BACKGROUND: Early identification of children and families who may benefit from support is crucial for implementing strategies that can prevent the onset of child maltreatment. Predictive risk modeling (PRM) may offer valuable and efficient enhancements to existing risk assessment techniques.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the PRM\'s effectiveness against the existing assessment tool in identifying children and families needing home visiting services.
METHODS: Children born in hospitals affiliated with the Bridges Maternal Child Health Network in Orange County, California, from 2011 to 2016 (N = 132,216).
METHODS: We developed a PRM tool by integrating a machine learning algorithm with a linked dataset of birth records and child protection system (CPS) records. To align with the existing assessment tool (baseline model), we limited the predicting features to the information used by the existing tool. The need for home visiting services was measured by substantiated maltreatment allegation reported during the first three years of the child\'s life.
RESULTS: Of the children born in Bridges Network hospitals between 2011 and 2016, 2.7 % experienced substantiated maltreatment allegations by the age of three. Within the top 30 % of children with high-risk scores, the PRM tool outperformed the baseline model, accurately identifying 75.3 %-84.1 % of all children who would experience maltreatment substantiation, surpassing the baseline model\'s performance of 46.2 %.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study underscores the potential of PRM in enhancing the risk assessment tool used by a prevention program in a child welfare center in California. The findings provide valuable insights to practitioners interested in utilizing data for PRM development, highlighting the potential of machine learning algorithms to generate accurate predictions and inform targeted preventive services.

Early childhood home visiting is a preventive service delivery strategy that aims to promote child and parent health, positive parenting, child development and school readiness, and family economic self-sufficiency. To meet families\' needs, programs provide a combination of direct services, and referrals and linkages to community-based services. Service coordination is therefore a critical component of home visiting\'s role within the early childhood system of care. This multiple-case study describes facilitators and barriers to service coordination, as identified by home visiting program staff and families. We interviewed program managers, supervisors, home visitors, and families from four local home visiting programs in the eastern USA with diverse contextual characteristics that showed evidence of having strong coordination. Using multiple-case study methodology, we analyzed the data to understand key facilitators and barriers to service coordination for each case and identify and describe common themes across cases. Facilitators included interagency relationships and collaboration; a culture of teamwork; dedicated, well-connected staff; supervision; trusting relationships with families; and warm handoffs. Barriers to service coordination were limited availability and accessibility of local resources, perceived stigma among other service providers, and families\' ambivalence toward some services. Home visiting staff and families emphasized that relationships at multiple levels are fundamental to service coordination, barriers are complex, and coordination is time- and labor-intensive. Coalitions that bring together diverse stakeholder groups at the state and local levels can provide meaningful coordination support to the early childhood services.

Recently, the World Health Organization established the Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group to identify and prioritize diagnostic needs for neglected tropical diseases, and to ultimately describe the minimal and ideal characteristics for new diagnostic tests (the so-called target product profiles (TPPs)). We developed two generic frameworks: one to explore and determine the required sensitivity (probability to correctly detect diseased persons) and specificity (probability to correctly detect persons free of disease), and another one to determine the corresponding samples sizes and the decision rules based on a multi-category lot quality assurance sampling (MC-LQAS) approach that accounts for imperfect tests. We applied both frameworks for monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs. Our study indicates that specificity rather than sensitivity will become more important when the program approaches the endgame of elimination and that the requirements for both parameters are inversely correlated, resulting in multiple combinations of sensitivity and specificity that allow for reliable decision making. The MC-LQAS framework highlighted that improving diagnostic performance results in a smaller sample size for the same level of program decision making. In other words, the additional costs per diagnostic tests with improved diagnostic performance may be compensated by lower operational costs in the field. Based on our results we proposed the required minimal and ideal diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for diagnostic tests applied in monitoring and evaluating of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs.

Among people living with HIV (PLHIV), more flexible and sensitive tuberculosis (TB) screening tools capable of detecting both symptomatic and subclinical active TB are needed to (1) reduce morbidity and mortality from undiagnosed TB; (2) facilitate scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) while reducing inappropriate prescription of TPT to PLHIV with subclinical active TB; and (3) allow for differentiated HIV-TB care.
We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult HIV clinic enrollees collected during 2012 to 2015 to develop a parsimonious multivariable prognostic model for active prevalent TB using both logistic regression and random forest machine learning approaches. A clinical score was derived by rescaling final model coefficients. The clinical score was developed using southern Botswana XPRES data and its accuracy validated internally, using northern Botswana data, and externally using 3 diverse cohorts of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced PLHIV enrolled in XPHACTOR, TB Fast Track (TBFT), and Gugulethu studies from South Africa (SA). Predictive accuracy of the clinical score was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 4-symptom TB screen. Among 5,418 XPRES enrollees, 2,771 were included in the derivation dataset; 67% were female, median age was 34 years, median CD4 was 240 cells/μL, 189 (7%) had undiagnosed prevalent TB, and characteristics were similar between internal derivation and validation datasets. Among XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, median CD4 was 400, 73, and 167 cells/μL, and prevalence of TB was 5%, 10%, and 18%, respectively. Factors predictive of TB in the derivation dataset and selected for the clinical score included male sex (1 point), ≥1 WHO TB symptom (7 points), smoking history (1 point), temperature >37.5°C (6 points), body mass index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (2 points), and severe anemia (hemoglobin <8g/dL) (3 points). Sensitivity using WHO 4-symptom TB screen was 73%, 80%, 94%, and 94% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, but increased to 88%, 87%, 97%, and 97%, when a clinical score of ≥2 was used. Negative predictive value (NPV) also increased 1%, 0.3%, 1.6%, and 1.7% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, when the clinical score of ≥2 replaced WHO 4-symptom TB screen. Categorizing risk scores into low (<2), moderate (2 to 10), and high-risk categories (>10) yielded TB prevalence of 1%, 1%, 2%, and 6% in the lowest risk group and 33%, 22%, 26%, and 32% in the highest risk group for XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively. At clinical score ≥2, the number needed to screen (NNS) ranged from 5.0 in Gugulethu to 11.0 in XPHACTOR. Limitations include that the risk score has not been validated in resource-rich settings and needs further evaluation and validation in contemporary cohorts in Africa and other resource-constrained settings.
The simple and feasible clinical score allowed for prioritization of sensitivity and NPV, which could facilitate reductions in mortality from undiagnosed TB and safer administration of TPT during proposed global scale-up efforts. Differentiation of risk by clinical score cutoff allows flexibility in designing differentiated HIV-TB care to maximize impact of available resources.

This paper assesses whether providing people with information on the public benefits of bed net use, and on other people\'s bed net use, changes their bed net use behavior. I use a survey experiment from rural Kenya, where randomly selected households are provided with information on the public benefits generated by bed net use, and on the consequences of an individual\'s own bed net use on the health of the immediate neighbor. The results show that information increased willingness to use bed nets, and that people are more willing to use bed nets when they know other people are using them as well. Results are robust to the inclusion of a broad set of controls, including risk aversion; number of household members to have suffered from malaria in the past 12 months; and number of children in the household who are below five years age. Overall, these results suggest that in addition to free distribution of bed nets, informing people on the private and public benefits of bed net use could potentially save many more lives.

The objective was to evaluate whether including pregnant women in a preventive dental program prevented the appearance of caries in their children up to the age of 6, and whether the effect was similar in children of immigrant and non-immigrant women. In phase I, 90 pregnant women, 45 immigrants and 45 natives, were taught about the development and prevention of caries. In phase II the oral health of their children at the age of 6 (n = 90) was evaluated, along with a control group of children of natives and immigrants of the same age (n = 90). A survey was used to determine participants\' backgrounds and habits. A multivariate study of the results was performed using R-core software. The number of children without caries was 128 (71.1%), whereas 52 (28.9%) had caries, 15 from the protocol (16.67%) and 37 from the control group (41.11%), with statistically significant differences (p < 0.001). The mean number of caries for the children in the protocol was 0.62 ± 2 and in the control group it was 1.88 ± 2.9 (p = 0.001). In the multivariate analysis the risk of developing caries was higher for the condition of being the child of an immigrant (OR = 11.137), inadequate oral health (OR = 4.993), the children being overweight at the age of 6 (OR = 10.680), and the consumption of candies (OR = 5.042). In conclusion, the preventive protocols started during pregnancy reduced caries in participants\' children, which suggests that these protocols should be encouraged. Because immigrant children are more vulnerable to caries, they and their parents should be included in preventive programs once they arrive in the host country.

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Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a biomedical HIV prevention modality that is up to 99% effective in preventing HIV acquisition through sex if taken as directed. People with serious mental illness (eg, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) are at high risk of acquiring HIV due to sexual behaviours, injection drug use, social factors, and structural discrimination that limits access to all types of preventive health services. We seek to show the importance of prioritising access to PrEP for people living with serious mental illness treated in community mental health settings. We describe barriers to prescribing PrEP, including provider attitudes and provider knowledge gaps, patient attitudes and knowledge, and systems issues. We also address the concerns that community mental health clinic administrators might have about taking on the responsibility of offering PrEP. In summary, despite the barriers to prescribing PrEP in these settings, we believe that there is a unique opportunity for community mental health settings to help address the HIV epidemic by facilitating the prescribing of PrEP to the at-risk populations they currently serve.

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SARS-CoV-2 has disproportionately affected nursing homes (NH). In Ireland, the first NH case COVID-19 occurred on 16 March 2020. A national point-prevalence testing programme of all NH residents and staff took place (18 April 2020 to 5 May 2020).
to examine characteristics of NHs across three Irish Community Health Organisations, proportions with COVID-19 outbreaks, staff and resident infection rates symptom profile and resident case fatality.
in total, 45 NHs surveyed, requesting details on occupancy, size, COVID-19 outbreak, outbreak timing, total symptomatic/asymptomatic cases and outcomes for residents from 29 February 2020 to 22 May 2020.
surveys were returned from 62.2% (28/45) of NHs (2,043 residents, 2,303 beds). Three-quarters (21/28) had COVID-19 outbreaks (1,741 residents, 1,972 beds). Median time from first COVID-19 case in Ireland to first case in these NHs was 27.0 days. Resident incidence was 43.9% (764/1,741)-40.8% (710/1,741) laboratory confirmed, with 27.2% (193/710) asymptomatic and 3.1% (54/1,741) clinically suspected. Resident case fatality was 27.6% (211/764) for combined laboratory-confirmed/clinically suspected COVID-19. Similar proportions of residents in NHs with \'early-stage\' (<28 days) versus \'later-stage\' outbreaks developed COVID-19. Lower proportions of residents in \'early\' outbreak NHs had recovered compared with those with \'late\' outbreaks (37.4 versus 61.7%; χ2 = 56.9, P < 0.001). Of 395 NH staff across 12 sites with confirmed COVID-19, 24.7% (99/398) were asymptomatic. There was a significant correlation between the proportion of staff with symptomatic COVID-19 and resident numbers with confirmed/suspected COVID-19 (Spearman\'s rho = 0.81, P < 0.001).
this study demonstrates the significant impact of COVID-19 on the NH sector. Systematic point-prevalence testing is necessary to reduce risk of transmission from asymptomatic carriers and manage outbreaks in this setting.