Disaster management

灾害管理
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    研究历史时期气候变化与人类社会互动的机制可以为该地区的气候政策建设提供历史见解和文化根源。在这项研究中,我们构建了稳定性-鲁棒性-弹性模型(SSR模型),并使用TOPSIS方法(通过相似于理想解的顺序偏好技术)和熵权法来评估鲁棒性的变化过程,弹性,明朝社会在应对气候威胁方面的稳定。我们还通过使用SRR模型比较了在社会稳健性-弹性组合的不同时期发生的三种极端干旱。结果如下。(1)永乐-洪志时期(公元1402-1505年)明代社会的稳定性很高,当社会稳健性和复原力都高于明代的平均水平时(前者为0.5611,后者为0.4215),但天顺时期(公元1457-1464年)社会稳定性显著下降。在正德-崇镇时期(公元1506-1644年),明朝社会的稳定性逐渐下降,它在龙庆-万里时期(公元1506-1620年)很快反弹。(2)高度稳定得益于更高的社会经济水平,更好的政府财政水平,更大的国家粮食储备,更安全的社会环境(高鲁棒性),以及更高水平的统治阶级治理和风险应对(高复原力);而战争引发的不安全的社会环境,社会经济水平和政府财政水平的下降是社会稳定性下降的主要原因。(3)成华和万里旱情都发生在社会稳健性较高的时期,所以尽管他们的气象异常很严重,他们对社会的影响很小。而嘉靖旱灾发生在社会稳健性和韧性较低的时期,所以尽管气象异常相对较弱,它导致了比其他两个事件更严重的社会后果。
    Studying the mechanisms by which climate change interacted with human societies during the historical period can provide historical insights and cultural roots for climate policy building in the region. In this study, we constructed Stability-Robustness-Resilience Model (SSR model) and used the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and the entropy weight method to assess the change processes of robustness, resilience, and stability of Ming\'s society in response to climate threats. We have also compared three extreme droughts that occurred in different periods of social robustness-resilience combinations by using the SRR model. The results are as follows. (1) The stability of the Ming society was high in YongLe - HongZhi period (1402-1505 CE), when both social robustness and resilience were higher than the average level of Ming Dynasty (0.5611 for the former and 0.4215 for the latter), but there was a significant decline in social stability in TianShun period (1457-1464 CE). In ZhengDe - ChongZhen period (1506-1644 CE), the stability of Ming society gradually decreased, and it rebounded shortly in the LongQing-WanLi period (1506-1620 CE). (2) The high stability benefited from higher socio-economic levels, better government finance levels, larger national food reserves, safer social environments (high robustness), and higher levels of ruling class governance and risk response (high resilience); whereas insecure social environment induced by war, declining socio-economic levels and government finance levels were the main reasons for the decline in society\'s stability. (3)The ChengHua and WanLi droughts both happened at a time with high social robustness, so although their meteorological anomalies were severe, their impact on society was small. While the JiaJing drought happened at a time with low social robustness and resilience, so although the meteorological anomaly was relatively weak, it resulted in a more severe social consequence than the other two events.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    快速全面评估洪水影响对于协助应急管理人员开展有效的救援行动至关重要。随着信息技术的进步,各种类型的传感器已被广泛用于及时评估洪水影响,因为它们能够提供快速的洪水影响信息。然而,传感器驱动的方法在提供全面的影响评估方面受到限制,因为传感器通常分布稀疏。在这项研究中,作者集成了从传感器获得的稀疏洪水影响信息和洪水影响区域的空间自相关,以实现快速全面的洪水影响评估。为了达到这样的目的,提出了一种系统的方法:(1)从稀疏分布的传感器中提取洪水影响信息;(2)基于洪水演变和地理原理对洪水影响区域的空间自相关建模;(3)通过梯度下降法学习空间自相关模型的参数;(4)根据稀疏感知的影响和建模的空间自相关推断传感器未覆盖区域的洪水影响。为了说明拟议的方法,我们研究了洪水对休斯顿高速公路的影响,飓风哈维期间的德克萨斯州。结果表明,空间自相关模型在推断相邻公路街区具有相同洪水影响的概率方面具有良好的泛化能力。与纯传感器驱动的方法相比,所提出的方法能够大大扩展洪水影响评估的覆盖范围,同时保持几乎相同的准确性。
    A rapid and comprehensive assessment of flood impacts is critical to assist emergency managers in conducting effective relief operations. With advances in information technologies, various types of sensors have been widely used to assess flood impacts promptly as they are capable of providing rapid flood impact information. However, sensor-driven approaches are limited in the provision of a comprehensive impact assessment as sensors are often sparsely distributed. In this research, the authors integrate the sparse flood impact information obtained from sensors and the spatial autocorrelation of flood-impacted areas, in order to achieve a rapid and comprehensive flood impact assessment. To achieve such a purpose, a systematic approach is proposed to (1) extract flood impact information from sparsely distributed sensors; (2) model the spatial autocorrelation of flood-impacted areas based on flood evolution and geography principles; (3) learn the parameters of the spatial autocorrelation model through a gradient descent method; (4) infer the flood impacts of sensor-uncovered areas based on the sparsely sensed impacts and the modeled spatial autocorrelation. To illustrate the proposed approach, we studied flood impacts on Highways in Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey. Results show that the spatial autocorrelation model presents a decent generalization capability in inferring the probability of neighboring highway blocks having the same flood impacts. Compared to purely sensor-driven approaches, the proposed approach is capable of greatly extending the coverage of flood impact assessment while maintaining the nearly same accuracy.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:孟加拉国是由于气候变化而面临自然灾害风险的国家之一。特别是,其河流岛屿(char)的居民面临着持续的气候事件,这加剧了他们的脆弱性。这项研究旨在评估社会脆弱性,影响,以及孟加拉国沿河岛屿地区气候变化的适应战略。
    方法:将定性和定量程序结合在一起的混合方法方法用于从Gaibandha的180个河岛家庭收集的数据,孟加拉国。根据其适应能力评估了河流岛屿社区的社会脆弱性,灵敏度,和暴露在气候压力下。
    结果:研究结果表明,chardwellers\'漏洞,影响,对气候变化的适应能力因其与大陆的距离而异。地理位置等社会脆弱性因素,脆弱和低等级的住房条件,文盲和流离失所,对气候敏感的职业和低收入水平,等等,导致这些特定区域的高度脆弱性水平。这项研究还表明,气候变化及其相关危害对几乎所有家庭都造成了严重的生活和生计问题。在这种情况下,河流居民采用了几种适应策略来改善他们的生活方式,以应对气候变化带来的灾难。然而,教育设施低,缺乏有关气候变化的有用信息,基础设施差,资金短缺仍然是适应可持续性的最大障碍。
    结论:研究结果强调了评估当地地区对气候变化的敏感性的重要性,并强调需要有针对性的地方举措和政策,以减少居住在char家庭中的社区的脆弱性并增强适应性。
    Bangladesh is one of the countries at risk of natural disasters due to climate change. In particular, inhabitants of its riverine islands (char) confront ongoing climatic events that heighten their vulnerability. This study aims to assess social vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation strategies to climate change in the riverine island areas of Bangladesh.
    A mixed-method approach incorporating qualitative and quantitative procedures was used on data collected from 180 households of riverine islands in Gaibandha, Bangladesh. The social vulnerability of riverine island communities was assessed based on their adaptation capacity, sensitivity, and exposure to climatic stressors.
    The findings show that char dwellers\' vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation capability to climate change vary significantly depending on their proximity to the mainland. Social vulnerability factors such as geographical location, fragile and low-grade housing conditions, illiteracy and displacement, climate-sensitive occupation and low-income level, and so on caused to the in-height vulnerability level of these particular areas. This study also displays that climate change and its associated hazards cause severe life and livelihood concerns for almost all households. In this case, the riverine dwellers employed several adaptation strategies to enhance their way of life to the disaster brought on changing climate. However, low education facilities, deficiency of useful information on climate change, poor infrastructure, and shortage of money are still the supreme hindrance to the sustainability of adaptation.
    The findings underscore the importance of evaluating the susceptibility of local areas to climate change and emphasize the need for tailored local initiatives and policies to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptability in communities residing in char households.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文旨在把握信息传播研究的发展和趋势,2000-2021年灾害中的信息寻找和信息共享。通过使用文献计量学软件CiteSpace和VOSviewer,出版物的发展趋势,纪律,期刊,机构和区域合作被映射。关键词共现分析用于进一步识别研究热点的演变,可视化研究方向和前沿。结果表明,灾害信息传播领域日益受到各学科的关注。机构和区域合作的结果表明,全球合作仍然缺乏,需要在该领域的未来研究中加强。主要发现是该领域基于关键词共现的五个主要研究方向,这是公共信息协调研究,公共信息行为和感知研究,健康信息传播研究,应急管理中的风险沟通和社交媒体研究以及信息技术。本文的研究结果可以帮助学者和应急管理人员全面了解人们的信息沟通,寻求和分享。
    This paper aims to grasp developments and trends in research on information communication, information seeking and information sharing in disasters during 2000-2021. By using bibliometrics software CiteSpace and VOSviewer, the development trends of publications, disciplinary, journals, institutions and regional cooperation are mapped. Keyword co-occurrence analysis is used to further identify the evolution of the research hot points and visualize the research orientation and frontier. The results indicate that the field of information communication in disasters has received growing attention from various disciplines. Results of institutions and regional cooperation show that worldwide cooperation is still lacking and needs to be strengthened in future studies in this field. The key findings are five main research orientations in this field based on keyword co-occurrence, which are public information coordination research, public information behavior and perception research, health information communication research, risk communication and social media research and information technology in emergency management. The findings of this paper can be helpful for academics and emergency managers in disaster information management and risk communication by giving them a comprehensive understanding of people\'s information communication, seeking and sharing.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于2020年的COVID-19(2019年冠状病毒病),全球旅游业已经遭受了巨大损失。危机管理,包括灾害管理和风险管理,已经成为酒店和旅游业组织的热门话题。本研究旨在调查酒店和旅游业背景下的相关研究领域。要了解行业如何采用危机管理实践,作者回顾了512篇文章,包括79篇关于COVID-19的论文,历时36年,从1985年到2020年。研究结果表明,危机管理的研究重点,危机影响和复苏,以及风险管理,风险感知和灾害管理主导了主流危机管理研究。回顾过去的十年(2010年至今),与健康相关的危机(包括COVID-19),社交媒体,政治动荡和恐怖主义主题是最大的趋势。本文为酒店和旅游业的危机管理的未来研究议程提出了一个新的概念框架。此外,在TCM(理论-背景-方法)模型中还提出了十个可能的进一步研究领域:危机预防和准备理论,风险沟通,危机管理教育和培训,风险评估,以及COVID-19背景下的危机事件,酒店和旅游业的数据隐私,与政治有关的危机事件,数字媒体,以及替代的分析方法和方法。此外,本文还提出了这些未来研究领域的具体研究问题。
    The global tourism industry has already suffered an enormous loss due to COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) in 2020. Crisis management, including disaster management and risk management, has been becoming a hot topic for organisations in the hospitality and tourism industry. This study aims to investigate relevant research domains in the hospitality and tourism industry context. To understand how crisis management practices have been adopted in the industry, the authors reviewed 512 articles including 79 papers on COVID-19, spanning 36 years, between 1985 and 2020. The findings showed that the research focus of crisis management, crisis impact and recovery, as well as risk management, risk perception and disaster management dominated mainstream crisis management research. Look back the past decade (2010 to present), health-related crisis (including COVID-19), social media, political disturbances and terrorism themes are the biggest trends. This paper proposed a new conceptual framework for future research agenda of crisis management in the hospitality and tourism industry. Besides, ten possible further research areas were also suggested in a TCM (theory-context-method) model: the theories of crisis prevention and preparedness, risk communication, crisis management education and training, risk assessment, and crisis events in the contexts of COVID-19, data privacy in hospitality and tourism, political-related crisis events, digital media, and alternative analytical methods and approaches. In addition, specific research questions in these future research areas were also presented in this paper.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    复合灾害的复杂性和不确定性凸显了地方应急能力的重要性。本文提出了一个框架,包括基于实数编码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型和Moran指数(Moran'sI),测量当地的应急能力并分析其空间分布。以湖北省为例进行了实证检验,中国。结果表明:(1)与基础设施相关的计量指标,物资储备,资源分配具有更大的权重,而与人员及其实践有关的人员的权重较小。(2)湖北省副省级地区地方应急韧性的测算值在东部地区至关重要,在西部地区较弱,具有明显的东西分割和南北聚集特征。(3)副省级区域虽然没有表现出显著的空间相关性,以武汉为中心的东部地区呈负相关,与西部地区呈正相关。此外,本研究为当地应急韧性评价和空间相关性探索提供了理论和方法,对优化地方应急管理资源配置、提高地方应急应变能力有具体的指导性建议。
    The complexity and uncertainty of compound disasters highlight the significance of local emergency resilience. This paper puts forward a framework, including the Projection Pursuit Model based on Real-coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm and the Moran\'s Index (Moran\'s I), to measure the local emergency resilience and analyze its spatial distribution. An empirical test is conducted with the case of Hubei Province, China. The results show that: (1) the measurement indices related to infrastructure, material reserves, and resource allocation have a larger weight, while those related to personnel and their practice have a smaller weight. (2) The measurement value of local emergency resilience of sub-provincial regions in Hubei Province is vital in the eastern and weak in the western, and there are apparent east-west segmentation and north-south aggregation characteristics. (3) Although the sub-provincial regions do not show significant spatial correlation, the eastern regions centered on Wuhan are negatively correlated, and the western regions are positively correlated. Furthermore, this study provides theories and methods for local emergency resilience evaluation and spatial correlation exploration, and it has specific guidance recommendations for optimizing local emergency management resource allocation and improving local emergency resilience.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:尽管药剂师参与的重要性已得到广泛认可,但很少注意描述药剂师在灾难中的作用。目标:我们将通过文献中的大量报道来回顾药剂师在灾难中的广泛角色及其应对措施。方法:使用定量内容分析技术从文献中收集有关药剂师的角色及其在灾难中的反应的单词和短语组成的数据。结果:根据标题和摘要,共审查和筛选了106份报告。其中,只有20项研究被确定为符合讨论资格标准.共有7次自然灾害(大流行,龙卷风,火灾,地震,洪水,飓风和风暴)在文献中发现。角色使用Setlak分类方案进行分类,其中包括药品供应等描述符,患者管理,政策协调,和反应整合。药品供应仍然是药剂师的首选角色。结论:从文献中可以明显看出,药剂师在灾难期间处于独特的位置,可以提供医疗保健连续性和药物治疗。
    Background: Little attention has been given to characterizing the roles of pharmacists in disasters even though the importance of pharmacists\' involvement is widely acknowledged. Objective: We amid to review a broad range of pharmacists roles in disasters and their response by numerous reports in the literature. Method: A quantitative content analysis technique was used to gather data consisting of words and phrases from literature regarding pharmacists\' roles and their response in disasters. Results: A total of 106 reports were reviewed and screened based on titles and abstracts. Of these, only 20 studies were determined to meet the eligibility criteria for discussion. A total of 7 natural disasters (pandemics, tornadoes, fires, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and storms) were found in the literature. Roles were classified using the Setlak classification scheme, which includes descriptors such as pharmaceutical supply, patient management, policy coordination, and response integration. Pharmaceutical supply was remains the pharmacists\' preferred role. Conclusion: It is evident from the literature that pharmacists are uniquely positioned during disasters to provide healthcare continuity and medication.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的分析我国最近三次大地震中受伤患者的损伤特点及治疗策略,从而为地震应急预案的完善提供参考。分析基于绵阳市中心医院(MCH)5月12日提供的数据,2008年9月26日,2017.采用微软EXCEL软件进行数据输入,采用SPSS进行统计分析。共有1,390名与地震有关的患者在MCH住院。大多数患者在地震后的前两周内入院。地震伤害的主要原因包括物体撞击/撞击或建筑物倒塌/掩埋。四肢骨折占大多数损伤,尤其是地震后3天。但软组织损伤不容忽视。大多数地震患者主要通过手术治疗,大多数与骨科有关。我们发现不同的领域,人口,宗教需要一种量身定制的救援方法。因此,震级尺度对机制有重大影响,地震中受伤的患者的类型和严重程度,以及他们的及时转移,管理,和预后。创伤性损伤是非常常见的,因此各种外科手术尤其是骨科和神经外科是治疗模式的领域。灾难准备和联合手术团队的努力需要集中在降低死亡率和发病率。
    The purpose of this study was to analyze the injury characteristics of patients and therapeutic strategies for patients injured in the last three big earthquakes in China, so as to provide a reference for the improvement of emergency plans for earthquakes. The analysis was based on the data provided by the Mianyang Central Hospital (MCH) from May 12th, 2008 to September 26th, 2017. Microsoft EXCEL software was used for data input, and SPSS was used for statistical analysis. A total of 1,390 earthquake-related patients were hospitalized in MCH. Most patients were admitted to the hospital within the first 2 weeks after the earthquake. The main causes for seismic injuries involved hit/strike by objects or building collapse /burying. Extremity fractures accounted for most injuries, especially 3 days after an earthquake. But soft tissue injuries cannot be neglected. Most earthquake patients were mainly treated by means of surgery and the majority were related to orthopedics. We found that different areas, population, and religions needed a tailored approach to the rescue effort. Therefore, the earthquake magnitude scale has a significant influence on mechanisms, types and severity of the injury of patients injured in earthquakes, as well as their timely transfer, management, and prognosis. Traumatic injuries are very common and thereby various surgical procedures especially orthopedic and neurosurgery are the domain of treatment modalities. Disaster preparedness and combined surgical team effort need to be focused on to reduce both mortality and morbidity.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在当今世界,公司遇到了许多可能危及业务连续性的挑战。最近,冠状病毒给供应链网络带来了一些问题。值得注意的是,易腐产品供应链网络,如制药,乳制品,血,食品供应链处理更复杂的情况。一般来说,在大流行爆发期间,这些行业的活动可以在社会中发挥重要作用。一方面,这些行业的产品被认为是生活必需品。然而,另一方面,有许多新的限制来控制冠状病毒的流行,例如关闭所有官方聚会并减少工作时间,从而影响经济增长和国内生产总值。因此,风险评估可以成为预防冠状病毒爆发对供应链网络的副作用的有用工具。为了这个目标,决策试验和评估实验室方法用于评估冠状病毒爆发期间易腐产品供应链网络的风险.收到了学术界的反馈,以确定最重要的风险。然后,制药专家,食物,和乳制品行业被要求具体说明风险之间的相互关系。然后,毕达哥拉斯模糊集是为了考虑专家判断的不确定性。最后,分析表明,产品的易腐性,不健康的工作条件,供给侧风险,和工作时间是很有影响力的风险,很容易影响其他风险因素。另外,事实证明,竞争风险是效应类别中最敏感的风险。换句话说,在冠状病毒爆发时代,易腐产品供应链网络之间的竞争变得更加激烈。这项研究的实际结果为管理人员和决策者提供了广泛的见解,以防止冠状病毒爆发期间易腐产品供应链网络的风险。
    In nowadays world, firms are encountered with many challenges that can jeopardize business continuity. Recently, the coronavirus has brought some problems for supply chain networks. Remarkably, perishable product supply chain networks, such as pharmaceutical, dairy, blood, and food supply chains deal with more sophisticated situations. Generally, during pandemic outbreaks, the activities of these industries can play an influential role in society. On the one hand, products of these industries are considered to be daily necessities for living. However, on the other hand, there are many new restrictions to control the coronavirus prevalence, such as closing down all official gatherings and lessening the work hours, which subsequently affect the economic growth and gross domestic product. Therefore, risk assessment can be a useful tool to forestall side-effects of the coronavirus outbreaks on supply chain networks. To that aim, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory approach is used to evaluate the risks to perishable product supply chain networks during the coronavirus outbreak era. Feedback from academics was received to identify the most important risks. Then, experts in pharmaceutical, food, and dairy industries were inquired to specify the interrelations among risks. Then, Pythagorean fuzzy sets are employed in order to take the uncertainty of the experts\' judgments into account. Finally, analyses demonstrated that the perishability of products, unhealthy working conditions, supply-side risks, and work-hours are highly influential risks that can easily affect other risk factors. Plus, it turned out that competitive risks are the most susceptive risk in the effect category. In other words, competition among perishable product supply chain networks has become even more fierce during the coronavirus outbreak era. The practical outcomes of this study provide a wide range of insights for managers and decision-makers in order to prevent risks to perishable product supply chain networks during the coronavirus outbreak era.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自从COVID-19大流行开始以来,伴随着世界经历了许多水文气象灾害。大流行使人道主义组织和政府的救灾工作更具挑战性。本研究旨在概述各国关注的主题/问题,同时应对水文气象极端事件(例如,洪水和旋风)在大流行期间。潜在狄利克雷分配(LDA),一种计算主题建模技术,用于减少数量(即,1771)人道主义报告/新闻,涉及24个国家的关键术语和有意义的主题。从LDA结果中得出了一些见解。据确定,各国遭受了多次危机(如蝗虫袭击,流行病和冲突)在大流行期间。在灾难疏散和规避救援工作封锁的同时保持社会距离是困难的。对于大多数国家来说,儿童是一个重要的话题;妇女和残疾人等其他弱势群体也需要重点关注。卫生不是一个高度关注的话题,这在大流行期间令人担忧,大流行要求良好的卫生条件来有效控制它。然而,健康对几乎所有国家都非常重要。本文的新颖之处在于其跨学科方法(在灾害管理研究中使用计算技术)以及在持续的大流行期间及时检查灾害管理经验。研究中提出的见解可能有助于研究人员和决策者开展进一步的自下而上的工作,以应对大流行期间应对水文气象灾害的挑战。
    Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has experienced numerous hydrometeorological disasters along with it. The pandemic has made disaster relief work more challenging for humanitarian organizations and governments. This study aims to provide an overview of the topics/issues of concern in the countries while responding to hydrometeorological extreme events (e.g., floods and cyclones) during the pandemic. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a computational topic modeling technique, is employed to reduce the numerous (i.e., 1771) humanitarian reports/news to key terms and meaningful topics for 24 countries. Several insights are derived from the LDA results. It is identified that countries have suffered multiple crises (such as locust attacks, epidemics and conflicts) during the pandemic. Maintaining social distancing while disaster evacuation and circumventing the lockdown for relief work have been difficult. Children are an important topic for most countries; however, other vulnerable groups such as women and the disabled also need to be focused upon. Hygiene is not a highly weighted topic, which is of concern during a pandemic that mandates good sanitation to control it effectively. However, health is of great importance for almost all countries. The novelty of the paper lies in its interdisciplinary approach (usage of a computational technique in disaster management studies) and the timely examination of disaster management experiences during the ongoing pandemic. The insights presented in the study may be helpful for researchers and policy-makers to initiate further bottom-up work to address the challenges in responding to hydrometeorological disasters during a pandemic.
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