causal inference

因果推理
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    生活中的成功与执行功能有关,支持目标导向行为的认知过程的集合。执行功能是与认知控制相关的总称,自我控制,还有更多.执行功能的变化预测了学校教育的并发成功,关系,和行为,以及几年后重要的生活结果。这些发现可能表明,某些人注定要拥有良好的执行功能和成功。然而,环境对执行功能和发展的影响早已得到认可。这一传统的最新研究表明,社会背景影响儿童参与执行功能的力量。这些发现提出了新的解释,为什么个人在执行功能和相关的生活结果方面存在差异,包括跨文化和社会经济地位。这些发现提出了关于如何最好地概念化的基本问题,measure,并支持不同背景下的执行功能。解决现实世界动态和计算机制的未来研究将阐明执行功能如何在世界上出现。
    Success in life is linked to executive functions, a collection of cognitive processes that support goal-directed behaviors. Executive functions is an umbrella term related to cognitive control, self-control, and more. Variations in executive functioning predict concurrent success in schooling, relationships, and behavior, as well as important life outcomes years later. Such findings may suggest that certain individuals are destined for good executive functioning and success. However, environmental influences on executive function and development have long been recognized. Recent research in this tradition demonstrates the power of social contextual influences on children\'s engagement of executive functions. Such findings suggest new interpretations of why individuals differ in executive functioning and associated life outcomes, including across cultures and socioeconomic statuses. These findings raise fundamental questions about how best to conceptualize, measure, and support executive functioning across diverse contexts. Future research addressing real-world dynamics and computational mechanisms will elucidate how executive functioning emerges in the world.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    钩端螺旋体病是由钩端螺旋体属细菌引起的全球性人畜共患疾病。这种疾病在热带和发展中国家的发病率很高,在哥伦比亚,环境,经济,社会,文化条件有利于疾病传播,直接影响死亡率和发病率。我们的目标是确定径流对哥伦比亚钩端螺旋体病病例的汇总滞后影响。对于我们的研究,我们纳入了钩端螺旋体病病例最多的前20个哥伦比亚城市.每月钩端螺旋体病病例,通过实验室测试确认,从2007年到2022年,是从国家公共卫生监测系统获得的。此外,我们从遥感器收集了每月的径流以及大气和海洋数据。每个城市的多维贫困指数值来自Terridata存储库。我们采用因果推断和分布滞后非线性模型来估计径流对钩端螺旋体病病例的滞后效应。通过荟萃分析将特定城市的估算值合并起来,以得出所有研究城市的单个估算值。20个城市的汇总结果表明,当径流<120g/m2时,径流对钩端螺旋体病的0至2和0-3个月的影响滞后。对于更长的滞后期(0-1、0至4、0至5和0-6个月)或更高的径流值,未发现影响。将多维贫困指数纳入径流的荟萃分析有助于建立0-3和0-4个月滞后期的模型。
    Leptospirosis is a global zoonotic disease caused by spirochete bacteria of the genus Leptospira. The disease exhibits a notable incidence in tropical and developing countries, and in Colombia, environmental, economic, social, and cultural conditions favor disease transmission, directly impacting both mortality and morbidity rates. Our objective was to establish the pooled lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases in Colombia. For our study, we included the top 20 Colombian municipalities with the highest number of leptospirosis cases. Monthly cases of leptospirosis, confirmed by laboratory tests and spanning from 2007 to 2022, were obtained from the National Public Health Surveillance System. Additionally, we collected monthly runoff and atmospheric and oceanic data from remote sensors. Multidimensional poverty index values for each municipality were sourced from the Terridata repository. We employed causal inference and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases. Municipality-specific estimates were combined through meta-analysis to derive a single estimate for all municipalities under study. The pooled results for the 20 municipalities suggest a lagged effect for the 0 to 2, and 0-3 months of runoff on leptospirosis when the runoff is < 120 g/m2. No effect was identified for longer lagged periods (0-1, 0 to 4, 0 to 5, and 0-6 months) or higher runoff values. Incorporation of the multidimensional poverty index into the meta-analysis of runoff contributed to the models for the lagged periods of 0-3, and 0-4 months.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    IgA肾病(IgAN),一种全球普遍的肾小球肾炎,表现出复杂的发病机制。组织蛋白酶,溶酶体内的半胱氨酸蛋白酶,涉及各种生理和病理过程,包括肾脏疾病。先前的观察性研究表明,组织蛋白酶和IgAN之间存在潜在的联系,然而确切的因果关系尚不清楚.
    我们使用公开可用的遗传数据进行了全面的双向和多变量孟德尔随机化(MR)研究,以系统地探索组织蛋白酶和IgAN之间的因果关系。此外,采用免疫组织化学(IHC)染色和酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)评估IgAN患者肾组织和血清中组织蛋白酶的表达水平。我们通过基因集变异分析(GSVA)研究了潜在的机制,基因集富集分析(GSEA),和免疫细胞浸润分析。还进行了分子对接和虚拟筛选以通过药物重新定位来鉴定潜在的候选药物。
    单变量MR分析显示组织蛋白酶S(CTSS)水平升高与IgAN风险升高之间存在显著关联。这通过使用逆方差加权(IVW)方法估计的1.041(95%CI=1.009-1.073,P=0.012)的比值比(OR)得到证明。在多变量MR分析中,即使在调整了其他组织蛋白酶之后,CTSS水平升高继续显示与IgAN风险增加密切相关(IVWP=0.020,OR=1.037,95%CI=1.006~1.069).然而,反向MR分析未确定IgAN与各种组织蛋白酶之间的因果关系.IHC和ELISA结果显示,与对照组相比,IgAN患者的肾组织和血清中CTSS显著过表达,与其他一些原发性肾脏疾病如膜性肾病相比,这种高表达是IgAN特有的,微小病变和局灶节段肾小球硬化。免疫细胞浸润的调查,GSEA,和GSVA强调了CTSS表达在IgAN中观察到的免疫失调中的作用。分子对接和虚拟筛选精确定位甲磺酸Camostat,c-Kit-IN-1和Mocetinostat是靶向CTSS的首选药物。
    CTSS水平升高与IgAN风险增加相关,该酶在IgAN患者血清和肾组织中明显过表达。CTSS可能作为诊断生物标志物,为诊断和治疗IgAN提供了新的途径。
    UNASSIGNED: IgA nephropathy (IgAN), a prevalent form of glomerulonephritis globally, exhibits complex pathogenesis. Cathepsins, cysteine proteases within lysosomes, are implicated in various physiological and pathological processes, including renal conditions. Prior observational studies have suggested a potential link between cathepsins and IgAN, yet the precise causal relationship remains unclear.
    UNASSIGNED: We conducted a comprehensive bidirectional and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) study using publicly available genetic data to explore the causal association between cathepsins and IgAN systematically. Additionally, immunohistochemical (IHC) staining and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were employed to evaluate cathepsin expression levels in renal tissues and serum of IgAN patients. We investigated the underlying mechanisms via gene set variation analysis (GSVA), gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA), and immune cell infiltration analysis. Molecular docking and virtual screening were also performed to identify potential drug candidates through drug repositioning.
    UNASSIGNED: Univariate MR analyses demonstrated a significant link between increased cathepsin S (CTSS) levels and a heightened risk of IgAN. This was evidenced by an odds ratio (OR) of 1.041 (95% CI=1.009-1.073, P=0.012) as estimated using the inverse variance weighting (IVW) method. In multivariable MR analysis, even after adjusting for other cathepsins, elevated CTSS levels continued to show a strong correlation with an increased risk of IgAN (IVW P=0.020, OR=1.037, 95% CI=1.006-1.069). However, reverse MR analyses did not establish a causal relationship between IgAN and various cathepsins. IHC and ELISA findings revealed significant overexpression of CTSS in both renal tissues and serum of IgAN patients compared to controls, and this high expression was unique to IgAN compared with several other primary kidney diseases such as membranous nephropathy, minimal change disease and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. Investigations into immune cell infiltration, GSEA, and GSVA highlighted the role of CTSS expression in the immune dysregulation observed in IgAN. Molecular docking and virtual screening pinpointed Camostat mesylate, c-Kit-IN-1, and Mocetinostat as the top drug candidates for targeting CTSS.
    UNASSIGNED: Elevated CTSS levels are associated with an increased risk of IgAN, and this enzyme is notably overexpressed in IgAN patients\' serum and renal tissues. CTSS could potentially act as a diagnostic biomarker, providing new avenues for diagnosing and treating IgAN.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们引入了一个简单的诊断测试,用于评估线性因果模型的整体或部分拟合优度,其中误差与协变量无关。特别是,我们考虑潜在存在隐藏的混杂因素的情况。我们开发了一种方法,并讨论了其区分与潜在变量的响应混淆的协变量与不混淆的协变量的能力。因此,我们提供了部分拟合优度的测试和方法。该测试基于将新颖的高阶最小二乘原理与普通最小二乘进行比较。尽管它很简单,所提出的方法是非常一般的,也被证明是有效的高维设置。本文的补充材料可在线获得。
    We introduce a simple diagnostic test for assessing the overall or partial goodness of fit of a linear causal model with errors being independent of the covariates. In particular, we consider situations where hidden confounding is potentially present. We develop a method and discuss its capability to distinguish between covariates that are confounded with the response by latent variables and those that are not. Thus, we provide a test and methodology for partial goodness of fit. The test is based on comparing a novel higher-order least squares principle with ordinary least squares. In spite of its simplicity, the proposed method is extremely general and is also proven to be valid for high-dimensional settings. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    三阴性乳腺癌(TNBC)患者的辅助化疗存在潜在的不确定性和过度治疗。
    本研究旨在探讨深度学习(DL)模型在个性化化疗选择中的表现,并量化基线特征对治疗疗效的影响。
    将接受模型推荐治疗的患者与未接受治疗的患者进行比较。根据模型推荐的治疗总生存期是主要结果。为了减轻偏见,采用逆概率治疗加权(IPTW)。采用混合效应多元线性回归来可视化患者某些基线特征对化疗选择的影响。
    共有10070名女性TNBC患者符合纳入标准。根据生存数据模型推荐的自我正常化平衡(SNB)个体治疗效果进行治疗与生存获益相关(IPTW调整后的风险比:0.53,95%CI,0.32-8.60;IPTW调整后的风险差异:12.90,95%CI,6.99-19.01;IPTW调整后的受限平均生存时间差异:5.54,95%CI,1.36-8.61),这超过了其他模型和国家综合癌症网络指南。对于不推荐接受这种治疗的患者,没有观察到化疗的生存益处。SNB预测具有较大肿瘤和更多阳性淋巴结的老年患者是化疗的最佳候选者。
    这些研究结果表明,SNB模型可以识别TNBC患者,他们可以从化疗中获益。这种新颖的分析方法可以提供偏见的个体生存信息和治疗建议。需要进一步的研究以在具有更多特征和结果测量的临床环境中验证这些模型。
    UNASSIGNED: Potential uncertainties and overtreatment exist in adjuvant chemotherapy for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients.
    UNASSIGNED: This study aims to explore the performance of deep learning (DL) models in personalized chemotherapy selection and quantify the impact of baseline characteristics on treatment efficacy.
    UNASSIGNED: Patients who received treatment recommended by models were compared to those who did not. Overall survival for treatment according to model recommendations was the primary outcome. To mitigate bias, inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was employed. A mixed-effect multivariate linear regression was employed to visualize the influence of certain baseline features of patients on chemotherapy selection.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 10,070 female TNBC patients met the inclusion criteria. Treatment according to Self-Normalizing Balanced (SNB) individual treatment effect for survival data model recommendations was associated with a survival benefit (IPTW-adjusted hazard ratio: 0.53, 95% CI, 0.32-8.60; IPTW-adjusted risk difference: 12.90, 95% CI, 6.99-19.01; IPTW-adjusted the difference in restricted mean survival time: 5.54, 95% CI, 1.36-8.61), which surpassed other models and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines. No survival benefit for chemotherapy was seen for patients not recommended to receive this treatment. SNB predicted older patients with larger tumors and more positive lymph nodes are the optimal candidates for chemotherapy.
    UNASSIGNED: These findings suggest that the SNB model may identify patients with TNBC who could benefit from chemotherapy. This novel analytical approach may provide debiased individual survival information and treatment recommendations. Further research is required to validate these models in clinical settings with more features and outcome measurements.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    暂无摘要。
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在医疗机构中感知到的歧视会对少数群体的心理健康产生不利影响。然而,感知到的歧视和心理健康之间的关联容易产生无法衡量的混淆。该研究旨在定量评估未测量的混杂因素在这种关联中的影响,使用g估计。
    方法:在一个以非洲裔美国人为主的群体中,我们应用g估计来估计感知歧视和心理健康之间的关系,对测量的混杂因素进行调整和未调整。心理健康是通过焦虑的临床诊断来衡量的,抑郁症和双相情感障碍。感知到的歧视被测量为医疗保健机构中患者报告的歧视事件的数量。测量的混杂因素包括人口统计,社会经济,居住和健康特征。根据g估计,混杂的影响表示为α1。我们比较了测量和未测量混杂的α1。
    结果:观察到卫生保健机构中感知的歧视与心理健康结果之间存在很强的关联。对于焦虑,未对测量的混杂因素进行调整和调整的比值比(95%置信区间)为1.30(1.21,1.39)和1.26(1.17,1.36),分别。测量的混杂的α1为-0.066。未测量的混杂与α1=0.200,这是测量混杂的三倍以上,对应于1.12(1.01,1.24)的赔率比。其他心理健康结果也观察到了类似的结果。
    结论:与测量的混杂因素相比,未测量的三倍测量混杂不足以解释感知歧视和心理健康之间的关联,表明这种关联对未测量的混杂是稳健的。这项研究提供了一个新的框架来定量评估未测量的混杂。
    BACKGROUND: Perceived discrimination in health care settings can have adverse consequences on mental health in minority groups. However, the association between perceived discrimination and mental health is prone to unmeasured confounding. The study aims to quantitatively evaluate the influence of unmeasured confounding in this association, using g-estimation.
    METHODS: In a predominantly African American cohort, we applied g-estimation to estimate the association between perceived discrimination and mental health, adjusted and unadjusted for measured confounders. Mental health was measured using clinical diagnoses of anxiety, depression and bipolar disorder. Perceived discrimination was measured as the number of patient-reported discrimination events in health care settings. Measured confounders included demographic, socioeconomic, residential and health characteristics. The influence of confounding was denoted as α1 from g-estimation. We compared α1 for measured and unmeasured confounding.
    RESULTS: Strong associations between perceived discrimination in health care settings and mental health outcomes were observed. For anxiety, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) unadjusted and adjusted for measured confounders were 1.30 (1.21, 1.39) and 1.26 (1.17, 1.36), respectively. The α1 for measured confounding was -0.066. Unmeasured confounding with α1=0.200, which was over three times that of measured confounding, corresponds to an odds ratio of 1.12 (1.01, 1.24). Similar results were observed for other mental health outcomes.
    CONCLUSIONS: Compared with measured confounding, unmeasured that was three times measured confounding was not enough to explain away the association between perceived discrimination and mental health, suggesting that this association is robust to unmeasured confounding. This study provides a novel framework to quantitatively evaluate unmeasured confounding.
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  • 文章类型: Published Erratum
    [这更正了文章DOI:10.3389/fgene.2024.1371607。].
    [This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fgene.2024.1371607.].
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    最近的工作已经提出了回归模型,这些模型在数据收集环境中是不变的[24,20,11,16,8]。这些估计器通常在环境和强加的不变性类型的条件下具有因果解释。最近的一个例子,原因Dantzig(CD),在隐藏的混杂条件下是一致的,并且代表了经典工具变量估计器的替代方法,例如两阶段最小二乘(TSLS)。在这项工作中,我们将CD导出为广义矩量法(GMM)估计器。GMM表示导致了几个实际结果,包括1)创建广义因果Dantzig(GCD)估计器,该估计器可应用于CD无法拟合的连续环境的问题2)混合(GCD-TSLS组合)估计器,其特性优于GCD或TSLS单独3)使用GMM理论的所有方法的简单渐近结果。我们比较CD,GCD,TSLS,和混合估计器在模拟中的应用,以及在流式细胞术数据集的应用。新提出的GCD和混合估计器在许多情况下具有优于现有方法的性能。
    Recent works have proposed regression models which are invariant across data collection environments [24, 20, 11, 16, 8]. These estimators often have a causal interpretation under conditions on the environments and type of invariance imposed. One recent example, the Causal Dantzig (CD), is consistent under hidden confounding and represents an alternative to classical instrumental variable estimators such as Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS). In this work we derive the CD as a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. The GMM representation leads to several practical results, including 1) creation of the Generalized Causal Dantzig (GCD) estimator which can be applied to problems with continuous environments where the CD cannot be fit 2) a Hybrid (GCD-TSLS combination) estimator which has properties superior to GCD or TSLS alone 3) straightforward asymptotic results for all methods using GMM theory. We compare the CD, GCD, TSLS, and Hybrid estimators in simulations and an application to a Flow Cytometry data set. The newly proposed GCD and Hybrid estimators have superior performance to existing methods in many settings.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    免疫系统在甲状腺癌(THCA)的发展和治疗中起着重要作用。然而,免疫细胞与THCA的相关性尚未得到系统研究。
    这项研究使用了两个样本的孟德尔随机化(MR)研究,以确定免疫细胞特征与THCA之间的因果关系。基于大量公开的遗传数据样本,我们探讨了731种免疫细胞特征与THCA风险之间的因果关系.将731种免疫表型分为7组,包括B细胞面板(n=190),cDC面板(n=64),T细胞组的成熟期(n=79),单核细胞面板(n=43),髓系细胞组(n=64),TBNK面板(n=124),和Treg面板(n=167)。对结果的敏感性进行了分析,并排除异质性和水平多效性。
    FDR校正后,免疫表型对THCA的影响无统计学意义。值得一提的是,然而,有一些未经调整的低P值表型。单核细胞CD62L对THCA风险的比值比(OR)为0.953(95%CI=0.930~0.976,P=1.005×10-4),ThCA风险的Treg%CD4的静息估计为0.975(95%CI=0.961-0.989,P=7.984×10-4)。此外,THCA与以下5种免疫表型的风险降低相关:CD39上的CD25+Treg上的CD4(OR=0.871,95%CI=0.812~0.935,P=1.274×10-4),活化的TregAC(OR=0.884,95%CI=0.820~0.953,P=0.001),激活和静息Treg%CD4Treg(OR=0.872,95CI=0.811〜0.937,P=2.109×10-4),CD28-CD25+CD8brAC(OR=0.867,95%CI=0.809~0.930,P=6.09×10-5),CD28-CD127-CD25++CD8brAC(OR=0.875,95CI=0.814~0.942,P=3.619×10-4)。THCA与IgD+CD24+分泌Treg%CD4Treg(OR=1.143,95%CI=1.064~1.229,P=2.779×10-4)和CD19的风险增加相关(OR=1.118,95%CI=1.041~1.120,P=0.002)。
    这些发现表明了免疫细胞与THCA之间通过遗传手段的因果关系。我们的研究结果可能为未来的临床研究提供指导。
    UNASSIGNED: The immune system plays an important role in the development and treatment of thyroid cancer(THCA).However, the correlation between immune cells and THCA has not been systematically studied.
    UNASSIGNED: This study used a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study to determine the causal relationship between immune cell characteristics and THCA. Based on a large sample of publicly available genetic data, we explored the causal relationship between 731 immune cell characteristics and THCA risk. The 731 immunophenotypes were divided into 7 groups, including B cell panel(n=190),cDC panel(n=64),Maturation stages of T cell panel(n=79),Monocyte panel(n=43),Myeloid cell panel(n=64),TBNK panel(n=124),and Treg panel(n=167). The sensitivity of the results was analyzed, and heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy were excluded.
    UNASSIGNED: After FDR correction, the effect of immunophenotype on THCA was not statistically significant. It is worth mentioning, however, that there are some unadjusted low P-values phenotypes. The odds ratio (OR) of CD62L on monocyte on THCA risk was estimated to be 0.953 (95% CI=0.930~0.976, P=1.005×10-4),and which was estimated to be 0.975(95% CI=0.961-0.989, P=7.984×10-4) for Resting Treg%CD4 on THCA risk. Furthermore, THCA was associated with a reduced risk of 5 immunophenotype:CD25 on CD39+ CD4 on Treg (OR=0.871, 95% CI=0.812~0.935, P=1.274×10-4), activated Treg AC (OR=0.884, 95% CI=0.820~0.953, P=0.001), activated & resting Treg % CD4 Treg (OR=0.872, 95%CI=0.811~0.937,P=2.109×10-4),CD28- CD25++ CD8br AC(OR=0.867,95% CI=0.809~0.930,P=6.09×10-5),CD28-CD127-CD25++CD8brAC(OR=0.875,95%CI=0.814~0.942,P=3.619×10-4).THCA was associated with an increased risk of Secreting Treg % CD4 Treg (OR=1.143, 95% CI=1.064~1.229, P=2.779×10-4) and CD19 on IgD+ CD24+ (OR=1.118, 95% CI=1.041~1.120, P=0.002).
    UNASSIGNED: These findings suggest the causal associations between immune cells and THCA by genetic means. Our results may have the potential to provide guidance for future clinical research.
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