Climate change adaption

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究全面分析了希拉库德水库的水文影响和洪水风险,考虑不同的CMIP6气候变化情景。使用HEC-HMS和HEC-RAS模型,该研究评估了未来的流动模式和大坝破裂的潜在影响。本文的工作总结如下:首先,HEC-HMS模型使用来自Basantpur站的每日阶段放电观测值进行校准和验证。校准和验证的确定系数(R2)值为0.764和0.858,分别,该模型表现出令人满意的性能。其次,HEC-HMS模型预测了三种气候变化情景下(SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)和三个未来时期(不久的将来,未来中期和遥远的未来)。第三,通过分析时间序列水文图,这项研究确定了洪水泛滥的高峰事件。此外,HEC-RAS模型用于评估大坝破坏的影响。Hirakud大坝下游,该分析突出了潜在的淹没面积和深度变化。该研究确定了以下最严重洪水情景的淹没面积:在不久的将来,3651.52km2,2931.46km2和4207.6km2,中期和遥远的未来时期,分别。此外,这些情况下的最大洪水深度确定为31米,29米和39米为各自的未来时期。研究区域确定了105个脆弱村庄和几个城镇。这项研究强调了考虑气候变化情景并采取积极措施以减轻希拉库德水库地区洪水泛滥的重要性。
    This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the hydrological effects and flood risks of the Hirakud Reservoir, considering different CMIP6 climate change scenarios. Using the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models, the study evaluates future flow patterns and the potential repercussions of dam breaches. The following summary of the work: firstly, the HEC-HMS model is calibrated and validated using daily stage-discharge observations from the Basantpur station. With coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.764 and 0.858 for calibration and validation, respectively, the model demonstrates satisfactory performance. Secondly, The HEC-HMS model predicts future flow for the Hirakud Reservoir under three climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and for three future periods (near future, mid future and far future). Thirdly, by analyzing time-series hydrographs, the study identifies peak flooding events. In addition, the HEC-RAS model is used to assess the effects of dam breaches. Downstream of the Hirakud Dam, the analysis highlights potential inundation areas and depth variations. The study determines the following inundation areas for the worst flood scenarios: 3651.52 km2, 2931.46 km2 and 4207.6 km2 for the near-future, mid-future and far-future periods, respectively. In addition, the utmost flood depths for these scenarios are determined to be 31 m, 29 m and 39 m for the respective future periods. The study area identifies 105 vulnerable villages and several towns. This study emphasizes the importance of contemplating climate change scenarios and implementing proactive measures to mitigate the peak flooding events in the Hirakud reservoir region.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国对谷物需求的快速增长预计将在未来几十年继续,主要是由于生产富含蛋白质食物的饲料需求增加。这引起了人们对气候变化下中国农业未来供应潜力和中国对世界粮食市场依赖程度的高度关注。虽然农学和气候经济学的现有文献表明,气候变化对水稻的不利影响占主导地位,小麦,和玉米产量,缺乏评估气候变化引起的多作机会变化的研究。通过每年从给定地块收获一次以上,多作有利于作物生产。为了解决这一重要差距,我们在农业生态区(AEZ)建模框架内建立了一个程序,以评估多作条件的未来空间变化。该评估基于耦合模型相互比较项目第五阶段中四个代表性浓度途径方案下的五个一般循环模型的集合,并考虑了缺水约束。结果表明,单,double-,和未来的三作区,这将为基于作物轮作的适应提供良好的机会。越来越多的种植机会将能够在当前的灌溉效率下将年谷物生产潜力平均提高89(±49)Mt,在现代化的灌溉效率下提高143(±46)Mt,并在基线之间提高(1981-2010)和21世纪中叶(2041-2070)。
    The rapid growth of China\'s demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China\'s dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981-2010) and the mid-21st century (2041-2070).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在21世纪,二氧化碳排放导致了不利的气候变化;同时,气候变化的影响给全世界带来了挑战,特别是在发展中国家,中国是受影响最严重的国家之一。评估气候变化的影响需要全面处理文献中的大量数据。在这项研究中,采用基于文本的分类方法和文献映射对海量文献进行处理,并根据其位置进行映射。共39339篇中国学术研究,36584篇中国硕士论文和博士论文,从2000年到2022年,从中国国家知识基础设施数据库中提取了气候变化影响的证据。我们的结果表明,在过去的几十年中,有关气候变化影响的文献激增。这表明中国对气候变化加剧的影响日益重视。更重要的是,通过将文献的地理位置映射到空间网格数据中,我们的结果表明,超过36.09%的土地面积显示出明显的气候变化证据。这些地区占国内生产总值(GDP)的89.29%,占中国人口的85.06%。此外,我们收集的关于气候变化影响的研究显示出巨大的空间异质性。研究的热点地区普遍位于发达地区,如BTH城市群和长江经济带,山东、河南等农业主产区,包括云南在内的生态脆弱地区,新疆,内蒙古。考虑到气候变化证据在空间上的不平衡,有助于更好地理解气候变化给中国带来的挑战。评估气候变化的证据对于适应气候变化具有重要意义。与自然生态系统服务和人类健康密切相关。这项研究将为应对气候事件提供政策启示,并指导未来的研究。
    In the 21st century, carbon dioxide emissions have led to adverse climate changes; meanwhile, the impact of climate change has imposed challenges worldwide, particularly in developing countries, and China is one of the most affected countries. Assessing the impact of climate change requires handling a large amount of data in the literature comprehensively. In this study, a text-based classification method and literature mapping were used to process the massive literature and map it according to its location. A total of 39,339 Chinese academic studies and 36,584 Chinese master\'s and doctoral theses, from 2000 to 2022, with evidence of the impact of climate change were extracted from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database. Our results show that the literature on climate change impacts has exploded during the last decades. This indicates that increasing attention to the intensified impact of climate change in China has been paid. More importantly, by mapping the geolocation of the literature into spatial grid data, our results show that over 36.09% of the land area shows clear evidence of climate change. Those areas contribute to 89.29% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and comprise 85.06% of the population in China. Furthermore, the studies we collected on the climate change impacts showed a huge spatial heterogeneity. The hotspot areas of research were generally located in developed regions, such as the BTH urban agglomeration and Yangtze River Economic Zone, major agricultural production areas such as Shandong and Henan, and ecologically fragile regions including Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. Considering the imbalance spatially of the evidence of climate change can help in a better understanding of the challenges in China imposed by climate change. Appraising the evidence of climate change is of great significance for adapting to climate change, which is closely related to the natural ecosystem services and human health. This study will provide policy implications for coping with climatic events and guide future research.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在气温升高的时候,问题是人体如何适应。当假设气候变化导致适应时,时间序列分析应该揭示最佳温度的变化。由于位于中欧的阿尔卑斯山山脉,维也纳市尤其受到气候变化的影响。根据死亡率数据,我们使用泊松回归模型计算了维也纳49年的最佳温度变化。结果显示最佳温度的变化,最佳温度增加超过平均温度。因此,结果清楚地表明了一个适应过程,比更冷的温度更适应温暖。然而,一些年龄组仍然比其他年龄组更脆弱,更不能够适应。应鼓励针对弱势群体的进一步研究。
    In times of rising temperatures, the question arises on how the human body adapts. When assumed that changing climate leads to adaptation, time series analysis should reveal a shift in optimal temperatures. The city of Vienna is especially affected by climate change due to its location in the Alpine Range in Middle Europe. Based on mortality data, we calculated shifts in optimal temperature for a time period of 49 years in Vienna with Poisson regression models. Results show a shift in optimal temperature, with optimal temperature increasing more than average temperature. Hence, results clearly show an adaptation process, with more adaptation to warmer than colder temperatures. Nevertheless, some age groups remain more vulnerable than others and less able to adapt. Further research focusing on vulnerable groups should be encouraged.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Local authorities have a crucial role in preparing for the impacts of climate change. However, the extent to which health impacts are being prioritized and acted on is not well understood.
    We investigated the role of public health in adapting to climate change through: (i) a content analysis of local authority climate change adaptation strategies in South West England and (ii) semi-structured telephone interviews with local authority public health consultants and sustainability officers and a regional Public Health England representative (n = 11).
    Adaptation strategies/plans varied in existence and scope. Public health consultants did not have an explicit remit for climate change adaptation, although related action often aligned with public health\'s emergency planning functions. Key barriers to health-related adaptation were financial constraints, lack of leadership and limited public and professional awareness about health impacts.
    Local authorities in South West England have differing approaches to tackling health impacts of climate change, and the prominence of public health arguments for adaptation varies. Improved public health intelligence, concise communications, targeted support, visible local and national leadership and clarity on economic costs and benefits of adaptation would be useful for local authorities in preparing for the health impacts of climate change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality.
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