■根据对非洲国家COVID-19病例低估的研究,在爆发初期,很少或没有控制措施时,平均每日病例报告率仅为5.37%。在这项工作中,我们旨在确定病例报告的决定因素,并使用病例报告率和重要决定因素对非洲国家进行分类.
■我们使用上一篇论文中估计的54个非洲国家的COVID-19每日病例报告率作为应对变量,并使用人口统计学中的34个变量,社会经济,宗教,教育,和公共卫生类别作为预测指标。我们采用了广义加性模型,该模型具有连续预测因子的三次样条和分类预测因子的线性关系,以识别重要的协变量。此外,我们对所有国家的报告率和显著的连续协变量进行了主成分层次聚类(HCPC)分析.
■确定了21个协变量与COVID-19病例检测显着相关:总人口,城市人口,中位年龄,预期寿命,GDP,民主指数,腐败,语音问责,社交媒体,互联网过滤,航空运输,人类发展指数,识字,伊斯兰教人口,医生的数量,护士人数,全球卫生安全,疟疾发病率,糖尿病发病率,降低呼吸系统和心血管疾病的患病率。HCPC导致了54个非洲国家的三个主要集群:北部,南部和中部基本上,北方有最好的早期病例检测,其次是南部和中部。
■总的来说,与中部相比,北部和南部非洲的早期COVID-19病例识别更好。有一些人口统计,社会经济,与早期病例发现显着相关的公共卫生因素。
UNASSIGNED: According to study on the under-estimation of COVID-19 cases in African countries, the average daily
case reporting rate was only 5.37% in the initial phase of the outbreak when there was little or no control measures. In this work, we aimed to identify the determinants of the
case reporting and classify the African countries using the
case reporting rates and the significant determinants.
UNASSIGNED: We used the COVID-19 daily
case reporting rate estimated in the previous paper for 54 African countries as the response variable and 34 variables from demographics, socioeconomic, religion, education, and public health categories as the predictors. We adopted a generalized additive model with cubic spline for continuous predictors and linear relationship for categorical predictors to identify the significant covariates. In addition, we performed Hierarchical Clustering on Principal Components (HCPC) analysis on the reporting rates and significant continuous covariates of all countries.
UNASSIGNED: 21 covariates were identified as significantly associated with COVID-19 case detection: total population, urban population, median age, life expectancy, GDP, democracy index, corruption, voice accountability, social media, internet filtering, air transport, human development index, literacy, Islam population, number of physicians, number of nurses, global health security, malaria incidence, diabetes incidence, lower respiratory and cardiovascular diseases prevalence. HCPC resulted in three major clusters for the 54 African countries: northern, southern and central essentially, with the northern having the best early case detection, followed by the southern and the central.
UNASSIGNED: Overall, northern and southern Africa had better early COVID-19
case identification compared to the central. There are a number of demographics, socioeconomic, public health factors that exhibited significant association with the early case detection.