intervention

干预
  • 文章类型: Editorial
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:长期悲伤障碍(PGD),一种以严重为特征的疾病,持久性,和致残的悲伤,新包含在ICD-11和DSM-5-TR中。心理治疗是PGD最推荐的治疗方法之一,但哪些应该被认为是一线治疗需要澄清。本系统综述和网络荟萃分析的目的是综合现有证据,以比较成人PGD不同心理治疗的五种结果,并确定最佳心理治疗方式,以告知PGD治疗的临床决策。
    方法:从开始到3月20日,在7个数据库中进行了全面搜索,2023年。在频率论框架中,使用随机效应模型对结局进行配对和网络meta分析,置信区间为95%.
    结果:共发现2962条记录和55项研究(1,0330名参与者),评估了11种不同的心理干预措施。与等待名单相比,行为治疗(SMD=-1.05;95CI=-1.71,-0.38),第三波认知行为治疗(SMD=-1.00;95CI=-1.41,-0.58),家庭治疗(SMD=-0.87;95CI=-1.59,-0.16),心理动力疗法(SMD=-0.88;95CI=-1.67,-0.10)和认知疗法(SMD=-0.84;95CI=-1.57,-0.12)在减轻悲伤症状方面具有统计学效果.只有认知行为疗法(OR=0.48;95CI=0.27,0.85)比等待列表更可接受。就次要结果而言,第三波CBT可以显著降低抑郁症(SMD=-0.60;95CI=-0.84,-0.36),PTSD(SMD=-0.99;95CI=-1.62,-0.36)和焦虑(SMD=-1.44;95CI=-2.63,-0.25)。
    结论:大多数心理干预措施是有效的,但只有认知行为疗法具有最高的可接受性。具有较高有效率的第三波CBT可能更有利于减少次要结果。为了提供更有力的证据,今后应开展高质量的试验.
    BACKGROUND: Prolonged grief disorder (PGD), a condition characterized by severe, persistent, and disabling grief, is newly included in ICD-11 and DSM-5-TR. Psychotherapies are among the most recommended treatments for PGD, but which should be considered as first-line treatment needs to be clarified. The purpose of this systematic review and network meta-analysis was to synthesize the available evidence to compare five outcomes of different psychotherapies on PGD in adults and identify the optimal psychotherapy modality to inform clinical decision-making for the treatment of PGD.
    METHODS: A comprehensive search was conducted in 7 databases from inception until March 20th, 2023. In the frequentist framework, pairwise and network meta-analyses using random-effects models were performed for outcomes with 95 % confidence interval (CI).
    RESULTS: There were 2962 records found and 55 studies (1,0330 participants) assessing 11 different psychological interventions were included. Compared with the waiting list, behavioral therapy (SMD=-1.05; 95 %CI=-1.71, -0.38), third-wave cognitive behavior therapy (SMD=-1.00; 95 %CI =-1.41, -0.58), family therapy (SMD=-0.87; 95 %CI=-1.59, -0.16), psychodynamic therapy (SMD=-0.88; 95 %CI=-1.67, -0.10) and cognitive therapy (SMD=-0.84; 95 %CI=-1.57, -0.12) were statistically effective in reducing grief symptom. Only cognitive behavior therapy (OR =0.48; 95 %CI = 0.27, 0.85) was more acceptable than waiting list. In terms of secondary outcome, third-wave CBT can statistically significantly reduce depression (SMD= -0.60; 95 %CI =- 0.84, -0.36), PTSD (SMD=-0.99; 95 %CI =- 1.62, -0.36) and anxiety (SMD= -1.44; 95 %CI =-2.63, -0.25) respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: Most psychological interventions are effective, but only cognitive behavior therapy has the highest acceptability. Third-wave CBT with higher efficacy rates may be more beneficial for reducing secondary outcomes. To provide more robust evidence, high-quality trials should be conducted in the future.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:中国的快速城市化与心理健康挑战的增加有关,特别是农村到城市的流动儿童。本研究通过一项旨在改善中国流动儿童心理健康状况的随机对照试验,评估了正念和生活技能(LS)训练对情绪调节和焦虑症状的影响。
    方法:将两种干预措施-正念训练(MT)和MT加LS指导(MTLS)-与等待名单对照组的368名9-17岁流动儿童进行比较。志愿者接受了培训,每周向285名移民儿童提供干预措施,每组15人,为期8周。社会融合各不相同:公立学校的流动儿童与当地儿童混在一起被认为是高度融合的,公立学校仅限移民教室的学生有中等程度的融合,私立移民学校的儿童融入率较低。干预前评估情绪调节和焦虑症状,干预后,干预后三个月。
    结果:干预后与对照组相比,MT组社会融合程度较高的儿童表现出认知重估能力增强(p<.05),但身体焦虑较高(p<.01).在MT+LS臂中具有高度社会融合的儿童具有较低的避免伤害的焦虑症状(p<.01)和身体焦虑(p<.05)。MT+LS组社会融合程度低的儿童表现出较低的认知重估(p<.01)和较差的整体情绪调节能力(p<.01)。三个月后,MT+LS组中度整合儿童的分离焦虑(p<.05)和伤害回避焦虑(p<.05)较低.干预后三个月,其他组均未显示情绪调节显着改善或焦虑症状减轻。
    结论:正念和LS训练可能使社会融合水平较高的中国流动儿童受益,但社会融合水平较低的流动儿童会增加焦虑。未来的研究应该考虑实施治疗的社会文化背景。
    OBJECTIVE: China\'s rapid urbanization has been associated with increased mental health challenges, especially in rural-to-urban migrant children. This study evaluates the effects of mindfulness and life-skills (LS) training on emotional regulation and anxiety symptoms from a randomized controlled trial aimed at improving the mental health of Chinese migrant children.
    METHODS: Two intervention arms-mindfulness training (MT) and MT plus LS mentorship (MT + LS)-were compared to a waitlist control group of 368 migrant children aged 9-17 years. Volunteers were trained to deliver interventions to 285 migrant children in small groups of 15 for eight weeks weekly. Social integration varied: migrant children mixed with local children at public schools were considered highly integrated, those in migrant-only classrooms at public schools had intermediate levels of integration, and children in private migrant schools had low integration. Emotion regulation and anxiety symptoms were assessed preintervention, postintervention, and three months postintervention.
    RESULTS: Postintervention and compared to the control group, children with high social integration in the MT arm showed increased cognitive reappraisal ability (p < .05) but higher physical anxiety (p < .01). Children with high social integration in the MT + LS arm had lower anxiety symptoms of harm avoidance (p < .01) and physical anxiety (p < .05). Children with low social integration in the MT + LS arm showed lower cognitive reappraisal (p < .01) and poorer overall emotion regulation abilities (p < .01). Three months later, children with intermediate integration in the MT + LS arm had lower separation anxiety (p < .05) and harm avoidance anxiety (p < .05). No other groups showed significant improvements in emotion regulation or reducing in anxiety symptoms three months postintervention.
    CONCLUSIONS: Mindfulness and LS training may benefit Chinese migrant children who have higher levels of social integration but increase anxiety in those with lower social integration. Future research should consider the sociocultural context in which a treatment is implemented.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究旨在寻找可用于控制2型糖尿病老年患者血糖和改善身体功能的最佳干预措施。
    方法:进行了系统综述和网络荟萃分析(NMA),以评估和排名不同干预措施对糖化血红蛋白(HbAc1)的比较疗效,空腹血糖(FBG),肌肉质量,握力,步态速度,下半身肌肉力量,动态平衡。总共搜索了8个数据库,寻找符合资格的随机对照试验(RCT),即年龄超过60岁或平均年龄≥55岁的老年人,RCT干预的最短持续时间为6周,以及缺乏血糖水平数据和至少一项体能指标的患者被排除.使用Cochrane偏倚风险工具评估纳入的每项研究的偏倚。贝叶斯NMA作为主要结果,贝叶斯元回归和频繁NMA作为敏感性分析。
    结果:检索到2266篇文献,纳入27项随机对照试验,共2289名老年人。卫生工作者提供的健康管理在实现血糖控制方面发挥了优于其他干预措施的有益效果。但物理性能改善不明显。运动结合认知训练显示肌肉力量的改善更为明显,步态速度,和动态平衡,但在降低HbAc1和FBG方面排名落后。
    结论:个性化健康管理结合身体和认知训练可能是实现血糖控制和改善身体表现的最佳干预措施。需要进一步的RCT来验证和评估我们从这个NMA中得出的结果的可信度。
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to find the optimal intervention available to both control blood glucose and improve physical function in the geriatric population with T2DM.
    METHODS: A systemic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) was conducted to assess and rank the comparative efficacy of different interventions on glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbAc1), fasting blood glucose (FBG), muscle mass, grip strength, gait speed, lower body muscle strength, and dynamic balance. A total of eight databases were searched for eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that the elderly aged more than 60 years or with mean age ≥ 55 years, the minimal duration of the RCT intervention was 6 weeks, and those lacking data about glycemic level and at least one indicator of physical performance were excluded. The Cochrane risk of bias tool was used to assess the bias of each study included. Bayesian NMA was performed as the main results, the Bayesian meta regression and the frequentist NMA as sensitivity analysis.
    RESULTS: Of the 2266 literature retrieved, 27 RCTs with a total of 2289 older adults were included. Health management provided by health workers exerts beneficial effects that is superior to other interventions at achieving glycemic control, but less marked improvement in physical performance. Exercise combined with cognitive training showed more pronounced improvement in muscle strength, gait speed, and dynamic balance, but ranked behind in decreasing the HbAc1 and FBG.
    CONCLUSIONS: Personalized health management combined with physical and cognitive training might be the optimal intervention to both accomplish glycemic control and improvement of physical performance. Further RCTs are needed to validate and assess the confidence of our results from this NMA.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这篇综述确定了家庭综合性保健(家庭CSH)的哪些要素影响了哪些关键人群,在什么情况下。对基于家庭的CSH的研究进行了现实主义者的回顾,该研究至少具有自我抽样或自我检测HIV和其他性健康护理(例如,治疗,咨询)。同行评议的定量和定性文献来自PubMed,Embase,Cochrane受控试验登记册,和PsycINFO在2012年2月至2023年2月之间发表的研究。PRISM框架用于系统地评估关键人群的覆盖范围,干预的有效性,以及对收养的影响,实施,和日常性保健中的维护。在730条唯一标识的记录中,选择93例进行提取。在这些研究中,60%报告了实际干预措施,40%描述了可接受性和可行性。研究主要基于欧洲或北美,主要针对MSM(59%;55/93)(R)。总的来说,在关键人群中,自我抽样或自我检测是高度可接受的.大多数研究的有效性是(预期)增加艾滋病毒检测。如果可以与护理挂钩,则采用基于家庭的CSH对于护理提供者来说是可以接受的,尽管少数研究报告了护理提供者的采用和干预措施的实施忠诚度.大多数研究建议维持以家庭为基础的CSH,以补充诊所为基础的护理。确定了可以增强基于家庭的CSH的实施和维护的上下文和机制。当为个人提供测试选择时,明确的指示,和量身定制的传播性传播感染和艾滋病毒检测的成功吸收可能会增加。对于实施者,客户的护理和治疗福利可能会增加他们实施基于家庭的CSH的意愿。因此,以家庭为基础的CSH可能会确定更容易获得的性健康护理,并增加关键人群对性传播感染和艾滋病毒检测的吸收。
    This review identifies which elements of home-based comprehensive sexual health care (home-based CSH) impacted which key populations, under which circumstances. A realist review of studies focused on home-based CSH with at least self-sampling or self-testing HIV and additional sexual health care (e.g., treatment, counseling). Peer-reviewed quantitative and qualitative literature from PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, and PsycINFO published between February 2012 and February 2023 was examined. The PRISM framework was used to systematically assess the reach of key populations, effectiveness of the intervention, and effects on the adoption, implementation, and maintenance within routine sexual health care. Of 730 uniquely identified records, 93 were selected for extraction. Of these studies, 60% reported actual interventions and 40% described the acceptability and feasibility. Studies were mainly based in Europe or North America and were mostly targeted to MSM (59%; 55/93) (R). Overall, self-sampling or self-testing was highly acceptable across key populations. The effectiveness of most studies was (expected) increased HIV testing. Adoption of the home-based CSH was acceptable for care providers if linkage to care was available, even though a minority of studies reported adoption by care providers and implementation fidelity of the intervention. Most studies suggested maintenance of home-based CSH complementary to clinic-based care. Context and mechanisms were identified which may enhance implementation and maintenance of home-based CSH. When providing the individual with a choice of testing, clear instructions, and tailored dissemination successful uptake of STI and HIV testing may increase. For implementers perceived care and treatment benefits for clients may increase their willingness to implement home-based CSH. Therefore, home-based CSH may determine more accessible sexual health care and increased uptake of STI and HIV testing among key populations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    肥胖和肥胖相关的代谢紊乱是全球流行病,当长期能量摄入超过能量消耗时发生。越来越多的证据表明,健康的饮食模式不仅可以降低肥胖的风险,还可以影响肠道微生物群的组成和功能。大量研究表明,肥胖的发展与肠道微生物群有关。一种有前途的补充策略是通过饮食模式调节肠道微生物群组成以对抗肥胖。在这次审查中,我们讨论了肥胖和肥胖相关代谢紊乱中肠道菌群的变化,特别强调饮食成分对肠道微生物群的影响,以及常见的食物模式如何干预肠道微生物群以预防肥胖。虽然有希望通过调节饮食模式来干预肠道微生物群以对抗肥胖,许多关键问题仍未得到回答。在这次审查中,我们批判性地回顾了饮食模式之间的关联,肠道微生物,肥胖,旨在为人类肥胖饮食模式的进一步发展和应用做出贡献。
    Obesity and obesity-related metabolic disorders are global epidemics that occur when there is chronic energy intake exceeding energy expenditure. Growing evidence suggests that healthy dietary patterns not only decrease the risk of obesity but also influence the composition and function of the gut microbiota. Numerous studies manifest that the development of obesity is associated with gut microbiota. One promising supplementation strategy is modulating gut microbiota composition by dietary patterns to combat obesity. In this review, we discuss the changes of gut microbiota in obesity and obesity-related metabolic disorders, with a particular emphasis on the impact of dietary components on gut microbiota and how common food patterns can intervene in gut microbiota to prevent obesity. While there is promise in intervening with the gut microbiota to combat obesity through the regulation of dietary patterns, numerous key questions remain unanswered. In this review, we critically review the associations between dietary patterns, gut microbes, and obesity, aiming to contribute to the further development and application of dietary patterns against obesity in humans.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:围产期抑郁症是一个全球性的公共卫生问题,严重影响围产期妇女的健康。本研究评估了围产期抑郁症筛查阳性的妇女对干预措施的汇总摄取率,为临床干预提供依据。
    方法:我们系统地搜索了四个数据库(PubMed,Embase,Cochrane图书馆和WebofScience)从数据库建立到2023年5月1日。所有纳入的研究均用于得出合并的摄取率。我们还使用STATA17.0进行了荟萃回归和亚组分析以探索异质性的潜在来源。
    结果:在检索到的15,024篇文章中,只有41人符合纳入标准。总摄取率为55%(95%CI43-67%)。Meta回归和亚组分析均显示,高收入国家的吸收率为57%(95%CI50-65%)高于低收入和中等收入国家的37%(95%CI18-56%)。
    结论:首先,只包括英文出版物。因此,其他语言的文章可能会被遗漏。第二,在包括的41项研究中,只有六项随机对照试验,证据质量有限。第三,我们不能充分解释异质性的来源,因为中介变量太多,尽管进行了进一步的亚组和敏感性分析.
    结论:大约一半的女性在筛查阳性后没有接受干预,高收入国家的干预措施吸收率高于低收入和中等收入国家。
    BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression is a global public health problem that seriously affects the health of perinatal women. This study evaluated the pooled uptake rate of interventions among women who screened positive for perinatal depression to provide a basis for clinical intervention.
    METHODS: We systematically searched four databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) from the establishment of the database to May 1, 2023. All included studies were used to derive the pooled uptake rate. We also performed meta-regression and subgroup analysis to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity using STATA 17.0.
    RESULTS: Of 15024 retrieved articles, only 41 met the inclusion criteria. The overall uptake rate was 55 % (95 % CI 43-67 %). Meta-regression and subgroup analyses both showed that the uptake rate in high-income countries 57 % (95 % CI 50-65 %) was higher than that in low and middle-income countries 37 % (95 % CI 18-56 %).
    CONCLUSIONS: First, only English publications were included. Therefore, articles in other languages were likely missed. Second, of the 41 studies included, there were only six randomized controlled trials, with limited quality of evidence. Third, we could not adequately explain the source of heterogeneity because there were too many mediating variables, although further subgroup and sensitivity analysis were performed.
    CONCLUSIONS: About a half of women did not receive interventions after screening positive, and the uptake rate of interventions in high-income countries was higher than that in low and middle-income countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:儿童和青少年,在自然和人为灾难之后,经常表现出各种心理,情感,和行为问题,显示一系列与创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)和抑郁症相关的临床症状。这篇综述使用网络荟萃分析(NMA)方法对暴露于自然和人为灾难后的儿童和青少年的PTSD和抑郁症的心理干预措施进行比较和排名。
    方法:确定了对暴露于自然和人为灾难的儿童和青少年的PTSD和抑郁症进行心理社会干预的随机研究。结果是干预后和1-12个月随访时的PTSD和抑郁症状。合并干预后和随访时干预对之间的标准化平均差异(SMD)。计算了95%可信区间(CI)的平均效应大小,并使用累积排序曲线下的表面估计所有干预措施的排序概率。使用Cochrane用于随机试验的偏倚风险工具(RoB2)的第2版评估研究质量。
    结果:总计,该NMA包括26项研究,包括4331名参与者。眼动脱敏和再处理治疗(EMDR)(SMD=-0.67;95%CI-1.17至-0.17),暴露疗法(ET)(SMD=-0.66;95%CI-1.11至-0.22),和认知行为疗法(CBT)(SMD=-0.62;95%CI-0.90至-0.34)在干预后对PTSD的疗效明显高于非活动干预。EMDR(SMD=-0.72;95%CI-1.11至-0.33)和ET(SMD=-0.62;95%CI-0.97至-0.27)与随访时PTSD症状的减少有关。干预后EMDR(SMD=-0.40;95%CI-0.78至-0.03)和游戏疗法(PT)(SMD=-0.37;95%CI-0.62至-0.12)对抑郁症的疗效明显高于非活动干预。对于所有在随访时减少抑郁症状的心理干预,与不活动干预相比,差异不显著。
    结论:EMDR似乎在减少遭受自然和人为灾害的儿童和青少年的PTSD和抑郁症方面最有效。此外,ET和CBT在干预后可能有效减少PTSD症状,而PT在治疗终点时有利于控制抑郁症状。
    BACKGROUND: Children and adolescents, after natural and man-made disasters, often exhibit various psychological, emotional, and behavioral issues, showing a range of clinical symptoms related to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. This review used a network meta-analysis (NMA) approach to compare and rank psychological interventions for PTSD and depression in children and adolescents after exposure to natural and man-made disasters.
    METHODS: Randomized studies of psychosocial interventions for PTSD and depression in children and adolescents exposed to natural and man-made disasters were identified. PTSD and depression symptoms at postintervention and 1-12 month follow-up are the outcomes. The standardized mean differences (SMDs) between pairs of interventions at postintervention and follow-up were pooled. Mean effect sizes with 95% credible intervals (CI) were calculated, and the ranking probabilities for all interventions were estimated using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve. Study quality was assessed with version 2 of the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials (RoB 2).
    RESULTS: In total, 26 studies with 4331 participants were included in this NMA. Eye movement desensitization and reprocessing therapy (EMDR) (SMD = - 0.67; 95% CI - 1.17 to - 0.17), exposure therapy (ET) (SMD = - 0.66; 95% CI - 1.11 to - 0.22), and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) (SMD = - 0.62; 95% CI - 0.90 to - 0.34) were significantly more effective for PTSD at postintervention than inactive intervention. EMDR (SMD = - 0.72; 95% CI - 1.11 to - 0.33) and ET (SMD = - 0.62; 95% CI - 0.97 to - 0.27) were associated with a higher reduction in PTSD symptoms at follow-up than inactive intervention. EMDR (SMD = - 0.40; 95% CI - 0.78 to - 0.03) and play therapy (PT) (SMD = - 0.37; 95% CI - 0.62 to - 0.12) were significantly more effective for depression at postintervention than inactive intervention. For all psychological interventions in reducing depression symptoms at follow-up compared with inactive intervention, the differences were not significant.
    CONCLUSIONS: EMDR appears to be most effective in reducing PTSD and depression in children and adolescents exposed to natural and man-made disasters. In addition, ET and CBT are potentially effective in reducing PTSD symptoms at postintervention, while PT is beneficial in managing depression symptoms at the treatment endpoint.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本系统综述和荟萃分析分析并总结了越来越多的关于聊天机器人提供的干预措施在增加摄取方面的有效性的文献。意图,以及与任何类型的疫苗接种有关的态度。我们确定了随机对照研究(RCT),准实验研究,以及来自以下平台的非实验研究:PubMed,WebofScience,MEDLINE,全球卫生,APAPsycInfo,EMBASE数据库。对2019年至2023年发表的12项符合条件的研究进行了分析和总结。特别是,一项RCT显示,聊天机器人提供的定制干预在促进老年人季节性流感疫苗摄取方面比聊天机器人提供的非定制干预更有效(50.5%对35.3%,p=0.002)。在荟萃分析中包括六个RCT,以评估聊天机器人干预措施改善疫苗接种态度和意图的有效性。总体态度变化的合并标准平均差(SMD)为0.34(95%置信区间[CI]:0.13,0.55,p=0.001)。我们发现聊天机器人干预对改善疫苗接种意向的影响不显著(SMD:0.11,95%CI:-0.13,0.34,p=0.38)。然而,需要进一步的证据来得出更准确的结论。此外,研究参与者报告说,使用聊天机器人的满意度很高,并且可能会推荐给其他人。聊天机器人的发展仍处于起步阶段,存在改进的空间。
    This systematic review and meta-analysis analyzed and summarized the growing literature on the effectiveness of chatbot-delivered interventions in increasing uptake, intention, and attitudes related to any type of vaccination. We identified randomized controlled studies (RCTs), quasi-experimental studies, and non-experimental studies from the following platforms: PubMed, Web of Science, MEDLINE, Global Health, APA PsycInfo, and EMBASE databases. A total of 12 eligible studies published from 2019 to 2023 were analyzed and summarized. In particular, one RCT showed that a chatbot-delivered tailored intervention was more effective than a chatbot-delivered non-tailored intervention in promoting seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among older adults (50.5% versus 35.3%, p = 0.002). Six RCTs were included in the meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of chatbot interventions to improve vaccination attitudes and intentions. The pooled standard mean difference (SMD) of overall attitude change was 0.34 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.13, 0.55, p = 0.001). We found a non-significant trivial effect of chatbot interventions on improving intentions of vaccination (SMD: 0.11, 95% CI: -0.13, 0.34, p = 0.38). However, further evidence is needed to draw a more precise conclusion. Additionally, study participants reported high satisfaction levels of using the chatbot and were likely to recommend it to others. The development of chatbots is still nascent and rooms for improvement exist.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:准确预测疫苗接种行为可以为卫生保健专业人员制定有针对性的干预措施提供见解。
    目的:本研究的目的是建立中国儿童流感疫苗接种行为的预测模型。
    方法:我们从无锡的一项前瞻性观察研究中获得了数据,中国东部。预测结果是个体水平的疫苗摄取,协变量包括儿童和父母的社会人口统计学,父母的疫苗犹豫,对临床方便的看法,对诊所服务的满意度,并愿意接种疫苗。贝叶斯网络,逻辑回归,最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归,支持向量机(SVM),朴素贝叶斯(NB),随机森林(RF),用决策树分类器构建预测模型。各种性能指标,包括接受者工作特性曲线下面积(AUC),用于评估不同模型的预测性能。接收器工作特性曲线和校准图用于评估模型性能。
    结果:总共2383名参与者被纳入研究;这些儿童中83.2%(n=1982)<5岁,6.6%(n=158)以前接种过流感疫苗。超过一半(1356/2383,56.9%)的父母表示愿意为孩子接种流感疫苗。在2383名儿童中,26.3%(n=627)在2020-2021年季节接受了流感疫苗接种。在训练集中,RF模型在所有指标中显示出最佳性能。在验证集中,logistic回归模型和NB模型的AUC值最高;SVM模型的准确率最高;NB模型的召回率最高;logistic回归模型的准确率最高。F1得分,和科恩κ值。LASSO和逻辑回归模型得到了很好的校准。
    结论:开发的预测模型可用于量化中国儿童季节性流感疫苗接种的吸收。逐步逻辑回归模型可能更适合预测目的。
    BACKGROUND: Predicting vaccination behaviors accurately could provide insights for health care professionals to develop targeted interventions.
    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop predictive models for influenza vaccination behavior among children in China.
    METHODS: We obtained data from a prospective observational study in Wuxi, eastern China. The predicted outcome was individual-level vaccine uptake and covariates included sociodemographics of the child and parent, parental vaccine hesitancy, perceptions of convenience to the clinic, satisfaction with clinic services, and willingness to vaccinate. Bayesian networks, logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), and decision tree classifiers were used to construct prediction models. Various performance metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the different models. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots were used to assess model performance.
    RESULTS: A total of 2383 participants were included in the study; 83.2% of these children (n=1982) were <5 years old and 6.6% (n=158) had previously received an influenza vaccine. More than half (1356/2383, 56.9%) the parents indicated a willingness to vaccinate their child against influenza. Among the 2383 children, 26.3% (n=627) received influenza vaccination during the 2020-2021 season. Within the training set, the RF model showed the best performance across all metrics. In the validation set, the logistic regression model and NB model had the highest AUC values; the SVM model had the highest precision; the NB model had the highest recall; and the logistic regression model had the highest accuracy, F1 score, and Cohen κ value. The LASSO and logistic regression models were well-calibrated.
    CONCLUSIONS: The developed prediction model can be used to quantify the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination for children in China. The stepwise logistic regression model may be better suited for prediction purposes.
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