Extreme precipitation event

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    持续的气候变化危机对全球公共卫生系统提出了挑战。极端天气事件后,胃肠道疾病(GI)相关住院的风险增加,但大部分报告和调查不足。这项研究评估了德克萨斯州四个主要城市的降水与胃肠道相关医院入院之间的关系。从德克萨斯州卫生服务部和国家气候数据中心获取了2004年至2014年与GI相关的住院人数和降水的每日数据。采用分布式滞后非线性建模方法来检查降水与胃肠道相关医院入院之间的关联。结果表明,在降水事件发生后的2周内,与GI相关的住院患者的累积风险比(RR)升高;然而,在研究地点之间观察到差异.当达拉斯的日降水量为3.3mm至13.5mm,休斯顿的日降水量为6.0mm至24.5mm时,胃肠道相关住院的累积RR显着升高。然而,在奥斯汀和圣安东尼奥未观察到GI相关住院的累积RR显著增加.年龄特异性和病因特异性的胃肠道相关住院也被发现与相同模式的降水事件相关。其中,休斯顿描述了按年龄和原因划分的总体GI和亚组GI的最大RR,特别是对于6岁及以下儿童的整体GI(RR=1.35;95%CI=1.11,1.63),6岁及以下儿童腹泻引起的胃肠道(RR=1.38,95%CI=1.13,1.69),6岁及以下儿童的胃肠道和其他原因(RR=1.46;95%CI=1.12,1.80)。研究结果强调了公共卫生干预措施和适应策略的必要性,以应对与气候变化相关的健康结果,例如与极端降水事件相关的胃肠道疾病。
    The ongoing climate change crisis presents challenges to the global public health system. The risk of gastrointestinal illness (GI) related hospitalization increases following extreme weather events but is largely under-reported and under-investigated. This study assessed the association between precipitation and GI-related hospital admissions in four major cities in Texas. Daily data on GI-related hospital admissions and precipitation from 2004 to 2014 were captured from the Texas Department of State Health Services and the National Climate Data Center. Distributed lagged nonlinear modeling approaches were employed to examine the association between precipitation and GI-related hospital admissions. Results showed that the cumulative risk ratios (RRs) of GI-related hospital admissions were elevated in the 2 weeks following precipitation events; however, there were differences observed across study locations. The cumulative RR of GI-related hospitalizations was significantly higher when the amount of daily precipitation ranged from 3.3 mm to 13.5 mm in Dallas and from 6.0 mm to 24.5 mm in Houston. Yet, substantial increases in the cumulative RRs of GI-related hospitalizations were not observed in Austin or San Antonio. Age-specific and cause-specific GI-related hospitalizations were also found to be associated with precipitation events following the same pattern. Among them, Houston depicted the largest RR for overall GI and subgroup GI by age and cause, particularly for the overall GI among children aged 6 and under (RR = 1.35; 95 % CI = 1.11, 1.63), diarrhea-caused GI among children aged 6 and under (RR = 1.38, 95 % CI = 1.13, 1.69), and other-caused GI among children age 6 and under (RR = 1.46; 95 % CI = 1.12, 1.80). The findings underscore the need for public health interventions and adaptation strategies to address climate change-related health outcomes such as GI illness associated with extreme precipitation events.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化可能威胁到流通系统中高价值冷水鱼类的可持续生产,比如鲑鱼。通过分析水温与水文特性的关系,空气温度,太阳照射,和降水,这项研究预测了四种预计的气候变化情景下五个温带冷水水产养殖设施的温度动态。发现空气温度与设施现场水温直接相关,基于理性的假设,预计到本世纪中叶,这五个设施中的两个将面临严重的变暖。极端降水事件导致水温急剧短期升高至5°C。显著降低变暖,大致等于预计的气候变化引起的增长,观察到人工遮光使温度降低1°C。补充生态位模型显示,到本世纪末,当前37-77%的冷水设施可能会导致次优气候条件。跑道的阴影,更有效的用水,和疾病管理被建议作为保护冷水水产养殖的关键行动。
    Climate change potentially threatens the sustainable production of highly valued cold-water fish species in flow-through systems, such as salmonids. By analysing the relationship of water temperature to hydrological characteristics, air temperature, solar exposure, and precipitation, this study predicted temperature dynamics of five temperate cold-water aquaculture facilities under four projected climate change scenarios. Air temperature was found to be directly associated with facility site water temperature, and based on rational assumptions, two of the five facilities were predicted to face critical warming by mid-century. Extreme precipitation events induced acute short-term increases in water temperature of up to 5 °C. Significantly lower warming, roughly equal to the projected climate change-induced increase, was seen with artificial shading lowering temperature by 1 °C. Complementary niche modelling revealed that 37-77 % of current cold-water facilities will likely incur suboptimal climate conditions by the end of the century. Shading of raceways, more efficient water use, and disease management are proposed as key actions to preserve cold-water aquaculture.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    一氧化二氮(N2O)是第三重要的温室气体,会破坏大气臭氧层,对陆地生态系统的威胁。然而,迄今为止,尚不清楚极端降水和氮(N)输入将如何影响温带荒漠草原生态系统中的N2O排放。因此,我们在内蒙古西北部的一个温带荒漠草原上进行了原位实验,2018年至2021年的中国,其中N输入与自然极端降水事件相结合,目的是更好地理解任何相互作用对N2O排放的机制。研究结果表明,该荒漠草原的N2O排放量相对较少,没有明显的季节变化。随着N输入的增加,N2O年排放量呈非线性趋势增加,在潮湿年份(2019年),氮输入的影响要比干旱年份(2021年)大得多。这主要是由于高N输入(2019年6月17日)对N2O排放的促进作用在2019年6月24日的一次极端降水事件中被放大了近17-46倍。相比之下,2019年9月26日,类似的极端降水事件没有观察到高氮输入对N2O排放的极大促进作用。进一步分析表明,土壤NH4+-N含量和氨氧化细菌(amoA(AOB))的丰度是影响N2O排放的最关键因素。土壤水分在调节N2O排放中起着重要的间接作用,主要通过影响amoA(AOB)和反硝化功能微生物(nosZ基因)的丰度。总之,高N输入大大增加了极端降水事件对N2O排放的影响。此外,在这片沙漠草原上,每年的N2O通量通过土壤硝化底物浓度(NH4+-N)共同管理,土壤N转化功能微生物和土壤水分的丰度。总的来说,值得注意的是,极端降水的增加加上氮输入的增加可能会显着增加沙漠草原未来的N2O排放量。
    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important greenhouse gas, and can damage the atmospheric ozone layer, with associated threats to terrestrial ecosystems. However, to date it is unclear how extreme precipitation and nitrogen (N) input will affect N2O emissions in temperate desert steppe ecosystems. Therefore, we conducted an in-situ in a temperate desert steppe in the northwest of Inner Mongolia, China between 2018 and 2021, in which N inputs were combined with natural extreme precipitation events, with the aim of better understanding the mechanism of any interactive effects on N2O emission. The study result showed that N2O emission in this desert steppe was relatively small and did not show significant seasonal change. The annual N2O emission increased in a non-linear trend with increasing N input, with a much greater effect of N input in a wet year (2019) than in a dry year (2021). This was mainly due to the fact that the boost effect of high N input (on June 17th 2019) on N2O emission was greatly amplified by nearly 17-46 times by an extreme precipitation event on June 24th 2019. In contrast, this greatly promoting effect of high N input on N2O emission was not observed on September 26th 2019 by a similar extreme precipitation event. Further analysis showed that soil NH4+-N content and the abundance of ammonia oxidizing bacteria (amoA (AOB)) were the most critical factors affecting N2O emission. Soil moisture played an important indirect role in regulating N2O emission, mainly by influencing the abundance of amoA (AOB) and de-nitrification functional microorganisms (nosZ gene). In conclusion, the effect of extreme precipitation events on N2O emission was greatly increased by high N input. Furthermore, in this desert steppe, annual N2O flux is co-managed through soil nitrification substrate concentration (NH4+-N), the abundance of soil N transformation functional microorganisms and soil moisture. Overall, it was worth noting that an increase in extreme precipitation coupled with increasing N input may significantly increase future N2O emissions from desert steppes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在全球变暖的背景下,探索干旱地区极端气候对全球气候变化的响应尤为重要。基于每日温度(最高,minimum,和平均值)和新疆气象站的降水数据,中国,结合薄板平滑样条函数插值,分析了极端温度和极端降水事件的时空特征,森\的斜坡,和Mann-Kendall测试.我们的结果表明,在1960-2019年期间,霜冻日的极端低温指数(FD),结冰日(ID),寒冷的日子(TX10p),寒冷的夜晚(TN10p),冷速持续指数(CSDI)均呈现不同程度的下降趋势,和夏季极端高温指数(SD25),温暖的日子(TX90p),温暖的夜晚(TN90p),和暖速持续指数(WSDI)都有不同程度的上升趋势,高海拔山区的极端低温指数下降幅度大于盆地和平原。此外,各极端气温指数均与新疆年平均气温密切相关(R>0.6)。在极端降水指数中,除连续干燥日(CDD)外,其他极端降水指数均有不同程度的上升趋势,但新疆极端降水的变化主要表现为短时间内强降水的增加(强降水和极端强降水的增加幅度最大,44.8mm/10a和17.6mm/10a,分别)和空间集中在新疆北部的伊犁河和阿尔泰山。同时,年降水量与极端降水指数呈正相关(R>0.4),除了CDD.该研究为旱区自然灾害的防治提供了理论支持。
    Under the global warming, it is particularly important to explore the response of extreme climate to global climate change over the arid regions. Based on daily temperature (maximum, minimum, and average) and precipitation data from meteorological stations in Xinjiang, China, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events via combining thin plate smoothing spline function interpolation, Sen\'s slope, and Mann-Kendall test. Our results showed that during 1960-2019, the extreme low temperature index of frost days (FD), icing days (ID), cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), and cold speel duration index (CSDI) all showed the downward trend to varying degrees, and the extreme high temperature index of summer days (SD25), warm days (TX90p), warm night (TN90p), and warm speel duration index (WSDI) all showed an upward trend to varying degrees, and the extreme low temperature index of high altitude mountains decreases more than that of the basin and plains. In addition, all the extreme temperature indices are closely related to the annual average temperature in Xinjiang (R > 0.6). Among the extreme precipitation indices, except for the consecutive dry days (CDD), the other extreme precipitation indices showed increasing trends to different degrees, but the changes in extreme precipitation in Xinjiang were mainly manifested by the increase of heavy precipitation in a short period (the increase of heavy precipitation and extreme heavy precipitation was the largest, 44.8 mm/10a and 17.6 mm/10a, respectively) and spatially concentrated in the Ili River and Altai Mountains in northern Xinjiang. Meanwhile, annual precipitation was positively correlated with the extreme precipitation index (R > 0.4), except for the CDD. This study provides theoretical support for the prevention and control of natural disasters in the dry zone.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化驱动的极端高温事件(EHE)和极端降水事件(EPE)的频率增加正在导致传染病和非传染病负担。特别是在城市中心。虽然城市人口的份额继续增长,缺乏对受这些威胁影响的人口的全面评估。利用气象站的数据,气候模型,以及1980-2017年的城市人口增长,我们证明了EHE频率的同时上升,EPE,在世界150个人口最多的城市中,城市人口导致暴露于EHE和EPE的个人增加了500%以上。由于未来几十年的人口增长预计将发生在低收入和中等收入国家的城市中心,迫切需要熟练的早期预警和针对社区的应对策略,以最大程度地减少公共卫生影响和对全球经济的相关成本。
    Climate change driven increases in the frequency of extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme precipitation events (EPE) are contributing to both infectious and non-infectious disease burden, particularly in urban city centers. While the share of urban populations continues to grow, a comprehensive assessment of populations impacted by these threats is lacking. Using data from weather stations, climate models, and urban population growth during 1980-2017, here, we show that the concurrent rise in the frequency of EHE, EPE, and urban populations has resulted in over 500% increases in individuals exposed to EHE and EPE in the 150 most populated cities of the world. Since most of the population increases over the next several decades are projected to take place in city centers within low- and middle-income countries, skillful early warnings and community specific response strategies are urgently needed to minimize public health impacts and associated costs to the global economy.
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