炎症性肠病(IBD)影响全世界所有年龄段的人。尽管在大多数西方国家,该病的发病率正在稳定或下降,由于预期寿命和更好的疾病管理,其患病率仍在增加。这项工作旨在确定全国范围内与IBD发病率相关的趋势,分析区域,性别,和年龄分布。
数据由卫生部葡萄牙共享服务提供。这项研究包括对初级医疗机构中编码为“慢性肠炎/溃疡性结肠炎”(D94)的所有首次咨询的回顾性分析,从2017年到2020年,在葡萄牙。主要结果指标是每100,000居民的IBD发病率。我们还计算了每人每年的发病率,并预测了到2024年的发病率。在2017年至2019年期间,葡萄牙的IBD发病率从每10万居民54.9降至48.6。平均发病率为每1000人年20例新的IBD病例。有人预测,2023年12月,IBD发病率将达到305.4例新病例(95%预测间隔156.6-454.3),结果与2021年12月的预测值相似(305.4,95%预测区间197.3-413.6)。
2017年至2019年IBD发病率略有下降,未来有望趋于稳定。所提供的数据对于南欧国家IBD的表征以及在西方世界复合流行背景下制定未来的卫生政策至关重要。
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) affects people from all age categories worldwide. Although the incidence of the disease is stabilizing or decreasing in most Western world countries, its prevalence is still increasing because of the rise in life expectancy and better disease management. This work intends to identify the trends related to IBD incidence nationwide, analyzing regional, sex, and age distributions.
Data were provided by the Portuguese Shared Services of the Ministry of Health. This study consisted of a retrospective analysis of all first consultations coded for \"Chronic enteritis/ulcerative colitis\" (D94) in a primary healthcare setting, between 2017 and 2020, in Portugal. The primary outcome measure was the IBD incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants. We also calculated the incidence rate per person-year and forecasted incidence until 2024.
Between 2017 and 2019, the incidence rate of IBD in Portugal decreased from 54.9 to 48.6 per 100,000 inhabitants. The average incidence was 20 new cases of IBD per 1,000 person-year. It was predicted that, in December 2023, IBD incidence would reach 305.4 new cases (95% Prediction Interval 156.6-454.3), a similar result to the values forecasted for December 2021 (305.4, 95% Prediction Interval 197.3-413.6).
The incidence of IBD slightly declined from 2017 to 2019, and it is posed to stabilize in the future. The presented data are of the utmost importance for the characterization of IBD in Southern European countries and the establishment of future health policies in the setting of compounding prevalence in the Western world.