BACKGROUND: During the pandemic, a notable increase in diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state (HHS), conditions that warrant emergent management, was reported. We aimed to investigate the trend of DKA- and HHS-related mortality and excess deaths during the pandemic.
METHODS: Annual age-standardized mortality rates related to DKA and HHS between 2006 and 2021 were estimated using a nationwide database. Forecast analyses based on prepandemic data were conducted to predict the mortality rates during the pandemic. Excess mortality rates were calculated by comparing the observed versus predicted mortality rates. Subgroup analyses of demographic factors were performed.
RESULTS: There were 71 575 DKA-related deaths and 8618 HHS-related deaths documented during 2006-2021. DKA, which showed a steady increase before the pandemic, demonstrated a pronounced excess mortality during the pandemic (36.91% in 2020 and 46.58% in 2021) with an annual percentage change (APC) of 29.4% (95% CI: 16.0%-44.0%). Although HHS incurred a downward trend during 2006-2019, the excess deaths in 2020 (40.60%) and 2021 (56.64%) were profound. Pediatric decedents exhibited the highest excess mortality. More than half of the excess deaths due to DKA were coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related (51.3% in 2020 and 63.4% in 2021), whereas only less than a quarter of excess deaths due to HHS were COVID-19 related. A widened racial/ethnic disparity was observed, and females exhibited higher excess mortality than males.
CONCLUSIONS: The DKA- and HHS-related excess mortality during the pandemic and relevant disparities emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate the escalated risk in these populations during public health crises.

UNASSIGNED: We aimed to determine the trend of TB-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic.
UNASSIGNED: TB-related mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed. Excess deaths were estimated by determining the difference between observed and projected mortality rates during the pandemic.
UNASSIGNED: A total of 18,628 TB-related deaths were documented from 2006 to 2021. TB-related age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were 0.51 in 2020 and 0.52 in 2021, corresponding to an excess mortality of 10.22 and 9.19%, respectively. Female patients with TB demonstrated a higher relative increase in mortality (26.33 vs. 2.17% in 2020; 21.48 vs. 3.23% in 2021) when compared to male. Female aged 45-64 years old showed a surge in mortality, with an annual percent change (APC) of -2.2% pre-pandemic to 22.8% (95% CI: -1.7 to 68.7%) during the pandemic, corresponding to excess mortalities of 62.165 and 99.16% in 2020 and 2021, respectively; these excess mortality rates were higher than those observed in the overall female population ages 45-64 years in 2020 (17.53%) and 2021 (33.79%).
UNASSIGNED: The steady decline in TB-related mortality in the United States has been reversed by COVID-19. Female with TB were disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

UNASSIGNED: The aim of this study is to estimate the excess mortality burden of influenza virus infection in China from 2012 to 2021, with a concurrent analysis of its associated disease manifestations.
UNASSIGNED: Laboratory surveillance data on influenza, relevant population demographics, and mortality records, including cause of death data in China, spanning the years 2012 to 2021, were incorporated into a comprehensive analysis. A negative binomial regression model was utilized to calculate the excess mortality rate associated with influenza, taking into consideration factors such as year, subtype, and cause of death.
UNASSIGNED: There was no evidence to indicate a correlation between malignant neoplasms and any subtype of influenza, despite the examination of the effect of influenza on the mortality burden of eight diseases. A total of 327,520 samples testing positive for influenza virus were isolated between 2012 and 2021, with a significant decrease in the positivity rate observed during the periods of 2012-2013 and 2019-2020. China experienced an average annual influenza-associated excess deaths of 201721.78 and an average annual excess mortality rate of 14.53 per 100,000 people during the research period. Among the causes of mortality that were examined, respiratory and circulatory diseases (R&C) accounted for the most significant proportion (58.50%). Fatalities attributed to respiratory and circulatory diseases exhibited discernible temporal patterns, whereas deaths attributable to other causes were dispersed over the course of the year.
UNASSIGNED: Theoretically, the contribution of these disease types to excess influenza-related fatalities can serve as a foundation for early warning and targeted influenza surveillance. Additionally, it is possible to assess the costs of prevention and control measures and the public health repercussions of epidemics with greater precision.

BACKGROUND: The population with depression had a considerable excess mortality risk. This increased mortality may be attributed to the biological consequences of depression or the substantial prevalence of health risk behaviors (HRBs). This study aimed to quantify the combined effects of four major HRBs - smoking, excessive alcohol use, physical inactivity, and an unhealthy diet - on excess mortality among depressed individuals.
METHODS: This study included 35,738 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-06 to 2017-18, with mortality follow-up data censored through 2019. The standardized prevalence of HRBs was calculated for populations with and without depression. Poisson regression models were used to calculate the mortality rate ratio (MRR). Based on model adjusting for socio-demographic factors, the attenuation of MRR was determined after further adjustment for HRBs.
RESULTS: A total of 3147 participants were identified as having depression. All HRBs showed a significantly higher prevalence among the population with depression. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors, depression was associated with 1.7 and 1.8 times higher all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality rate, respectively. Further adjustment for all current HRBs resulted in a 21.9 % reduction in all-cause mortality rate and a 15.4 % decrease in cardiovascular disease mortality rate.
CONCLUSIONS: HRBs were reported at a single time point, and we are unable to demonstrate a causal effect.
CONCLUSIONS: At least 1/5 of excess mortality for population with depression was attributable to HRBs. Efforts should be made to address HRBs among population with depression.

OBJECTIVE: Intertrochanteric fracture is one type of hip fracture, which is the most serious consequence of osteoporosis. Along with the growing elderly population, intertrochanteric fracture is expected to rise increasingly. The aim of this study was to assess excess mortality after intertrochanteric fractures and to identify the predictors of long-term mortality by therapy among patients aged 50 years and older in Tianjin.
METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study on mortality for 3029 patients aged 50 years and older in Tianjin experiencing an intertrochanteric fracture between December 26, 2014 and December 31, 2018. Data were from Tianjin Hospital Hip Fracture (THHF) cohort. Follow-up period was until March 31, 2022. Mortality, excess mortality, and comorbidities were analyzed and stratified by therapy and gender. Time dependent Cox models were performed to estimate the effects of the variables.
RESULTS: Absolute mortality for all the patients was 5.90% at 3 months, 12.55% at 12 months, 19.92% at 24 months and 27.28% at 36 months. Absolute mortality for surgical group was 1.57% at 3 months, 4.77% at 12 months, 8.49% at 24 months and 12.07% at 36 months, significantly lower than conservative group: 10.50% at 3 months, 20.73% at 12 months, 31.96% at 24 months and 43.04% at 36 months. We found a substantially lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.34, 95% confidence internal, [CI]: 0.23-0.52, p = 0.000) among patients undergoing surgical therapy than those undergoing conservative therapy, even when controlled for gender, age, the length of hospital stay, and all the comorbidities. Female patients (HR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.58-0.79, p = 0.000) were less likely to die than male patients after an intertrochanteric fracture. Patients treated by the two methods were both found to have excess mortality rates compared to the general population, although in different levels. The excess mortality rates for patients in the conservative therapy group were 14.46% in males and 17.93% in females, while in the surgical therapy group, 2.78% in females and 4.37% in males. The comorbidities moderate or severe renal disease (HR 2.19, 95% CI: 1.61-2.98, p = 0.000), metastatic solid tumor (HR 6.35, 95% CI: 1.56-25.85, p = 0.010), hypoproteinemia (HR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.01-1.47, p = 0.034), and older age (HR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.73-2.08, p = 0.000) were also risk factors on mortality. A worse-case analysis for the primary outcome were performed as sensitivity analysis and it was consistent with the original conclusion.
CONCLUSIONS: Intertrochanteric factures for people aged 50 years older were found to have excess mortality compared to the general population in Tianjin city, and preventing the fractures in the hip for elderly people was imperative. After controlling tfor comorbidities and age, female gender and surgical therapy were protective factors for the death after fractures, which could provide strong evidence for patients and surgeons to make decisions.

Trust plays a crucial role in implementing public health interventions against the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the prospective associations of interpersonal, institutional, and media trust with vaccination rates and excess mortality over time in two multinational studies. In study 1, we investigated the country-level relationships between interpersonal trust, vaccination rates, and excess mortality across 54 countries. Interpersonal trust at the country level was calculated by aggregating data of 80,317 participants from the World Values Survey in 2017-20. Data on vaccination rates and excess mortality were obtained from the World Health Organization. Our findings indicated that higher levels of interpersonal trust were linked to higher vaccination rates and lower excess mortality rates in both 2020 and 2021. In study 2, we collected data from 18,171 adults in 35 countries/societies, stratified by age, gender, and region of residence. At the country/society level, interpersonal trust and trust in local healthcare facilities, local healthcare services, and healthcare professionals were associated with higher vaccination rates and lower excess mortality, whereas social media trust was associated with lower vaccination rates and higher excess mortality across three time points over 2 years. Our findings are robust when controlling for country-level covariates of the government stringency index, population density, and medical resources (i.e. critical care beds) in both studies.

Objectives: To evaluate excess deaths of gastrointestinal, liver, and pancreatic diseases in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We retrieved weekly death counts from National Vital Statistics System and fitted them with a quasi-Poisson regression model. Cause-specific excess deaths were calculated by the difference between observed and expected deaths with adjustment for temporal trend and seasonality. Demographic disparities and temporal-spatial patterns were evaluated for different diseases. Results: From March 2020 to September 2022, the increased mortality (measured by excess risks) for Clostridium difficile colitis, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and acute pancreatitis were 35.9%; 24.8%; and 20.6% higher than the expected. For alcoholic liver disease, fibrosis/cirrhosis, and hepatic failure, the excess risks were 1.4-2.8 times higher among younger inhabitants than older inhabitants. The excess deaths of selected diseases were persistently observed across multiple epidemic waves with fluctuating trends for gastrointestinal hemorrhage and fibrosis/cirrhosis and an increasing trend for C. difficile colitis. Conclusion: The persistently observed excess deaths of digestive diseases highlights the importance for healthcare authorities to develop sustainable strategies in response to the long-term circulating of SARS-CoV-2 in the community.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has continued for more than 3 years, placing a huge burden on society worldwide. Although the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared an end to COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), it is still considered a global threat. Previously, there has been a long debate as to whether the COVID-19 emergency will eventually end or transform into a more common infectious disease from a PHEIC, and how should countries respond to similar pandemics in the future more time-efficiently and cost-effectively. We reviewed the past, middle and current situation of COVID-19 based on bibliometric analysis and epidemiological data. Thereby, the necessity is indicated to change the paradigm from reactive healthcare services to predictive, preventive and personalised medicine (PPPM) approach, in order to effectively protect populations against COVID-19 and any future pandemics. Corresponding measures are detailed in the article including the involvement of multi-professional expertise, application of artificial intelligence, rapid diagnostics and patient stratification, and effective protection, amongst other to be considered by advanced health policy.

Excess death estimates have great value in public health, but they can be sensitive to analytical choices. Here we propose a multiverse analysis approach that considers all possible different time periods for defining the reference baseline and a range of 1 to 4 years for the projected time period for which excess deaths are calculated. We used data from the Human Mortality Database on 33 countries with detailed age-stratified death information on an annual basis during the period 2009-2021. The use of different time periods for reference baseline led to large variability in the absolute magnitude of the exact excess death estimates. However, the relative ranking of different countries compared to others for specific years remained largely unaltered. The relative ranking of different years for the specific country was also largely independent of baseline. Averaging across all possible analyses, distinct time patterns were discerned across different countries. Countries had declines between 2009 and 2019, but the steepness of the decline varied markedly. There were also large differences across countries on whether the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020-2021 resulted in an increase of excess deaths and by how much. Consideration of longer projected time windows resulted in substantial shrinking of the excess deaths in many, but not all countries. Multiverse analysis of excess deaths over long periods of interest can offer an approach that better accounts for the uncertainty in estimating expected mortality patterns, comparative mortality trends across different countries, and the nature of observed mortality peaks.

Accurate estimation of the influenza death burden is of great significance for influenza prevention and control. However, few studies have considered the short-term harvesting effects of influenza on mortality when estimating influenza-associated excess deaths by cause of death, age, sex, and subtype/lineage.
This study aimed to estimate the cause-, age-, and sex-specific excess mortality associated with influenza and its subtypes and lineages in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2018.
Distributed-lag nonlinear models were fitted to estimate the excess mortality related to influenza subtypes or lineages for different causes of death, age groups, and sex based on daily time-series data for mortality, influenza, and meteorological factors.
A total of 199,777 death certificates were included in the study. The average annual influenza-associated excess mortality rate (EMR) was 25.06 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 19.85-30.16) per 100,000 persons; 7142 of 8791 (81.2%) deaths were due to respiratory or cardiovascular mortality (EMR 20.36, 95% eCI 16.75-23.74). Excess respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in people aged 60 to 79 years and those aged ≥80 years accounted for 32.9% (2346/7142) and 63.7% (4549/7142) of deaths, respectively. The male to female ratio (MFR) of excess death from respiratory diseases was 1.34 (95% CI 1.17-1.54), while the MFR for excess death from cardiovascular disease was 0.72 (95% CI 0.63-0.82). The average annual excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates attributed to influenza A (H3N2), B/Yamagata, B/Victoria, and A (H1N1) were 8.47 (95% eCI 6.60-10.30), 5.81 (95% eCI 3.35-8.25), 3.68 (95% eCI 0.81-6.49), and 2.83 (95% eCI -1.26 to 6.71), respectively. Among these influenza subtypes/lineages, A (H3N2) had the highest excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates for people aged 60 to 79 years (20.22, 95% eCI 14.56-25.63) and ≥80 years (180.15, 95% eCI 130.75-227.38), while younger people were more affected by A (H1N1), with an EMR of 1.29 (95% eCI 0.07-2.32). The mortality displacement of influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and B/Yamagata was 2 to 5 days, but 5 to 13 days for B/Victoria.
Influenza was associated with substantial mortality in Guangzhou, occurring predominantly in the elderly, even after considering mortality displacement. The mortality burden of influenza B, particularly B/Yamagata, cannot be ignored. Contrasting sex differences were found in influenza-associated excess mortality from respiratory diseases and from cardiovascular diseases; the underlying mechanisms need to be investigated in future studies. Our findings can help us better understand the magnitude and time-course of the effect of influenza on mortality and inform targeted interventions for mitigating the influenza mortality burden, such as immunizations with quadrivalent vaccines (especially for older people), behavioral campaigns, and treatment strategies.