Predictive value

预测值
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:分析2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者膀胱功能障碍的相关危险因素,构建糖尿病膀胱功能障碍(DBD)的早期预测模型。
    方法:我们纳入深圳医院内分泌科住院的T2DM患者,南方医科大学,深圳,中国,从2019年1月到2022年。双变量分析中与DBD相关的因素包括在多变量逻辑回归分析中,p<0.05。采用多因素logistic回归分析确定独立危险因素并构建预测模型。预测模型以模型公式表示。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评价上述危险因素的预测值和DBD的预测模型。通过Boostrap重采样1000次对该模型进行了内部验证。
    结果:这项研究纳入了211例患者,分为DBD组(n=101)和非DBD组(n=110)。八个变量在双变量分析中显示出显着意义,包括年龄,糖尿病周围神经病变(DPN),糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c),尿微量白蛋白(mALB),红细胞计数(RBC),白细胞计数(WBC),中性粒细胞绝对计数(ANC),单核细胞百分比(Mono%)。此外,多因素logistic回归分析显示年龄(OR[95%CI]:1.077[1.042-1.112]),p<0.001;DPN(OR[95%CI]:2.373[1.013-5.561]),p=0.047;HbA1c(OR[95%CI]:1.170[1.029-1.330]),p=0.017和ANC(OR[95%CI]:1.234[1.059-1.438]),p=0.007是DBD的独立危险因素。预测模型公式为Logit(p)=-6.611+0.074年龄+0.864DPN+0.157HbA1c+0.078ANC。4个危险因素的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.676、0.582、0.618和0.674。预测模型预测DBD的准确性高于单个风险因素,AUC=0.817(95%CI:0.757-0.877),敏感性和特异性分别为88.1%和50.0%,分别。模型内部验证结果显示,AUC=0.804(95%CI:0.707-0.901),校准曲线接近理想对角线。
    结论:年龄,DPN,HbA1c,ANC是DBD的危险因素。基于4个危险因素构建的预测模型对DBD的发生具有较好的预测价值。
    OBJECTIVE: To analyze risk factors associated with bladder dysfunction in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to construct a prediction model for early prediction of diabetic bladder dysfunction (DBD).
    METHODS: We included hospitalized patients with T2DM from the endocrinology department of Shenzhen Hospital, Southern Medical University, Shenzhen, China, from January 2019 to 2022. Factors associated with DBD in bivariate analysis with a p < 0.05 were included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine independent risk factors and to construct a prediction model. The prediction model was presented as the model formula. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of the above risk factors and the prediction model for DBD. The model was internally verified by Boostrap resampling 1000 times.
    RESULTS: Two hundred and eleven patients were included in this study, and they were divided into the DBD group (n = 101) and the non-DBD group (n = 110). Eight variables showed significant significance in the bivariate analysis, including age, diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), urinary microalbumin (mALB), red blood cell count (RBC), white blood cell count (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), percentage of monocyte (Mono%). Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age (OR [95% CI]: 1.077 [1.042-1.112]), p < 0.001; DPN (OR [95% CI]: 2.373 [1.013-5.561]), p = 0.047; HbA1c (OR [95% CI]: 1.170 [1.029-1.330]), p = 0.017 and ANC (OR [95% CI]: 1.234 [1.059-1.438]), p = 0.007 were independent risk factors for the DBD. The prediction model formula was Logit (p) = -6.611 + 0.074 age + 0.864 DPN + 0.157 HbA 1 c + 0.078 ANC. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the four risk factors were 0.676, 0.582, 0.618, and 0.674, respectively. The prediction model predicted DBD with higher accuracy than the individual risk factors, AUC = 0.817 (95% CI: 0.757-0.877), and the sensitivity and specificity were 88.1% and 50.0%, respectively. The model internal validation results showed that the AUC = 0.804 (95% CI: 0.707-0.901), and the calibration curve is close to the ideal diagonal line.
    CONCLUSIONS: Age, DPN, HbA1c, and ANC were risk factors for DBD. The prediction model constructed based on the four risk factors had a good predictive value for predicting the occurrence of DBD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:全身炎症评分(SIS),基于血清白蛋白(Alb)和淋巴细胞与单核细胞比率(LMR),是一些肿瘤的一种新的预后工具。研究表明,SIS可作为术后预后指标。然而,其在接受放疗的老年食管鳞状细胞癌(ESCC)患者中的预测价值尚不清楚.
    方法:总共,纳入166例接受放疗或不接受化疗的老年ESCC患者。基于Alb和LMR水平的不同组合,SIS分为3组,SIS=0(n=79),SIS=1(n=71)和SIS=2(n=16)。采用Kaplan-Meier法进行生存分析。进行单因素和多因素分析以评估预后。时间依赖性受试者工作特征(t-ROC)曲线用于比较SIS与Alb的预后准确性,LMR,中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比率(NLR),血小板与淋巴细胞比率(PLR),和全身免疫炎症指数(SII)。
    结果:Alb和LMR降低均与OS缩短有关,而较低的SIS与较好的结局显著相关.SIS=0、SIS=1和SIS=2的OS分别为28.0±2.9、16.0±2.8和10.0±7.0个月,分别为(p=0.000)。对于PFS也观察到类似的结果。SIS模型的多变量分析显示,SIS是预测OS和PFS的重要独立生物标志物。列线图显示,当纳入SIS因子时,C指数提高到0.677。此外,SIS高组(SIS=1和SIS=2)接受单一药物同步放疗(CCRT-1)和两种药物同步放疗(CCRT-2)的患者的3年OS率分别为42%和15%,分别(p=0.039)。t-ROC曲线显示SIS比其他预后因素对预测总生存期更敏感。
    结论:SIS可能是接受单纯放疗或放化疗的老年ESCC患者的有用预后指标。SIS显示出比连续变量Alb更好的OS预测能力,并且可以在不同的治疗方案中对患者预后进行分层。CCRT-1可能是SIS高患者的最佳治疗方法。
    BACKGROUND: The systemic inflammation score (SIS), based on serum albumin (Alb) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), is a novel prognostic tool for some tumours. Studies indicate that the SIS can be used as a postoperative prognostic marker. However, its predictive value in elderly oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with radiotherapy is unclear.
    METHODS: In total, 166 elderly ESCC patients who received radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy were included. Based on different combinations of Alb and LMR levels, the SIS was divided into 3 groups, SIS = 0 (n = 79), SIS = 1 (n = 71) and SIS = 2 (n = 16). The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess prognosis. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curves were used to compare the prognostic accuracy of the SIS with that of Alb, LMR, neutrophil-to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII).
    RESULTS: Decreased Alb and LMR were both associated with shorter OS, whereas a lower SIS was significantly associated with better outcomes. The OS of SIS = 0, SIS = 1 and SIS = 2 was 28.0 ± 2.9, 16.0 ± 2.8 and 10.0 ± 7.0 months, respectively (p = 0.000). Similar results were also observed for PFS. Multivariate analysis of the model with SIS revealed that the SIS was a significant independent biomarker for predicting OS and PFS. The nomogram showed that the C-index was improved to 0.677 when the SIS factor was incorporated. Furthermore, the 3-year OS rates for patients in the SIS-high group (SIS = 1 and SIS = 2) undergoing concurrent radiotherapy with a single agent (CCRT-1) and concurrent radiotherapy with two agents (CCRT-2) were 42% and 15%, respectively (p = 0.039). The t-ROC curve showed that the SIS was more sensitive than other prognostic factors for predicting overall survival.
    CONCLUSIONS: The SIS may be a useful prognostic marker in elderly patients with ESCC receiving radiotherapy alone or chemoradiotherapy. The SIS showed a better predictive ability for OS than the continuous variable Alb and could stratify patient prognosis in different therapeutic regimens. CCRT-1 may be the best treatment for SIS-high patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    探讨孕早期妊娠相关血浆蛋白A(PAPP-A)的相关性及预测价值,母性因素,中国南方母亲妊娠期糖尿病(GDM)的生化指标。
    这项研究招募了4872名孕妇。PAPP-A,人绒毛膜促性腺激素的游离β亚基(游离β-HCG),空腹血糖(FPG),总胆固醇(TC),甘油三酯(TG),和高密度和低密度脂蛋白(高密度脂蛋白,LDL)在妊娠11-13周测量。在妊娠24-28周时,根据75g口服葡萄糖耐量试验诊断GDM。我们进行了逐步逻辑回归分析,以确定GDM的比值比(OR)和95%置信区间(CI)。我们使用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和曲线下面积(AUC)来评估PAPP-A的预测价值,母性因素,和生化标记。使用DeLong检验评估AUC值之间差异的显著性。
    在750名(15.39%)女性中诊断为GDM。GDM的独立因素是年龄,孕前BMI,GWG在诊断GDM之前,GDM的历史,糖尿病家族史,FPG,TG,LDL,PAPP-A,和TC。PAPP-A的AUC为0.56(95%CI0.53-0.58)。基于合并母体因素的模型的AUC,生化标志物,PAPP-A为0.70(95%CI0.68-0.72)。单独使用PAPP-A与基于合并母体因素的模型之间的AUC值差异,生化标志物,与PAPP-A比较,差异有统计学意义(Z=9.983,P<0.001)。
    孕早期血清PAPP-A水平低是妊娠后期发生GDM的独立危险因素。然而,尽管低血清PAPP-A水平与母体因素和生化标志物相结合时的预测价值增加,但这并不是一个很好的独立预测因子.
    UNASSIGNED: To investigate the relationship and predictive value of first-trimester pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), maternal factors, and biochemical parameters with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in southern China mothers.
    UNASSIGNED: This study recruited 4872 pregnant women. PAPP-A, the free beta subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (free β-HCG), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), and high- and low-density lipoproteins (HDL, LDL) were measured at 11-13+ weeks of gestation. GDM was diagnosed based on a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test at 24-28 weeks of gestation. We performed stepwise logistic regression analysis to determine the odds ratio (OR) and the 95% confidence interval (CI) of GDM. We used Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves with the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the predictive value of PAPP-A, maternal factors, and biochemical markers. The significance of the differences between the AUC values was assessed using the DeLong test.
    UNASSIGNED: GDM was diagnosed in 750 (15.39%) women. Independent factors for GDM were age, pre-gestational BMI, GWG before a diagnosis of GDM, previous history of GDM, family history of diabetes, FPG, TG, LDL, PAPP-A, and TC. The AUC of PAPP-A was 0.56 (95% CI 0.53-0.58). The AUC of a model based on combined maternal factors, biochemical markers, and PAPP-A was 0.70 (95% CI 0.68-0.72). Differences in AUC values between PAPP-A alone and the model based on combined maternal factors, biochemical markers, and PAPP-A were statistically significant (Z= 9.983, P<0.001).
    UNASSIGNED: A Low serum PAPP-A level in the first trimester is an independent risk factor for developing GDM later in pregnancy. However, it is not a good independent predictor although the predictive value of a low serum PAPP-A level increases when combined with maternal factors and biochemical markers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于替诺福韦二磷酸(TFV-DP)在干血斑(DBS)中的实用性,以预测抗逆转录病毒治疗(ART)的产后妇女中未来的病毒载量(VL)的数据很少。
    我们在一项产后ART分娩策略试验中进行了一项巢式病例对照研究。参与者在怀孕期间开始含有富马酸替诺福韦酯(TDF)的ART,产后<10周,并且具有<400拷贝/mL的VL。在24个月内每3-6个月采集VL和TFV-DP样品。病例有≥1个VL≥20拷贝/mL;对照组从具有持续性病毒抑制(VS;VL<20拷贝/mL)的女性中随机抽样。使用广义估计方程根据先前就诊时的TFV-DP浓度计算未来VL≥20拷贝/mL的似然优势比(LOR)。
    61例和20例对照贡献了365个DBS-VL对(中位ART持续时间,16个月)。TFV-DP<700fmol/punch检测未来病毒血症的敏感性和特异性分别为62.9%(95%CI,54.7-70.6%)和89.7%(84.9-93.4%),分别。调整年龄,ART持续时间,以前的VL,以及TFV-DP和VL测量之间的持续时间,TFV-DP浓度350-699和<350fmol/punch与TFV-DP≥1850fmol/punch的病毒血症的LOR分别为3.5(95%CI,1.1-10.8;P=.033)和12.9(3.6-46.6;P<.0001),分别。仅包括VS期间采集的样本,TFV-DP浓度<350fmol/punch与TFV-DP≥1850fmol/punch的未来病毒血症的LOR为9.5(1.9-47.0).
    DBS中的TFV-DP浓度与未来的病毒血症密切相关,并且似乎可用于识别不依从性和预测未来的VL升高。
    There are few data on the utility of tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) in dried blood spots (DBSs) to predict future viral load (VL) in postpartum women with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART).
    We conducted a nested case-control study within a trial of postpartum ART delivery strategies. Participants started ART containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in pregnancy, were <10 weeks postpartum, and had a VL <400 copies/mL. VL and TFV-DP samples were taken every 3-6 months over 24 months. Cases had ≥1 VL ≥20 copies/mL; controls were randomly sampled from women with persistent viral suppression (VS; VL <20 copies/mL). Generalized estimating equations were used to calculate likelihood odds ratios (LORs) for future VL ≥20 copies/mL by TFV-DP concentration at the preceding visit.
    61 cases and 20 controls contributed 365 DBS-VL pairs (median ART duration, 16 months). Sensitivity and specificity of TFV-DP <700 fmol/punch to detect future viremia were 62.9% (95% CI, 54.7-70.6%) and 89.7% (84.9-93.4%), respectively. Adjusting for age, ART duration, previous VL, and duration between the TFV-DP and VL measures, LORs of viremia for TFV-DP concentrations 350-699 and <350 fmol/punch versus TFV-DP ≥1850 fmol/punch were 3.5 (95% CI, 1.1-10.8; P = .033) and 12.9 (3.6-46.6; P < .0001), respectively. Including only samples taken during VS, the LOR of future viremia for TFV-DP concentration <350 fmol/punch versus TFV-DP ≥1850 fmol/punch was 9.5 (1.9-47.0).
    TFV-DP concentrations in DBSs were strongly associated with future viremia and appear useful to identify nonadherence and predict future elevated VL.
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  • 文章类型: Letter
    暂无摘要。
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在临床实践中,最终发展为先兆子痫(PE)的女性常发生异常生化变化.该研究旨在探讨孕早期孕妇血清生化指标是否可以预测PE和新生儿出生体重。
    对287名随后发展为PE的女性(轻度=139;重度=148)和143名健康女性进行了回顾性病例对照研究。在妊娠早期(28.49±1.63周)抽取所有孕妇的空腹静脉血样本进行常规生化指标筛查。选择合适的统计学方法,用SPSS软件进行分析。
    (1)血浆甘油三酯(TG)的浓度,低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL),与正常妊娠组的相应水平相比,PE组的重度和轻度亚组的尿酸(UA)显着升高(3.90vs.4.03vs.3.14mmol/L;3.41vs.3.33vs.2.89mmol/L;365.42vs.318.91vs.284.69μmol/L;p<0.0001)。PE组血清钙水平显著低于对照组(2.10vs.2.18vs.2.22mmol/L;p<0.0001)。(2)利用受试者工作特性曲线估计各标志物筛查PE的诊断率,最高的灵敏度出现在TG的组合,总胆固醇(TC),LDL,高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL),LDL/HDL,UA,Ca2+,和高半胱氨酸(HCY)(79%)。UA的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.70,在这8个标记中最高,但8-标记组合模型的AUC(0.85)具有更好的诊断指征.(3)在体育,最大收缩压/舒张压与血清UA呈正相关(r=0.212/0.205,p<0.0001),与血清总钙呈负相关(r=-0.193/-0.196,p=0.001)。PE组新生儿出生体重与血清TG水平(r=0.141,p=0.017)和血清总钙水平(r=0.221,p<0.0001)呈正相关,与UA水平呈负相关(r=-0.265,p<0.0001)。
    个体标记在预测PE方面确实表现得很糟糕。这些参数的联合监测和评估可以提高筛查效率,以早期预测PE和胎儿生长不良。
    In clinical practice, abnormal biochemical changes often occur in women who eventually develop preeclampsia (PE). The study aims to investigate whether maternal serum biochemical markers in the early third trimester can predict PE and neonatal birth weight.
    A retrospective case-control study was performed on 287 women who subsequently developed PE (mild = 139; severe = 148) and 143 healthy women. Fasting venous blood samples of all gravidas were drawn for routine biochemical markers screening in the early third trimester (28.49 ± 1.63 weeks). Appropriate statistical methods were selected for analysis with SPSS software.
    (1) The concentrations of plasma triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and uric acid (UA) in the severe and mild subgroups of the PE group were significantly higher compared with the respective levels in the normal pregnancy groups (3.90 vs. 4.03 vs. 3.14 mmol/L; 3.41 vs. 3.33 vs. 2.89 mmol/L; 365.42 vs. 318.91 vs. 284.69 μmol/L; p < 0.0001). Serum calcium levels in PE group were significantly lower than those in control group (2.10 vs. 2.18 vs. 2.22 mmol/L; p < 0.0001). (2) By using the receiver operating characteristic curve to estimate the diagnosis rate of screening for PE of each marker, the highest sensitivity appeared by the combination of TG, total cholesterol (TC), LDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), LDL/HDL, UA, Ca2+, and homocysteine (HCY) (79%). The area under curve (AUC) of UA was 0.70, which was the highest among these eight markers, but the AUC of an eight-marker combination model (0.85) had a better diagnostic indication. (3) In PE, the maximum systolic/diastolic blood pressure was significantly positively correlated with serum UA (r = 0.212/0.205, p < 0.0001); and negatively correlated with serum total calcium (r = -0.193/-0.196, p = 0.001). The neonatal birth weight of PE group had a positive correlation with serum TG levels (r = 0.141, p = 0.017) and serum total calcium levels (r = 0.221, p < 0.0001), and a negative correlation with UA levels (r = -0.265, p < 0.0001).
    The individual marker really performs terrible in predicting PE. Joint monitoring and evaluation of these parameters may improve the screening efficiency for the prediction of PE and poor fetal growth early.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    使用影像学报告以及入院和出院诊断的电子匿名患者门户分析具有敏感性,特异性,正预测值,阴性预测值为84.7%,78.2%,75%,87%,分别,针对社区获得性肺炎,通过盲法专家医学审查进行了验证.这种方法可以帮助追踪抗微生物剂的使用和耐药性。
    An electronic anonymized patient portal analysis using radiographic reports and admission and discharge diagnoses had sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 84.7%, 78.2%, 75%, and 87%, respectively, for community-acquired pneumonia validated against a blinded expert medical review. This approach can help to track antimicrobial use and resistance.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), and to determine whether PAPP-A has improved value for predicting GDM in a Chinese population.
    METHODS: Clinical data for 599 GDM patients and 986 unaffected pregnant women undergoing both antenatal examinations and delivery were retrospectively analyzed. First-trimester serum PAPP-A levels were compared between the groups. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors for GDM, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the value of PAPP-A for predicting GDM.
    RESULTS: GDM-affected and unaffected pregnant women were significantly different in terms of age (P < 0.001), BMI (P < 0.001), family history of diabetes (P = 0.002), α-thalassemia trait (P < 0.01), parity (P < 0.001), conception methods (P < 0.001), gestational weeks at the time of labor (P < 0.001) and corrected PAPP-A multiples of the median values (P < 0.001). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that PAPP-A levels were negatively related to the subsequent development of GDM (odds ratio 0.798, 95% confidence interval 0.647-0.984). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for maternal factors was 0.684 (95% CI: 0.657-0.711), and did not significantly differ from that for the combination of maternal factors and serum PAPP-A levels, which was 0.686 (95% CI: 0.660-0.713; χ2 = 0.625, P = 0.429).
    CONCLUSIONS: Serum PAPP-A was an independent factor for the development of GDM in pregnant Chinese women. Serum-PAPP-A does not have improved value with respect to predicting GDM when combined with other maternal factors.
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