随着经济和科技的发展,年国内生产总值(GDP)和二氧化碳(CO2)排放随时间变化的趋势。经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间的关系被认为是最重要的经验关系之一。在这项研究中,我们关注上海合作组织的成员,包括中国,俄罗斯,印度,和巴基斯坦,并收集1969年至2014年的二氧化碳排放量和年度GDP。使用统计方法和检验来查找这些国家的年度GDP与CO2排放量之间的关系。基于年排放与CO2排放之间的关系,提出了一种新颖的多步预测算法,称为带有人工蜂群的极限学习机(ELM-ABC),用于基于CO2排放量和历史GDP特征来预测年度GDP。根据实验结果,结果表明,该模型在GDP预测方面具有超强的预测能力,可以预测相应国家未来十年的年度GDP。此外,预测结果显示,中国和巴基斯坦的年度GDP将继续增长,但在2025年后增长将放缓。印度的年度GDP将表现出不稳定的增长。俄罗斯的趋势将遵循2010年至2016年的模式。
With the development of economic and technologies, the trend of annual Gross Domestic Product (
GDP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission changes with time passes. The relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is considered as one of the most important empirical relationships. In this study, we focus on the member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, including China, Russia, India, and Pakistan and collect CO2 emission and annual GDP from 1969 to 2014. The statistical methods and tests are used to find the relationship between annual
GDP and CO2 emission in these countries. Based on relationship between annual and CO2 emission, a novel multi-step prediction algorithm called Extreme Learning Machine with Artificial Bee Colony (ELM-ABC) is proposed for forecasting annual GDP based on CO2 emission and historical
GDP features. According to the experimental results, it proved that the proposed model had a super forecasting ability in GDP prediction and it could predict ten-year future annual
GDP for the corresponding countries. Moreover, the forecasting results showed that the annual GDP of China and Pakistan will continue to grow but growth will slow after 2025. The annual
GDP in India will exhibit unstable growth. The trend of Russia will follow the pattern between 2010 and 2016.