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Abstract：
Since 1978, China\'s rapid urbanization and industrialization have significantly increased carbon emissions. This study employs spatial autocorrelation, kernel density estimation, and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) methods to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions across 336 Chinese cities from 1978 to 2020. It also explores the dominant influencing factors for different cities at various stages of development. The findings reveal that carbon emissions in Chinese cities exhibit a stepwise growth pattern: \"slow growth (1978-1995) - low-level stability (1996-2000) - rapid growth (2001-2012) - high-level stability (2013-2020).\" The gap between cities has widened rapidly, and spatially, the distribution follows a \"core-periphery\" pattern. The increase in carbon emissions in core cities has transformed the urban hierarchy from a \"generally low-carbon\" structure to a \"pyramid\" structure. Compared to 1995, the influence of population size on carbon emissions decreased in 2020 (0.54-0.38), while the impact of infrastructure development and technological advances increased (0.02-0.25, 0.09 to 0.19). Due to the varying stages of urban development across regions, the influencing factors of carbon emissions exhibit spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, population size has a stronger positive impact on carbon emissions in the Southeast, technological advances in East and North China, and industrial structure in the Yangtze River Basin region. Infrastructure construction and investment levels show a dampening effect on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Basin. Finally, the study proposes policy recommendations focusing on implementing regional \"gradient\" carbon reduction and promoting regional collaborative carbon reduction driven by core cities.
摘要：
1978年以来,中国快速的城市化和工业化进程显著增加了碳排放。这项研究采用了空间自相关，核密度估计，和时空地理加权回归(GTWR)方法分析了1978-2020年中国336个城市碳排放的时空演变特征。它还探讨了不同城市在不同发展阶段的主导影响因素。研究结果表明，中国城市碳排放呈现逐步增长模式：“缓慢增长（1978-1995）-低水平稳定（1996-2000）-快速增长（2001-2012）-高水平稳定（2013-2020）。“城市之间的差距迅速扩大，在空间上，分布遵循“核心-外围”模式。核心城市碳排放量的增加使城市等级从“总体低碳”结构转变为“金字塔”结构。与1995年相比，2020年人口规模对碳排放的影响下降(0.54-0.38)，而基础设施发展和技术进步的影响增加（0.02-0.25，0.09-0.19）。由于各地区城市发展的不同阶段，碳排放的影响因素具有空间异质性。具体来说,人口规模对东南部的碳排放有更强的积极影响，华东和华北的技术进步，长江流域地区的产业结构。基础设施建设和投资水平对长江流域碳排放具有一定的抑制作用。最后,该研究提出了政策建议，重点是实施区域“梯度”碳减排，并在核心城市的推动下促进区域协作碳减排。
