关键词: climate change adaption optimal temperature temperature-related mortality threshold temperature time series analysis

Mesh : Acclimatization Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Austria Child Child, Preschool Cities Climate Change Environmental Health Female Hot Temperature Humans Infant Male Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Poisson Distribution Young Adult

来  源:   DOI:10.3390/ijerph17010097   PDF(Sci-hub)   PDF(Pubmed)

Abstract:
In times of rising temperatures, the question arises on how the human body adapts. When assumed that changing climate leads to adaptation, time series analysis should reveal a shift in optimal temperatures. The city of Vienna is especially affected by climate change due to its location in the Alpine Range in Middle Europe. Based on mortality data, we calculated shifts in optimal temperature for a time period of 49 years in Vienna with Poisson regression models. Results show a shift in optimal temperature, with optimal temperature increasing more than average temperature. Hence, results clearly show an adaptation process, with more adaptation to warmer than colder temperatures. Nevertheless, some age groups remain more vulnerable than others and less able to adapt. Further research focusing on vulnerable groups should be encouraged.
摘要:
在气温升高的时候,问题是人体如何适应。当假设气候变化导致适应时,时间序列分析应该揭示最佳温度的变化。由于位于中欧的阿尔卑斯山山脉,维也纳市尤其受到气候变化的影响。根据死亡率数据,我们使用泊松回归模型计算了维也纳49年的最佳温度变化。结果显示最佳温度的变化,最佳温度增加超过平均温度。因此,结果清楚地表明了一个适应过程,比更冷的温度更适应温暖。然而,一些年龄组仍然比其他年龄组更脆弱,更不能够适应。应鼓励针对弱势群体的进一步研究。
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