Adaptive landscapes are a common way of conceptualizing the phenotypic evolution of lineages across deep time. Although multiple approaches exist to implement this concept into operational models of trait evolution, inferring adaptive landscapes from comparative datasets remains challenging. Here, I explore the macroevolutionary dynamics of echinoid body size using data from over 5000 specimens and a phylogenetic framework incorporating a dense fossil sampling and spanning approximately 270 million years. Furthermore, I implement a novel approach of exploring alternative parameterizations of adaptive landscapes that succeeds in finding simpler, yet better-fitting models. Echinoid body size has been constrained to evolve within a single adaptive optimum for much of the clade\'s history. However, most of the morphological disparity of echinoids was generated by multiple regime shifts that drove the repeated evolution of miniaturized and gigantic forms. Events of body size innovation occurred predominantly in the Late Cretaceous and were followed by a drastic slowdown following the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. The discovery of these patterns is contingent upon directly sampling fossil taxa. The macroevolution of echinoid body size is therefore characterized by a late increase in disparity (likely linked to an expansion of ecospace), generated by active processes driving lineages toward extreme morphologies.

Asperula naufraga is a rare and threatened obligate chasmophyte, endemic to Zakynthos island (Ionian islands, Greece). In this study, we provide a combined approach (including monitoring of demographic and reproductive parameters and study of genetic diversity) to assess the current conservation status of the species and to estimate its future extinction risk. The five subpopulations of A. naufraga were monitored for five years (2014-2018). Population size markedly fluctuated between 68-130 mature individuals during the monitoring period. The extent of occurrence (EOO) was estimated at 28.7 km2 and the area of occupancy (AOO) was 8 km2. Stage-structure recordings were similar for all subpopulations, characterized by high proportions of adult and senescent individuals, following a common pattern, which has been observed in other cliff-dwelling plants. Preliminary genetic analysis with SSRs markers revealed low heterozygosity within subpopulations and significant departure from H-W equilibrium, which combined with small population size suggest increased threat of genetic diversity loss. Our results indicate that the species should be placed in the Critically Endangered (CR) IUCN threat category, while according to Population Viability Analysis results its extinction risk increases to 47.8% in the next 50 years. The small population size combined with large fluctuations in its size, low recruitment and low genetic diversity, indicate the need of undertaking effective in situ and ex situ conservation measures.

Small populations are at risk of extinction from deterministic and stochastic factors. Less than 250 Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) remain in China, and are distributed in a few isolated areas; yet, population viability analyses of this endangered population have not been conducted. Here, the current genetic status of the Pu\'Er-Mengyang Asian elephant populations in China was analyzed, and the risk of extinction was predicted over the next 500 years. Factors affecting the viability of this population were determined through simulations. The genetic diversity of the population was very low (mean allele number: 3.1; expected heterozygosity: 0.463), even though a recent population bottleneck was not detected. The effective population size was approximately 24.1 adult elephants. Enough adult breeding individuals exist to maintain population viability. VORTEX simulation model showed that this population would not go extinct in the next 500 years. However, illegal poaching and harvesting could negatively affect population size. A sensitivity analysis showed that the mean stochastic growth rate of the study population is sensitive to sex ratio, number of breeding females, mortality of females of different age classes, carrying capacity, and lethal equivalents. Based on our results, we suggest that action should be taken to alleviate inbreeding and any further loss of genetic diversity, by connecting fragmented elephant habitat or by translocating individual elephants. In addition, human-elephant conflict should be mitigated using various modern approaches, including crop guarding techniques, and by encouraging farmers to switch to crops and income sources not vulnerable to elephant raids.

Two separate subfamilies of Plio-Pleistocene African pigs (suids) consecutively evolved hypsodont and horizodont molars with flat occlusal surfaces, commonly interpreted as an adaptive trait to a grazing diet, similar to that of the present warthogs (Phacochoerus spp.). To investigate this in detail, we studied the 3D-dental topography of fossil specimens from the Turkana Basin, using geographic information systems-based methods. To establish baselines for interpretation of the Turkana Basin suids, topography of third molars of extant suids with known diets were analyzed: grazing warthog (Phacochoerus africanus), herbivorous mixed-feeder forest hog (Hylochoerus meinertzhageni), omnivorous generalist wild boar (Sus scrofa), omnivorous fruit and tuber eater bush pig (Potamochoerus spp.), and omnivorous fruit eater babirusa (Babyrousa spp.) In addition, we analyzed supposedly browsing Miocene suids, Listriodon spp. The same topographic measures were applied to Plio-Pleistocene specimens from the Turkana Basin, Kenya: Notochoerus euilus, Notochoerus scotti, Kolpochoerus heseloni, and Metridiochoerus andrewsi. With some differences between techniques, 3D-dental topography analysis of extant suid molars mostly predicts the dietary differences between the species correctly. The grazing P. africanus differs from both the omnivorous suids and the herbivorous mixed-feeder H. meinertzhageni in all except one metrics. The omnivorous mostly tropical suids, Potamochoerus and Babyrousa, primarily differ from the generalist, S. scrofa, in the orientation patch count analysis, showing higher occlusal complexity in the latter. Although, there might be significant gaps between the morphological changes and the ecological changes, we conclude that based on comparison of dental topography with the present-day suids, N. scotti and M. andrewsi were most likely highly specialized grazers, while N. euilus and K. heseloni retained more of their ancestral, omnivorous heritage, but consumed grasses more than the extant omnivorous suids. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: Dental topography can predict different diets in present-day wild pigs. The Plio-Pleistocene pigs in the Turkana Basin had dental topography mostly similar to extant grazing warthog, although some species also had resemblances to omnivorous forest pigs.

Reliable estimates of when hominin taxa originated and went extinct are central to addressing many paleoanthropological questions, including those relating to macroevolutionary patterns. The timing of hominin temporal ranges can be used to test chronological predictions generated from phylogenetic hypotheses. For example, hypotheses of phyletic ancestor-descendant relationships, based on morphological data, predict no temporal range overlap between the two taxa. However, a fossil taxon\'s observed temporal range is almost certainly underestimated due to the incompleteness of both the fossil record itself and its sampling, and this decreases the likelihood of observing temporal overlap. Here, we focus on a well-known and widely accepted early hominin lineage, Australopithecus anamensis-afarensis, and place 95% confidence intervals (CIs) on its origination and extinction dates. We do so to assess whether its temporal range is consistent with it being a phyletic descendant of Ardipithecus ramidus and/or a direct ancestor to the earliest claimed representative of Homo (i.e., Ledi-Geraru). We find that the last appearance of Ar. ramidus falls within the origination CI of Au. anamensis-afarensis, whereas the claimed first appearance of Homo postdates the extinction CI. These results are consistent with Homo evolving from Au. anamensis-afarensis, but temporal overlap between Ar. ramidus and Au. anamensis-afarensis cannot be rejected at this time. Though additional samples are needed, future research should extend our initial analyses to incorporate the uncertainties surrounding the range endpoints of Ar. ramidus and earliest Homo. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the appearances and disappearances of hominin taxa in order to better understand the timing of evolutionary events in our clade\'s history.

In Poland, lake minnow (Eupallasella percnurus Pall.) inhabit 160 sites, including 44 in the eastern part of the country. Their habitats are mainly small and shallow peat holes vulnerable to complete destruction due to being dried or overgrown. Such processes are regularly observed, with ~ 60% of sites having vanished since the 1950s. Therefore, this species is one of the most endangered fish species from the Cyprinidae family in Polish inland waters. A GIS approach was adopted to fully analyze their habitat loss. The habitat area was marked in four time periods (from the 1960s to 2018) in reference to 26 sites composed of 111 reservoirs and representing almost 60% of all those documented in Eastern Poland. On this basis, the rate at which the habitat will vanish and the predicted time when this will happen were calculated. The results showed that the mean vanishing rate oscillates between 1 and 2% of the area per year for 50% of the analyzed sites (N = 13). For three sites (11%), this value does not exceed 1% of each area per year and is higher than 2% for the rest of the sites (39%). The results indicate that if the process of overgrowing and shallowing is not stopped, 58% of the analyzed sites will disappear in the next 50 years (including 8 (31%) in the next 20 years). This trend may lead to a serious decline in the species population or even its extinction in the next decades. Passive protection has proven to be insufficient in preserving lake minnow habitats. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake decisive protection action, as proposed in this manuscript.

Taxonomy is the cornerstone of extinction risk assessments. Currently, the IUCN Red List treats species complexes either under a single overarching species name-resulting in an unhelpfully broad circumscription and underestimated threat assessment that does not apply to any one species lineage-or omits them altogether-resulting in the omission of species that should be assessed. We argue that taxonomic uncertainty alone, as in species complexes, should be grounds for assessment as Data Deficient (DD). Yet, use of the DD category is currently discouraged, resulting in assessments based on poor data quality and dismissal of the importance of taxonomic confidence in conservation. This policy may be leading to volatile and unwarranted assessments of hundreds of species across the world, and needs to be revised. To illustrate this point, we here present a partial taxonomic revision of torrent frogs from eastern Madagascar in the Mantidactylus subgenus Hylobatrachus. Two named species, Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) lugubris and M. (H.) cowanii, and several undescribed candidate species are recognised, but the application of the available names has been somewhat ambiguous. In a recent re-assessment of its conservation status, M. (H.) lugubris was assessed including all complex members except M. (H.) cowanii within its distribution, giving it a status of Least Concern and distribution over most of eastern Madagascar. After describing two of the unnamed lineages as Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) atsimo sp. nov. (from southeastern Madagascar) and Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) petakorona sp. nov. (from the Marojejy Massif in northeastern Madagascar), we show that Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) lugubris is restricted to the central east of Madagascar, highlighting the inaccuracy of its current Red List assessment. We propose to re-assess its status under a more restrictive definition that omits well-defined candidate species, thus representing the actual species to which its assessment refers, to the best of current knowledge. We recommend that for species complexes in general, (1) nominal lineages that can be confidently restricted should be assessed under the strict definition, (2) non-nominal species-level lineages and ambiguous names should be prioritised for taxonomic research, and (3) ambiguous names should be assessed as DD to highlight the deficiency in data on their taxonomic status, which is an impediment to their conservation. This would reduce ambiguity and underestimation of threats involved in assessing species complexes, and place the appropriate emphasis on the importance of taxonomy in anchoring conservation.

We have developed a protocol for reconstructing 3D models of the skulls of extinct species of small mammals. For the first time, the reconstruction uses fragments of fossils from a mixture of different specimens and from related extant species. We use free software and commercial computers to make the process reproducible and usable for the scientific community. We present a semi-quantitative protocol to face the problem of making 3D reconstructions of fossil species that are incomplete in the fossil record and/or represented by a mixture of different individuals, as usually occurs with small vertebrates. Therefore this approach is useful when no complete skull is available. The protocol combines the use of microCT scan technology with a subsequent computer treatment using different software tools for 3D reconstruction from microCT and 3D design and printing (e.g. Fiji, SPIERS, Meshlab, Meshmixer) in a defined order. This kind of free and relatively simple software, plus the detailed description, makes this protocol practicable for researchers who do not necessarily have great deal of experience in working with 3D. As an example, we have performed virtual reconstructions of the skulls of two species of insectivore small mammals (Eulipotyphla): Beremendia fissidens and Dolinasorex glyphodon. The resulting skulls, plus models of the extant shrews Blarina brevicauda, Neomys fodiens, Crocidura russula and Sorex coronatus, make it possible to compare characteristics that can only be observed by means of microCT 3D reconstructions, and given the characteristics of the material, using this protocol. Among the characters we can compare are the position of the mandibles, the spatial relations among all the teeth, the shape of the snout and, in general, all parameters related with the anatomy of the rostrum. Moreover, these reconstructions can be used in different types of context: for anatomical purposes, especially to see internal features or characteristics at whole-skull scale, for bioengineering, animation, or other techniques that need a digital model.

Melanosuchus niger (Crocodylia, Alligatoroidea) is one of the six living caimanine species widely distributed throughout the Amazon River basin today. Although there is only one extant species of Melanosuchus, fossil material assigned to this genus, represented by M. fisheri, has been reported from the late Miocene in South America. However, the validity of this taxon has been questioned and a recent investigation indicates that the referred specimen of M. fisheri (MCZ 4336) actually belongs to Globidentosuchus brachyrostris, while those diagnostic characters present in the holotype (MCNC 243) fall into the spectrum of intraspecific variation of M. niger. Here, we compare the skull shape of the holotype of M. fisheri with the ontogenetic series of the four jacarean species (M. niger, Caiman yacare, Caiman crocodilus, and Caiman latirostris) using 2D-geometric morphometric analyses in two different views. The analyses indicate that MCNC 243 falls into the morphospace of M. niger and C. latirostris. Despite strong shape similarities between juveniles of C. latirostris and MCNC 243, further anatomical comparisons reveal notable differences between them. In contrast, no concrete anatomical differences can be found between MCNC 243 and M. niger, although shape analyses indicate that MCNC 243 is relatively robust for its size. Thus, this study is able to confirm that the genus Melanosuchus was present in the late Miocene, but it still remains unclear if MCNC 243 should be treated as a junior synonym or probably a sister species of M. niger. Its Miocene age favors the second option, but as the shape analyses were also not able to extract any diagnostic characters, it should be retained as Melanosuchus cf. niger.

Losing a species from a community can cause further extinctions, a process also known as coextinction. The risk of being extirpated with an interaction partner is commonly inferred from a species\' host-breadth, derived from observing interactions between species. But observational data suffers from imperfect detection, making coextinction estimates highly unreliable. To address this issue and to account for data uncertainty, we fit a hierarchical N-mixture model to individual-level interaction data from a mutualistic network. We predict (1) with how many interaction partners each species interacts (to indicate their coextinction risk) and (2) how completely the community was sampled. We fit the model to simulated interactions to investigate how variation in sampling effort, interaction probability, and animal abundances influence model accuracy and apply it to an empirical dataset of flowering plants and their insect visitors. The model performed well in predicting the number of interaction partners for scenarios with high abundances, but indicated high parameter uncertainty for networks with many rare species. Yet, model predictions were generally closer to the true value than the observations. Our mutualistic plant-insect community most closely resembled the scenario of high interaction rates with low abundances. Median estimates of interaction partners were frequently much higher than the empirical data indicate, but uncertainty was high. Our analysis suggested that we only detected 14-59% of the flower-visiting insect species, indicating that our study design, which is common for pollinator studies, was inadequate to detect many species. Imperfect detection strongly affects the inferences from observed interaction networks and hence, host specificity, specialisation estimates and network metrics from observational data may be highly misleading for assessing a species\' coextinction risks. Our study shows how models can help to estimate coextinction risk, but also indicates the need for better data (i.e., intensified sampling and individual-level observations) to reduce uncertainty.