risk score

风险评分
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:心脏植入式电子设备(CIED)感染尽管治疗效果最佳,但仍造成显著的死亡率和发病率。这项调查旨在了解在欧洲临床实践中是否以及如何评估和减轻CIED感染的风险。并发现与EHRA建议的差距。
    方法:由8名欧洲心脏病学家组成的专家小组设计了一项调查,并以电子方式向许多欧洲心脏病学家分发。
    结果:来自18个欧洲国家的302名医生对调查做出了回应。288/302(95%)的医生认为CIED相关感染是医疗资源的负担,并与显著的发病率和死亡率相关。285/302名受访者(94%)主要通过仅评估患者的临床特征(137/302,46%)或支持风险评分(148/302,49%)来评估CIED感染的风险。282/302(93%)使用静脉抗生素预防,其次是可能的最低数量的引线植入(182/302,60%),并使用抗菌信封(173/302,57%)。230/302受访者(76%)表示需要清晰简洁的指南和更敏感的CIED感染风险评分,最大限度地提高预防策略的机会。
    结论:这项调查表明人们对CIED感染的多方面问题有很高的认识,然而,它还强调了风险分层评分系统由于其感知的局限性而不完全渗透,并检测到提高预防策略有效性的坚定承诺。
    OBJECTIVE: Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device (CIED) infections pose significant mortality and morbidity despite optimal treatment. This survey aimed to understand whether and how the risk of CIED infection is assessed and mitigated in clinical practice in Europe, and to detect gaps with respect to EHRA recommendations.
    METHODS: An Expert Group of 8 European cardiologists with specific expertise across CIED therapy designed and distributed electronically a survey to a number of European Cardiologists.
    RESULTS: 302 physicians from 18 European countries responded to the survey. 288/302 (95%) physicians agreed that CIED-related infections represent a burden on healthcare resources and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. 285/302 respondents (94%) primarily assess the risk of CIED infections by only evaluating the patient\'s clinical profile (137/302, 46%) or with the support of a risk score (148/302, 49%). Intravenous antibiotic prophylaxis is used by 282/302 (93%), followed by the implantation of the lowest number of leads possible (182/302, 60%), and by the use of an antibacterial envelope (173/302, 57%). 230/302 respondents (76%) declared that there is need for clear and concise guidelines and more sensitive risk-scores for CIED infection, to maximize the chances of preventative strategies.
    CONCLUSIONS: This survey demonstrates a high level of awareness about the multifaceted issue of CIED infection, however, it also highlights an incomplete penetration of scoring systems for risk stratification owing to their perceived limitations, and detects a strong commitment to increase the effectiveness of preventative strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    探讨临床单站N2(cN2a)非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)前期手术患者病理性多站N2(pN2b)的远期疗效,并建立其风险模型。从2006年到2018年,对547例疑似cN2aNSCLC进行了前期手术的患者进行了分析。通过多变量逻辑分析,使用术前临床变量建立了预测pN2b转移的风险模型。在547例临床cN2aNSCLC患者中,118(21.6%),58(10.6%),和371(67.8%)有pN0,pN1和pN2。在371名pN2非小细胞肺癌患者中,77(20.8%),165(44.5%),129例(34.7%)有pN2a1、pN2a2和pN2b。pN2a1和pN2a2的5年总生存率显著高于pN2b(p=0.041)。组织学类型(p<0.001),年龄≤50岁(p<0.001),术前证实N2转移(p<0.001),和临床IIIB期(vs.IIIA)(p=0.003)是pN2b转移的独立危险因素。基于该模型的风险评分系统对pN2b疾病表现出良好的判别能力(接受者工作特征下的面积:0.779)。在cN2aNSCLC患者中,有多个N2转移的患者预后比单一N2转移的患者差.我们的风险评分系统有效地预测了这些患者的pN2b。
    To investigate long-term outcomes and develop a risk model for pathological multi-station N2 (pN2b) in patients who underwent upfront surgery for clinical single-station N2 (cN2a) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). From 2006 to 2018, 547 patients who had upfront surgery for suspected cN2a NSCLC underwent analysis. A risk model for predicting pN2b metastasis was developed using preoperative clinical variables via multivariable logistic analysis. Among 547 clinical cN2a NSCLC patients, 118 (21.6%), 58 (10.6%), and 371 (67.8%) had pN0, pN1, and pN2. Among 371 pN2 NSCLC patients, 77 (20.8%), 165 (44.5%), and 129 (34.7%) had pN2a1, pN2a2, and pN2b. The 5-year overall survival rates for pN2a1 and pN2a2 were significantly higher than for pN2b (p = 0.041). Histologic type (p < 0.001), age ≤ 50 years (p < 0.001), preoperatively confirmed N2 metastasis (p < 0.001), and clinical stage IIIB (vs. IIIA) (p = 0.003) were independent risk factors for pN2b metastasis. The risk scoring system based on this model demonstrated good discriminant ability for pN2b disease (area under receiver operating characteristic: 0.779). In cN2a NSCLC patients, those with multiple N2 metastases indicate worse prognosis than those with a single N2 metastasis. Our risk scoring system effectively predicts pN2b in these patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    风险评分可确定存在不良事件风险的二尖瓣反流(MR)患者。但谁仍可能从经导管边缘到边缘修复(TEER)中受益。我们试图交叉验证MitraScore和COAPT风险评分,以预测接受TEER的患者的不良事件。
    在COAPT人群中进行了MitraScore验证,其中包括614名FMR患者,他们以1:1的比例随机接受有或没有TEER的指南指导的药物治疗(GDMT),并随访2年。在接受TEER治疗的FMR和退行性MR患者的MIVNUT注册表中,对1007名患者进行了COAPT风险评分的验证,这些患者平均随访2.1年。使用接受者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)图来评估预测值。主要结果是全因死亡率。
    MitraScore对总体COAPT试验人群的死亡率具有相当好的预测准确性(AUC,0.67);在接受TEER治疗的患者中,其准确性更高(AUC,0.74)比单独的GDMT(AUC,0.65)。在整个MitraScore队列中,COAPT风险评分对死亡具有公平的预测准确性(AUC,0.64),这在FMR和退行性MR患者中相似(AUC,分别为0.64和0.66)。在所有MitraScore风险层的COAPT试验人群中,与单独使用GDMT相比,TEER加GDMT治疗具有一致的益处。
    COAPT风险评分和MitraScore是简单的工具,可用于预测符合或接受TEER治疗的患者的2年死亡率。
    UNASSIGNED: Risk scores may identify patients with mitral regurgitation (MR) who are at risk for adverse events, but who may still benefit from transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER). We sought to cross-validate the MitraScore and COAPT risk score to predict adverse events in patients undergoing TEER.
    UNASSIGNED: MitraScore validation was carried out in the COAPT population which included 614 patients with FMR who were randomized 1:1 to guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) with or without TEER and were followed for 2 years. Validation of the COAPT risk score was carried out in 1007 patients from the MIVNUT registry of TEER-treated patients with both FMR and degenerative MR who were followed for a mean of 2.1 years. The predictive value was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) plots. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.
    UNASSIGNED: The MitraScore had fair to good predictive accuracy for mortality in the overall COAPT trial population (AUC, 0.67); its accuracy was higher in patients treated with TEER (AUC, 0.74) than GDMT alone (AUC, 0.65). The COAPT risk score had fair predictive accuracy for death in the overall MitraScore cohort (AUC, 0.64), which was similar in patients with FMR and degenerative MR (AUC, 0.64 and 0.66, respectively). There was a consistent benefit of treatment with TEER plus GDMT compared with GDMT alone in the COAPT trial population across all MitraScore risk strata.
    UNASSIGNED: The COAPT risk score and MitraScore are simple tools that are useful for the prediction of 2-year mortality in patients eligible for or undergoing treatment with TEER.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    胸外科医师协会(STS)评分已用于对接受经导管主动脉瓣置换术(TAVR)的患者进行风险分层。制定了经导管瓣膜治疗(TVT)评分来预测高危/禁忌症患者的院内死亡率。其在低危和中危患者中的表现尚不清楚。我们试图比较TVT和STS评分预测接受TAVR的所有手术风险患者临床结果的能力。
    对2012-2020年在大型医疗保健系统中连续接受TAVR的患者进行回顾性审查,并通过STS风险评分进行分层。使用30天和1年死亡率的观察到的预期死亡率(O:E)和接受者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)比较了TVT和STS评分的预测能力。
    我们评估了3270名患者(平均年龄79±9岁,45%女性),包括191个(5.8%)低风险,1093(33.4%)中等风险,1584(48.4%)高风险,402人(5.8%)无法手术。平均TVT和STS评分分别为3.5%±2.0%和6.1%±4.3%,分别。观察到的30天和1年死亡率为2.8%(92/3270;O:ETVT0.8±0.16vsSTS0.46±0.09),和13.2%(432/3270),分别。在所有的人口中,TVT和STS风险评分均显示30天预测较差(AUC:TVT0.68[0.62-0.74]vsSTS0.64[0.58-0.70]),和1年(AUC:TVT0.65[0.62-0.58]vsSTS0.65[0.62-0.58])死亡率。按手术风险分层后,在30天和1年的所有类别中,TVT和STS分数的歧视仍然很差。
    应在更大的国家注册基础上制定更新的TAVR风险评分,提高所有手术风险类别的预测能力。
    UNASSIGNED: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score has been used to risk stratify patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). The Transcatheter Valve Therapy (TVT) score was developed to predict in-hospital mortality in high/prohibitive-risk patients. Its performance in low and intermediate-risk patients is unknown. We sought to compare TVT and STS scores\' ability to predict clinical outcomes in all-surgical-risk patients undergoing TAVR.
    UNASSIGNED: Consecutive patients undergoing TAVR from 2012-2020 within a large health care system were retrospectively reviewed and stratified by STS risk score. Predictive abilities of TVT and STS scores were compared using observed-to-expected mortality ratios (O:E) and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs) for 30-day and 1-year mortality.
    UNASSIGNED: We assessed a total of 3270 patients (mean age 79 ± 9 years, 45% female), including 191 (5.8%) low-risk, 1093 (33.4%) intermediate-risk, 1584 (48.4%) high-risk, and 402 (5.8%) inoperable. Mean TVT and STS scores were 3.5% ± 2.0% and 6.1% ± 4.3%, respectively. Observed 30-day and 1-year mortality were 2.8% (92/3270; O:E TVT 0.8 ± 0.16 vs STS 0.46 ± 0.09), and 13.2% (432/3270), respectively. In the all-comers population, both TVT and STS risk scores showed poor prediction of 30-day (AUC: TVT 0.68 [0.62-0.74] vs STS 0.64 [0.58-0.70]), and 1-year (AUC: TVT 0.65 [0.62-0.58] vs STS 0.65 [0.62-0.58]) mortality. After stratifying by surgical risk, discrimination of the TVT and STS scores remained poor in all categories at 30 days and 1 year.
    UNASSIGNED: An updated TAVR risk score with improved predictive ability across all-surgical-risk categories should be developed based on a larger national registry.
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  • 文章类型: Editorial
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  • 文章类型: Editorial
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:这项研究基于19个PANoptesis相关基因特征对胆道癌症患者进行了分子分型。
    方法:通过共识聚类,患者分为两种亚型,A和B.通过整合来自不同队列的多组数据和临床信息,我们阐明了胆道癌的不同亚型与患者预后之间的关系,与患者的免疫浸润特征有关。
    结果:对19个基因特征进行了LASSO回归分析,我们构建并验证了一个9基因风险评分预后模型,该模型可以准确预测不同胆道肿瘤患者的总体生存率。此外,我们开发了一个预测列线图,证明了我们模型的临床实用性和稳健性.基于风险评分的免疫景观的进一步分析突出了与免疫细胞浸润的潜在关联,化疗,和免疫治疗反应。
    结论:我们的研究为胆道癌的个性化治疗策略提供了有价值的见解,这对于改善患者预后和指导临床实践中的治疗决策至关重要。
    BACKGROUND: This study conducted molecular subtyping of biliary tract cancer patients based on 19 PANoptosis-related gene signatures.
    METHODS: Through consensus clustering, patients were categorized into two subtypes, A and B. By integrating multi-omics data and clinical information from different cohorts, we elucidated the association between different subtypes of biliary tract cancer and patient prognosis, which correlated with the immune infiltration characteristics of patients.
    RESULTS: LASSO regression analysis was performed on the 19 gene signatures, and we constructed and validated a 9-gene risk score prognostic model that accurately predicts the overall survival rate of different biliary tract cancer patients. Additionally, we developed a predictive nomogram demonstrating the clinical utility and robustness of our model. Further analysis of the risk score-based immune landscape highlighted potential associations with immune cell infiltration, chemotherapy, and immune therapy response.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides valuable insights into personalized treatment strategies for biliary tract cancer, which are crucial for improving patient prognosis and guiding treatment decisions in clinical practice.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们试图确定中性粒细胞胞外诱捕网(NET)相关基因在提高骨肉瘤诊断效果和确定新的治疗靶点方面的潜在价值。数据来自TARGET,GEO,和CCLE数据库。基于NET相关基因鉴定了亚型之间的差异表达基因。PPI网络是使用STRING构建的,接下来是ClueGO富集分析。通过ssGSEA计算免疫细胞的浸润。通过LASSOCox回归分析建立风险评分模型。Westernblot和qRT-PCR用于验证模型中使用的基因的表达。我们使用单变量Cox回归分析鉴定了19个NET相关基因在骨肉瘤中具有预后潜力。来自TARGET的患者聚集为具有不同预后和免疫特征的两种亚型。在两个NET亚型之间识别出381个DEG。基于BST1、SELPLG、FPR1和TNFRSF10C是预测骨肉瘤患者预后的可靠指标。这四个基因在骨肉瘤中的表达明显低于正常细胞。低风险评分个体仅存在于预后较好的C1亚型中。根据NET相关基因将骨肉瘤分为两个亚型。由4个NET相关基因构建的风险评分模型能够独立预测骨肉瘤的预后。
    We sought to determine neutrophil extracellular trap (NET)-related genes\' potential value in improving the efficacy of diagnosis and identifying novel therapeutic targets for osteosarcoma. Data were obtained from TARGET, GEO, and CCLE database. Differentially expressed genes were identified between the subtypes based on NET-related genes. PPI network was constructed using STRING, following by ClueGO enrichment analysis. Infiltration of immune cells was calculated by ssGSEA. Risk Score model was built by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Western blot and qRT-PCR were applied to validate the expression of genes used in the model. We identified 19 NET-related genes with prognostic potential in osteosarcoma using univariate Cox regression analysis. Patients from TARGET were clustered into two subtypes with distinct prognosis and immune features. 381 DEGs were identified between the two NET subtypes. Risk Score based on BST1, SELPLG, FPR1 and TNFRSF10C was reliable to predict the prognosis of osteosarcoma patients. The four genes expressed significantly lower in osteosarcoma than normal cells. Low Risk Score individuals only existed in C1 subtype with better prognosis. Osteosarcoma were clustered into two subtypes based on NET-related genes. Risk Score model constructed by four NET-related gene was able to independently predict the prognosis of osteosarcoma.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:溶质载体家族4成员4(SLC4A4)的表达和活性改变可能会影响生长,肿瘤细胞的存活和转移。目前,SLC4A4在肺腺癌(LUAD)免疫治疗和预后中的作用尚不完全清楚.
    方法:我们使用定量逆转录-聚合酶链反应分析了SLC4A4在LUAD组织和细胞系中的表达,西方印迹,和免疫组织化学。SLC4A4过表达对血管生成的影响,细胞迁移,入侵,并检查上皮-间质转化。公共数据库帮助构建了评估SLC4A4表达对LUAD预后和免疫治疗反应的风险模型。此外,异种移植模型,流式细胞术,酶联免疫吸附试验进一步探讨了SLC4A4在肿瘤免疫微环境浸润中的作用。
    结果:上调SLC4A4可促进LUAD细胞株的凋亡,并显著抑制癌细胞的迁移和侵袭能力(P<0.01)。共有10个关键基因(包括SIGLEC6、RHOV、PIR,MOB3B,MIR3135B,LPAR6,KRT8,ITGA2,CPS1和C6)根据SLC4A4表达进行筛选,免疫评分和基质评分,并构建了预后良好的预后模型(在1,3和5年的训练队列中AUC值分别达到0.73,0.73和0.72).重要的是,我们证明SLC4A4的高表达能够增加CD8+T细胞的增殖水平和细胞因子分泌,以促进免疫系统对LUAD的反应。
    结论:我们的研究表明,SLC4A4可以作为LUAD的预后指标,为LUAD的治疗和诊断提供新的见解。
    BACKGROUND: Altered expression and activity of solute carrier family 4 member 4 (SLC4A4) could affect the growth, survival and metastasis of tumor cells. Currently, the role of SLC4A4 in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) immunotherapy and prognosis was not entirely clear.
    METHODS: We analyzed SLC4A4 expression in LUAD tissues and cell lines using quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, Western blotting, and immunohistochemistry. The effects of SLC4A4 overexpression on angiogenesis, cell migration, invasion, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition were examined. Public databases helped construct a risk model evaluating SLC4A4\'s expression on LUAD prognosis and immunotherapy response. Additionally, a xenograft model, flow cytometry, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay further explored SLC4A4\'s role in tumor immune microenvironment infiltration.
    RESULTS: Upregulation of SLC4A4 promoted apoptosis in the LUAD cell line and significantly inhibited the migration and invasive ability of cancer cells (P<0.01). A total of 10 key genes (including SIGLEC6, RHOV, PIR, MOB3B, MIR3135B, LPAR6, KRT8, ITGA2, CPS1, and C6) were screened according to SLC4A4 expression, immune score and stromal score, and a prognostic model with good outcome was constructed (AUC values of which in the training cohort at 1,3, and 5 years reached 0.73, 0.73, and 0.72, respectively). Importantly, we demonstrated that high expression of SLC4A4 was able to increase the proliferation level and cytokine secretion of CD8+ T cells for the purpose of promoting the immune system response to LUAD.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our study revealed that SLC4A4 can serve as a prognostic indicator for LUAD, providing new insights into the treatment and diagnosis of LUAD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    心力衰竭(HF)是瓣膜性心脏病(VHD)严重程度的最重要指征之一。伴有HF的VHD通常与较高的手术风险相关。我们的研究试图建立一个风险评分模型来预测瓣膜手术后疑似HF患者的术后死亡率。
    在2016年1月至2018年12月期间,中国心脏外科注册中心(CCSR)数据库中所有疑似HF并接受瓣膜手术的连续成年患者均被纳入。最后,14645例(55.39±11.6岁,43.5%的女性)进行分析。作为模型推导的训练组,我们使用了2016年1月至2018年5月期间接受手术的患者(共11,292例).要验证模型,纳入2018年6月至2018年12月期间接受手术的患者(共3,353例患者)作为试验组.在训练组中,我们构建并验证了使用多变量逻辑回归和自举方法(1000个重新样本)预测术后死亡率的评分系统.我们在测试组中验证了评分模型。使用具有1000个重新样品的自举的Brier评分和校准曲线来评估校准。使用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUROC)来评价鉴别。结果也与EuroSCOREII进行了比较。
    最终评分为0至19分,涉及9个预测因素:年龄≥60岁;纽约心脏协会(NYHA)IV级;左心室射血分数(LVEF)<35%;估计肾小球滤过率(eGFR)<50mL/min/1.73m2;术前透析;左主干狭窄;非选择性手术;围手术期体外循环(CPB)时间>200分钟在训练组中,观察和预测的术后死亡率从0%增加到45.5%,从0.8%增加到50.3%,分别,随着分数从0增加到≥10分。训练组和测试组的评分模型Brier得分分别为0.0279和0.0318。训练组和测试组评分模型的曲线下面积(AUC)均为0.776,均显著高于EuroSCOREⅡ(AUC=0.721,Delong检验,p<0.001)和测试(AUC=0.669,德隆测试,p<0.001)组。
    新的风险评分是一种有效且简洁的工具,可以准确预测瓣膜手术后疑似HF患者的术后死亡率。
    UNASSIGNED: Heart failure (HF) is one of the most important indications of the severity of valvular heart disease (VHD). VHD with HF is frequently associated with a higher surgical risk. Our study sought to develop a risk score model to predict the postoperative mortality of suspected HF patients after valvular surgery.
    UNASSIGNED: Between January 2016 and December 2018, all consecutive adult patients suspected of HF and undergoing valvular surgery in the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry (CCSR) database were included. Finally, 14,645 patients (55.39 ± 11.6 years, 43.5% female) were identified for analysis. As a training group for model derivation, we used patients who had surgery between January 2016 and May 2018 (11,292 in total). To validate the model, patients who underwent surgery between June 2018 and December 2018 (a total of 3353 patients) were included as a testing group. In training group, we constructed and validated a scoring system to predict postoperative mortality using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapping method (1000 re-samples). We validated the scoring model in the testing group. Brier score and calibration curves using bootstrapping with 1000 re-samples were used to evaluate the calibration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discrimination. The results were also compared to EuroSCORE II.
    UNASSIGNED: The final score ranged from 0 to 19 points and involved 9 predictors: age ≥ 60 years; New York Heart Association Class (NYHA) IV; left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 35%; estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 50 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ; preoperative dialysis; Left main artery stenosis; non-elective surgery; cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time > 200 minutes and perioperative transfusion. In training group, observed and predicted postoperative mortality rates increased from 0% to 45.5% and from 0.8% to 50.3%, respectively, as the score increased from 0 up to ≥ 10 points. The scoring model\'s Brier scores in the training and testing groups were 0.0279 and 0.0318, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the scoring model in both the training and testing groups were 0.776, which was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II in both the training (AUC = 0.721, Delong test, p < 0.001) and testing (AUC = 0.669, Delong test, p < 0.001) groups.
    UNASSIGNED: The new risk score is an effective and concise tool that could accurately predict postoperative mortality rates in suspected HF patients after valve surgery.
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