PDF(Sci-hub)
Abstract：
Archaeology, linguistics, and increasingly genetics are clarifying how populations moved from mainland Asia, through Island Southeast Asia, and out into the Pacific during the farming revolution. Yet key features of this process remain poorly understood, particularly how social behaviors intersected with demographic drivers to create the patterns of genomic diversity observed across Island Southeast Asia today. Such questions are ripe for computer modeling. Here, we construct an agent-based model to simulate human mobility across Island Southeast Asia from the Neolithic period to the present, with a special focus on interactions between individuals with Asian, Papuan, and mixed Asian-Papuan ancestry. Incorporating key features of the region, including its complex geography (islands and sea), demographic drivers (fecundity and migration), and social behaviors (marriage preferences), the model simultaneously tracks a full suite of genomic markers (autosomes, X chromosome, mitochondrial DNA, and Y chromosome). Using Bayesian inference, model parameters were determined that produce simulations that closely resemble the admixture profiles of 2299 individuals from 84 populations across Island Southeast Asia. The results highlight that greater propensity to migrate and elevated birth rates are related drivers behind the expansion of individuals with Asian ancestry relative to individuals with Papuan ancestry, that offspring preferentially resulted from marriages between Asian women and Papuan men, and that in contrast to current thinking, individuals with Asian ancestry were likely distributed across large parts of western Island Southeast Asia before the Neolithic expansion.
摘要：
考古学,语言学,越来越多的遗传学正在澄清人口是如何从亚洲大陆迁移的，穿过东南亚岛，在农业革命期间进入太平洋。然而，这个过程的关键特征仍然知之甚少，特别是社会行为如何与人口驱动因素相交，以创造当今东南亚岛屿上观察到的基因组多样性模式。这样的问题对于计算机建模是成熟的。这里,我们构建了一个基于代理的模型来模拟从新石器时代到现在整个东南亚岛屿的人类流动，特别关注个人与亚洲人之间的互动，巴布亚,和混合的亚洲-巴布亚血统。结合该地区的主要特点，包括其复杂的地理（岛屿和海洋），人口驱动因素(繁殖力和移民)，和社会行为（婚姻偏好），该模型同时跟踪全套基因组标记(常染色体，X染色体,线粒体DNA,和Y染色体）。使用贝叶斯推理，确定了模型参数，这些参数产生的模拟结果与来自东南亚岛屿84个种群的2299个个体的混合特征非常相似。结果突出表明，相对于具有巴布亚血统的个体，具有亚洲血统的个体的扩张背后有更大的移民倾向和出生率的上升是相关的驱动因素。后代优先来自亚洲女性和巴布亚男性之间的婚姻，与目前的想法相反，在新石器时代扩张之前，具有亚洲血统的个体可能分布在东南亚西部岛屿的大部分地区。
