2020年,巴西报告了近20万人死于COVID-19。一种新的传染病的病死率可能因不同的危险因素和时间而异。我们分析了第一波大流行期间巴西公立医院住院患者COVID-19病例死亡率的趋势和相关因素。
从可用的报销记录中,对巴西公共卫生系统(SUS)在第10-40周之间的所有与COVID-19相关的入院进行了回顾性队列研究。进行平滑时间序列和生存分析,以根据性别等因素评估医院病死率(CFR)和死亡概率的趋势,年龄,种族,合并症,住院时间和ICU使用时间。
398,063人入院,86,452人(21.7%)死亡,整个时期的总体年龄标准化医院CFR趋势下降,从第10周的31.8%(95CI:31.2至32.5%)到第40周的18.2%(95CI:17.6至18.8%)。在所有性别中都观察到这种下降趋势,年龄,种族群体,住院时间和ICU入院时间。始终如一,后入院(7月至9月)为独立保护因素.80岁以上患者的风险比为8.18(95%CI:7.51至8.91)。种族,合并症,和ICU需求也与死亡风险相关。虽然也在减少,在需要入住ICU的患者中,CFR总是在40-50%左右.
在2020年第一波大流行期间,巴西公立医院的COVID-19整体医院CFR有所下降。然而,在整个期间,CFR仍然很高,这表明有必要改善巴西的COVID-19医院护理。
Almost 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 were reported in Brazil in 2020. The
case fatality rate of a new infectious disease can vary by different risk factors and over time. We analysed the trends and associated factors of COVID-19
case fatality rates in Brazilian public hospital admissions during the first wave of the pandemic.
A retrospective cohort of all COVID-19-related admissions between epidemiological weeks 10-40 in the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) was delimited from available reimbursement records. Smoothing time series and survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the trends of hospital
case fatality rates (CFR) and the probability of death according to factors such as sex, age, ethnicity, comorbidities, length of stay and ICU use.
With 398,063 admissions and 86,452 (21.7%) deaths, the overall age-standardized hospital CFR trend decreased throughout the period, varying from 31.8% (95%CI: 31.2 to 32.5%) in week 10 to 18.2% (95%CI: 17.6 to 18.8%) in week 40. This decreasing trend was observed in all sex, age, ethnic groups, length of stay and ICU admissions. Consistently, later admission (from July to September) was an independent protective factor. Patients 80+ year old had a hazard ratio of 8.18 (95% CI: 7.51 to 8.91). Ethnicity, comorbidities, and ICU need were also associated with the death risk. Although also decreasing, the CFR was always around 40-50% in people who needed an ICU admission.
The overall hospital CFR of COVID-19 has decreased in Brazilian public hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, during the entire period, the CFR was still very high, suggesting the need for improving COVID-19 hospital care in Brazil.