随着全球土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)和气候变化,典型喀斯特地区的生态恢复力已成为人们关注的焦点。其未来发展趋势及其对自然和人为因素的空间响应对于理解生态脆弱区对人类行为的变化至关重要。然而,还缺乏相关的定量研究。该研究系统分析了近20年来中国西南地区典型喀斯特LULC变化的特征。借鉴景观生态学研究范式,建立了潜在-弹性-稳定性ER评估模型。揭示了空间分布的特征和异质性,年度演变,在过去和未来不同的共享社会经济途径和代表性集中途径(SSP-RCP)情景下,ER的发展趋势。此外,利用空间计量经济模型揭示了ER的空间效应响应机制,提出了促进西南地区可持续发展的适应性发展战略。研究发现:(1)在过去的20年里,中国西南地区的LULC呈加速变化趋势,ER总体下降,并且存在显著的空间异质性,显示了“西比东大”的空间分布格局,南方比北方大,西部的减少速度比东部慢。\“(2)在相同的SSP方案下,随着RCP排放浓度的增加,最低复原力的区域显著增加,弹性最高的区域减少了。(3)林地是西南地区单位面积ER的最大贡献者,草地是主要的LULC类型,这对研究区域的ER有显著影响。(4)平均降水量和归一化植被指数(NDVI)是研究区ER的显著自然驱动因素,和经济增长,创新,产业结构的优化促进了西南地区的ER。总的来说,定量评估和基于多情景的建模的集成不仅为理解变化模式和响应机制提供了新的视角,同时也为世界其他典型喀斯特地区实现可持续发展提供了有价值的参考。
With the global land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change, the ecological resilience (ER) in typical Karst areas has become the focus of attention. Its future development trend and its spatial response to natural and anthropogenic factors are crucial for understanding the changes of ecologically fragile areas to human behavior. However, there is still a lack of relevant quantitative research. The study systematically analyzed the characteristics of LULC changes in Southwest
China with typical Karst over the past 20 years. Drawing on the landscape ecology research paradigm, a potential-elasticity-stability ER assessment model was constructed. Revealing the characteristics and heterogeneity of the spatial distribution, annual evolution, and development trend of ER in the past and under different scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) in the future. In addition, the spatial econometric model was utilized to reveal the spatial effect response mechanism of ER, and adaptive development strategies were proposed to promote the sustainable development of Southwest
China. The study found that : (1) In the past 20 years, the LULC in Southwest
China showed an accelerated change trend, the ER decreased declined in general, and there was significant spatial heterogeneity, showing the spatial distribution pattern of \"west is larger than east, south is larger than north, and reduction in the west was slower than that in the east.\" (2) Under the same SSP scenario, with the increase of RCP emission concentration, the area of the lowest-resilience increased significantly, and the area of the highest-resilience decreased. (3) The woodland was the largest contributor to ER per unit area in the Southwest
China, and grassland was the main LULC type, which had a prominent impact on the ER of the study area. (4) The average precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were significant natural drivers of ER in the study area, and the economic growth, innovation, and optimization of industrial structure contributed to the ER of Southwest
China. Overall, the integration of quantitative assessment and multi-scenario-based modeling not only provides new perspectives for understanding the pattern of change and response mechanisms, but also provides valuable references for other typical Karst regions around the world to achieve sustainable development.