urbanization

城市化
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    土地利用变化是影响生境质量(HQ)的主要因素。厘清HQ与城市化水平(UL)耦合关系的时空变化和障碍因素,可为实现黄河流域可持续发展提供必要的参考。本研究基于InVEST模型,空间自相关,和障碍因子分析来测量YRB从2000年到2020年HQ和UL之间耦合关系的时空动态和障碍。研究结果如下:(1)从2000年到2020年,总部呈现出先升后降的趋势,具有“中部和西部高”的模式,东部低“;(2)从2000年到2020年,UL呈上升趋势,具有“西部低”的模式,中东部高”;(3)YRB中HQ和UL的耦合和协调水平从极端不协调转变为接近协调,它的分布模式是“东方高”,在西部低\“,高价值地区向东扩展,低价值地区向西缩小。(4)位置条件,气候,建设用地比例,植被指数,非农就业比例和非农就业比例是决定HQ与UL耦合协调的主要障碍因素。
    Land use change stands as the primary factor influencing habitat quality (HQ). Clarifying the spatiotemporal change and the obstacle factors of the coupling relationship between HQ and urbanization level (UL) can provide imperative references for achieving sustainability in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). This study is based on the InVEST model, spatial autocorrelation, and obstacle factor analysis to measure the spatiotemporal dynamics and impediments of the coupling relationship between HQ and UL from 2000 to 2020 in the YRB. The findings were as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the HQ showed a tendency of rise first and then fall, with the pattern of \"High in the middle and west, low in the east\"; (2) from 2000 to 2020, the UL had an upward trend, with the pattern of \"Low in the west, high in the middle and east\"; (3) the coupling and coordination level of HQ and UL in the YRB changed from extreme incoordination to verge of coordination, and it had a distribution pattern of \"High in the east, low in the west\", with the high-value area expanding to the east and the low-value area shrinking to the west. (4) Location condition, climate, proportion of construction land, vegetation index, and proportion of non-agricultural employment are the main obstacle factors that determined the coupling and coordination of the HQ and UL.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    城市扩张威胁着生物多样性,并导致生活在这些环境中的物种发生重大变化。鉴于全面监测的成本很高,间接监测疾病,例如检测鸟类的皮肤损伤,可以帮助我们更好地了解影响野生种群的疾病的患病率。我们评估了腿部皮肤损伤的频率,作为疾病存在的代表,在25个物种的1,565个个体中,沿着一个大型新热带城市的城市矩阵,巴西利亚,联邦区,巴西。我们检验了以下假设:由于城市加剧,鸟类的皮肤病变频率增加。我们观察到某些鸟类在病变发生频率和城市化强度之间呈增加趋势。捕获数量较多的物种的病变百分比增加,这表明病变的发生可能与更高的人口密度有关,或者只有当样本量较高且在城市化类别中受到控制时才会检测到这种影响。我们的研究强调了城市化的强度如何增加这些物种的疾病传播风险。不幸的是,在新热带地区,关于这一主题的研究很少,尽管该地区的高度生物多样性和城市扩张。
    Urban sprawl threatens biodiversity and is responsible for significant changes in the species that live in these environments. Given the high cost of comprehensive surveillance, monitoring disease indirectly, such as detecting skin lesions in birds, may help us better understand the prevalence of diseases affecting wild populations. We assessed the frequency of leg skin lesions, as a proxy of disease presence, in 1,565 individuals of 25 species, along the urban matrix of a large Neotropical city, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil. We tested the hypothesis that there is an increase in the frequency of skin lesions in birds due to urban intensification. We observed an increasing trend in some bird species between the frequency of occurrence of lesions and the intensity of urbanization. Species with a higher number of captures had an increase in the percentage of lesions, indicating that the occurrence of lesions may be linked to higher population density or that detection of the effect occurs only when sample sizes are high and controlled among urbanization categories. Our study highlights how the intensity of urbanization may increase the risk of disease transmission for these species. Unfortunately, studies on this topic are scarce in Neotropical regions, despite the region\'s high biodiversity and urban expansion.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    城市扩张一直在迅速增长,预计到2030年全球将增长两倍。城市化的影响对环境和经济发展产生不利影响。住宅用地几乎占城市面积的三分之一,严重影响了城市的居民。蒙古的首都,乌兰巴托,已经大大扩展了,特别是在城市周边地区,那里的生活条件差,缺乏基本的城市服务。本文旨在基于三个主要类别(宜居性,负担能力,和可访问性)使用模糊逻辑的15个标准。通过研究,我们已经确定了一些潜在的适合进一步发展的住宅区,例如位于城市南部的公寓住宅区和四个低层Ger区分布在主要运输走廊上。此外,结果表明,整个城镇的空间结构可能正在向多中心格局过渡。然而,城市外围的同心环图案显示了一个关于不受控制的GER区域扩张,这可能会增加该地区的低生活条件。这项研究建议更好的城市蔓延控制政策和更多的房地产市场投资,以确保乌兰巴托的可持续发展目标。
    Urban expansion has been rapidly increasing and is projected to be tripled in 2030 in worldwide. The impact of urbanization has adverse effects on the environment and economic development. Residential lands consist of almost one-third of the urban area and heavily affect the city\'s inhabitants. The capital of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, has been significantly expanded, particularly in the urban periphery where poor living conditions and a lack of essential urban services were identified. The paper aims to conduct a suitability analysis of residential areas in Ulaanbaatar city based on three main categories (livability, affordability, and accessibility) of fifteen criteria using the fuzzy logic. Through the study, we have identified some potential suitable residential areas for further development, such as apartment residential area located in the southern part of the city and four low-rise ger areas were distributed along major transport corridors. Moreover, the results indicated that the spatial structure of the whole town might be in transition to a polycentric pattern. However, a concentric ring pattern in the \'city\'s periphery displayed a concerning uncontrolled ger area expansion, which may increase low living conditions in the area. This study recommends better urban sprawl control policies and more property market investment in the ger area to ensure sustainable development goals in Ulaanbaatar.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    1978年以来,中国快速的城市化和工业化进程显著增加了碳排放。这项研究采用了空间自相关,核密度估计,和时空地理加权回归(GTWR)方法分析了1978-2020年中国336个城市碳排放的时空演变特征。它还探讨了不同城市在不同发展阶段的主导影响因素。研究结果表明,中国城市碳排放呈现逐步增长模式:“缓慢增长(1978-1995)-低水平稳定(1996-2000)-快速增长(2001-2012)-高水平稳定(2013-2020)。“城市之间的差距迅速扩大,在空间上,分布遵循“核心-外围”模式。核心城市碳排放量的增加使城市等级从“总体低碳”结构转变为“金字塔”结构。与1995年相比,2020年人口规模对碳排放的影响下降(0.54-0.38),而基础设施发展和技术进步的影响增加(0.02-0.25,0.09-0.19)。由于各地区城市发展的不同阶段,碳排放的影响因素具有空间异质性。具体来说,人口规模对东南部的碳排放有更强的积极影响,华东和华北的技术进步,长江流域地区的产业结构。基础设施建设和投资水平对长江流域碳排放具有一定的抑制作用。最后,该研究提出了政策建议,重点是实施区域“梯度”碳减排,并在核心城市的推动下促进区域协作碳减排。
    Since 1978, China\'s rapid urbanization and industrialization have significantly increased carbon emissions. This study employs spatial autocorrelation, kernel density estimation, and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) methods to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions across 336 Chinese cities from 1978 to 2020. It also explores the dominant influencing factors for different cities at various stages of development. The findings reveal that carbon emissions in Chinese cities exhibit a stepwise growth pattern: \"slow growth (1978-1995) - low-level stability (1996-2000) - rapid growth (2001-2012) - high-level stability (2013-2020).\" The gap between cities has widened rapidly, and spatially, the distribution follows a \"core-periphery\" pattern. The increase in carbon emissions in core cities has transformed the urban hierarchy from a \"generally low-carbon\" structure to a \"pyramid\" structure. Compared to 1995, the influence of population size on carbon emissions decreased in 2020 (0.54-0.38), while the impact of infrastructure development and technological advances increased (0.02-0.25, 0.09 to 0.19). Due to the varying stages of urban development across regions, the influencing factors of carbon emissions exhibit spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, population size has a stronger positive impact on carbon emissions in the Southeast, technological advances in East and North China, and industrial structure in the Yangtze River Basin region. Infrastructure construction and investment levels show a dampening effect on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Basin. Finally, the study proposes policy recommendations focusing on implementing regional \"gradient\" carbon reduction and promoting regional collaborative carbon reduction driven by core cities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    精神分裂症风险的城乡差异已在西方国家得到广泛证明。然而,缺乏对这些差异的解释。我们旨在确定精神分裂症的背景危险因素,以解释精神分裂症风险的城乡差异。
    利用丹麦基于人口的登记册,我们将丹麦划分为1885年地理上的“社区”,就人口而言,这些社区的大小是均匀的。1981年至2016年整个丹麦人口的信息用于量化邻域级别的范围。随后,我们对1971年至1982年在丹麦出生的人进行了多水平生存分析,以发展精神分裂症,从而允许社区内的人群聚集。我们用这种方法来梳理个体的影响,具体,和精神分裂症的一般背景危险因素。
    估计了不同社区精神分裂症风险的显著一般背景效应(中等发病率比率(MRR):1.41;95%CI:1.35-1.48)。所检查的大多数特定情境因素与精神分裂症风险相关。例如,社区级的单独成年家庭比例(发病率比率(IRR):1.53;95%CI:1.44-1.63)具有最大的风险估计值.对所有个人水平和特定上下文结构的调整将城市化的IRR从1.98(95%CI:1.77-2.22)降低到1.30(95%CI:1.11-1.51)。
    在迄今为止对精神分裂症风险进行的最大的前瞻性多水平生存分析中,多个邻域水平特征与精神分裂症风险升高相关,这些环境因素解释了大部分与城市化相关的高风险。然而,在我们的多水平模型中明显的无法解释的异质性表明,我们对城市化在精神分裂症病因学中的作用的理解仍然不完整。
    UNASSIGNED: Urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk have been widely evidenced across Western countries. However, explanation of these differences is lacking. We aimed to identify contextual risk factors for schizophrenia that explain urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk.
    UNASSIGNED: Utilizing Danish population-based registers, we partitioned Denmark into 1885 geographic \"neighborhoods\" homogeneously sized in terms of population. Information on the entire Danish population from 1981 to 2016 was used to quantify a spectrum of neighborhood-level domains. We subsequently conducted multilevel survival analyses following persons born in Denmark from 1971 to 1982 for the development of schizophrenia allowing for clustering of people within neighborhoods. We used this method to tease apart the effects of individual, specific, and general contextual risk factors for schizophrenia.
    UNASSIGNED: A significant general contextual effect in schizophrenia risk across neighborhoods was estimated (Medium Incidence Rate Ratio (MRR):1.41; 95% CI:1.35-1.48). Most of the specific contextual factors examined were associated with schizophrenia risk. For instance, neighborhood-level proportion of lone adult households (Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR):1.53; 95% CI:1.44-1.63) had largest risk estimate. Adjustment for all individual-level and specific contextual constructs reduced the IRR for urbanicity from 1.98 (95% CI:1.77-2.22) to 1.30 (95% CI:1.11-1.51).
    UNASSIGNED: In the largest prospective multilevel survival analyses of schizophrenia risk conducted to date, multiple neighborhood-level characteristics were associated with raised schizophrenia risk, with these contextual factors explaining most of the elevated risk linked with urbanicity. However, the unexplained heterogeneity that was evident in our multilevel models indicates that our understanding of the role of urbanicity in schizophrenia\'s etiology remains incomplete.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    快速的城市化和工业化导致了城市和非城市地区之间不同的人为活动和排放,导致不同程度的暴露于空气污染物和相关的健康风险。然而,减轻空气污染和健康益处的努力在不同地区显示出相当大的异质性。因此,了解城市化背景下空气污染物浓度和健康影响的变化对于促进环境公平至关重要。本文使用国内生产总值(GDP)和人口加权方法来区分中国城市和非城市地区的人为排放,并使用社区多尺度空气质量(CMAQ)模型量化其对2010年和2019年的细颗粒物(PM2.5)的贡献。从2010年到2019年,城市和非城市(城市外)地区的人为排放量分别下降了26%和44%,导致中国PM2.5减少31%和28%。由非城市和城市人为排放引起的与PM2.5相关的过早死亡率下降了8%。非城市人为活动是PM2.5(2010年和2019年为56%)及其相关的过早死亡率(59%)的主要原因。这也主要影响非城市过早死亡率(2010-2019年为37-42%)。从2010年到2019年,人口变化增加了城市人口中过早死亡的比例(7-19%)。这项研究强调了城市化和人口变化导致的受影响人口的转移。
    Rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in diverse anthropogenic activities and emissions between urban and non-urban regions, leading to varying levels of exposure to air pollutants and associated health risks. However, endeavors to mitigate air pollution and health benefits have displayed considerable heterogeneity across different regions. Therefore, comprehending the changes in air pollutant concentrations and health impacts within an urbanization context is imperative for promoting environmental equity. This paper uses gross domestic product (GDP)- and population-weighted methods to distinguish anthropogenic emissions from urban and non-urban areas in China and quantified their contributions to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in 2010 and 2019. Anthropogenic emissions from urban and non-urban (outside urban) regions decreased by 26 and 44% from 2010 to 2019, respectively, resulting in 31 and 28% reductions of PM2.5 in China. PM2.5-related premature mortality attributed to non-urban and urban anthropogenic emission decreases by 8%. Non-urban anthropogenic activities are the main contributor to PM2.5 (56% in 2010 and 2019) and its associated premature mortality (59%), which also predominantly affects non-urban premature mortality (37-42% in 2010-2019). Population changes increase the proportion of premature mortality in urban populations (7-19%) from 2010 to 2019. This study emphasizes the shift of affected populations due to urbanization and population changes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人类活动正在全球范围内改变土地利用,土地覆盖(LULC)和地表温度(LST)的现有模式。然而,在喀喇昆仑等许多偏远山区,LULC和LST的长期趋势在很大程度上是未知的。.因此,我们研究的目的是评估伊斯兰堡首都地区高山环境中土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)的历史变化,巴基斯坦。我们使用了1988年,2002年和2016年的Landsat卫星图片(即Landsat5TM和Landsat8OLI),并应用了最大似然分类(MLC)方法对土地利用类别进行了分类。使用Landsat系列数据的热带(6、10和11)计算了地表温度(LST)。通过利用来自GoogleEarthEngine(GEE)的数据评估人类修饰指数(HMI)与LULC以及LST之间的相关性。在学习期间,城市化面积增长9.94%,而农业和裸土面积减少了3.81%和3.94%,分别。研究结果表明,LULC发生了显着变化,植被减少了1.99%。LST最高的班级表现出进步的趋势,从12.27%上升至48.48%。根据LST分析,建筑区域显示最高温度,接着是贫瘠的,农业,和植被类别。同样,不同LST类别的HMI表明,与较低LST类别相比,较高LST类别的人类改变水平更高,HMI和LST之间具有很强的相关性(R值=0.61)。研究结果可用于促进可持续城市管理和生物多样性保护工作。这项工作也有可能利用它来保护脆弱的生态系统免受人为干扰,并制定可持续城市增长的战略和法规,包括土地利用和分区方面,减少城市热应力,城市基础设施。
    Human activities are altering the existing patterns of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) on a global scale. However, long-term trends of LULC and LST are largely unknown in many remote mountain areas such as the Karakorum. . The objective of our study therefore was to evaluate the historical changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in an alpine environment located in Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan. We used Landsat satellite pictures (namely Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI) from the years 1988, 2002, and 2016 and applied the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) approach to categorize land use classes. Land Surface Temperatures (LST) were calculated using the thermal bands (6, 10, and 11) of Landsat series data. The correlation between the Human Modification Index (HMI) and LULC as well as LST was evaluated by utilizing data from Google Earth Engine (GEE). Over the study period, the urbanized area increased by 9.94%, whilst the agricultural and bare soil areas decreased by 3.81% and 3.94%, respectively. The findings revealed a significant change in the LULC with a decrease of 1.99% in vegetation. The highest LST class exhibited a progressive trend, with an increase from 12.27% to 48.48%. Based on the LST analysis, the built-up area shows the highest temperature, followed by the barren, agricultural, and vegetation categories. Similarly, the HMI for different LST categories indicates that higher LST categories have higher levels of human alteration compared to lower LST categories, with a strong correlation (R-value = 0.61) between HMI and LST. The findings can be utilized to promote sustainable urban management and for biodiversity conservation efforts. The work also has the potential of utilizing it to protect delicate ecosystems from human interference and to formulate strategies and regulations for sustainable urban growth, including aspects of land utilization and zoning, reduction of urban heat stress, and urban infrastructure.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去的25年里,快速的城市化导致喀布尔省的土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)发生了重大变化,阿富汗。为了评估LULC变化对地表温度(LST)的影响,喀布尔省使用1998年至2022年的Landsat卫星图像应用支持向量机(SVM)算法分为四个LULC类。使用来自热带的Landsat数据评估LST。应用细胞自动机-逻辑回归(CA-LR)模型预测了2034年和2046年LULC和LST的未来模式。结果显示LULC类的显著变化,随着建成区面积增加约9.37%,而裸露的土壤和植被覆盖率下降了7.20%和2.35%,分别,从1998年到2022年。对年度LST的分析表明,建成区的平均LST最高,其次是裸露的土壤和植被。未来的模拟结果表明,预计到2034年和2046年,建成区面积将分别增加到17.08%和23.10%,比2022年的11.23%。同样,LST的模拟结果表明,到2034年和2046年,经历最高LST等级(≥32°C)的区域预计将分别增加到27.01%和43.05%,比2022年的11.21%。结果表明,随着建成区面积的增加和植被覆盖的减少,LST显著增加,揭示了城市化和气温上升之间的直接联系。
    Over the past two and a half decades, rapid urbanization has led to significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Kabul province, Afghanistan. To assess the impact of LULC changes on land surface temperature (LST), Kabul province was divided into four LULC classes applying the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm using the Landsat satellite images from 1998 to 2022. The LST was assessed using Landsat data from the thermal band. The Cellular Automata-Logistic Regression (CA-LR) model was applied to predict the future patterns of LULC and LST for 2034 and 2046. Results showed significant changes in LULC classes, as the built-up areas increased about 9.37%, while the bare soil and vegetation cover decreased 7.20% and 2.35%, respectively, from 1998 to 2022. The analysis of annual LST revealed that built-up areas showed the highest mean LST, followed by bare soil and vegetation. The future simulation results indicate an expected increase in built-up areas to 17.08% and 23.10% by 2034 and 2046, respectively, compared to 11.23% in 2022. Similarly, the simulation results for LST indicated that the area experiencing the highest LST class (≥ 32 °C) is expected to increase to 27.01% and 43.05% by 2034 and 2046, respectively, compared to 11.21% in 2022. The results indicate that LST increases considerably as built-up areas increase and vegetation cover decreases, revealing a direct link between urbanization and rising temperatures.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:轻度认知障碍(MCI)是一个重要的公共卫生问题,也是阿尔茨海默病(AD)的潜在前兆。这项研究利用电子健康记录(EHR)数据来探索MCI发病率的城乡差异。危险因素,和西密歇根的医疗保健导航。
    方法:对CorewellHealthWest的1,528,464名患者进行了分析,使用2015年1月1日至2022年7月31日之间的面对面相遇。MCI病例是使用国际疾病分类(ICD)代码识别的,关注45岁以上无MCI、痴呆症、或AD诊断。发病率,累积发生率,初级保健医生(PCP),研究了农村和城市地区的神经心理学转诊结局.通过单因素和多因素Cox回归分析评估危险因素。病人数量的地理分布,医院位置,和神经内科转诊进行了检查。
    结果:在423,592名患者中,与农村地区相比,城市地区的MCI发病率更高(3.83vs.3.22/1000人年)。然而,敏感性分析显示,当包括直接进展为痴呆的患者时,农村地区的发病率较高.城市患者转诊和完成神经学服务的比率更高。虽然MCI的风险因素在城市和农村人口中基本相似,MCI事件的城市特定因素是听力损失,炎症性肠病,阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停,失眠,作为非裔美国人,体重不足。常见的危险因素包括糖尿病,颅内损伤,脑血管疾病,冠状动脉疾病,中风,帕金森病,癫痫,慢性阻塞性肺疾病,抑郁症,和年龄增加。较低的风险与女性有关,具有较高的体重指数,有较高的舒张压.
    结论:这项研究强调了MCI发病率和获得护理的城乡差异,这表明农村地区的潜在诊断不足可能是由于接触专家的机会减少。未来的研究应该探索社会经济,环境,和MCI的生活方式决定因素,以完善跨地理环境的预防和管理策略。
    利用EHR探索西密歇根州MCI的城乡差异。显示MCI的严重诊断不足,尤其是在农村地区。观察到农村患者的神经系统转诊和完成率较低。确定了农村和城市人口特有的风险因素。
    BACKGROUND: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a significant public health concern and a potential precursor to Alzheimer\'s disease (AD). This study leverages electronic health record (EHR) data to explore rural-urban differences in MCI incidence, risk factors, and healthcare navigation in West Michigan.
    METHODS: Analysis was conducted on 1,528,464 patients from Corewell Health West, using face-to-face encounters between 1/1/2015 and 7/31/2022. MCI cases were identified using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes, focusing on patients aged 45+ without prior MCI, dementia, or AD diagnoses. Incidence rates, cumulative incidences, primary care physicians (PCPs), and neuropsychology referral outcomes were examined across rural and urban areas. Risk factors were evaluated through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The geographic distribution of patient counts, hospital locations, and neurology department referrals were examined.
    RESULTS: Among 423,592 patients, a higher MCI incidence rate was observed in urban settings compared to rural settings (3.83 vs. 3.22 per 1,000 person-years). However, sensitivity analysis revealed higher incidence rates in rural areas when including patients who progressed directly to dementia. Urban patients demonstrated higher rates of referrals to and completion of neurological services. While the risk factors for MCI were largely similar across urban and rural populations, urban-specific factors for incident MCI are hearing loss, inflammatory bowel disease, obstructive sleep apnea, insomnia, being African American, and being underweight. Common risk factors include diabetes, intracranial injury, cerebrovascular disease, coronary artery disease, stroke, Parkinson\'s disease, epilepsy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, and increased age. Lower risk was associated with being female, having a higher body mass index, and having a higher diastolic blood pressure.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights rural-urban differences in MCI incidence and access to care, suggesting potential underdiagnosis in rural areas likely due to reduced access to specialists. Future research should explore socioeconomic, environmental, and lifestyle determinants of MCI to refine prevention and management strategies across geographic settings.
    UNASSIGNED: Leveraged EHRs to explore rural-urban differences in MCI in West Michigan.Revealed a significant underdiagnosis of MCI, especially in rural areas.Observed lower rates of neurological referrals and completions for rural patients.Identified risk factors specific to rural and urban populations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    评估城市和周围非城市地区的蒸散量差异(即,ΔET)对城市生态规划和水资源管理具有至关重要的意义。然而,目前尚不清楚在中国不同的气候条件下,城市化引起的ΔET变化的幅度如何变化。这里,使用1公里空间分辨率的远程ET估计,我们首先估计了ΔET的变化幅度,然后量化了2003-2020年中国7个国家级城市群(UAs)影响ΔET变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明,所有年度ETnurban值均小于ETnon-urban的7个UA,华南地区城市的ΔET绝对值普遍高于华北地区。城市化对关中平原城市群ET增长有明显影响,中原UA和粤港澳大湾区(GHKMGBA),而成渝城市群和长江三角洲(YRDUA)的ET下降主要是由于气候变化。温度和NDVI对YRDUAET降低的抑制作用增强,GDP对GHKMGBAΔET增长的促进作用减弱。考虑到非平稳特征,城市化似乎使极端ΔET提高了0.83%,5年期以下4.83%和10.39%,20年,以及所有7个UA的50年回报期,分别。总的来说,我们的研究结果证实,城市化是导致ΔET增加的重要因素,影响城市水循环系统响应的因素需要深入分解。
    Evaluating the differences in evapotranspiration between urban and surrounding non-urban areas (i.e., ∆ET) has critical implications for urban ecological planning and water resources management. However, it is unclear how the magnitude of changes in ∆ET caused by urbanization varies under different climatic conditions in China. Here, using the remotely ET estimates at 1 km spatial resolution, we firstly estimated the magnitude of changes in ∆ET and then quantified the main driving factors influencing variations in ∆ET of 7 national-level urban agglomerations (UAs) across China during 2003-2020. Results showed that all annual ETurban values were smaller than ETnon-urban of 7 UAs, and the absolute ∆ET values of cities in South China were generally higher than those in North China. There is an apparent effect of urbanization on ∆ET increase in Guanzhong Plain City Group, Central Plain UA and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GHKMGBA), while ∆ET decrease in Chengdu-Chongqing City Group and Yangtze River Delta (YRDUA) were primarily due to the climate change. The suppressing effects of temperature and NDVI on ∆ET decrease in YRDUA were enhanced, and the promoting effect of GDP on ∆ET increase in GHKMGBA was weakened. Considering nonstationary features, urbanization appears to heighten extreme ∆ET by 0.83 %, 4.83 % and 10.39 % under 5-year, 20-year, and 50-year return periods over all the 7 UAs, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that urbanization is a significant factor that leads to ∆ET increase, and the factors affecting the response of urban water circulation system need to be deeply decomposed.
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