Outcome prediction

结果预测
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自然语言处理(NLP)是机器学习的一个子领域,可以促进治疗师与客户的互动评估,并向治疗师提供大规模客户结果的反馈。然而,有有限的研究将NLP模型应用于客户结果预测,这些研究(a)使用治疗师-客户互动的转录本作为客户症状改善的直接预测因子,(b)考虑到语境语言的复杂性,以及(c)在模型开发中使用经典训练和测试拆分的最佳实践。使用来自795名客户和56名治疗师的2,630次会议记录,我们开发了NLP模型,该模型基于上一次会话的会话记录(Spearman的rho=0.32,p<.001)直接预测给定会话的客户症状。我们的结果强调了NLP模型在结果监测系统中实施以提高护理质量的潜力。我们讨论了对未来研究和应用的影响。
    Natural language processing (NLP) is a subfield of machine learning that may facilitate the evaluation of therapist-client interactions and provide feedback to therapists on client outcomes on a large scale. However, there have been limited studies applying NLP models to client outcome prediction that have (a) used transcripts of therapist-client interactions as direct predictors of client symptom improvement, (b) accounted for contextual linguistic complexities, and (c) used best practices in classical training and test splits in model development. Using 2,630 session recordings from 795 clients and 56 therapists, we developed NLP models that directly predicted client symptoms of a given session based on session recordings of the previous session (Spearman\'s rho =0.32, p<.001). Our results highlight the potential for NLP models to be implemented in outcome monitoring systems to improve quality of care. We discuss implications for future research and applications.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:酒精相关性肝病(ALD)的结果受几个种族和种族因素的影响,然而,它在疾病不同阶段的连续患者中的自然史是未知的。
    方法:我们从2011年至2018年对美国成年人进行了一项回顾性队列研究,使用三个具有全国代表性的数据库来检查种族和族裔群体在相关结局方面的潜在差异。我们的分析包括逻辑回归和线性回归,以及相互竞争的风险分析。
    结果:黑人个体的每日饮酒量最高(12.6克/天),而西班牙裔参与者的重度间歇性饮酒患病率最高(33.5%)。在多变量调整模型中,与非西班牙裔白人受访者相比,西班牙裔和亚裔参与者的ALD患病率较高(分别为OR:1.4,95%CI:1.1-1.8和OR:1.595%CI:1.1-2.0),而黑人参与者的ALD患病率较低(OR:.795%CI:.6-.9),并且由于ALD导致住院期间的死亡风险较低(OR:.8395%CI:.73-.94)。最后,一项多变量竞争风险分析显示,如果等待ALD(SHR:.7,95%CI:.6-.8)以及女性亚裔人群(HR:.40,95%CI:.26-.62),西班牙裔种族的肝移植概率降低.
    结论:在考虑了关键的社会和生物健康决定因素之后,西班牙裔人口显示ALD患病率的风险增加,即使饮酒量较低。此外,与其他入伍患者相比,西班牙裔和亚裔女性患者的肝移植机会减少。
    BACKGROUND: Outcomes in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) are influenced by several race and ethnic factors, yet its natural history across the continuum of patients in different stages of the disease is unknown.
    METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of U.S. adults from 2011 to 2018, using three nationally representative databases to examine potential disparities in relevant outcomes among racial and ethnic groups. Our analysis included logistic and linear regressions, along with competing risk analysis.
    RESULTS: Black individuals had the highest daily alcohol consumption (12.6 g/day) while Hispanic participants had the largest prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (33.5%). In a multivariable-adjusted model, Hispanic and Asian participants were independently associated with a higher ALD prevalence compared to Non-Hispanic White interviewees (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8 and OR: 1.5 95% CI:1.1-2.0, respectively), while Blacks participants had a lower ALD prevalence (OR: .7 95% CI: .6-.9), and a lower risk of mortality during hospitalization due to ALD (OR: .83 95% CI: .73-.94). Finally, a multivariate competing-risk analysis showed that Hispanic ethnicity had a decreased probability of liver transplantation if waitlisted for ALD (SHR: .7, 95% CI: .6-.8) along with female Asian population (HR: .40, 95% CI: .26-.62).
    CONCLUSIONS: After accounting for key social and biological health determinants, the Hispanic population showed an increased risk of ALD prevalence, even with lower alcohol consumption. Additionally, Hispanic and Asian female patients had reduced access to liver transplantation compared to other enlisted patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:很难预测哪些机械通气患者最终需要气管切开术,这进一步使他们容易受到不必要的自主呼吸试验的影响。呼吸机上的额外时间,增加成本,和进一步的通气相关并发症,如声门下狭窄。在这项研究中,我们的目标是开发一种机器学习工具来预测哪些患者在入住重症监护病房(ICU)时需要气管造口术.
    方法:回顾性队列研究。
    方法:2014年至2015年335个重症监护病房的多中心研究。
    方法:使用eICU合作研究数据库(eICU-CRD)获得患者队列。纳入标准包括:(1)年龄>18岁和(2)需要机械通气的ICU入院。感兴趣的主要结果包括通过二元分类模型评估的气管造口术。模型包括逻辑回归(LR),随机森林(RF),和极端梯度提升(XGBoost)。
    结果:在38,508例侵入性机械通气患者中,1605例患者接受了气管造口术。XGBoost,射频,和LR模型的AUROC分别为0.794、0.780和0.775。将XGBoost模型限制为331个中的20个特征,观察到AUROC为0.778的性能降低最小。使用Shapley加法解释,主要特征是入院诊断为肺炎或败血症以及慢性呼吸衰竭的合并症.
    结论:我们的机器学习模型准确地预测了患者在入住ICU后最终需要进行气管造口术的概率。经过前瞻性验证,我们有可能采取早期干预措施,减少长时间通气的并发症.
    OBJECTIVE: It is difficult to predict which mechanically ventilated patients will ultimately require a tracheostomy which further predisposes them to unnecessary spontaneous breathing trials, additional time on the ventilator, increased costs, and further ventilation-related complications such as subglottic stenosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a machine learning tool to predict which patients need a tracheostomy at the onset of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU).
    METHODS: Retrospective Cohort Study.
    METHODS: Multicenter Study of 335 Intensive Care Units between 2014 and 2015.
    METHODS: The eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) was utilized to obtain the patient cohort. Inclusion criteria included: (1) Age >18 years and (2) ICU admission requiring mechanical ventilation. The primary outcome of interest included tracheostomy assessed via a binary classification model. Models included logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost).
    RESULTS: Of 38,508 invasively mechanically ventilated patients, 1605 patients underwent a tracheostomy. The XGBoost, RF, and LR models had fair performances at an AUROC 0.794, 0.780, and 0.775 respectively. Limiting the XGBoost model to 20 features out of 331, a minimal reduction in performance was observed with an AUROC of 0.778. Using Shapley Additive Explanations, the top features were an admission diagnosis of pneumonia or sepsis and comorbidity of chronic respiratory failure.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our machine learning model accurately predicts the probability that a patient will eventually require a tracheostomy upon ICU admission, and upon prospective validation, we have the potential to institute earlier interventions and reduce the complications of prolonged ventilation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们介绍一个创新的,简单,有效的无分割方法,用于从PET/CT图像中分析头颈部癌症(HNC)患者的生存。通过利用基于深度学习的特征提取技术和应用于氟脱氧葡萄糖正电子发射断层扫描(FDG-PET)图像的多角度最大强度投影(MA-MIP),我们提出的方法无需手动分割感兴趣区域(ROI),如原发性肿瘤和受累淋巴结.相反,一个国家的最先进的对象检测模型是利用CT图像进行自动裁剪的头颈部解剖区域,而不仅仅是PET体积上的病变或涉及的淋巴结。然后利用预训练的深度卷积神经网络骨干来从从裁剪的PET体积的72个多角度轴向旋转获得的MA-MIP提取深度特征。从PET体积的多个投影视图中提取的这些深层特征然后被聚合和融合,并用于对489例HNC患者进行无复发生存分析。对于无复发生存分析的任务,所提出的方法优于目标数据集上的最佳性能方法。通过避免在FDGPET-CT图像上手动描绘恶性肿瘤,我们的方法消除了对主观解释的依赖性,并大大提高了所提出的生存分析方法的可重复性.此工作的代码已公开发布。
    We introduce an innovative, simple, effective segmentation-free approach for survival analysis of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients from PET/CT images. By harnessing deep learning-based feature extraction techniques and multi-angle maximum intensity projections (MA-MIPs) applied to Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography (FDG-PET) images, our proposed method eliminates the need for manual segmentations of regions-of-interest (ROIs) such as primary tumors and involved lymph nodes. Instead, a state-of-the-art object detection model is trained utilizing the CT images to perform automatic cropping of the head and neck anatomical area, instead of only the lesions or involved lymph nodes on the PET volumes. A pre-trained deep convolutional neural network backbone is then utilized to extract deep features from MA-MIPs obtained from 72 multi-angel axial rotations of the cropped PET volumes. These deep features extracted from multiple projection views of the PET volumes are then aggregated and fused, and employed to perform recurrence-free survival analysis on a cohort of 489 HNC patients. The proposed approach outperforms the best performing method on the target dataset for the task of recurrence-free survival analysis. By circumventing the manual delineation of the malignancies on the FDG PET-CT images, our approach eliminates the dependency on subjective interpretations and highly enhances the reproducibility of the proposed survival analysis method. The code for this work is publicly released.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:创伤性脑损伤(TBI)评估和预后的准确性对于有效的分诊和知情的治疗策略至关重要。虽然格拉斯哥昏迷量表(GCS)仍然是TBI评估的基石,它忽略了关键的主要影像学发现。赫尔辛基得分(HS)一种旨在整合放射学数据的新工具,提供了一种有前途的方法来预测TBI结果。本研究旨在评估在大量TBI患者队列中HS与GCS的预后功效。
    方法:这项回顾性研究涵盖了2008年至2019年在我们机构接受治疗的TBI患者,特别是入院GCS为14或更低的患者。我们评估了初始GCS和来自主要CT扫描的HS。主要结果指标包括格拉斯哥预后量表(GOS)和出院时以及出院后6个月和12个月的死亡率。通过接收器工作特征(ROC)曲线和Kendalltau-b相关系数针对每种结果分析了GCS和HS的预测性能。
    结果:该研究包括544名患者,平均年龄为62.2±21.5岁,初始GCS中位数为14,HS中位数为3。出院时的死亡率为8.6%,GOS中位数为4。GCS和HS均与死亡率和GOS结果显著相关(p<0.05)。值得注意的是,与GCS(τb=-0.11)相比,HS与死亡率(τb=0.36)以及与GOS结局(HSvs.对于GCS,τb=0.33)。ROC分析证实了HS对两种死亡率的预测准确性均高于GCS(HS的AUC为0.79,与GCS为0.62)和总体结果(HS的AUC为0.77GCS为0.71)。
    结论:研究结果验证了德国大型队列中的HS,并表明仅放射学评估,以HS为例,在预测TBI结果方面可以超越传统的GCS。然而,HS,尽管它的功效,缺乏临床评估的整合,TBI管理中的重要组成部分。这强调了需要一种综合放射学和临床见解的整体方法,以便在TBI护理中进行更全面和准确的预测。
    BACKGROUND: The precision of assessment and prognosis in traumatic brain injury (TBI) is paramount for effective triage and informed therapeutic strategies. While the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) remains the cornerstone for TBI evaluation, it overlooks critical primary imaging findings. The Helsinki Score (HS), a novel tool designed to incorporate radiological data, offers a promising approach to predicting TBI outcomes. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic efficacy of HS in comparison to GCS across a substantial TBI patient cohort.
    METHODS: This retrospective study encompassed TBI patients treated at our institution between 2008 and 2019, specifically those with an admission GCS of 14 or lower. We assessed both the initial GCS and the HS derived from primary CT scans. Key outcome metrics included the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and mortality rates at hospital discharge and at 6 and 12-month intervals post-discharge. Predictive performances of GCS and HS were analyzed through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Kendall tau-b correlation coefficients against each outcome.
    RESULTS: The study included 544 patients, with an average age of 62.2 ± 21.5 years, median initial GCS of 14, and a median HS of 3. The mortality rate at discharge stood at 8.6%, with a median GOS of 4. Both GCS and HS demonstrated significant correlations with mortality and GOS outcomes (p < 0.05). Notably, HS showed a markedly superior correlation with mortality (τb = 0.36) compared to GCS (τb = -0.11) and with GOS outcomes (τb = -0.40 for HS vs. τb = 0.33 for GCS). ROC analyses affirmed HS\'s enhanced predictive accuracy over GCS for both mortality (AUC of 0.79 for HS vs. 0.62 for GCS) and overall outcomes (AUC of 0.77 for HS vs. 0.71 for GCS).
    CONCLUSIONS: The findings validate the HS in a large German cohort and suggest that radiological assessments alone, as exemplified by HS, can surpass the traditional GCS in predicting TBI outcomes. However, the HS, despite its efficacy, lacks the integration of clinical evaluation, a vital component in TBI management. This underscores the necessity for a holistic approach that amalgamates both radiological and clinical insights for a more comprehensive and accurate prognostication in TBI care.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:临床预测模型(CPM),例如SCOAP-CERTAIN工具,可以通过提供结果的定量估计来提高腰椎融合手术的决策,帮助外科医生评估每个患者的潜在益处和风险。在CPM中,外部验证对于评估初始数据集之外的可泛化性至关重要。这确保了在不同人群中的表现,结果的可靠性和现实世界的适用性。因此,我们在外部验证了奥斯威西残疾指数(ODI)改善的可预测性工具,背部和腿部疼痛(血压,LP)。
    方法:获得来自多中心注册的前瞻性和回顾性数据。作为结果指标,选择ODI的最小临床重要变化,在腰椎融合治疗退行性疾病后12个月,BP和LP的数字评定量表(NRS)降低≥15分和≥2分。我们通过计算辨别和校准指标,如截距,斜坡,Brier分数,预期/观察到的比率,Hosmer-Lemeshow(HL),AUC,敏感性和特异性。
    结果:我们包括1115例患者,平均年龄60.8±12.5岁。对于12个月的ODI,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.70,校准截距和斜率分别为1.01和0.84.对于NRSBP,AUC为0.72,校准截距为0.97,斜率为0.87。对于NRSLP,AUC为0.70,校准截距为0.04,斜率为0.72。敏感性范围为0.63至0.96,而特异性范围为0.15至0.68。基于HL测试,发现所有三个模型都缺乏拟合。
    结论:利用来自跨国注册管理机构的数据,我们在外部验证了SCOAP-CERTAIN预测工具。该模型证明了对预测概率的公平区分和校准,在临床实践中应用时需要谨慎。我们建议未来的CPM专注于预测该患者人群的长期预后,强调稳健校准和全面报告的重要性。
    BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models (CPM), such as the SCOAP-CERTAIN tool, can be utilized to enhance decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery by providing quantitative estimates of outcomes, aiding surgeons in assessing potential benefits and risks for each individual patient. External validation is crucial in CPM to assess generalizability beyond the initial dataset. This ensures performance in diverse populations, reliability and real-world applicability of the results. Therefore, we externally validated the tool for predictability of improvement in oswestry disability index (ODI), back and leg pain (BP, LP).
    METHODS: Prospective and retrospective data from multicenter registry was obtained. As outcome measure minimum clinically important change was chosen for ODI with ≥ 15-point and ≥ 2-point reduction for numeric rating scales (NRS) for BP and LP 12 months after lumbar fusion for degenerative disease. We externally validate this tool by calculating discrimination and calibration metrics such as intercept, slope, Brier Score, expected/observed ratio, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL), AUC, sensitivity and specificity.
    RESULTS: We included 1115 patients, average age 60.8 ± 12.5 years. For 12-month ODI, area-under-the-curve (AUC) was 0.70, the calibration intercept and slope were 1.01 and 0.84, respectively. For NRS BP, AUC was 0.72, with calibration intercept of 0.97 and slope of 0.87. For NRS LP, AUC was 0.70, with calibration intercept of 0.04 and slope of 0.72. Sensitivity ranged from 0.63 to 0.96, while specificity ranged from 0.15 to 0.68. Lack of fit was found for all three models based on HL testing.
    CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing data from a multinational registry, we externally validate the SCOAP-CERTAIN prediction tool. The model demonstrated fair discrimination and calibration of predicted probabilities, necessitating caution in applying it in clinical practice. We suggest that future CPMs focus on predicting longer-term prognosis for this patient population, emphasizing the significance of robust calibration and thorough reporting.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究旨在阐明定量SSTR-PET指标和临床病理生物标志物在接受肽受体放射性核素治疗(PRRT)的神经内分泌肿瘤(NETs)的无进展生存期(PFS)和总生存期(OS)中的作用。方法:回顾性分析91例NET患者(M47/F44;年龄66岁,范围34-90年),谁完成了四个周期的标准177Lu-DOTATATE进行。使用半自动工作流程从治疗前SSTR-PET图像中分割出SSTR-狂热肿瘤,并根据解剖区域标记肿瘤。针对PRRT反应分析了多种基于图像的特征,包括总的和器官特异性的肿瘤体积和SSTR密度以及临床病理生物标志物,包括Ki-67,嗜铬粒蛋白A(CgA)和碱性磷酸酶(ALP)。结果:中位OS为39.4个月(95%CI:33.1-NA个月),而中位PFS为23.9个月(95%CI:19.3-32.4个月).SSTR总肿瘤体积(HR=3.6;P=0.07)和骨肿瘤体积(HR=1.5;P=0.003)与较短的OS相关。此外,肿瘤总体积(HR=4.3;P=0.01),肝肿瘤体积(HR=1.8;P=0.05)和骨肿瘤体积(HR=1.4;P=0.01)与较短的PFS相关。此外,SSTR摄取低的大病灶体积与OS(HR=1.4;P=0.03)和PFS(HR=1.5;P=0.003)相关.在生物标志物中,基线CgA和ALP升高与OS(CgA:HR=4.9;P=0.003,ALP:HR=52.6;P=0.004)和PFS(CgA:HR=4.2;P=0.002,ALP:HR=9.4;P=0.06)均呈负相关.同样,既往系统治疗次数与较短的OS(HR=1.4;P=0.003)和PFS(HR=1.2;P=0.05)相关.此外,源自中肠原发部位的肿瘤显示出更长的PFS,与胰腺相比(HR=1.6;P=0.16),和那些分类为未知的原发性(HR=3.0;P=0.002)。结论:基于图像的特征,如SSTR-avid肿瘤体积,骨肿瘤受累,并且具有低SSTR表达的大肿瘤的存在证明了PFS的显着预测价值,提示NETs管理中潜在的临床效用。此外,CGA和ALP升高,随着先前系统治疗的数量增加,成为与PRRT结果较差相关的重要因素。
    Purpose: This study aims to elucidate the role of quantitative SSTR-PET metrics and clinicopathological biomarkers in the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) treated with peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT). Methods: A retrospective analysis including 91 NET patients (M47/F44; age 66 years, range 34-90 years) who completed four cycles of standard 177Lu-DOTATATE was conducted. SSTR-avid tumors were segmented from pretherapy SSTR-PET images using a semiautomatic workflow with the tumors labeled based on the anatomical regions. Multiple image-based features including total and organ-specific tumor volume and SSTR density along with clinicopathological biomarkers including Ki-67, chromogranin A (CgA) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) were analyzed with respect to the PRRT response. Results: The median OS was 39.4 months (95% CI: 33.1-NA months), while the median PFS was 23.9 months (95% CI: 19.3-32.4 months). Total SSTR-avid tumor volume (HR = 3.6; P = 0.07) and bone tumor volume (HR = 1.5; P = 0.003) were associated with shorter OS. Also, total tumor volume (HR = 4.3; P = 0.01), liver tumor volume (HR = 1.8; P = 0.05) and bone tumor volume (HR = 1.4; P = 0.01) were associated with shorter PFS. Furthermore, the presence of large lesion volume with low SSTR uptake was correlated with worse OS (HR = 1.4; P = 0.03) and PFS (HR = 1.5; P = 0.003). Among the biomarkers, elevated baseline CgA and ALP showed a negative association with both OS (CgA: HR = 4.9; P = 0.003, ALP: HR = 52.6; P = 0.004) and PFS (CgA: HR = 4.2; P = 0.002, ALP: HR = 9.4; P = 0.06). Similarly, number of prior systemic treatments was associated with shorter OS (HR = 1.4; P = 0.003) and PFS (HR = 1.2; P = 0.05). Additionally, tumors originating from the midgut primary site demonstrated longer PFS, compared to the pancreas (HR = 1.6; P = 0.16), and those categorized as unknown primary (HR = 3.0; P = 0.002). Conclusion: Image-based features such as SSTR-avid tumor volume, bone tumor involvement, and the presence of large tumors with low SSTR expression demonstrated significant predictive value for PFS, suggesting potential clinical utility in NETs management. Moreover, elevated CgA and ALP, along with an increased number of prior systemic treatments, emerged as significant factors associated with worse PRRT outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对于患有单心室心脏病的婴儿,与间期相比,第2阶段手术(S2P)后的时间被认为是较低的风险期;但是,显著的发病率和死亡率仍然存在。
    本研究旨在确定S2P手术与1岁生日之间死亡或移植转诊的危险因素。
    在2016年至2022年期间接受了阶段性单心室姑息治疗并存活至S2P的国家儿科心脏病学质量改进合作组织中的婴儿的回顾性队列分析。进行多变量逻辑回归和分类和回归树,以确定S2P后死亡率和移植转诊的危险因素。
    在该队列中存活到S2P的1,455名患者中,5.2%死亡,2.3%转诊接受移植。S2P后30天和100天的总体事件发生率分别为2%和5%,分别。死亡率和移植转诊的独立危险因素包括已知遗传综合征的存在,第1阶段程序(S1P)中的分流类型,S1P三尖瓣修复,S1P后拔管和再插管的时间更长,S2P前≥中度三尖瓣反流,在S2P年龄较小,和分类和回归树分析中确定的风险组(S1P后的体外膜氧合和无体外膜氧合的更长的S2P体外循环时间)。
    S2P至1岁后的死亡率和移植转诊率仍然很高~7%。S2P后的许多已确定的风险因素与S1P周围的阶段间因素相似,而其他人可能是S2P之后的独特时期。
    UNASSIGNED: For infants with single ventricle heart disease, the time after stage 2 procedure (S2P) is believed to be a lower risk period compared with the interstage period; however, significant morbidity and mortality still occur.
    UNASSIGNED: This study aimed to identify risk factors for mortality or transplantation referral between S2P surgery and the first birthday.
    UNASSIGNED: Retrospective cohort analysis of infants in the National Pediatric Cardiology Quality Improvement Collaborative who underwent staged single ventricle palliation from 2016 to 2022 and survived to S2P. Multivariable logistic regression and classification and regression trees were performed to identify risk factors for mortality and transplantation referral after S2P.
    UNASSIGNED: Of the 1,455 patients in the cohort who survived to S2P, 5.2% died and 2.3% were referred for transplant. Overall event rates at 30 and 100 days after S2P were 2% and 5%, respectively. Independent risk factors for mortality and transplantation referral included the presence of a known genetic syndrome, shunt type at stage 1 procedure (S1P), tricuspid valve repair at S1P, longer time to extubation and reintubation after S1P, ≥ moderate tricuspid regurgitation prior to S2P, younger age at S2P, and the risk groups identified in the classification and regression tree analysis (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation after S1P and longer S2P cardiopulmonary bypass time without extracorporeal membrane oxygenation).
    UNASSIGNED: Mortality and transplantation referral rates after S2P to 1 year of age remain high ∼7%. Many of the identified risk factors after S2P are similar to those established for interstage factors around the S1P, whereas others may be unique to the period after S2P.
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