Abstract：
The aim of this study is to analyze the spatiotemporal risk of congenital syphilis (CS) in high-prevalence areas in the city of São Paulo, SP, Brazil, and to evaluate its relationship with socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental variables. An ecological study was conducted based on secondary CS data with spatiotemporal components collected from 310 areas between 2010 and 2016. The data were modeled in a Bayesian context using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. Risk maps showed an increasing CS trend over time and highlighted the areas that presented the highest and lowest risk in each year. The model showed that the factors positively associated with a higher risk of CS were the Gini index and the proportion of women aged 18-24 years without education or with incomplete primary education, while the factors negatively associated were the proportion of women of childbearing age and the mean per capita income.
摘要：
这项研究的目的是分析圣保罗市高流行地区先天性梅毒（CS）的时空风险，SP,巴西,并评估其与社会经济的关系，人口统计学,和环境变量。根据2010年至2016年从310个地区收集的具有时空成分的次级CS数据进行了生态研究。使用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似（INLA）方法在贝叶斯背景下对数据进行建模。风险图显示，随着时间的推移，CS趋势不断增加，并突出显示了每年风险最高和最低的领域。该模型显示，与CS风险较高正相关的因素是Gini指数和18-24岁未受过教育或初等教育不完整的女性比例，而与育龄妇女比例和人均收入呈负相关的因素。
