Outcome prediction

结果预测
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自然语言处理(NLP)是机器学习的一个子领域,可以促进治疗师与客户的互动评估,并向治疗师提供大规模客户结果的反馈。然而,有有限的研究将NLP模型应用于客户结果预测,这些研究(a)使用治疗师-客户互动的转录本作为客户症状改善的直接预测因子,(b)考虑到语境语言的复杂性,以及(c)在模型开发中使用经典训练和测试拆分的最佳实践。使用来自795名客户和56名治疗师的2,630次会议记录,我们开发了NLP模型,该模型基于上一次会话的会话记录(Spearman的rho=0.32,p<.001)直接预测给定会话的客户症状。我们的结果强调了NLP模型在结果监测系统中实施以提高护理质量的潜力。我们讨论了对未来研究和应用的影响。
    Natural language processing (NLP) is a subfield of machine learning that may facilitate the evaluation of therapist-client interactions and provide feedback to therapists on client outcomes on a large scale. However, there have been limited studies applying NLP models to client outcome prediction that have (a) used transcripts of therapist-client interactions as direct predictors of client symptom improvement, (b) accounted for contextual linguistic complexities, and (c) used best practices in classical training and test splits in model development. Using 2,630 session recordings from 795 clients and 56 therapists, we developed NLP models that directly predicted client symptoms of a given session based on session recordings of the previous session (Spearman\'s rho =0.32, p<.001). Our results highlight the potential for NLP models to be implemented in outcome monitoring systems to improve quality of care. We discuss implications for future research and applications.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们介绍一个创新的,简单,有效的无分割方法,用于从PET/CT图像中分析头颈部癌症(HNC)患者的生存。通过利用基于深度学习的特征提取技术和应用于氟脱氧葡萄糖正电子发射断层扫描(FDG-PET)图像的多角度最大强度投影(MA-MIP),我们提出的方法无需手动分割感兴趣区域(ROI),如原发性肿瘤和受累淋巴结.相反,一个国家的最先进的对象检测模型是利用CT图像进行自动裁剪的头颈部解剖区域,而不仅仅是PET体积上的病变或涉及的淋巴结。然后利用预训练的深度卷积神经网络骨干来从从裁剪的PET体积的72个多角度轴向旋转获得的MA-MIP提取深度特征。从PET体积的多个投影视图中提取的这些深层特征然后被聚合和融合,并用于对489例HNC患者进行无复发生存分析。对于无复发生存分析的任务,所提出的方法优于目标数据集上的最佳性能方法。通过避免在FDGPET-CT图像上手动描绘恶性肿瘤,我们的方法消除了对主观解释的依赖性,并大大提高了所提出的生存分析方法的可重复性.此工作的代码已公开发布。
    We introduce an innovative, simple, effective segmentation-free approach for survival analysis of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients from PET/CT images. By harnessing deep learning-based feature extraction techniques and multi-angle maximum intensity projections (MA-MIPs) applied to Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography (FDG-PET) images, our proposed method eliminates the need for manual segmentations of regions-of-interest (ROIs) such as primary tumors and involved lymph nodes. Instead, a state-of-the-art object detection model is trained utilizing the CT images to perform automatic cropping of the head and neck anatomical area, instead of only the lesions or involved lymph nodes on the PET volumes. A pre-trained deep convolutional neural network backbone is then utilized to extract deep features from MA-MIPs obtained from 72 multi-angel axial rotations of the cropped PET volumes. These deep features extracted from multiple projection views of the PET volumes are then aggregated and fused, and employed to perform recurrence-free survival analysis on a cohort of 489 HNC patients. The proposed approach outperforms the best performing method on the target dataset for the task of recurrence-free survival analysis. By circumventing the manual delineation of the malignancies on the FDG PET-CT images, our approach eliminates the dependency on subjective interpretations and highly enhances the reproducibility of the proposed survival analysis method. The code for this work is publicly released.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究旨在阐明定量SSTR-PET指标和临床病理生物标志物在接受肽受体放射性核素治疗(PRRT)的神经内分泌肿瘤(NETs)的无进展生存期(PFS)和总生存期(OS)中的作用。方法:回顾性分析91例NET患者(M47/F44;年龄66岁,范围34-90年),谁完成了四个周期的标准177Lu-DOTATATE进行。使用半自动工作流程从治疗前SSTR-PET图像中分割出SSTR-狂热肿瘤,并根据解剖区域标记肿瘤。针对PRRT反应分析了多种基于图像的特征,包括总的和器官特异性的肿瘤体积和SSTR密度以及临床病理生物标志物,包括Ki-67,嗜铬粒蛋白A(CgA)和碱性磷酸酶(ALP)。结果:中位OS为39.4个月(95%CI:33.1-NA个月),而中位PFS为23.9个月(95%CI:19.3-32.4个月).SSTR总肿瘤体积(HR=3.6;P=0.07)和骨肿瘤体积(HR=1.5;P=0.003)与较短的OS相关。此外,肿瘤总体积(HR=4.3;P=0.01),肝肿瘤体积(HR=1.8;P=0.05)和骨肿瘤体积(HR=1.4;P=0.01)与较短的PFS相关。此外,SSTR摄取低的大病灶体积与OS(HR=1.4;P=0.03)和PFS(HR=1.5;P=0.003)相关.在生物标志物中,基线CgA和ALP升高与OS(CgA:HR=4.9;P=0.003,ALP:HR=52.6;P=0.004)和PFS(CgA:HR=4.2;P=0.002,ALP:HR=9.4;P=0.06)均呈负相关.同样,既往系统治疗次数与较短的OS(HR=1.4;P=0.003)和PFS(HR=1.2;P=0.05)相关.此外,源自中肠原发部位的肿瘤显示出更长的PFS,与胰腺相比(HR=1.6;P=0.16),和那些分类为未知的原发性(HR=3.0;P=0.002)。结论:基于图像的特征,如SSTR-avid肿瘤体积,骨肿瘤受累,并且具有低SSTR表达的大肿瘤的存在证明了PFS的显着预测价值,提示NETs管理中潜在的临床效用。此外,CGA和ALP升高,随着先前系统治疗的数量增加,成为与PRRT结果较差相关的重要因素。
    Purpose: This study aims to elucidate the role of quantitative SSTR-PET metrics and clinicopathological biomarkers in the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) treated with peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT). Methods: A retrospective analysis including 91 NET patients (M47/F44; age 66 years, range 34-90 years) who completed four cycles of standard 177Lu-DOTATATE was conducted. SSTR-avid tumors were segmented from pretherapy SSTR-PET images using a semiautomatic workflow with the tumors labeled based on the anatomical regions. Multiple image-based features including total and organ-specific tumor volume and SSTR density along with clinicopathological biomarkers including Ki-67, chromogranin A (CgA) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) were analyzed with respect to the PRRT response. Results: The median OS was 39.4 months (95% CI: 33.1-NA months), while the median PFS was 23.9 months (95% CI: 19.3-32.4 months). Total SSTR-avid tumor volume (HR = 3.6; P = 0.07) and bone tumor volume (HR = 1.5; P = 0.003) were associated with shorter OS. Also, total tumor volume (HR = 4.3; P = 0.01), liver tumor volume (HR = 1.8; P = 0.05) and bone tumor volume (HR = 1.4; P = 0.01) were associated with shorter PFS. Furthermore, the presence of large lesion volume with low SSTR uptake was correlated with worse OS (HR = 1.4; P = 0.03) and PFS (HR = 1.5; P = 0.003). Among the biomarkers, elevated baseline CgA and ALP showed a negative association with both OS (CgA: HR = 4.9; P = 0.003, ALP: HR = 52.6; P = 0.004) and PFS (CgA: HR = 4.2; P = 0.002, ALP: HR = 9.4; P = 0.06). Similarly, number of prior systemic treatments was associated with shorter OS (HR = 1.4; P = 0.003) and PFS (HR = 1.2; P = 0.05). Additionally, tumors originating from the midgut primary site demonstrated longer PFS, compared to the pancreas (HR = 1.6; P = 0.16), and those categorized as unknown primary (HR = 3.0; P = 0.002). Conclusion: Image-based features such as SSTR-avid tumor volume, bone tumor involvement, and the presence of large tumors with low SSTR expression demonstrated significant predictive value for PFS, suggesting potential clinical utility in NETs management. Moreover, elevated CgA and ALP, along with an increased number of prior systemic treatments, emerged as significant factors associated with worse PRRT outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对于患有单心室心脏病的婴儿,与间期相比,第2阶段手术(S2P)后的时间被认为是较低的风险期;但是,显著的发病率和死亡率仍然存在。
    本研究旨在确定S2P手术与1岁生日之间死亡或移植转诊的危险因素。
    在2016年至2022年期间接受了阶段性单心室姑息治疗并存活至S2P的国家儿科心脏病学质量改进合作组织中的婴儿的回顾性队列分析。进行多变量逻辑回归和分类和回归树,以确定S2P后死亡率和移植转诊的危险因素。
    在该队列中存活到S2P的1,455名患者中,5.2%死亡,2.3%转诊接受移植。S2P后30天和100天的总体事件发生率分别为2%和5%,分别。死亡率和移植转诊的独立危险因素包括已知遗传综合征的存在,第1阶段程序(S1P)中的分流类型,S1P三尖瓣修复,S1P后拔管和再插管的时间更长,S2P前≥中度三尖瓣反流,在S2P年龄较小,和分类和回归树分析中确定的风险组(S1P后的体外膜氧合和无体外膜氧合的更长的S2P体外循环时间)。
    S2P至1岁后的死亡率和移植转诊率仍然很高~7%。S2P后的许多已确定的风险因素与S1P周围的阶段间因素相似,而其他人可能是S2P之后的独特时期。
    UNASSIGNED: For infants with single ventricle heart disease, the time after stage 2 procedure (S2P) is believed to be a lower risk period compared with the interstage period; however, significant morbidity and mortality still occur.
    UNASSIGNED: This study aimed to identify risk factors for mortality or transplantation referral between S2P surgery and the first birthday.
    UNASSIGNED: Retrospective cohort analysis of infants in the National Pediatric Cardiology Quality Improvement Collaborative who underwent staged single ventricle palliation from 2016 to 2022 and survived to S2P. Multivariable logistic regression and classification and regression trees were performed to identify risk factors for mortality and transplantation referral after S2P.
    UNASSIGNED: Of the 1,455 patients in the cohort who survived to S2P, 5.2% died and 2.3% were referred for transplant. Overall event rates at 30 and 100 days after S2P were 2% and 5%, respectively. Independent risk factors for mortality and transplantation referral included the presence of a known genetic syndrome, shunt type at stage 1 procedure (S1P), tricuspid valve repair at S1P, longer time to extubation and reintubation after S1P, ≥ moderate tricuspid regurgitation prior to S2P, younger age at S2P, and the risk groups identified in the classification and regression tree analysis (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation after S1P and longer S2P cardiopulmonary bypass time without extracorporeal membrane oxygenation).
    UNASSIGNED: Mortality and transplantation referral rates after S2P to 1 year of age remain high ∼7%. Many of the identified risk factors after S2P are similar to those established for interstage factors around the S1P, whereas others may be unique to the period after S2P.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    当前的大数据时代为临床医生提供了大量新的机会,让他们利用人工智能来优化患有先天性心脏病的儿科和成人患者的护理。目前,在临床诊断中,人工智能的使用严重不足,预后,和先天性心脏病患者的管理。该文件是一项行动呼吁,将描述先天性心脏病中人工智能的现状,审查挑战,讨论机会,并专注于基于人工智能的先心病部署的首要任务。
    The current era of big data offers a wealth of new opportunities for clinicians to leverage artificial intelligence to optimize care for pediatric and adult patients with a congenital heart disease. At present, there is a significant underutilization of artificial intelligence in the clinical setting for the diagnosis, prognosis, and management of congenital heart disease patients. This document is a call to action and will describe the current state of artificial intelligence in congenital heart disease, review challenges, discuss opportunities, and focus on the top priorities of artificial intelligence-based deployment in congenital heart disease.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    数字数据处理彻底改变了医疗文档,并实现了跨医院的患者数据汇总。诸如AO基金会关于骨折治疗的倡议(AOSammelstudie,1986),关于生存的主要创伤结局研究(MTOS),创伤审计和研究网络(TARN)开创了多医院数据收集的先河。大型创伤登记处,像德国创伤登记处(TR-DGU)有助于提高证据水平,但仍然受到预定义的数据集和有限的生理参数的限制.对病理生理反应的理解的提高证实了有关骨折护理的决策导致了患者量身定制的动态方法的发展,例如安全最终手术算法。在未来,人工智能(AI)可以通过潜在地改变裂缝识别和/或结果预测来提供进一步的步骤。向灵活决策和人工智能驱动创新的演变可能会有进一步的帮助。当前的手稿总结了从本地数据库和随后的创伤注册到基于AI的算法的大数据的发展,例如Parkland创伤死亡率指数和IBMWatsonPathwayExplorer。
    Digital data processing has revolutionized medical documentation and enabled the aggregation of patient data across hospitals. Initiatives such as those from the AO Foundation about fracture treatment (AO Sammelstudie, 1986), the Major Trauma Outcome Study (MTOS) about survival, and the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) pioneered multi-hospital data collection. Large trauma registries, like the German Trauma Registry (TR-DGU) helped improve evidence levels but were still constrained by predefined data sets and limited physiological parameters. The improvement in the understanding of pathophysiological reactions substantiated that decision making about fracture care led to development of patient\'s tailored dynamic approaches like the Safe Definitive Surgery algorithm. In the future, artificial intelligence (AI) may provide further steps by potentially transforming fracture recognition and/or outcome prediction. The evolution towards flexible decision making and AI-driven innovations may be of further help. The current manuscript summarizes the development of big data from local databases and subsequent trauma registries to AI-based algorithms, such as Parkland Trauma Mortality Index and the IBM Watson Pathway Explorer.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    小儿霍奇金和非霍奇金淋巴瘤在生物学和治疗上与成人病例不同,然而,缺乏针对小儿淋巴瘤的生存分析。我们分析了1975年至2018年的淋巴瘤数据,比较了7,871名儿童患者和226,211名成人患者的生存趋势。确定了儿童淋巴瘤生存的关键危险因素,开发了一个预测列线图,并利用机器学习来预测长期淋巴瘤特异性死亡风险。在1975年至2018年期间,我们观察到1年内大幅增长(19.3%),5年期(41.9%),儿科淋巴瘤患者的10年总生存率(48.8%)。预后因素,如年龄,性别,种族,安阿伯舞台,淋巴瘤亚型,和放疗被纳入列线图。列线图表现出出色的预测性能,一年的曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.766、0.724和0.703,五年,十年的生存,分别,在训练组中,验证队列中的AUC值为0.776、0.712和0.696。重要的是,列线图在生存预测方面优于AnnArbor分期系统。机器学习模型在预测淋巴瘤特异性死亡风险方面实现了约0.75的AUC值,超过了常规方法(AUC=〜0.70)。我们还观察到儿科淋巴瘤幸存者在10年后患淋巴瘤的风险大大降低。UT面临非淋巴瘤疾病的风险越来越大。该研究强调了小儿淋巴瘤生存率的实质性改善,提供可靠的预测工具,并强调了长期监测儿科患者非淋巴瘤健康问题的重要性.
    Pediatric Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphomas differ from adult cases in biology and management, yet there is a lack of survival analysis tailored to pediatric lymphoma. We analyzed lymphoma data from 1975 to 2018, comparing survival trends between 7,871 pediatric and 226,211 adult patients, identified key risk factors for pediatric lymphoma survival, developed a predictive nomogram, and utilized machine learning to predict long-term lymphoma-specific mortality risk. Between 1975 and 2018, we observed substantial increases in 1-year (19.3%), 5-year (41.9%), and 10-year (48.8%) overall survival rates in pediatric patients with lymphoma. Prognostic factors such as age, sex, race, Ann Arbor stage, lymphoma subtypes, and radiotherapy were incorporated into the nomogram. The nomogram exhibited excellent predictive performance with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.766, 0.724, and 0.703 for one-year, five-year, and ten-year survival, respectively, in the training cohort, and AUC values of 0.776, 0.712, and 0.696 in the validation cohort. Importantly, the nomogram outperformed the Ann Arbor staging system in survival prediction. Machine learning models achieved AUC values of approximately 0.75, surpassing the conventional method (AUC =  ~ 0.70) in predicting the risk of lymphoma-specific death. We also observed that pediatric lymphoma survivors had a substantially reduced risk of lymphoma after ten years b,ut faced an increasing risk of non-lymphoma diseases. The study highlights substantial improvements in pediatric lymphoma survival, offers reliable predictive tools, and underscores the importance of long-term monitoring for non-lymphoma health issues in pediatric patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    长期意识障碍(DOC)的结果预测仍然具有挑战性。这可能导致不适当的治疗退出或不必要的治疗延长。脑电图(EEG)是一种廉价的,便携式,和非侵入性的设备与复杂的信号分析的各种机会。计算脑电图测量,如脑电图连通性和网络指标,可能是DOC调查的理想人选,但是他们的预测能力仍未透露。我们进行了一项荟萃分析,旨在比较广泛使用的临床量表的预后能力,昏迷恢复量表-修订版-CRS-R和EEG连通性和网络指标。我们发现CRS-R量表的预后能力中等(AUC:0.67(0.60-0.75)),但脑电图连通性和网络指标预测结果具有显著(p=0.0071)更高的准确性(AUC:0.78(0.70-0.86))。我们还估计了脑电图谱功率的预后能力,与EEG连通性和图论测量(AUC:0.75(0.70-0.80))相比,没有显着(p=0.3943)。多变量自动结果预测工具似乎优于临床和脑电图标记。
    Outcome prediction in prolonged disorders of consciousness (DOC) remains challenging. This can result in either inappropriate withdrawal of treatment or unnecessary prolongation of treatment. Electroencephalography (EEG) is a cheap, portable, and non-invasive device with various opportunities for complex signal analysis. Computational EEG measures, such as EEG connectivity and network metrics, might be ideal candidates for the investigation of DOC, but their capacity in prognostication is still undisclosed. We conducted a meta-analysis aiming to compare the prognostic power of the widely used clinical scale, Coma Recovery Scale-Revised - CRS-R and EEG connectivity and network metrics. We found that the prognostic power of the CRS-R scale was moderate (AUC: 0.67 (0.60-0.75)), but EEG connectivity and network metrics predicted outcome with significantly (p = 0.0071) higher accuracy (AUC:0.78 (0.70-0.86)). We also estimated the prognostic capacity of EEG spectral power, which was not significantly (p = 0.3943) inferior to that of the EEG connectivity and graph-theory measures (AUC:0.75 (0.70-0.80)). Multivariate automated outcome prediction tools seemed to outperform clinical and EEG markers.
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  • 文章类型: Published Erratum
    [这更正了文章DOI:10.3389/fmed.2023.1217037。].
    [This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1217037.].
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:自2011年以来,颈椎前路椎间盘切除术和融合术(ACDF)的频率增加了400%,这突显了在术前预测术后不良结局的必要性。我们的研究旨在实现两个目标:首先,开发一套可解释的机器学习(ML)模型,能够预测ACDF手术后的不良术后结果,其次,将这些模型嵌入到用户友好的Web应用程序中,展示他们的潜在效用。
    方法:我们利用来自国家外科质量改进计划数据库的数据来确定接受ACDF手术的患者。感兴趣的结果是四个短期术后不良结果:延长住院时间(LOS),非家庭排放,再入院30天,和主要并发症。我们使用了五种ML算法——TabPFN,TabNET,XGBoost,LightGBM,和随机森林-再加上Optuna优化库,用于超参数调整。为了增强我们模型的可解释性,我们采用SHapley加法扩张(SHAP)来评估预测变量的相对重要性,并使用部分依赖图来说明各个变量对我们表现最好的模型所产生的预测的影响。我们使用接收器工作特性(ROC)曲线和精确召回曲线(PRC)可视化模型性能。计算的定量指标是ROC曲线下面积(AUROC),平衡精度,中华人民共和国下的加权面积(AUPRC),加权精度,加权召回。选择具有最高AUROC值的模型用于包括在web应用中。
    结果:分析包括57,760例LOS延长患者[11.1%的LOS延长患者],非家庭排放57,780[3.3%非家庭排放],57,790,30天再入院[2.9%再入院],和57,800的主要并发症[1.4%的主要并发症]。表现最好的模型,这些是用随机森林算法构建的,预测延长LOS的平均AUROC为0.776、0.846、0.775和0.747,非家庭排放,再入院,和并发症,分别。
    结论:我们的研究采用先进的ML方法来增强对ACDF术后不良结局的预测。我们设计了一个可访问的Web应用程序,将这些模型集成到临床实践中。我们的发现肯定了ML工具作为风险分层的重要补充,促进预测不同的结果,并加强对ACDF的患者咨询。
    BACKGROUND: The frequency of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) has increased up to 400% since 2011, underscoring the need to preoperatively anticipate adverse postoperative outcomes given the procedure\'s expanding use. Our study aims to accomplish two goals: firstly, to develop a suite of explainable machine learning (ML) models capable of predicting adverse postoperative outcomes following ACDF surgery, and secondly, to embed these models in a user-friendly web application, demonstrating their potential utility.
    METHODS: We utilized data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database to identify patients who underwent ACDF surgery. The outcomes of interest were four short-term postoperative adverse outcomes: prolonged length of stay (LOS), non-home discharges, 30-day readmissions, and major complications. We utilized five ML algorithms - TabPFN, TabNET, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest - coupled with the Optuna optimization library for hyperparameter tuning. To bolster the interpretability of our models, we employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for evaluating predictor variables\' relative importance and used partial dependence plots to illustrate the impact of individual variables on the predictions generated by our top-performing models. We visualized model performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and precision-recall curves (PRC). Quantitative metrics calculated were the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), balanced accuracy, weighted area under the PRC (AUPRC), weighted precision, and weighted recall. Models with the highest AUROC values were selected for inclusion in a web application.
    RESULTS: The analysis included 57,760 patients for prolonged LOS [11.1% with prolonged LOS], 57,780 for non-home discharges [3.3% non-home discharges], 57,790 for 30-day readmissions [2.9% readmitted], and 57,800 for major complications [1.4% with major complications]. The top-performing models, which were the ones built with the Random Forest algorithm, yielded mean AUROCs of 0.776, 0.846, 0.775, and 0.747 for predicting prolonged LOS, non-home discharges, readmissions, and complications, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our study employs advanced ML methodologies to enhance the prediction of adverse postoperative outcomes following ACDF. We designed an accessible web application to integrate these models into clinical practice. Our findings affirm that ML tools serve as vital supplements in risk stratification, facilitating the prediction of diverse outcomes and enhancing patient counseling for ACDF.
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