• 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:目的是检查胫骨后神经刺激(PTNS)对膀胱,肠,在一组患有难治性下尿路症状(LUTS)的多发性硬化症(MS)患者中,与性健康相关的生活质量。
    方法:招募MS和难治性LUTS患者进行前瞻性,使用PTNS治疗其症状的观察性研究。患者接受12周30分钟PTNS治疗和膀胱,肠,性症状在基线时进行评估,3、12和24个月的日记,视觉模拟量表(VAS),并验证了患者报告的问卷,包括美国泌尿外科协会症状评分(AUA-SS),神经源性膀胱症状评分(BSS),密歇根尿失禁症状指数(M-ISI)健康状况问卷,性满意度量表,和肠道控制量表。
    结果:共招募23例患者:18例开始PTNS,14例完成3个月的PTNS。在开始PTNS的18人中,平均年龄为52岁(SD12),61%是女性,83%是白色的,大多数患者复发缓解(39%)MS。基线(n=18)和3个月排尿(n=11)结果显示,排尿或失禁发作的数量没有显着变化。中位VAS症状改善为49(IQR26.5,26)和9(53%)患者选择每月维持PTNS。在配对分析中,BSS的中位数变化显着改善,AUA-SS,还有M-ISI.肠道或性功能障碍无明显变化。
    结论:这种前瞻性,PTNS在MS伴难治性LUTS患者中的观察性研究显示,患者报告的膀胱结局有所改善,但不是每天的空隙数量或肠或膀胱功能。
    OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine the outcomes of posterior tibial nerve stimulation (PTNS) on bladder, bowel, and sexual health-related quality of life among a cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) with refractory lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS).
    METHODS: Patients with MS and refractory LUTS were recruited for a prospective, observational study using PTNS to treat their symptoms. Patients underwent 12 weekly 30-min PTNS sessions and bladder, bowel, and sexual symptoms were evaluated at baseline, 3, 12, and 24 months with voiding diaries, visual analog scales (VAS), and validated patient-reported questionnaires, including the American Urological Association Symptom Score (AUA-SS), Neurogenic Bladder Symptom Score (NBSS), Michigan Incontinence Symptom Index (M-ISI), Health Status Questionnaire, Sexual Satisfaction Scale, and Bowel Control Scale.
    RESULTS: A total of 23 patients were recruited: 18 started PTNS and 14 completed 3 months of PTNS. Of the 18 who started PTNS, the mean age was 52 years (SD 12), 61% were female, 83% were white, and most patients had relapsing remitting (39%) MS. Baseline (n=18) and 3-month voiding (n=11) outcomes showed no significant change in number of voids or incontinence episodes. The median VAS symptom improvement was 49 (IQR 26.5, 26) and 9 (53%) patients elected for monthly maintenance PTNS. On paired analysis, there was a significant improvement in median change in NBSS, AUA-SS, and M-ISI. There was no significant change in bowel or sexual dysfunction.
    CONCLUSIONS: This prospective, observational study of PTNS in patients with MS with refractory LUTS shows improvement in patient-reported bladder outcomes, but not in number of voids per day or bowel or bladder function.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:系统性硬化症(SSc)患者在COVID-19大流行早期的焦虑症状增加,然后恢复到大流行前的水平,但这是一项综合发现,并未评估疫苗接种是否有助于降低焦虑症状水平.我们调查了接种COVID-19疫苗是否与SSc患者焦虑症状减轻有关。
    方法:以患者为中心的纵向硬皮病干预网络(SPIN)COVID-19队列于2020年4月启动,包括来自正在进行的SPIN队列和外部参与者的参与者。参与者每两周完成一次测量,直到2020年7月,然后每4周完成一次测量,直到2022年8月(32次评估)。我们使用线性混合模型来评估PROMIS焦虑4av1.0焦虑域评分的纵向趋势及其与疫苗接种的关联。
    结果:在纳入分析的517名参与者中,到2021年9月,489人(95%)接种了疫苗,随后没有参与者接种疫苗。除了开头的短暂,当很少有人接种疫苗时,和结束,当只有28名参与者没有接种疫苗时,焦虑症状轨迹在很大程度上是重叠的。到2022年8月,从未接种疫苗的参与者有更高的焦虑症状,但没有其他差异。接受疫苗接种似乎并没有显著改变焦虑症状的轨迹.
    结论:在COVID-19大流行期间,疫苗接种似乎没有影响SSc脆弱人群焦虑症状的变化。这可能是由于人们在未接种疫苗时限制自己的行为,一旦接种疫苗以保持稳定的焦虑症状,就会恢复到更正常的社会参与。
    OBJECTIVE: Symptoms of anxiety increased early in the COVID-19 pandemic among people with systemic sclerosis (SSc) then returned to pre-pandemic levels, but this was an aggregate finding and did not evaluate whether vaccination may have contributed to reduced anxiety symptom levels. We investigated whether being vaccinated for COVID-19 was associated with reduced anxiety symptoms among people with SSc.
    METHODS: The longitudinal Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN) COVID-19 Cohort was launched in April 2020 and included participants from the ongoing SPIN Cohort and external enrollees. Participants completed measures bi-weekly through July 2020, then every 4 weeks afterwards through August 2022 (32 assessments). We used linear mixed models to evaluate longitudinal trends of PROMIS Anxiety 4a v1.0 anxiety domain scores and their association with vaccination.
    RESULTS: Among 517 participants included in analyses, 489 (95%) were vaccinated by September 2021, and no participants were vaccinated subsequently. Except for briefly at the beginning, when few had received a vaccine, and end, when only 28 participants remained unvaccinated, anxiety symptom trajectories were largely overlapping. Participants who were never vaccinated had higher anxiety symptoms by August 2022, but there were no other differences, and receiving a vaccination did not appear to change anxiety symptom trajectories meaningfully.
    CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination did not appear to influence changes in anxiety symptoms among vulnerable people with SSc during the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be due to people restricting their behavior when they were unvaccinated and returning to more normal social engagement once vaccinated to maintain a steady level of anxiety symptoms.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:COVID-19大流行引起了临床医生的关注,特别是抗CD20单克隆抗体(mAb)和芬戈莫德,可能会使多发性硬化症(pwMS)患者的COVID-19恶化。这项研究旨在检查DMT在大流行发作前后的处方趋势。
    方法:对来自MSBase的8,771名参与者进行了一项多中心纵向研究。定义了两个时间段:大流行前(2018年3月11日至2020年3月10日)和大流行后(2020年3月11日至2022年3月11日)。使用多变量混合效应逻辑回归分析时间和处方趋势之间的关联。DMT启动是指任何DMT的首次启动,而DMT开关表明在最后一次使用后6个月内改变方案。
    结果:大流行发作后,DMT开始/转换为那他珠单抗和克拉屈滨的显着增加[(那他珠单抗开始:OR1.72,95%CI1.39-2.13;转换:OR1.66,95%CI1.40-1.98),(克拉屈滨起始:OR1.43,95%CI1.09-1.87;转换:OR1.67,95%CI1.41-1.98)]。抗CD20mAb启动/转换在大流行的年份减少,但是在第二年恢复了,这样,大流行后的总体几率略有增加(开始:OR1.26,95%CI1.06-1.49;转换:OR1.15,95%CI1.02-1.29。芬戈莫德的启动/切换,干扰素-β,和阿仑单抗显着降低[(芬戈莫德开始:OR0.55,95%CI0.41-0.73;转换:OR0.49,95%CI0.41-0.58),(干扰素-γ起始:OR0.48,95%CI0.41-0.57;转换:OR0.78,95%CI0.62-0.99),(阿仑珠单抗起始:OR0.27,95%CI0.15-0.48;转换:OR0.27,95%CI0.17-0.44)]。
    结论:大流行发作后,临床医生优先使用那他珠单抗和克拉屈滨,而不是抗CD20单克隆抗体和芬戈莫德,可能保持疗效,但降低感知的免疫抑制风险。这可能对pwMS中的疾病进展有影响。我们的发现强调了全球公平的DMT准入的重要性,以及循证决策在全球卫生挑战中的重要性。
    BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic raised concern amongst clinicians that disease-modifying therapies (DMT), particularly anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (mAb) and fingolimod, could worsen COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). This study aimed to examine DMT prescribing trends pre- and post-pandemic onset.
    METHODS: A multi-centre longitudinal study with 8,771 participants from MSBase was conducted. Two time periods were defined: pre-pandemic (March 11 2018-March 10 2020) and post-pandemic onset (March 11 2020-11 March 2022). The association between time and prescribing trends was analysed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression. DMT initiation refers to first initiation of any DMT, whilst DMT switches indicate changing regimen within 6 months of last use.
    RESULTS: Post-pandemic onset, there was a significant increase in DMT initiation/switching to natalizumab and cladribine [(Natalizumab-initiation: OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.39-2.13; switching: OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.40-1.98), (Cladribine-initiation: OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87; switching: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.41-1.98)]. Anti-CD20mAb initiation/switching decreased in the year of the pandemic, but recovered in the second year, such that overall odds increased slightly post-pandemic (initiation: OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.49; Switching: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.29. Initiation/switching of fingolimod, interferon-beta, and alemtuzumab significantly decreased [(Fingolimod-initiation: OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73; switching: OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.41-0.58), (Interferon-gamma-initiation: OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.57; switching: OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99), (Alemtuzumab-initiation: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.48; switching: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.44)].
    CONCLUSIONS: Post-pandemic onset, clinicians preferentially prescribed natalizumab and cladribine over anti-CD20 mAbs and fingolimod, likely to preserve efficacy but reduce perceived immunosuppressive risks. This could have implications for disease progression in pwMS. Our findings highlight the significance of equitable DMT access globally, and the importance of evidence-based decision-making in global health challenges.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景/目的:角质病是不溶性钙盐的沉积,这可能会引起炎症,溃疡,疼痛,限制了关节的机动性。它很少在受损组织(营养不良亚型)中发展,最常见的是自身免疫性结缔组织疾病(CTDs),但是关于患病率的数据非常有限。此外,治疗仍然是一个未解决的问题。在这项研究中,我们旨在收集CTD患者中钙质沉着患病率的数据,以强调这是一个相当大的问题.方法:我科进行了一项回顾性研究,以评估2003年1月至2024年1月间CTD中营养不良性钙质沉着的流行病学。结果:共确定了839例CTD患者,其中56人患有钙质沉着症(6.67%)。诊断为潜在CTD时,钙质沉着患者的平均年龄为41.16±19.47岁。从钙质沉着开始的平均时间间隔为5.96±8.62年。系统性硬化症是最常见的CTD并发钙质沉着症(n=22)。结论:我们的结果与以前文献中报道的结果相当。虽然钙质沉着在总体人群中很少见,这是CTD患者目前尚未解决的问题。因此,钙质沉着的发生和发展的相关因素及其治疗需要进一步研究。
    Background/Objectives: Calcinosis cutis is the deposition of insoluble calcium salts, which may cause inflammation, ulceration, pain, and restricted joint mobility. It rarely develops in damaged tissues (dystrophic subtype), most frequently in autoimmune connective tissue diseases (CTDs), but there is very limited data on the prevalence. Also, therapy remains an unsolved issue. In this study, we aimed to collect data on the prevalence of calcinosis in CTD patients to highlight that it is a considerable problem. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in our department to assess the epidemiology of dystrophic calcinosis in CTDs between January 2003 and January 2024. Results: A total of 839 CTD patients were identified, of whom 56 had calcinosis (6.67%). The mean age of the calcinosis patients at diagnosis of underlying CTD was 41.16 ± 19.47 years. The mean time interval from the onset of calcinosis was 5.96 ± 8.62 years. Systemic sclerosis was the most common CTD complicated by calcinosis (n = 22). Conclusions: Our results are comparable to those reported previously in the literature. Although calcinosis is rare in the overall population, it is a present and unsolved problem in CTD patients. Therefore, further studies are needed on the factors involved in the development and progression of calcinosis as well as its treatment.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    光学相干断层扫描(OCT)是一种基于低相干干涉测量原理的非侵入性成像技术,可捕获眼部结构的详细图像。多发性硬化症(MS)是一种神经退行性疾病,可导致视神经和视网膜的损伤,这可以由OCT描述。这项初步研究的目的是确定黄斑OCT是否可以用作检测MS患者视觉通路的泪后病变的生物标志物。我们进行了一项前瞻性研究,其中包括52名MS患者和27名健康对照。所有参与者都接受了脑部MRI检查,视野测试,和OCT评估乳头周围视网膜神经纤维层(pRNFL)的厚度,黄斑神经节细胞层(GCL),和黄斑内网状层(IPL)。针对视神经炎(ON)调整OCT测量值。VF显示描绘脑MRI(PPV0.50)确定的后交叉病变的能力较差。总之,与VF变化相比,对黄斑的OCT分析似乎在识别交叉后MS病变方面更出色.GCL和IPL的改变证明了对MS患者的视交叉后视觉通路变化的最准确检测。
    Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive imaging technique based on the principle of low-coherence interferometry that captures detailed images of ocular structures. Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative disease that can lead to damage of the optic nerve and retina, which can be depicted by OCT. The purpose of this pilot study is to determine whether macular OCT can be used as a biomarker in the detection of retrochiasmal lesions of the visual pathway in MS patients. We conducted a prospective study in which we included 52 MS patients and 27 healthy controls. All participants underwent brain MRI, visual field testing, and OCT evaluation of the thicknesses of the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL), macular ganglion cell layer (GCL), and macular inner plexiform layer (IPL). OCT measurements were adjusted for optic neuritis (ON). VF demonstrated poor capability to depict a retrochiasmal lesion identified by brain MRI (PPV 0.50). In conclusion, the OCT analysis of the macula appears to excel in identifying retrochiasmal MS lesions compared to VF changes. The alterations in the GCL and IPL demonstrate the most accurate detection of retrochiasmal visual pathway changes in MS patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:在多发性硬化症中,纳他珠单抗治疗期间的消失症状的特征是在那他珠单抗给药前MS相关症状的增加。延长间隔给药(EID)对磨损症状的影响需要考虑,因为这可能会导致在启动或继续EID时犹豫不决。
    方法:NEXT-MS试验的参与者,根据药物浓度调整治疗间隔,分为两组:一个扩展组,包含至少一周额外间隔延长的参与者,和一组在试验期间具有固定间隔(范围4-7周)。发生的变化,频率,发病,并评估磨损症状的严重程度。
    结果:包括255名参与者(扩展组n=171,固定组n=84)。延长治疗间隔后,延长组出现磨损症状的几率没有增加。频率的其他分析,发病,磨损症状的严重程度没有随时间的变化。那他珠单抗药物浓度的平均降低不影响耗损症状的频率。
    结论:进一步延长那他珠单抗的间隔期并不能强化戒断症状。EID后少数患者的戒断症状可能会增加,尽管我们的数据支持这样的观点,即磨损症状似乎与那他珠单抗药物浓度的降低无关.
    OBJECTIVE: Wearing-off symptoms during natalizumab treatment in multiple sclerosis are characterized by an increase of MS-related symptoms prior to natalizumab administration. The influence of extended interval dosing (EID) on wearing-off symptoms are important to consider, as this might cause hesitancy in initiating or continuing EID.
    METHODS: Participants of the NEXT-MS trial, in which treatment intervals are adjusted based on drug concentrations, were divided into two groups: an extended group containing participants with at least one week of additional interval extension, and a group with a fixed interval during the trial (range 4-7 weeks). Changes in the occurrence, frequency, onset, and severity of wearing-off symptoms were evaluated.
    RESULTS: 255 participants were included (extended group n = 171, fixed group n = 84). The odds on occurrence of wearing-off symptoms in the extended group did not increase after extending the treatment interval. Additional analyses for frequency, onset, and severity of wearing-off symptoms showed no changes over time. Mean decrease in natalizumab drug concentration did not influence the frequency of wearing-off symptoms.
    CONCLUSIONS: Wearing-off symptoms were not reinforced by further extending the natalizumab interval. Wearing-off symptoms might increase in a minority of patients after EID, although our data support the view that wearing-off symptoms appear to be unrelated to the decrease in natalizumab trough drug concentrations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:多发性硬化症(MS),因为它的发病年龄较早,以与不同因素相关的方式极大地影响受其影响的人的工作生活,专业和个人。据观察,只有一小部分(20-40%)的MS工人在诊断后保留工作。在此设置中确定决定工作保留或损失的因素时,必须考虑MS(PwMS)患者的直接观点。
    方法:定性研究,基于两个焦点小组的传导,进行了探索工作的PwMS的个人经历。
    结果:结果表明,因素众多,积极和消极的,这会影响这些人保住工作的能力。在工作场所建立的氛围以及工人与MS及其同事之间的关系是至关重要的方面,公众舆论层面对这种疾病的了解也是如此。
    结论:管理工作对于患有MS等残疾疾病的人来说是一项复杂的工作。需要提高对PwMS就业权的认识。改善这些基于知识的方面无疑可以提高PwM的工作生活质量。
    BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS), because of its early age at onset, greatly impacts the working lives of those affected by it in ways linked to different factors, both professional and personal. It has been observed that only a small percentage (20-40%) of workers with MS retain their jobs after the diagnosis. When identifying factors determining job retention or loss in this setting, it is essential to consider the direct perspectives of people with MS (PwMS).
    METHODS: A qualitative study, based on the conduction of two focus groups, was conducted to explore the personal experiences of PwMS who work.
    RESULTS: The results show that there are numerous factors, both positive and negative, that can influence these people\'s ability to retain their jobs. The climate established in the workplace and the relationship between workers with MS and their colleagues were fundamentally important aspects, as was knowledge of the disease at the level of public opinion.
    CONCLUSIONS: Managing work is a complex undertaking for people with a disabling condition like MS. There needs to be greater awareness of the employment rights of PwMS. Improving these knowledge-based aspects could undoubtedly improve the quality of the working lives of PwM.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    系统性硬化症(SSc)是一种慢性自身免疫性疾病,其特征不仅在于纤维化和血管病变,还在于炎症。以前的研究表明单核细胞参与SSc的发育,提示免疫功能障碍在SSc发病机制中的作用。
    探讨SSc的临床表现与单核细胞亚群水平改变的关系。
    26名符合ACR/EULARSSc标准的患者以及20名健康人作为对照组,参加了这项研究。从SSc患者和对照组的肝素化血液样品中获得外周血单核细胞(PBMC)。基于HLA-DR评估单核细胞亚群,使用多色流式细胞术的CD14和CD16表达。单向方差分析,学生t检验,对正态分布和非正态分布数据采用Mann-WhitneyU检验。使用Spearman相关性检验来识别变量之间的相关性。
    SSc患者显示循环外周血单核细胞数量显着增加(p<0.001)。与对照组相比,SSc病例中CD16单核细胞亚群的百分比更高。与对照组相比,在SSc病例(7.43%)中观察到经典与非经典单核细胞的比例显着降低(52.09%,p<0.001)。在单核细胞亚群与SSC的临床特征之间未观察到关联。
    我们的结果显示,与健康个体相比,SSc患者的CD16单核细胞水平增加。需要进一步研究以确定这种改变的临床意义。
    UNASSIGNED: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic autoimmune disorder characterized not only by fibrosis and vasculopathy but also by inflammation. Previous studies have demonstrated monocyte involvement in SSc development, suggesting a role for immune dysfunction in SSc pathogenesis.
    UNASSIGNED: To investigate the relationship between SSc\'s clinical manifestations and altered levels of monocyte subpopulations.
    UNASSIGNED: Twenty-six patients meeting the ACR/EULAR SSc criteria along with twenty healthy individuals as the control group, were enrolled in the study. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were obtained from heparinized blood samples of both the SSc patients and the control group. Subpopulations of monocytes were assessed based on HLA-DR, CD14, and CD16 expression using multi-color flow cytometry. The one-way ANOVA, Student\'s t-test, and Mann-Whitney U test were employed for normally and non-normally distributed data. The Spearman correlation test was utilized to identify correlations between the variables.
    UNASSIGNED: The SSc patients showed a significant increase in the number of circulating peripheral blood monocytes (p<0.001). The percentage of CD16+ monocyte subpopulations was higher in the SSc cases compared to the control group. A significant decrease in the ratio of classic to non-classic monocytes was observed in SSc cases (7.43%) compared to the control group (52.09%, p<0.001). No association was observed between monocyte subpopulations and clinical characteristics of SSC.
    UNASSIGNED: Our results showed an increase in the level of CD16+ monocytes in patients with SSc compared to healthy individuals. Further investigation is required to determine the clinical significance of this alteration.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    多发性硬化症(MS)是一种影响中枢神经系统的慢性炎性疾病。虽然以前的研究表明白蛋白,人血浆中的主要蛋白质,可能会对炎症过程产生影响,并在神经退行性疾病中产生有益的作用,其在MS背景下的作用尚未得到充分探索。这里,我们旨在探讨白蛋白与MS风险之间的联系。
    使用英国生物银行的数据,我们使用Cox比例风险回归分析研究了血清和尿白蛋白基线水平与MS风险之间的关联.
    较高的血清白蛋白基线水平与较低的MS事件风险相关(HR=0.94,95%CI:0.91-0.98,P=7.66E-04)。亚组分析显示,女性有更明显的效果,以及年龄较小的参与者,吸烟少,维生素D缺乏,相反,基线微量白蛋白尿水平与MS事件风险之间无关联。
    基线时较高的血清白蛋白水平与MS的风险降低有关。这些结果有助于增强对白蛋白在MS中的作用的理解,提出白蛋白作为MS生物标志物的潜在用途,并对临床试验中针对白蛋白的治疗干预措施的设计有意义。
    UNASSIGNED: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease affecting the central nervous system. While previous studies have indicated that albumin, the primary protein in human plasma, may exert influence on the inflammatory process and confer beneficial effects in neurodegenerative disorders, its role in the context of MS has been underexplored. Here, we aimed to explore the link between albumin and the risk of MS.
    UNASSIGNED: Employing data from the UK Biobank, we investigated the association between baseline levels of serum and urine albumin and the risk of MS using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.
    UNASSIGNED: A higher baseline level of serum albumin was associated with a lower risk of incident MS (HR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.98, P=7.66E-04). Subgroup analysis revealed a more pronounced effect in females, as well as participants with younger ages, less smoking and deficient levels of vitamin D. Conversely, no association was identified between baseline microalbuminuria level and risk of incident MS.
    UNASSIGNED: Higher serum albumin level at baseline is linked to a reduced risk of MS. These results contribute to an enhanced understanding of albumin\'s role in MS, propose the potential use of albumin as a biomarker for MS, and have implications for the design of therapeutic interventions targeting albumin in clinical trials.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:复发缓解型多发性硬化症患者的个体化治疗和优化治疗是一个具有挑战性的问题,这将受益于临床有效的决策支持。Stühler等人。提出了为此目的的黑盒模型,这些模型是在德国注册表中开发和内部评估的,但缺乏外部验证。
    方法:在来自法国OFSEP注册的患者中,我们独立建立并验证了预测无复发和无确认残疾进展(CDP)的模型,遵循Stühler报告的方法路线图和预测因子。分层贝叶斯模型适用于预测6种疾病修饰治疗下的结果,考虑到治疗变化的时刻的各个疾病过程。数据在2017年进行了时间分割,并在早期治疗的患者中开发了模型(n=5517)。校正曲线,歧视,在近期患者(n=3768)中,通过模型的外部验证评估了均方误差(MSE)和根MSE的相对百分比(RMSE%).还应用了非贝叶斯固定效应GLM,并将其结果与贝叶斯结果进行了比较。对于两者来说,我们用负二项分布模拟了治疗中复发的次数,和二项分布的CDP发生。
    结果:我们的时间验证的复发模型(MSE:0.326,C指数:0.639)的性能可能优于Stühler的(MSE:0.784,C指数:0.608)。校准图显示校准错误。我们的CDP模型(MSE:0.072,C指数:0.777)也优于其对应模型(MSE:0.131,C指数:0.554)。非贝叶斯固定效应GLM模型的结果与贝叶斯模型相似。
    结论:在独立数据中重建和外部验证的复发和CDP模型可以比较并增强Stühler模型的可信度。他们的模型构建策略是可复制的。
    BACKGROUND: Individualizing and optimizing treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients is a challenging problem, which would benefit from a clinically valid decision support. Stühler et al. presented black box models for this aim which were developed and internally evaluated in a German registry but lacked external validation.
    METHODS: In patients from the French OFSEP registry, we independently built and validated models predicting being free of relapse and free of confirmed disability progression (CDP), following the methodological roadmap and predictors reported by Stühler. Hierarchical Bayesian models were fit to predict the outcomes under 6 disease-modifying treatments given the individual disease course up to the moment of treatment change. Data was temporally split on 2017, and models were developed in patients treated earlier (n = 5517). Calibration curves, discrimination, mean squared error (MSE) and relative percentage of root MSE (RMSE%) were assessed by external validation of models in more-recent patients (n = 3768). Non-Bayesian fixed-effects GLMs were also applied and their outcomes were compared to these of the Bayesian ones. For both, we modelled the number of on-therapy relapses with a negative binomial distribution, and CDP occurrence with a binomial distribution.
    RESULTS: The performance of our temporally-validated relapse model (MSE: 0.326, C-Index: 0.639) is potentially superior to that of Stühler\'s (MSE: 0.784, C-index: 0.608). Calibration plots revealed miscalibration. Our CDP model (MSE: 0.072, C-Index: 0.777) was also better than its counterpart (MSE: 0.131, C-index: 0.554). Results from non-Bayesian fixed-effects GLM models were similar to the Bayesian ones.
    CONCLUSIONS: The relapse and CDP models rebuilt and externally validated in independent data could compare and strengthen the credibility of the Stühler models. Their model-building strategy was replicable.
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