range of threshold mapping criteria and found the best-performing setting generally recovered two distinct mock communities in proportions similar to expectation. We tested our method on captive animals fed a known diet and recovered almost all plant sources, but found substantial heterogeneity among fecal pellets collected from the same individual at the same time. Observed richness did not increase with pooling of pellets from the same individual. In field-collected samples, we identified 4-14 plant genera in individual samples and 74 genera overall, but over 50 percent of reads mapped to just six species in five genera. We simulated the effects of sequencing error, variable read length, and chimera formation to infer taxon-specific rates of misassignment for the local flora, which were generally low with some exceptions. Richness at the species and genus levels did not reach a clear asymptote, suggesting that diet breadth remained underestimated in the current pool of samples. Large numbers of scat samples are therefore needed to make inferences about diet and resource selection in future studies of the Pacific pocket mouse. We conclude that our minimally invasive method is promising for determining herbivore diets given a library of sequences from local plants.

Here we present the most detailed morphological study of the auditory region of a tremarctinae bear, Arctotherium tarijense Ameghino. In addition, we provide new anatomical information of the Tremarctinae inner ear, such as coplanarity and deviation from orthogonality of the semicircular canals, as an approach to infer the head movements which encountered the extinct forms in locomotion. Based on morphological comparisons, A. tarijense exhibits the following particular features: the cavum tympani presents the highest relative volume compared with other ursids; the processus paraoccipitalis has a foramen that is absent in other tremarctines; there is only one (ventral) recess in the anterior region of the cavum tympani; and the recessus epytimpanicus is the smallest for all ursids studied. In relation to the inner ear, A. tarijense shows the lowest values of orthogonality deviation and highest scores of locomotor agility. Based on this, is possible to make a preliminary proposal that this species had a relative high vestibular sensibility and therefore a better ability to explore different kind of habitats. However, this hypothesis might be contrasted among bears taking into account the orientation of each semicircular canal in a phylogenetic framework.