Detecting dispersal pathways is important both for understanding species range expansion and for managing nuisance species. However, direct detection is difficult. Here, we propose detecting these crucial pathways using a virtual ecology approach, simulating species dynamics using models, and virtual observations. As a case study, we developed a dispersal model based on cellular automata for the pest insect Stenotus rubrovittatus and simulated its expansion. We tested models for species expansion based on four landscape parameters as candidate pathways; these are river density, road density, area of paddy fields, and area of abandoned farmland, and validated their accuracy. We found that both road density and abandoned area models had prediction accuracy. The simulation requires simple data only to have predictive power, allowing for fast modeling and swift establishment of management plans.

Gradients of variation--or clines--have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by-product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.