Models, Econometric

模型,计量经济学
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为一种新型的经济业态,数字经济具有三大特点:技术、创新,节能环保。作用于国民经济的各个部门,这有利于提高碳排放效率,对实现中国的碳峰值和碳中和两大目标具有重要意义。首先,数字经济对碳排放效率影响机理的理论分析,提出关于直接影响的研究假设,中介效应,数字经济对碳排放效率的空间效应。其次,基于2011-2020年中国279个城市的面板数据,构建计量模型,调解,数字经济对碳排放效率的空间效应。结果表明:1)数字经济可以提高碳排放效率;2)数字经济对碳排放效率的影响呈“U”形关系,这与“环境库兹涅茨曲线”假设一致;3)数字经济对碳排放效率的影响存在于城市异质性中,具体表现为区域异质性和城市规模异质性;4)技术创新是数字经济中提高碳排放效率的重要中介,在数字经济中促进技术创新可以提高碳排放效率;5)数字经济对碳排放效率具有空间效应,从而提高周边城市的碳排放效率。最后,基于上述结果,从三个方面提出了建议:推动数字经济重要产业和重点领域深耕碳排放,强调数字经济发展的区域平衡,加强数字经济发展的区域合作,继续发挥数字经济对提高碳排放效率的积极作用。
    As a new type of economic format, digital economy has three major characteristics: technical, innovative, energy-saving and environmentally friendly. Acting on various sectors of the national economy, it is beneficial for improving carbon emission efficiency and is of great significance for achieving China\'s two major goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Firstly, theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism of digital economy on carbon emission efficiency, proposing research hypotheses on the direct effect, mediating effect, and spatial effect of digital economy on carbon emission efficiency. Secondly, based on panel data from 279 cities in China from 2011 to 2020, the econometric models are constructed to empirically analyze the direct, mediating, and spatial effects of digital economy on carbon emission efficiency. The results show that: 1) Digital economy can improve carbon emission efficiency; 2) The impact of digital economy on carbon emission efficiency has a \"U\"-shaped relationship, which is consistent with the \"Environmental Kuznets Curve\" hypothesis; 3) The impacts of digital economy on carbon emission efficiency exist in urban heterogeneity, specifically manifested as regional heterogeneity and urban scale heterogeneity; 4) Technological innovation is an important mediator for improving carbon emission efficiency in digital economy, and promoting technological innovation in digital economy can improve carbon emission efficiency; 5) Digital economy has spatial effect on carbon emission efficiency, which can improve the carbon emission efficiency of neighboring cities. Finally, based on the above results, suggestions are proposed from three aspects: promoting important industries and key areas for deep cultivation of carbon emission in digital economy, emphasizing regional balance in the development of digital economy, and strengthening regional cooperation in the development of digital economy, in order to continue to play a positive role in improving carbon emission efficiency through digital economy.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国是一个农业大国,大部分人口居住在农村地区。农村卫生资源配置对农村居民基本生命健康权益的影响显著。尽管中国政府在改善农村医疗保健方面取得了进展,仍有改进的空间。本研究旨在评估中国农村卫生资源配置效率的空间溢出效应。特别关注乡镇卫生院(THC),并考察影响这一效率的因素,为我国农村卫生资源的优化配置提供建议。
    本研究通过使用超效率SBM模型和全球Malmquist模型,分析了2012年至2021年中国农村地区的卫生资源配置效率。此外,通过Moran检验验证了THC卫生资源配置效率的空间自相关性,构建了三个空间计量经济模型,进一步分析了效率的影响因素。
    主要发现是:首先,THC中卫生资源分配的平均效率为0.676,这表明过去10年卫生资源分配效率普遍低下.其次,THC的平均Malmquist生产率指数为0.968,表明效率呈下降趋势,具有非规模和非技术效率特征。第三,Moran指数分析表明,效率具有显著的空间自相关,大多数省份的值位于空间集聚象限。第四,SDM模型确定了不同程度影响THC卫生资源配置效率的几个因素,包括总卫生资源配置的效率,人口密度,PGDP,城市失业率,人均可支配收入,人均医疗支出比率,公共卫生预算,和客运量。
    为了提高中国THC医疗资源配置的效率,政府不仅要管理卫生资源的投资,以符合卫生服务的实际需求,还要利用效率的空间溢出效应。这涉及到关注医疗资源总体配置效率等因素,人口密度,等。切实提高卫生资源配置效率,保障农村居民健康。
    UNASSIGNED: China is a large agricultural nation with the majority of the population residing in rural areas. The allocation of health resources in rural areas significantly affects the basic rights to life and health for rural residents. Despite the progress made by the Chinese government in improving rural healthcare, there is still room for improvement. This study aims to assess the spatial spillover effects of rural health resource allocation efficiency in China, particularly focusing on township health centers (THCs), and examine the factors influencing this efficiency to provide recommendations to optimize the allocation of health resources in rural China.
    UNASSIGNED: This study analyzed health resource allocation efficiency in Chinese rural areas from 2012 to 2021 by using the super-efficiency SBM model and the global Malmquist model. Additionally, the spatial auto-correlation of THC health resource allocation efficiency was verified through Moran test, and three spatial econometric models were constructed to further analyze the factors influencing efficiency.
    UNASSIGNED: The key findings are: firstly, the average efficiency of health resource allocation in THCs was 0.676, suggesting a generally inefficient allocation of health resources over the decade. Secondly, the average Malmquist productivity index of THCs was 0.968, indicating a downward trend in efficiency with both non-scale and non-technical efficient features. Thirdly, Moran\'s Index analysis revealed that efficiency has a significant spatial auto-correlation and most provinces\' values are located in the spatial agglomeration quadrant. Fourthly, the SDM model identified several factors that impact THC health resource allocation efficiency to varying degrees, including the efficiency of total health resource allocation, population density, PGDP, urban unemployment rate, per capita disposable income, per capita healthcare expenditure ratio, public health budget, and passenger traffic volume.
    UNASSIGNED: To enhance the efficiency of THC healthcare resource allocation in China, the government should not only manage the investment of health resources to align with the actual demand for health services but also make use of the spatial spillover effect of efficiency. This involves focusing on factors such as total healthcare resource allocation efficiency, population density, etc. to effectively enhance the efficiency of health resource allocation and ensure the health of rural residents.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    根据2018年CHARLS的数据,本文利用MEPI和10%的阈值指标,分别,评估中国中老年人的能源贫困(EP)状况,关注能源服务的不可用和不可承受性。此外,构建了一个计量经济学模型来研究EP对中老年人健康和福利的影响。回归结果表明,EP对中老年人的健康和福利有显著的负面影响。在进行内生性和稳健性检验后,这一结论仍然稳健,证明其有效性。最后,根据计算结果,我们提出了相关的政策建议,包括加强农村地区老年人的能源服务,将家庭能源替代品与有针对性的扶贫相结合,加强监测机制,并开展能量教育活动,以缓解EP并提高中老年人的生活质量。
    Drawing upon data from the 2018 CHARLS, this paper utilizes MEPI and a 10% threshold indicator to, respectively, assess the energy poverty (EP) status among middle-aged and older adults in China, focusing on the unavailability and unaffordability of energy services. Additionally, an econometric model is constructed to investigate the effects of EP on the health and welfare of middle-aged and older adults. Regression results indicate that EP exerts a significant negative impact on the health and welfare of middle-aged and older adults. This conclusion remains robust after conducting endogeneity and robustness tests, demonstrating its validity. Finally, based on the calculation results, we propose relevant policy recommendations including enhancing energy services for older adults in rural areas, integrating household energy alternatives with targeted poverty alleviation, enhancing monitoring mechanisms, and conducting energy education activities to alleviate EP and improve the quality of life of middle-aged and older adults.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19大流行期间的全球人口涌入对公共卫生构成了重大挑战,使传染病的预防和控制成为紧迫的问题。本文旨在研究人口流入对传染病传播的影响,特别强调空气污染在这一过程中的中介作用。进行了理论分析,以探讨人口流入之间的关系,空气污染,和传染病。此外,我们建立了一系列计量经济模型,并采用了各种实证检验和分析技术,包括调解效果测试,阈值效应测试,和系统的GMM测试,评估我们的假设。结果表明:(1)人口流入直接和间接影响传染病。具体来说,人口流入不仅直接增加了传染病的风险,而且还通过加剧空气污染间接增加了传染病的发病率。(2)人口流入对传染病的影响具有区域异质性。与中国中西部相比,东部地区的传染病风险明显更高,超过全国平均水平。(3)外部因素对人口流入与传染病的关系有不同程度的影响。个人收入和医疗资源都有助于减轻因人口涌入而导致传染病的风险,医疗资源有更大的影响。与预期相反,丰富的教育资源并没有降低风险,相反,它们加剧了与人口涌入相关的风险。为制定有效的传染病防控策略提供科学依据。
    The global population influx during the COVID-19 pandemic poses significant challenges to public health, making the prevention and control of infectious diseases a pressing concern. This paper aims to examine the impact of population influx on the spread of infectious diseases, with a specific emphasis on the mediating role of air pollution in this process. A theoretical analysis is conducted to explore the relationship between population influx, air pollution, and infectious diseases. Additionally, we establish a series of econometric models and employ various empirical tests and analytical techniques, including mediation effect test, threshold effect test, and systematic GMM test, to evaluate our hypotheses. The results indicate that: (1) Population influx directly and indirectly impacts infectious diseases. Specifically, population influx not only directly elevates the risk of infectious diseases, but also indirectly increases the incidence rate of infectious diseases by intensifying air pollution. (2) The impact of population inflow on infectious diseases exhibits regional heterogeneity. Compared to central and western China, the eastern regions exhibit a significantly higher risk of infectious diseases, exceeding the national average. (3) External factors influence the relationship between population influx and infectious diseases differently. Personal income and medical resources both help mitigate the risk of infectious diseases due to population influx, with medical resources having a more substantial effect. Contrary to expectations, abundant educational resources have not reduced the risk, instead, they have exacerbated the risk associated with population influx. This paper provides a scientific basis for formulating effective strategies for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管关于减少碳排放的研究很多,从空间结构的角度理解宏观经济因素对二氧化碳(CO2)排放的影响存在显著差距。本研究旨在通过调查1989年至2020年间六个东非国家的宏观经济因素对二氧化碳排放的影响,为文献做出贡献。使用空间计量经济面板模型,研究分析了变量之间的空间依赖性。实证结果表明,人均国内生产总值(GDP)和电力消费对碳排放有积极的直接和间接影响,虽然燃料价格和出口有负面的直接影响,但对邻国的积极溢出效应。进口对当地经济有积极影响,而是负面的溢出效应。此外,城市人口对环境没有显著影响。这些发现为东非国家优化空间增长模式和实现低碳经济提供了重要的政策含义。
    Despite the abundance of research on reducing carbon emissions, there is a significant gap in understanding the influence of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a spatial-structural perspective. This study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide emissions in six East African countries between 1989 and 2020. Using spatial econometric panel models, the study analyzed spatial dependence among the variables. The empirical findings indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and electricity consumption have positive direct and indirect effects on carbon emissions, while fuel prices and exports have negative direct effects, but positive spillover effects on neighboring countries. Imports have a positive impact on local economies, but negative spillover effects. Additionally, the urban population has no significant impact on the environment. These findings provide important policy implications for optimizing spatial growth patterns and achieving a low-carbon economy in East African countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:从社会角度评估布地奈德/福莫特罗缓解剂和维持治疗与沙美特罗/氟替卡松联合沙丁胺醇缓解治疗≥12年哮喘患者的成本-效果。方法:建立了具有三种健康状况(非恶化,恶化,和死亡)与一生的地平线。急性加重率来自对中国哮喘患者进行的前瞻性队列研究。根据当前的临床哮喘管理指南估计医疗资源利用数据。哮喘相关死亡率,成本投入和效用值来自公共数据库和文献。通过单向灵敏度和概率灵敏度分析评估模型的稳健性。结果:与沙美特罗/氟替卡松+沙丁胺醇相比,布地奈德/福莫特罗缓解剂和维持治疗导致急性加重事件减少(13.6vs.15.9)和0.0077质量调整寿命年(QALY)收益,整个寿命期间的额外成本为196.38日元。基本情况增量成本效益比(ICER)为每QALY25,409.98日元。对模型输出影响最大的变量包括药物成本和药物依从性。支付意愿门槛为257,094日元/QALY(2022年为中国人均国内生产总值的3倍),布地奈德/福莫特罗维持和缓解治疗与沙美特罗/氟替卡松加视需要沙丁胺醇相比具有成本效益的概率为83.00%.结论:从社会的角度来看,对于≥12岁的中国哮喘患者,与沙美特罗/氟替卡松加按需沙丁胺醇相比,布地奈德/福莫特罗缓解剂和维持治疗可能是一种具有成本效益的选择.
    UNASSIGNED: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of budesonide/formoterol reliever and maintenance therapy compared with salmeterol/fluticasone plus salbutamol as reliever therapy for asthma patients ≥12 years from the societal perspective in China.
    UNASSIGNED: A Markov model was developed with three health states (non-exacerbation, exacerbation, and death) with a lifetime horizon. The exacerbation rates were obtained from a prospective cohort study conducted in Chinese asthma patients. Healthcare resources utilization data were estimated based on current clinical asthma management guidelines. Asthma-related mortality, cost input and utility values were derived from public database and literature. Model robustness was assessed with one-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.
    UNASSIGNED: Compared with salmeterol/fluticasone plus salbutamol, budesonide/formoterol reliever and maintenance therapy led to fewer exacerbation events (13.6 vs. 15.9) and 0.0077 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gain at an additional cost of ¥196.38 over lifetime. The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was ¥25,409.98 per QALY gained. The variables that had most impact on the model output included drug costs and medication adherence. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥257,094/QALY (3 times of gross domestic product per capita in China in 2022), the probability of budesonide/formoterol maintenance and reliever therapy being cost-effective versus salmeterol/fluticasone plus as-needed salbutamol was 83.00%.
    UNASSIGNED: From the societal perspective, budesonide/formoterol reliever and maintenance therapy is likely to be a cost-effective option compared with salmeterol/fluticasone plus as-needed salbutamol for Chinese asthma patients ≥12 years.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    可持续发展和提高国内出口增加值率(DVARE)已成为追求高质量经济增长的重要优先事项。本研究使用2008年至2019年中国企业的数据建立了计量经济空间模型。根据一项研究,出口\‘国内附加值率(DVAR)可以通过环境、社会,和治理(ESG)实践。空间溢出分析表明,采用ESG做法可以在区域内部和区域之间促进DVAR的出口。根据异质性分析,由于ESG实践,样本在DVARE中的总体增长主要归因于混合和加工贸易组织,东部地区,和大公司。对基础机制的研究表明,实施先进技术的企业能够加强ESG实践对DVARE的有利影响。本文提供了来自现实世界研究的证据,表明ESG实践如何帮助促进中国出口和促进可持续发展。这些发现对其他发展中国家在向经济增长模式过渡时具有重要意义。
    Sustainable development and raising the domestic value-added rate of exports (DVARE) have become essential priorities in the pursuit of high-quality economic growth. An econometric spatial model is developed in this research using data on Chinese enterprises spanning 2008 to 2019. According to a study, exports\' domestic value-added rate (DVAR) can be successfully increased using environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices. Spatial spillover analysis demonstrates that adopting ESG practices boosts export DVAR both within and between regions. According to heterogeneity analysis, the sample\'s overall increase in DVARE as a result of ESG practices is mostly attributable to the mix and processing trade organizations, the eastern area, and large firms. An examination of the underlying mechanisms shows that businesses that implement advanced technologies are able to reinforce the favorable impact of ESG practices on DVARE. This article gives evidence from real-world studies that show how ESG practices help boost Chinese exports and advance sustainable development. The findings hold significant implications for other developing nations as they make the transition towards a pattern of economic growth.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为了优化我国医疗卫生体系,提高人民健康水平,SFAMalmquist模型,空间计量经济模型,采用标准差椭圆法对2010-2020年我国31个省份的医疗卫生服务效率进行测算。研究结果表明,31个省份的平均效率值普遍超过0.8。具体来说,东部和中部地区的平均效率值分别从0.852增加到0.875和从0.858增加到0.88。在西部和东北地区,这些值分别从0.804上升到0.835和从0.827上升到0.854。从空间分布的角度来看,大多数省份存在高-高和低-低集群,它们之间具有显著的空间依赖性。该分析表明,中国的医疗卫生服务效率呈现出从东北向西南延伸的空间格局。
    In order to optimize the Chinese medical and health system and improve people\'s health level, the SFA Malmquist model, the spatial econometric model, and the standard deviation ellipse method were used to measure the efficiency of medical and health services in China\'s 31 provinces between 2010 and 2020. Study results indicated that the average efficiency value of the 31 provinces generally exceeded 0.8. Specifically, the average efficiency values in the eastern and central regions increased from 0.852 to 0.875 and from 0.858 to 0.88, respectively. In the western and northeastern regions, these values rose from 0.804 to 0.835 and from 0.827 to 0.854, respectively. From the perspective of spatial distribution, there were high-high and low-low clusters in most provinces with significant spatial dependence among them. This analysis reveals that medical and health services efficiency in China demonstrates a spatial pattern extending from northeast to southwest.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    医疗资源是个人维持健康所必需的。自2009年新医改实施以来,中国政府实施了优化医疗资源配置的政策,实现了中国人民医疗保健平等的目标。鉴于没有研究从医疗资源集聚的角度研究区域差异,本研究旨在调查中国2009-2017年的医疗卫生集聚状况,找出其影响因素,为政府制定和实施科学合理的医疗卫生政策提供理论依据。
    这项研究是使用2009-2017年的数据来分析机构的卫生资源集聚,beds,和中国的劳动力。应用集聚指数评估医疗资源配置的区域差异程度,构建了空间计量模型,以确定医疗资源空间集聚的决定因素。
    从2009年到2017年,除了中国的机构数量外,医疗保健的所有集聚指数均呈下降趋势。人口密度(PD),政府卫生支出(GHE),城镇居民可支配收入(URDI),地理位置(GL),和城市化水平(UL)都对床的集聚有显著的正向影响,而人均卫生支出(PCHE),大学生人数(NCS),和孕产妇死亡率(MMR)对机构集聚有显著的负面影响,beds,和劳动力。此外,一个省的人口密度(PD)和人均国内生产总值(PCGDP)对邻近省份的床位和劳动力集聚具有负的空间溢出效应。然而,MMR对这些地区的床位和劳动力的集聚具有积极的空间溢出效应。
    从2009年到2017年,中国医疗资源的集聚保持在理想水平。根据重要的决定因素,应充分制定中国政府和其他发展中国家相应的针对性措施,以平衡跨行政区域医疗资源集聚的地区差异。
    UNASSIGNED: Healthcare resources are necessary for individuals to maintain their health. The Chinese government has implemented policies to optimize the allocation of healthcare resources and achieve the goal of equality in healthcare for the Chinese people since the implementation of the new medical reform in 2009. Given that no study has investigated regional differences from the perspective of healthcare resource agglomeration, this study aimed to investigate China\'s healthcare agglomeration from 2009 to 2017 in China and identify its determinants to provide theoretical evidence for the government to develop and implement scientific and rational healthcare policies.
    UNASSIGNED: The study was conducted using 2009-2017 data to analyze health-resource agglomeration on institutions, beds, and workforce in China. An agglomeration index was applied to evaluate the degree of regional differences in healthcare resource allocation, and spatial econometric models were constructed to identify determinants of the spatial agglomeration of healthcare resources.
    UNASSIGNED: From 2009 to 2017, all the agglomeration indexes of healthcare exhibited a downward trend except for the number of institutions in China. Population density (PD), government health expenditures (GHE), urban resident\'s disposable income (URDI), geographical location (GL), and urbanization level (UL) all had positive significant effects on the agglomeration of beds, whereas both per capita health expenditures (PCHE), number of college students (NCS), and maternal mortality rate (MMR) had significant negative effects on the agglomeration of institutions, beds, and the workforce. In addition, population density (PD) and per capita gross domestic product (PCGDP) in one province had negative spatial spillover effects on the agglomeration of beds and the workforce in neighboring provinces. However, MMR had a positive spatial spillover effect on the agglomeration of beds and the workforce in those regions.
    UNASSIGNED: The agglomeration of healthcare resources was observed to remain at an ideal level in China from 2009 to 2017. According to the significant determinants, some corresponding targeted measures for the Chinese government and other developing countries should be fully developed to balance regional disparities in the agglomeration of healthcare resources across administrative regions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:医疗服务效率是衡量医疗服务公平性的重要指标。因此,这项研究主要集中在调查时空领域,以探索时空特征,以及影响我国不同省份医疗服务效率的影响因素。
    方法:先前已使用基于Epsilon的超度量(EBM)意外模型来量化能源生态效率,碳排放效率,绿色发展效率。然而,有限的研究已经应用这种方法来评估医疗服务的效率。因此,这项研究探讨了超EBM-意外模型在评估医疗服务效率中的应用,并进一步整合空间计量经济模型,探索医疗服务效率的影响因素,找出潜在的改善途径。
    结果:中国31个省份的医疗服务平均效率在0.6到0.7之间,主要是低效率值。然而,经济发达的沿海地区表现出高于1的相对较高的效率水平。相反,经济发展水平相对较低的地区的效率较低,约为0.3。显然,存在很大的地区差异。对于影响因素,居民生活水平的提高可以有效地提高医疗服务效率,而附近地区的居民生活水平也会对该地区产生影响。受教育程度对医疗服务效率的影响表现出显著的抑制作用。
    结论:中国31个省份中的大多数医疗服务效率都不理想,地区差异显著。未来的政策举措应量身定做,以应对经济发展水平较低的地区所面临的独特挑战,优先提高其医疗保健系统的功效和质量。
    BACKGROUND: Medical service efficiency is an important indicator for measuring the equity of medical services. Therefore, this study primarily focuses on investigating the spatiotemporal domain to explore both spatial and temporal characteristics, as well as influencing factors that affect medical service efficiency across diverse provinces in China.
    METHODS: The super Epsilon-based Measure (EBM) unexpected model has previously been utilized to quantify energy eco-efficiency, carbon emission efficiency, and green development efficiency. However, limited studies have applied this method to assess the efficiency of healthcare services. Therefore, this study investigates the application of the super-EBM-unexpected model in evaluating medical service efficiency, and further integrates spatial econometric models to explore the influencing factors of medical service efficiency and aims to identify potential avenues for improvement.
    RESULTS: The average efficiency of medical services in the 31 provinces of China ranges from 0.6 to 0.7, indicating predominantly low efficiency values. However, economically developed coastal areas exhibit relatively high efficiency levels above 1. Conversely, regions with relatively lower levels of economic development demonstrate lower efficiency rates at approximately 0.3. Evidently, substantial regional disparities exist. For the influencing factors, the enhancement of residents\' living standards can effectively foster the medical service efficiency, while residential living standards of nearby areas can also exert an impact in this region. The influence of educational attainment on medical service efficiency exhibits a significant inhibitory effect.
    CONCLUSIONS: The majority of China\'s 31 provinces exhibit suboptimal medical service efficiency, with notable regional disparities. Future policy initiatives should be tailored to address the unique challenges faced by regions with lower levels of economic development, prioritizing enhancements in both the efficacy and quality of their healthcare systems.
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