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Abstract：
Studying the mechanisms by which climate change interacted with human societies during the historical period can provide historical insights and cultural roots for climate policy building in the region. In this study, we constructed Stability-Robustness-Resilience Model (SSR model) and used the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and the entropy weight method to assess the change processes of robustness, resilience, and stability of Ming\'s society in response to climate threats. We have also compared three extreme droughts that occurred in different periods of social robustness-resilience combinations by using the SRR model. The results are as follows. (1) The stability of the Ming society was high in YongLe - HongZhi period (1402-1505 CE), when both social robustness and resilience were higher than the average level of Ming Dynasty (0.5611 for the former and 0.4215 for the latter), but there was a significant decline in social stability in TianShun period (1457-1464 CE). In ZhengDe - ChongZhen period (1506-1644 CE), the stability of Ming society gradually decreased, and it rebounded shortly in the LongQing-WanLi period (1506-1620 CE). (2) The high stability benefited from higher socio-economic levels, better government finance levels, larger national food reserves, safer social environments (high robustness), and higher levels of ruling class governance and risk response (high resilience); whereas insecure social environment induced by war, declining socio-economic levels and government finance levels were the main reasons for the decline in society\'s stability. (3)The ChengHua and WanLi droughts both happened at a time with high social robustness, so although their meteorological anomalies were severe, their impact on society was small. While the JiaJing drought happened at a time with low social robustness and resilience, so although the meteorological anomaly was relatively weak, it resulted in a more severe social consequence than the other two events.
摘要：
研究历史时期气候变化与人类社会互动的机制可以为该地区的气候政策建设提供历史见解和文化根源。在这项研究中,我们构建了稳定性-鲁棒性-弹性模型（SSR模型），并使用TOPSIS方法（通过相似于理想解的顺序偏好技术）和熵权法来评估鲁棒性的变化过程，弹性，明朝社会在应对气候威胁方面的稳定。我们还通过使用SRR模型比较了在社会稳健性-弹性组合的不同时期发生的三种极端干旱。结果如下。（1）永乐-洪志时期（公元1402-1505年）明代社会的稳定性很高，当社会稳健性和复原力都高于明代的平均水平时(前者为0.5611，后者为0.4215)，但天顺时期(公元1457-1464年)社会稳定性显著下降。在正德-崇镇时期（公元1506-1644年），明朝社会的稳定性逐渐下降，它在龙庆-万里时期(公元1506-1620年)很快反弹。(2)高度稳定得益于更高的社会经济水平,更好的政府财政水平，更大的国家粮食储备，更安全的社会环境(高鲁棒性)，以及更高水平的统治阶级治理和风险应对(高复原力)；而战争引发的不安全的社会环境，社会经济水平和政府财政水平的下降是社会稳定性下降的主要原因。(3)成华和万里旱情都发生在社会稳健性较高的时期,所以尽管他们的气象异常很严重，他们对社会的影响很小。而嘉靖旱灾发生在社会稳健性和韧性较低的时期，所以尽管气象异常相对较弱，它导致了比其他两个事件更严重的社会后果。
