Abstract：
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the hydrological effects and flood risks of the Hirakud Reservoir, considering different CMIP6 climate change scenarios. Using the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models, the study evaluates future flow patterns and the potential repercussions of dam breaches. The following summary of the work: firstly, the HEC-HMS model is calibrated and validated using daily stage-discharge observations from the Basantpur station. With coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.764 and 0.858 for calibration and validation, respectively, the model demonstrates satisfactory performance. Secondly, The HEC-HMS model predicts future flow for the Hirakud Reservoir under three climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and for three future periods (near future, mid future and far future). Thirdly, by analyzing time-series hydrographs, the study identifies peak flooding events. In addition, the HEC-RAS model is used to assess the effects of dam breaches. Downstream of the Hirakud Dam, the analysis highlights potential inundation areas and depth variations. The study determines the following inundation areas for the worst flood scenarios: 3651.52 km2, 2931.46 km2 and 4207.6 km2 for the near-future, mid-future and far-future periods, respectively. In addition, the utmost flood depths for these scenarios are determined to be 31 m, 29 m and 39 m for the respective future periods. The study area identifies 105 vulnerable villages and several towns. This study emphasizes the importance of contemplating climate change scenarios and implementing proactive measures to mitigate the peak flooding events in the Hirakud reservoir region.
摘要：
本研究全面分析了希拉库德水库的水文影响和洪水风险,考虑不同的CMIP6气候变化情景。使用HEC-HMS和HEC-RAS模型，该研究评估了未来的流动模式和大坝破裂的潜在影响。本文的工作总结如下:首先,HEC-HMS模型使用来自Basantpur站的每日阶段放电观测值进行校准和验证。校准和验证的确定系数（R2）值为0.764和0.858，分别,该模型表现出令人满意的性能。其次,HEC-HMS模型预测了三种气候变化情景下（SSP2-4.5，SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）和三个未来时期（不久的将来，未来中期和遥远的未来)。第三，通过分析时间序列水文图，这项研究确定了洪水泛滥的高峰事件。此外,HEC-RAS模型用于评估大坝破坏的影响。Hirakud大坝下游,该分析突出了潜在的淹没面积和深度变化。该研究确定了以下最严重洪水情景的淹没面积：在不久的将来，3651.52km2，2931.46km2和4207.6km2，中期和遥远的未来时期，分别。此外,这些情况下的最大洪水深度确定为31米，29米和39米为各自的未来时期。研究区域确定了105个脆弱村庄和几个城镇。这项研究强调了考虑气候变化情景并采取积极措施以减轻希拉库德水库地区洪水泛滥的重要性。
