PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36-2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.
摘要：
在拉丁美洲,在消除犬狂犬病方面取得了巨大进展。导致这些成功的狂犬病消除计划的主要组成部分是对狂犬病犬进行持续和定期的监测以及每年不间断的大规模狗疫苗接种运动。不幸的是,控制COVID-19的重要措施有负面的权衡，即危害这些狂犬病的消除和预防活动。我们旨在评估中断犬狂犬病监测和大规模犬疫苗接种运动对狂犬病趋势的影响。我们建立了狗狂犬病动力学的确定性隔室模型，以创建不同破坏如何影响狂犬病病毒传播的概念框架。我们为阿雷基帕的条件参数化了模型，秘鲁,狂犬病病毒传播活跃的城市。我们检查了R0（1.36-2.0）的合理值范围内的结果。此外，我们前瞻性评估了大流行期间的监测数据,以检测时间变化.我们的模型表明，犬疫苗接种覆盖率的降低以及监测的减少可能导致犬狂犬病在几个月内急剧上升。这些结果在R0的所有似是而非的值上是一致的。2020年底和2021年初的监测数据证实，在阿雷基帕，秘鲁,狂犬病病例呈上升趋势。阿雷基帕狂犬病上升趋势,如果指示整个区域，表明拉丁美洲在消除狗介导的人类狂犬病方面取得的成就可能处于危险之中。
