Climate change adaption

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国对谷物需求的快速增长预计将在未来几十年继续,主要是由于生产富含蛋白质食物的饲料需求增加。这引起了人们对气候变化下中国农业未来供应潜力和中国对世界粮食市场依赖程度的高度关注。虽然农学和气候经济学的现有文献表明,气候变化对水稻的不利影响占主导地位,小麦,和玉米产量,缺乏评估气候变化引起的多作机会变化的研究。通过每年从给定地块收获一次以上,多作有利于作物生产。为了解决这一重要差距,我们在农业生态区(AEZ)建模框架内建立了一个程序,以评估多作条件的未来空间变化。该评估基于耦合模型相互比较项目第五阶段中四个代表性浓度途径方案下的五个一般循环模型的集合,并考虑了缺水约束。结果表明,单,double-,和未来的三作区,这将为基于作物轮作的适应提供良好的机会。越来越多的种植机会将能够在当前的灌溉效率下将年谷物生产潜力平均提高89(±49)Mt,在现代化的灌溉效率下提高143(±46)Mt,并在基线之间提高(1981-2010)和21世纪中叶(2041-2070)。
    The rapid growth of China\'s demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China\'s dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981-2010) and the mid-21st century (2041-2070).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在气温升高的时候,问题是人体如何适应。当假设气候变化导致适应时,时间序列分析应该揭示最佳温度的变化。由于位于中欧的阿尔卑斯山山脉,维也纳市尤其受到气候变化的影响。根据死亡率数据,我们使用泊松回归模型计算了维也纳49年的最佳温度变化。结果显示最佳温度的变化,最佳温度增加超过平均温度。因此,结果清楚地表明了一个适应过程,比更冷的温度更适应温暖。然而,一些年龄组仍然比其他年龄组更脆弱,更不能够适应。应鼓励针对弱势群体的进一步研究。
    In times of rising temperatures, the question arises on how the human body adapts. When assumed that changing climate leads to adaptation, time series analysis should reveal a shift in optimal temperatures. The city of Vienna is especially affected by climate change due to its location in the Alpine Range in Middle Europe. Based on mortality data, we calculated shifts in optimal temperature for a time period of 49 years in Vienna with Poisson regression models. Results show a shift in optimal temperature, with optimal temperature increasing more than average temperature. Hence, results clearly show an adaptation process, with more adaptation to warmer than colder temperatures. Nevertheless, some age groups remain more vulnerable than others and less able to adapt. Further research focusing on vulnerable groups should be encouraged.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Local authorities have a crucial role in preparing for the impacts of climate change. However, the extent to which health impacts are being prioritized and acted on is not well understood.
    We investigated the role of public health in adapting to climate change through: (i) a content analysis of local authority climate change adaptation strategies in South West England and (ii) semi-structured telephone interviews with local authority public health consultants and sustainability officers and a regional Public Health England representative (n = 11).
    Adaptation strategies/plans varied in existence and scope. Public health consultants did not have an explicit remit for climate change adaptation, although related action often aligned with public health\'s emergency planning functions. Key barriers to health-related adaptation were financial constraints, lack of leadership and limited public and professional awareness about health impacts.
    Local authorities in South West England have differing approaches to tackling health impacts of climate change, and the prominence of public health arguments for adaptation varies. Improved public health intelligence, concise communications, targeted support, visible local and national leadership and clarity on economic costs and benefits of adaptation would be useful for local authorities in preparing for the health impacts of climate change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality.
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