risk score

风险评分
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:越来越多的证据表明游离脂肪酸(FFA)与妊娠期糖尿病(GDM)有关。然而,大多数研究集中在几种特定类型的FFA上,例如α-亚麻酸(C18:3n3)和花生四烯酸(C20:4n6)或总水平的FFA。
    目的:本研究旨在检验孕早期各种FFA与GDM风险之间的关系。
    方法:参与者来自舟山孕妇队列(ZWPC)。进行了1:2巢式病例对照研究:按年龄将50名GDM母亲与100名无GDM母亲相匹配,孕前体重指数(BMI),月口服葡萄糖耐量试验(OGTT)和奇偶校验。37个FFA(包括17个饱和脂肪酸(SFA),8单不饱和脂肪酸(MUFA),通过气相色谱-质谱(GC-MS)测试了孕早期母体血浆中的10种多不饱和脂肪酸(PUFA)和2种反式脂肪酸(TFA))。使用条件逻辑回归模型评估FFA与GDM风险的相关性。
    结果:9个FFA分别与GDM风险增加相关(P<0.05),4种FFA分别与GDM风险降低相关(P<0.05)。SFA风险评分与更高的GDM风险相关(OR=1.34,95%CI:1.12-1.60),以及UFA风险评分(OR=1.26,95%CI:1.11-1.44),MUFA风险评分(OR=1.70,95CI:1.27-2.26),PUFA风险评分(OR=1.32,95CI:1.09-1.59)和TFA风险评分(OR=2.51,95CI:1.23-5.13)。此外,检测了不同类型FFA风险评分对GDM的联合影响.例如,与SFA和UFA风险评分低的人群相比,SFA和UFA风险评分高的女性患GDM的风险最高(OR=8.53,95CI:2.41-30.24),而SFA风险评分低、UFA风险评分高、SFA风险评分高、UFA风险评分低的风险比分别为6.37(95CI:1.33-30.53)和4.25(95CI:0.97-18.70),分别。
    结论:孕早期孕妇FFA与GDM风险呈正相关。此外,FFA对GDM风险有共同作用。
    结论:孕早期FFA水平升高会增加GDM的风险。
    BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence shows that free fatty acids (FFA) are associated with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). However, most of the studies focus on a few specific types of FFA, such as α-linolenic acid (C18:3n3) and Arachidonic acid (C20:4n6) or a total level of FFA.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to test the association between a variety of FFAs during the first trimester and the risk of GDM.
    METHODS: The participants came from the Zhoushan Pregnant Women Cohort (ZWPC). A 1:2 nested case-control study was conducted: fifty mothers with GDM were matched with 100 mothers without GDM by age, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), month of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and parity. Thirty-seven FFAs (including 17 saturated fatty acids (SFA), 8 monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), 10 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and 2 trans fatty acids (TFA)) in maternal plasma during the first trimester were tested by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). Conditional logistic regression models were performed to assess the associations of FFA with the risk of GDM.
    RESULTS: Nine FFAs were respectively associated with an increased risk of GDM (P < 0.05), and four FFAs were respectively associated with a decreased risk of GDM (P < 0.05). SFA risk score was associated with a greater risk of GDM (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.12-1.60), as well as UFA risk score (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.11-1.44), MUFA risk score (OR = 1.70, 95%CI: 1.27-2.26), PUFA risk score (OR = 1.32, 95%CI: 1.09-1.59) and TFA risk score (OR = 2.51, 95%CI: 1.23-5.13). Moreover, joint effects between different types of FFA risk scores on GDM were detected. For instance, compared with those with low risk scores of SFA and UFA, women with high risk scores of SFA and UFA had the highest risk of GDM (OR = 8.53, 95%CI: 2.41-30.24), while the Odds ratio in those with a low risk score of SFA and high risk score of UFA and those with a high risk score of SFA and low risk score of UFA was 6.37 (95%CI:1.33- 30.53) and 4.25 (95%CI: 0.97-18.70), respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: Maternal FFAs during the first trimester were positively associated with the risk of GDM. Additionally, there were joint effects between FFAs on GDM risk.
    CONCLUSIONS: Elevated FFA levels in the first trimester increased the risk of GDM.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:这项研究的目的是在诊断时检查呼吸系统并发症的危险因素,并建立儿童和青少年纵隔肿瘤的临床管理算法。
    方法:我们回顾性收集了1999年至2019年在Sa玉儿童医疗中心出现纵隔肿瘤的所有儿童和青少年的临床资料,包括年龄,性别,病理诊断,八种主要临床症状(咳嗽,呼吸困难,缺氧,端坐呼吸,胸痛,喘息,上腔静脉综合征,和喘鸣),胸部计算机断层扫描(CT)发现(肿瘤位置,纵隔质量比,胸腔积液,心包积液,和压缩气管和支气管),诊断程序和麻醉的类型,呼吸系统并发症(严重缺氧,通风困难,呼吸衰竭,和心肺骤停),和临床结果。随后,我们结合临床和放射学检查结果,计算了预测呼吸系统并发症的风险评分.
    结果:在57例患者中,7(12%)产生呼吸道并发症。咳嗽,呼吸困难,缺氧,和端坐呼吸在有并发症的患者中明显更常见(分别为p=0.02,p=0.02,p<0.01,p=0.03)。在有并发症的患者中,胸部CT中气管横截面积(%TCA)的百分比减小和隆突受压也明显更常见(分别为p<0.01和<0.01)。我们结合咳嗽计算呼吸道并发症的风险评分,喘息,stridor,端坐呼吸,呼吸困难,缺氧,%TCA<0.5,并压缩隆突。风险评分≥7对并发症的预测准确性较高(敏感性:100%,特异性:97.7%,正似然比:43.0)。
    结论:将临床症状与放射学结果相结合的风险评分是纵隔肿瘤患儿呼吸系统并发症的一个有希望的预测工具。
    The aim of this study was to examine risk factors of respiratory complications at the diagnosis and establish an algorithm of clinical management in children and adolescents with mediastinal tumors.
    We retrospectively collected clinical information of all children and adolescents who presented with mediastinal tumors at Saitama Children\'s Medical Center from 1999 to 2019, including age, sex, pathological diagnosis, eight major clinical symptoms (cough, dyspnea, hypoxia, orthopnea, chest pain, wheeze, superior vena cava syndrome, and stridor), chest computed tomography (CT) findings (tumor location, mediastinal mass ratio, pleural fluid, pericardial effusion, and compression of trachea and bronchi), types of diagnostic procedure and anesthesia, respiratory complications (severe hypoxia, difficult ventilation, respiratory failure, and cardiopulmonary arrest), and clinical outcome. Subsequently, we calculated the risk score for predicting respiratory complications by combining clinical and radiological findings.
    Of the 57 patients, 7 (12%) developed respiratory complications. Cough, dyspnea, hypoxia, and orthopnea were significantly more common in patients with complications (p = 0.02, p = 0.02, p < 0.01, p = 0.03, respectively). The reduction of percentage of tracheal cross-sectional area (%TCA) and compression of the carina in chest CT were also significantly more common in patients with complications (p < 0.01 and <0.01, respectively). We calculated the risk score of respiratory complications by combining cough, wheeze, stridor, orthopnea, dyspnea, hypoxia, %TCA < 0.5, and compression of the carina. A risk score ≥ 7 showed high predictive accuracy for complications (sensitivity: 100%, specificity: 97.7%, positive likelihood ratio: 43.0).
    The risk score combining clinical symptoms with radiological findings is a promising predictive tool for respiratory complications in children with mediastinal tumors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:已知改良腹腔镜肝切除术会失去一些微创优势,并确定因素来预测有风险的患者。腹腔镜右肝切除术的具体证据有望在临床实践中发挥作用,鉴于其技术特点。该研究的目的是识别危险因素并制定腹腔镜右肝切除术转换的风险评分。
    方法:分析在单个肝胆外科中心进行的腹腔镜右肝切除术。将队列分成两半以获得推导和验证集。通过单变量和多变量分析确定转换的危险因素。建立了“转换风险评分”,将每个因素分配为1分,并将评分与每位患者的转换状态进行比较。通过接收器下面积-操作员-特征曲线评估准确性。
    结果:在130个操作中,22个被转换(16.9%)。原因是:45.5%的肿瘤不足,31.8%出血,9.1%粘连,9.1%的胆汁淤积,4.5%麻醉问题。转换的独立危险因素是:以前的腹腔镜肝脏手术(危险比4.9,p0.011),术前化疗(危险比6.2,p0.031),恶性诊断(危险比3.3,第0.037页),接近肝腔汇合或下腔静脉(危险比4.1,第0.029页),肿瘤体积(危险比2.9,p0.024)。转化率与分数呈正相关,当分数从0增加到5时,从0提高到100%(Spearman:推导集中的p0.032,验证集中的p0.020)。从3级到4级,转换的风险急剧增加,估计概率在60%至71.4%之间。评分显示出良好的准确性(接受者下面积-操作者特征曲线0.82)。
    结论:确定了腹腔镜右肝切除术转阴的具体危险因素。这个分数可能有助于标准化这种具有挑战性的切除的纯腹腔镜或开放方法的选择。
    BACKGROUND: Converted laparoscopic hepatectomies are known to lose some advantages of the minimally-invasiveness, and factors are identified to predict patients at risk. Specific evidence for laparoscopic right hepatectomy is expected of usefulness in clinical practice, given its technical peculiarities. The purpose of the study was the identification of risk factors and the development of a risk score for conversion of laparoscopic right hepatectomy.
    METHODS: Laparoscopic right hepatectomy performed at a single hepatobiliary surgical center were analyzed. The cohort was split in half to obtain a derivation and a validation set. Risk factors for conversion were identified by uni- and multivariable analysis. A \"conversion risk score\" was built assigning each factor 1 point and comparing the score with the conversion status for each patient. The accuracy was assessed by the area-under-the-receiver-operator-characteristic-curve.
    RESULTS: Among 130 operations, 22 were converted (16.9%). Reasons were: 45.5% oncologic inadequacy, 31.8% bleeding, 9.1% adhesions, 9.1% biliostasis, 4.5% anaesthesiological problems. Independent risk factors for conversion were: previous laparoscopic liver surgery (Hazard Ratio 4.9, p 0.011), preoperative chemotherapy ( Hazard Ratio 6.2, p 0.031), malignant diagnosis (Hazard Ratio 3.3, p 0.037), closeness to hepatocaval confluence or inferior vena cava (Hazard Ratio 4.1, p 0.029), tumor volume (Hazard Ratio 2.9, p 0.024). Conversion rates correlated positively with the score, raising from 0 to 100% when the score increased from 0 to 5 (Spearman: p 0.032 in the derivation set, p 0.020 in the validation set). The risk of conversion showed a sharp increase passing from class 3 to 4, reaching a probability estimated between 60 and 71.4%. The score showed good accuracy (area-under-the-receiver-operator-characteristic-curve 0.82).
    CONCLUSIONS: Specific risk factors for conversion are identified for laparoscopic right hepatectomy. This score may help in standardizing the choice of a pure laparoscopic or open approach for such challenging resections.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Introduction: Medication discrepancies on hospital discharge are common and occur despite the use of technology to generate electronically created discharge (e-discharge) prescriptions, justifying pharmacist involvement. No published studies have focused on medication discrepancies as a risk factor for readmission. The aim was to explore the relationship between medication discrepancies on discharge and readmission rates, and how both are affected by pharmacist intervention. Objectives: The primary objective was to establish the relationship between medication discrepancies on the e-discharge prescription and hospital readmissions within 30 days of discharge. Secondary objectives were to determine the 30-day readmission rate with and without pharmacist involvement, and risk factors for 30-day readmission. Methods: This was a matched case-control study where cases and controls consisted of patients readmitted and not readmitted to hospital within 30 days of discharge from the general medicine service, respectively. Case patients were defined as patients who had been readmitted to the hospital within 30 days of discharge from the general medicine unit. Control patients were defined as patients who had not been readmitted to the hospital within 30 days of discharge. Chi-square statistics was used to analyze the association between the presence of medication discrepancy at discharge and 30-day readmission. Multivariate logistic regression was used to further analyze the associations to determine which risk factors best relate to 30-day readmission. Results: Between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2017, a total of 401 e-discharge prescriptions were reviewed, and 194 cases were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. Similar proportions of patients were readmitted compared with not readmitted regardless of whether discrepancies were identified on the e-discharge prescriptions, and there was no relationship identified between medication discrepancies and readmission within 30 days (odds ratio [OR] = 1.04; P = .854). The readmission rate with and without pharmacist involvement was similar between the case group (50%) and control group (48.0%). The proportion of discharge prescriptions with discrepancies was 48.8% in the group that had pharmacist involvement and 47.0% in the group that had no pharmacist involvement. Additionally, a LACE score of 12 or greater was identified as a statistically significant risk factor for readmission (OR = 2.13; P < .001). Conclusions: Pharmacist review of the e-discharge prescription did not affect the readmission rate. A LACE score of 12 or greater was associated with a higher risk of readmission. Future studies are needed to identify patient groups at high risk of readmission and to determine pharmacist interventions that could reduce readmission rates.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The burden of sepsis represents a global health care problem. We aimed to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) and its predictors in subjects with sepsis admitted to a general Italian hospital from 2009 to 2016, stratified by risk score.
    We performed a retrospective analysis of all sepsis-related hospitalizations after Emergency Department (ED) visit in a public Italian hospital in an 8-year period. A risk score to predict CFR was computed by logistic regression analysis of selected variables in a training set (2009-2012), and then confirmed in the whole study population. A trend analysis of CFR during the study period was performed dividing patient as high-risk (upper tertile of risk score) or low-risk.
    Two thousand four hundred ninety-two subjects were included. Over time the incidental admission rate (no. of sepsis-related admissions per 100 total admissions) increased from 4.1% (2009-2010) to 5.4% (2015-2016); P < 0.001, accompanied by a reduced CFR (from 38.0 to 18.4%; P < 0.001). A group of 10 variables (admission to intensive care unit, cardio-vascular dysfunction, HIV infection, diabetes, age ≥ 80 years, respiratory diseases, number of organ dysfunction, digestive diseases, dementia and cancer) were selected by the logistic model to predict CFR with good accuracy: AUC 0.873 [0.009]. Along the years CFR decreased from 31.8% (2009-2010) to 25.0% (2015-2016); P = 0.007. The relative proportion of subjects ≥80 years (overall, 52.9% of cases) and classified as high-risk did not change along the years. CFR decreased only in low-risk subjects (from 13.3 to 5.2%; P < 0.001), and particularly in those aged ≥80 (from 18.2 to 6.6%; P = 0.003), but not in high-risk individuals (from 69.9 to 64.2%; P = 0.713).
    Between 2009 and 2016 the incidence of sepsis-related hospitalization increased in a general Italian hospital, with a downward trend in CFR, only limited to low-risk patients and particularly to subjects ≥80 years.
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  • 文章类型: Case Reports
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Background: Although previous studies have explored the associations of modifiable lifestyle factors with oral cancer risk, few studies integrated these factors and established predictive tools for oral cancer risk in different sexes. Methods: Using a case-control study design, a total of 978 oral cancer cases and 2646 healthy controls were recruited in this study. Nomograms were constructed according to significant factors in multivariable logistic regression. Risk scores were calculated based on the nomograms and quantified the risk of oral cancer using restricted cubic spline. Results: Multivariate analyses demonstrated that smoking, alcohol drinking, tea, intake of fish, seafood, vegetables, fruits, teeth loss, regular dental visits and repetitive dental ulcer were independent factors for male oral cancer. Passive smoking, age at first intercourse, cooking oil fumes exposure, tea, intake of beans, vegetables, fruits, teeth loss, regular dental visits and repetitive dental ulcer were associated with female oral cancer. Then, two nomograms were developed for predicting the probability of oral cancer in men and women with the C-index of 0.768 (95% CI: 0.723-0.813) and 0.700 (95% CI: 0.635-0.765), respectively. Restricted cubic splines graphically revealed the risk of oral cancer in individuals with different risk scores. Moreover, the risk escalated continuously with the increasing number of the risk scores among both sexes. Conclusions: Combining nomograms with risk scores developed in this study could precisely predict oral cancer occurrence and provide an accurate risk assessment.
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