Abstract：
Climate change potentially threatens the sustainable production of highly valued cold-water fish species in flow-through systems, such as salmonids. By analysing the relationship of water temperature to hydrological characteristics, air temperature, solar exposure, and precipitation, this study predicted temperature dynamics of five temperate cold-water aquaculture facilities under four projected climate change scenarios. Air temperature was found to be directly associated with facility site water temperature, and based on rational assumptions, two of the five facilities were predicted to face critical warming by mid-century. Extreme precipitation events induced acute short-term increases in water temperature of up to 5 °C. Significantly lower warming, roughly equal to the projected climate change-induced increase, was seen with artificial shading lowering temperature by 1 °C. Complementary niche modelling revealed that 37-77 % of current cold-water facilities will likely incur suboptimal climate conditions by the end of the century. Shading of raceways, more efficient water use, and disease management are proposed as key actions to preserve cold-water aquaculture.
摘要：
气候变化可能威胁到流通系统中高价值冷水鱼类的可持续生产，比如鲑鱼。通过分析水温与水文特性的关系,空气温度,太阳照射,和降水,这项研究预测了四种预计的气候变化情景下五个温带冷水水产养殖设施的温度动态。发现空气温度与设施现场水温直接相关，基于理性的假设，预计到本世纪中叶，这五个设施中的两个将面临严重的变暖。极端降水事件导致水温急剧短期升高至5°C。显著降低变暖，大致等于预计的气候变化引起的增长，观察到人工遮光使温度降低1°C。补充生态位模型显示，到本世纪末，当前37-77％的冷水设施可能会导致次优气候条件。跑道的阴影，更有效的用水，和疾病管理被建议作为保护冷水水产养殖的关键行动。
