生物多样性保护面临方法论难题:生物多样性测量通常依赖于物种,其中大多数在各种尺度上都很罕见,特别是在全球变化下容易灭绝,但也是最具挑战性的样本和模型。使用常规物种分布模型预测稀有物种的分布变化具有挑战性,因为大多数调查系统几乎无法捕获稀有物种。当足够的数据可用时,预测通常在空间上偏向于物种最有可能出现的位置,违反了许多建模框架的假设。预测和最终绘制稀有物种分布的工作流程意味着数据量之间的重要权衡,质量,在调查和分析之前需要考虑的代表性和模型复杂性。我们的观点是,研究设计需要仔细整合不同的步骤,从物种取样到建模,根据不同类型的稀有和可用数据,以提高我们对稀有物种分布进行合理评估和预测的能力。在这篇文章中,我们总结并评论了不同类别的物种稀有性如何根据调查过程中做出的选择导致不同类型的发生和分布数据,即样本的空间分布(在哪里取样)和每个选定位置的取样协议(如何取样)。然后,我们根据不同类型的分布数据(如何建模)来阐明哪些物种分布模型是合适的。其中,对于大多数稀有形式,我们重点介绍了系统的以物种为目标的抽样以及分层模型的见解,这些模型可以纠正过度分散以及空间和抽样偏差的来源。我们的文章为科学家和从业者提供了一个急需的指南,通过不断增加的方法发展的多样性,根据稀有类型和可用数据改善稀有物种分布的预测。
Biodiversity conservation faces a methodological conundrum: Biodiversity measurement often relies on species, most of which are rare at various scales, especially prone to extinction under global change, but also the most challenging to sample and model. Predicting the distribution change of rare species using conventional species distribution models is challenging because rare species are hardly captured by most survey systems. When enough data are available, predictions are usually spatially biased towards locations where the species is most likely to occur, violating the assumptions of many modelling frameworks. Workflows to predict and eventually map rare species distributions imply important trade-offs between data quantity, quality, representativeness and model complexity that need to be considered prior to survey and analysis. Our opinion is that study designs need to carefully integrate the different steps, from species
sampling to modelling, in accordance with the different types of rarity and available data in order to improve our capacity for sound assessment and prediction of rare species distribution. In this article, we summarize and comment on how different categories of species rarity lead to different types of occurrence and distribution data depending on choices made during the survey process, namely the spatial distribution of samples (where to sample) and the
sampling protocol in each selected location (how to sample). We then clarify which species distribution models are suitable depending on the different types of distribution data (how to model). Among others, for most rarity forms, we highlight the insights from systematic species-targeted
sampling coupled with hierarchical models that allow correcting for overdispersion and spatial and
sampling sources of bias. Our article provides scientists and practitioners with a much-needed guide through the ever-increasing diversity of methodological developments to improve the prediction of rare species distribution depending on rarity type and available data.