Abstract：
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change. To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis. Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.
摘要：
暴露在高温和低温环境下会对人体健康造成伤害。由于全球变暖,除非人们适应生活在更温暖的世界，否则与热相关的健康影响在未来可能会大幅增加。对温度的适应可能是通过生理适应来实现的，行为机制，有计划的适应。为应对气候变化提供信息的一个基本步骤是了解在估计未来的健康负担时如何适当考虑适应。以前的建模适应研究使用了多种方法，通常不清楚适应的基本假设是如何做出的，以及它们是否基于证据。因此,目前尚不清楚在健康影响预测中对适应进行定量建模的最合适方法。随着决策者对实施适应战略的兴趣日益增加，重要的是要考虑适应在预测未来气候变化的健康负担方面的作用。为了解决这个问题，使用系统范围界定方法进行了文献综述，以记录预测气候变化下未来温度相关健康影响的研究所采用的定量方法，这些研究也考虑了适应。研究中采用的方法被编码为方法论类别。在综合过程中，审稿人之间对类别进行了讨论和完善。纳入了59项研究，并将其分为八个方法学类别。随着时间的推移，将适应纳入预测的方法发生了变化，最近的研究使用了多种方法的组合或根据特定的适应战略或社会经济条件对适应进行建模。模型自适应的最常见方法是热阈值偏移和曝光响应斜率的减小。不到20％的研究被确定为使用基于干预的经验基础进行统计假设。在预测中包括适应，大大减少了未来预计的温度-死亡率负担。研究人员应确保所有未来影响评估都包括预测中的适应不确定性，并且假设基于经验证据。
