Disease Eradication

疾病根除
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    冲突和暴力对公众健康构成威胁。随着国家内部和国家之间冲突程度的增加,重要的是探索如何调整解决冲突的举措以满足社区的健康需求,以及如何解决社区的卫生需求可以帮助解决冲突并促进卫生安全。在受冲突影响的马里中部,a通过健康实现和平倡议,2018年至2022年试点,使用解决冲突培训,促进社区会议,和人类和动物健康干预措施谈判“安宁期”,以实现公共卫生目标。项目活动改善了健康状况,改善生计,减少暴力,提高利益相关者之间的信任,社区成员更多地参与和平与健康决策。和平健康倡议产生了与和平健康方案拟订的三个阶段有关的一些经验教训:干预前,程序开发,和执行。这些经验教训可用于通过马里境内的卫生倡议支持扩大和平,可以适应其他受冲突影响的环境,并应结合全球卫生安全的实施加以考虑。
    Conflict and violence constitute threats to public health. As levels of conflict increase within and between countries, it is important to explore how conflict resolution initiatives can be adapted to meet the health needs of communities, and how addressing the health needs of communities can assist in conflict resolution and contribute to health security. In conflict-affected central Mali, a Peace through Health Initiative, piloted between 2018 and 2022, used conflict resolution trainings, facilitated community meetings, and human and animal health interventions to negotiate \"periods of tranquility\" to achieve public health goals. Project activities resulted in improved health, improved livelihoods, reduced violence, improved trust among stakeholders, and greater inclusion of community members in peace and health decisionmaking. The Peace-Health Initiative generated several lessons learned related to 3 phases of peace-health programming: preintervention, program development, and implementation. These lessons can be applied to support expanded Peace through Health Initiatives within Mali, may be adaptable to other conflict-afflicted contexts, and should be considered in relation to the implementation of global health security.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)感染是一个全球性的公共卫生问题,全世界有2.57亿人患有慢性HBV感染。在本文中,我们研究了具有媒体报道和饱和发病率的随机HBV传播模型的动力学。首先,证明了随机模型正解的存在性和唯一性。然后获得HBV感染消失的条件,这意味着,媒体的报道有助于控制疾病的传播和噪声强度对急性和慢性HBV感染起到了关键的作用。此外,我们验证了该系统在一定条件下具有独特的平稳分布,从生物学的角度来看,这种疾病将占上风。进行了数值模拟,以直观地说明我们的理论结果。作为一个案例研究,我们将我们的模型拟合到2005年至2021年中国大陆可用的乙型肝炎数据。
    Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a global public health problem and there are 257 million people living with chronic HBV infection throughout the world. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a stochastic HBV transmission model with media coverage and saturated incidence rate. Firstly, we prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solution for the stochastic model. Then the condition on the extinction of HBV infection is obtained, which implies that media coverage helps to control the disease spread and the noise intensities on the acute and chronic HBV infection play a key role in disease eradication. Furthermore, we verify that the system has a unique stationary distribution under certain conditions, and the disease will prevail from the biological perspective. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate our theoretical results intuitively. As a case study, we fit our model to the available hepatitis B data of mainland China from 2005 to 2021.
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  • 文章类型: News
    尽管最近的挑战,根除脊髓灰质炎非常接近。加里·汉弗莱斯报道。
    Despite recent challenges, polio eradication is tantalizingly close. Gary Humphreys reports.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:疟疾仍然是南非的公共卫生问题。虽然这种疾病主要局限于九个省份中的三个,大多数本地传播是由于从邻国输入病例而发生的。南非政府重申了在其境内消除疟疾的承诺。为了支持这一目标的实现,本研究通过模拟旨在在10年内实现消除疟疾的不同情景,对南非消除疟疾的成本效益进行了分析.
    方法:开发了一种动态数学传递模型,以估算2018年至2030年南非消除疟疾的成本和收益。该模型模拟了一系列疟疾干预措施,并估计了它们对2018年至2030年在林波波三个流行省份传播恶性疟原虫疟疾的影响。姆普马兰加和夸祖鲁-纳塔尔。地方财政,经济,和流行病学数据用于校准传播模型。
    结果:基于三个主要的模拟场景:加速和减少来源,总经济负担估计如下:对于正常情况下的业务,在11年期间(2018-2029年),南非疟疾的总经济负担为36.9亿雷亚尔(2.233亿美元).疟疾的经济负担估计为48.8亿兰特(2.955亿美元)和加速和源头减少情景的63.4亿兰特(约3.84亿美元),分别。成本和收益以2020年年中的值表示。如果采用减少来源战略来帮助降低莫桑比克南部的疟疾发病率,预计所有三个省都将消除疟疾。这可以通过将南非当地的年度发病率限制在不到1例土著病例来实现,并预测到2026年将实现这一目标。
    结论:在南非消除疟疾是可行的,在经济上是值得的,并保证了积极的投资回报(ROI)。这项研究的结果表明,通过为南非和邻国莫桑比克的流行地区拟议的疟疾干预措施获得资金,全国淘汰可以在8年内实现。
    BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost-benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period.
    METHODS: A dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model.
    RESULTS: Based on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018-2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026.
    CONCLUSIONS: Malaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在拉丁美洲,在消除犬狂犬病方面取得了巨大进展。导致这些成功的狂犬病消除计划的主要组成部分是对狂犬病犬进行持续和定期的监测以及每年不间断的大规模狗疫苗接种运动。不幸的是,控制COVID-19的重要措施有负面的权衡,即危害这些狂犬病的消除和预防活动。我们旨在评估中断犬狂犬病监测和大规模犬疫苗接种运动对狂犬病趋势的影响。我们建立了狗狂犬病动力学的确定性隔室模型,以创建不同破坏如何影响狂犬病病毒传播的概念框架。我们为阿雷基帕的条件参数化了模型,秘鲁,狂犬病病毒传播活跃的城市。我们检查了R0(1.36-2.0)的合理值范围内的结果。此外,我们前瞻性评估了大流行期间的监测数据,以检测时间变化.我们的模型表明,犬疫苗接种覆盖率的降低以及监测的减少可能导致犬狂犬病在几个月内急剧上升。这些结果在R0的所有似是而非的值上是一致的。2020年底和2021年初的监测数据证实,在阿雷基帕,秘鲁,狂犬病病例呈上升趋势。阿雷基帕狂犬病上升趋势,如果指示整个区域,表明拉丁美洲在消除狗介导的人类狂犬病方面取得的成就可能处于危险之中。
    In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36-2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The existence of locations with low but stable onchocerciasis prevalence is not well understood. An often suggested yet poorly investigated explanation is that the infection spills over from neighbouring locations with higher infection densities.
    We adapted the stochastic individual based model ONCHOSIM to enable the simulation of multiple villages, with separate blackfly (intermediate host) and human populations, which are connected through the regular movement of the villagers and/or the flies. With this model we explore the impact of the type, direction and degree of connectedness, and of the impact of localized or full-area mass drug administration (MDA) over a range of connected village settings.
    In settings with annual fly biting rates (ABR) below the threshold needed for stable local transmission, persistence of onchocerciasis prevalence can well be explained by regular human traffic and/or fly movement from locations with higher ABR. Elimination of onchocerciasis will then theoretically be reached by only implementing MDA in the higher prevalence area, although lingering infection in the low prevalence location can trigger resurgence of transmission in the total region when MDA is stopped too soon. Expanding MDA implementation to the lower ABR location can therefore shorten the duration of MDA needed. For example, when prevalence spill-over is due to human traffic, and both locations have about equal populations, then the MDA duration can be shortened by up to three years. If the lower ABR location has twice as many inhabitants, the reduction can even be up to six years, but if spill-over is due to fly movement, the expected reduction is less than a year.
    Although MDA implementation might not always be necessary in locations with stable low onchocerciasis prevalence, in many circumstances it is recommended to accelerate achieving elimination in the wider area.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The scaling up of public health interventions has received greater attention in recent years; however, there remains paucity of systematic investigations of the scaling up processes. We aim to investigate the overall process, actors and contexts of polio immunization scaling up in Indonesia from 1988 until 2018.
    A mixed method study with sequential explanatory design was conducted. We carried out a quantitative survey of 323 actors involved in the polio program at national and sub-national levels, followed by Key Informant Interviews (KII)s. Document review was also carried out to construct a timeline of the polio eradication program with milestones. We carried out descriptive statistical analysis of quantitative data and thematic analysis of qualitative data.
    The scaling up of polio immunization in Indonesia started as a vertical expansion approach led by the Ministry of Health within a centralized health system. The coverage of immunization increased dramatically from 5% in the earlier 80s to 67.5% in 1987; incremental increases followed until achieving Universal Child Immunization (UCI) in 1990 and subsequently 95% coverage in 1995. Engagement of stakeholders and funding made the scaling up of polio immunization a priority. There was also substantial multisector involvement, including institutions and communities. Local area monitoring (LAM) and integrated health posts (Posyandu) were key to the polio immunization implementation strategy. Challenges for scaling up during this centralized period included cold chain infrastructure and limited experience in carrying out mass campaigns. Scaling up during the decentralized era was slower due to expansion in the number of provinces and districts. Moreover, there were challenges such as the negative perception of immunization side-effects, staff turnover, and the unsmooth transition of centralization towards decentralization.
    Vertical scaling up of polio immunization program intervention was successful during the centralized era, with involvement of the president as a role model and the engine of multi sector actors. Posyandu (integrated health posts) played an important role, yet its revitalization after the reform-decentralization era has not been optimum.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    埃斯瓦蒂尼是撒哈拉以南非洲第一个在2011年通过国家消除疟疾政策的国家,后来设定了到2020年消除疟疾的目标。本案例研究旨在回顾2012年至2019年8年间收集的Eswatini疟疾监测数据,以评估该国在2020年前消除疟疾的目标。埃斯瓦蒂尼国家疟疾方案(NMP)提供了用于病媒控制的室内残留喷洒(IRS)的覆盖率和疟疾病例数据。数据包括在所有卫生机构接受治疗的所有疟疾病例。对数据进行了描述性分析。八年来,共有5511名患者向医疗机构报告了疟疾症状。通过常规监测系统的病例调查率从2012年的50%增加到2019年的84%。每1000名风险人群的发病率多年来一直在波动,但总体上从2012年的0.70上升至2019年的1.65,2017年报告的最高发病率为3.19.IRS数据显示8年来的喷雾不一致。大多数病例是通过政府的快速诊断测试(RDT)试剂盒诊断的(87.6%),任务(89.1%),私营(87%)和公司/工业拥有的设施(84.3%),无论是单独或结合显微镜。埃斯瓦蒂尼还没有到2020年实现消除疟疾。疟疾病例仍然不断报告,尽管利率很低,偶尔有局部爆发。为了实现消除,至关重要的是,及时优化针对性强的IRS,并考虑通过包括幼虫来源管理等工具来合理扩展Eswatini的综合疟疾控制方法的工具,长效杀虫网(LLINs),蚊子屋入口点的筛查,和化学预防。建立严格的常规昆虫学监测也应优先确定当地的疟疾病媒生态,潜在的物种多样性,次级载体和杀虫剂抗性的作用。
    Eswatini was the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to pass a National Malaria Elimination Policy in 2011, and later set a target for elimination by the year 2020. This case study aimed to review the malaria surveillance data of Eswatini collected over 8 years between 2012 and 2019 to evaluate the country\'s efforts that targeted malaria elimination by 2020. Coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) for vector control and data on malaria cases were provided by the National Malaria Programme (NMP) of Eswatini. The data included all cases treated for malaria in all health facilities. The data was analysed descriptively. Over the 8 years, a total of 5511 patients reported to the health facilities with malaria symptoms. The case investigation rate through the routine surveillance system increased from 50% in 2012 to 84% in 2019. Incidence per 1000 population at risk fluctuated over the years, but in general increased from 0.70 in 2012 to 1.65 in 2019, with the highest incidence of 3.19 reported in 2017. IRS data showed inconsistency in spraying over the 8 years. Most of the cases were diagnosed by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits in government (87.6%), mission (89.1%), private (87%) and company/industry-owned facilities (84.3%), either singly or in combination with microscopy. Eswatini has fallen short of achieving malaria elimination by 2020. Malaria cases are still consistently reported, albeit at low rates, with occasional localized outbreaks. To achieve elimination, it is critical to optimize timely and well-targeted IRS and to consider rational expansion of tools for an integrated malaria control approach in Eswatini by including tools such as larval source management, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), screening of mosquito house entry points, and chemoprophylaxis. The establishment of rigorous routine entomological surveillance should also be prioritized to determine the local malaria vectors\' ecology, potential species diversity, the role of secondary vectors and insecticide resistance.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:柬埔寨剩余的恶性疟原虫病例集中在森林边境地区和偏远人群中,这些人群很难通过被动病例检测获得。接触这些人群的一个关键方法是由移动疟疾工作人员(MMWs)主动检测病例。然而,这在操作上是具有挑战性的,因为改变了转移到较难进入地区的目标人群的移动模式。从2018年1月至2020年12月,在柬埔寨东北部三个省的森林边境地区实施了一套量身定制的主动病例检测方法,以覆盖偏远人群并支持消除恶性疟疾。
    方法:该项目的关键要素是为当地人口量身定制方法,使用响应式监控系统,保持操作灵活性,与当地社区建立牢固的关系,实行严密监督。MMW是从当地社区招募的。积极的病例检测方法包括在森林周围和森林内经常出没的地方安置流动疟疾哨所,以及针对更偏远地点的当地知情外展活动。在确诊病例的共同旅行者中进行了反应性病例检测。疟疾检测独立于发热症状进行。对战术适应的方案数据进行例行监测,监督工作确保了服务质量。
    结果:尽管存在运营挑战,服务交付站点能够在整个实施期间保持始终如一的高测试率,到2020年,45个站点中的每个站点每月平均测试64人(SD6)。2020年,MMW项目仅检测到32例恶性疟原虫病例。在项目期间,恶性疟原虫/P间日比稳定反转。包括来自邻近卫生中心和乡村疟疾工作者的数据,在该地区检测到的所有患者中有45%(80,988/180,732)和39%(1280/3243)的恶性疟原虫病例可归因于MMW项目。最后一个消除阶段的剩余挑战包括继续加大消除努力,解决检测低寄生虫血症病例和将重点转移到间日疟原虫的问题。
    结论:通过主动病例检测达到偏远人群应仍然是消除恶性疟原虫疟疾的关键策略。本案例研究提出了一种成功的方法,结合了量身定制的主动和被动策略,可以将其转移到大湄公河次区域其他地区的类似环境中。
    BACKGROUND: Remaining Plasmodium falciparum cases in Cambodia are concentrated in forested border areas and in remote populations who are hard to reach through passive case detection. A key approach to reach these populations is active case detection by mobile malaria workers (MMWs). However, this is operationally challenging because of changing movement patterns of the target population moving into less accessible areas. From January 2018 to December 2020, a tailored package of active case detection approaches was implemented in forested border areas of three provinces in north-eastern Cambodia to reach remote populations and support the elimination of falciparum malaria.
    METHODS: Key elements of this project were to tailor approaches to local populations, use responsive monitoring systems, maintain operational flexibility, build strong relationships with local communities, and implement close supervision practices. MMWs were recruited from local communities. Proactive case detection approaches included mobile malaria posts positioned at frequented locations around and within forests, and locally informed outreach activities targeting more remote locations. Reactive case detection was conducted among co-travellers of confirmed cases. Testing for malaria was conducted independent of fever symptoms. Routine monitoring of programmatic data informed tactical adaptations, while supervision exercises ensured service quality.
    RESULTS: Despite operational challenges, service delivery sites were able to maintain consistently high testing rates throughout the implementation period, with each of 45 sites testing a monthly average of 64 (SD 6) people in 2020. In 2020, project MMWs detected only 32 P. falciparum cases. Over the project period, the P. falciparum/P. vivax ratio steadily inversed. Including data from neighbouring health centres and village malaria workers, 45% (80,988/180,732) of all people tested and 39% (1280/3243) of P. falciparum cases detected in the area can be attributed to project MMWs. Remaining challenges of the last elimination phase include maintaining intensified elimination efforts, addressing the issue of detecting low parasitaemia cases and shifting focus to P. vivax malaria.
    CONCLUSIONS: Reaching remote populations through active case detection should remain a key strategy to eliminate P. falciparum malaria. This case study presented a successful approach combining tailored proactive and reactive strategies that could be transferred to similar settings in other areas of the Greater Mekong Subregion.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. Community Case Management of malaria (CCMm) which is undertaken by engaging Community Health Workers (CHWs) to effectively address management of malaria cases in some endemic communities was explored in this study. The aim was to assess the needs of CHWs that would help sustain and retain their services to enhance the efficient delivery of CCMm.
    METHODS: Using semi-structured questionnaires, data on the needs of CHWs was gathered through a qualitative study consisting of in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) conducted among study participants in five districts in western Kenya. The study participants comprised of 100 CHWs, 100 mothers of children under five years and 25 key informants made up of public health officers and clinicians involved in the CCMm. The interviews were conducted in English and Swahili or Dholuo, the local language. The recorded audio interviews were transcribed later. The analysis was done using NVivo version 7 software and transcripts were coded after which themes related to the objectives of the study were identified.
    RESULTS: All the study participants recognized the need to train and update CHWs on their work as well as remunerating them for their services to enhance efficient delivery of services. The CHWs on their part perceived the provision of gloves, rapid diagnostic test kits (RDTs), lancets, cotton wool and ethanol, bins (to dispose of RDTs and lancets), together with drugs for treating clients as the essential needs to undertake CCMm in the communities. Other logistical needs and incentives mentioned by CHWs and key informants for the successful delivery of CCMm included: gumboots, raincoats, torch lights, mobile phones, means of transportation (bicycles and motorbikes), uniforms and ID cards for identification.
    CONCLUSIONS: CHWs would perform tasks better and their services retained for a sustainable CCMm if: properly incentivized; offered refresher trainings (and updates) on malaria; and equipped with the requisite tools identified in this study.
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