由于许多国家对气候变化风险的脆弱性,农村和农业社区对气候变化的适应受到了极大的关注。南亚也出现了类似的趋势,一个气候脆弱的地区,考虑到农业部门对气候引发的灾害的脆弱性,那里的研究急剧增长。然而,对适应农村家庭生计的关注很少。这项研究,因此,以巴基斯坦为例,探索农村家庭对气候变化的生计适应战略,并调查加快或停止采用生计多样化战略的因素。本研究采用了多级抽样设计,选择了巴基斯坦旁遮普省的480户农村家庭,并使用分层抽样和随机抽样方法进行了访谈。采用多变量概率(MVP)回归模型来分析影响家庭采用生计适应策略的因素。结果表明,除了适应农艺操作(农业适应策略)外,研究地区的农村家庭采用了广泛的策略来使生计适应气候变化。这些策略包括家禽和牲畜养殖,农产品增值,动物和农产品贸易,小企业(商店,等。),日薪劳动,园艺作物种植,和非农业工作。对MVP模型的估计表明,受访者的教育,家庭大小,收入,获得信贷便利,获得农场咨询服务,以及获得气候预测对生计适应策略的选择产生了重大影响。基于这些发现,这项研究建议,当局应努力提高农民对适应气候变化风险的理解,并教育他们采取多种生计选择,以提高他们的生计对气候风险的抵御能力。这项研究对其他具有类似社会经济特征的国家具有重要的政策意义。
Rural and agricultural communities\'
adaptation to climate change has gained significant attention owing to many countries\' vulnerability to climate change risks. A similar trend has been witnessed in South Asia, a highly climate-vulnerable region, where research has grown dramatically considering the agriculture sector\'s vulnerability to climate-induced disasters. However, little attention has been paid to the
adaptation of the livelihoods of rural households. This research, therefore, takes the
case of Pakistan to explore livelihood
adaptation strategies of rural households to climate change and investigate the factors that expedite or halt the adoption of livelihood diversification strategies. A multistage sampling design is used in this research, where 480 rural households from the Punjab province of Pakistan were selected and interviewed using stratified and random sampling approaches. A multivariate probit (MVP) regression model is employed to analyze the factors affecting households\' adoption of livelihood
adaptation strategies. The results show that besides
adaptation of agronomic operations (agricultural
adaptation strategies), rural households in the study area employed a wide range of strategies to adapt their livelihoods to climate change. These strategies include poultry and livestock farming, value addition of farm produce, trading of animals and farm commodities, small businesses (shops, etc.), daily wage labor, horticultural crop farming, and non-farming jobs. The estimates of the MVP model revealed that respondents\' education, household size, income, access to a credit facility, access to farm advisory services, and access to climate forecasts have significantly influenced the choice of livelihood adaptation strategies. Based on these findings, this research recommends that the authorities should make efforts to improve farmers\' understanding of the adaptation of climate change risks and educate them to adopt multiple livelihood options to improve the resilience of their livelihoods to climate-induced risks. This research has important policy implications for other countries with similar socio-economic features.