short-term mortality

短期死亡率
  • 文章类型: Letter
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    引言:在这项研究中,我们旨在研究HbA1C/C肽比值对心肌梗死患者短期死亡率(这一时期定义为诊断后30天)的影响.材料与方法:本研究纳入了2020年10月至2024年间因ST段抬高型心肌梗死(STEMI)和非ST段抬高型心肌梗死而入院的3245例患者。结果:在接收机工作特性分析中,HCR评分对ST段抬高型心肌梗死患者死亡率的预测能力为83%的敏感性和81%的特异性.在非ST段抬高型心肌梗死中,这被确定为78%的敏感性和75%的特异性.结论:HbA1C/C肽比值评分可早期预测不良临床结局,降低心肌梗死患者的死亡率和发病率。
    [方框:见正文]。
    Introduction: In this study, we aimed to investigate the effect of HbA1C/C-peptide ratio on short-term mortality (this period is defined as 30 days after diagnosis) in the patients with myocardial infarction. Materials & Methods: Around 3245 patients who were admitted due to ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention between October 2020 and 2024 were included in this study. Results: In the receiver operating characteristic analysis, the predictive power of the HCR score for mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients was determined to be 83% sensitivity and 81% specificity. In non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, this was determined to be 78% sensitivity and 75% specificity. Conclusion: The HbA1C/C-peptide ratio score can predict poor clinical outcomes early, reducing mortality and morbidity in patients with myocardial infarction.
    [Box: see text].
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    弥散性血管内凝血(DIC)是一种破坏性疾病,这总是导致重症监护病房危重患者的不良预后。关于DIC患者短期死亡率预测的研究很少。本研究旨在确定导致DIC死亡率的危险因素并构建预测列线图。
    共纳入676例显性DIC患者。基于使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归确定的协变量,开发了Cox比例风险回归模型。在MIMIC-III和MIMIC-IV临床数据库中独立评估了预测性能,以及第908医院数据库(908thH)。使用MIMIC-III独立评估模型性能,MIMIC-IV,和第908医院临床数据库。
    Cox模型结合了Lasso回归确定的变量,包括心力衰竭,脓毒症,高度,SBP,乳酸水平,HCT,PLT,INR,AST,和去甲肾上腺素的使用。该模型有效地将患者分为不同的死亡风险组,MIMIC-III的C指数>0.65,MIMIC-IV,第908医院数据库。模型在7天和28天的校准曲线表明预测性能良好。然后,开发了列线图以促进结果可视化。决策曲线分析表明,列线图具有出色的净收益。
    这项研究提供了基于Lasso-Cox回归模型的短期公开DIC死亡风险的预测列线图,提供个性化和可靠的死亡风险预测。
    UNASSIGNED: Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is a devastating condition, which always cause poor outcome of critically ill patients in intensive care unit. Studies concerning short-term mortality prediction in DIC patients is scarce. This study aimed to identify risk factors contributing to DIC mortality and construct a predictive nomogram.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 676 overt DIC patients were included. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed based on covariates identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The prediction performance was independently evaluated in the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV Clinical Database, as well as the 908th Hospital Database (908thH). Model performance was independently assessed using MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and the 908th Hospital Clinical Database.
    UNASSIGNED: The Cox model incorporated variables identified by Lasso regression including heart failure, sepsis, height, SBP, lactate levels, HCT, PLT, INR, AST, and norepinephrine use. The model effectively stratified patients into different mortality risk groups, with a C-index of >0.65 across the MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and 908th Hospital databases. The calibration curves of the model at 7 and 28 days demonstrated that the prediction performance was good. And then, a nomogram was developed to facilitate result visualization. Decision curve analysis indicated superior net benefits of the nomogram.
    UNASSIGNED: This study provides a predictive nomogram for short-term overt DIC mortality risk based on a Lasso-Cox regression model, offering individualized and reliable mortality risk predictions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    脓毒症是ICU患者中重症监护病房(ICU)入院和死亡率的重要原因,随着肥胖患病率的上升。关于TyGI与脓毒症患者发现之间的相关性缺乏广泛的研究,尤其是肥胖患者。
    本研究采用回顾性队列设计,纳入了重症监护医学信息集市IV数据库中的脓毒症患者(≥18岁)。使用多变量逻辑回归分析检查TyGI与结果之间的关联。
    8,840例脓毒症患者纳入分析。ICU病死率为9.7%。非幸存者的TyGI水平明显高于幸存者[9.19(8.76-9.71)vs.9.10(8.67-9.54),p<0.001]。调整后的多元回归模型显示,TyGI值升高与ICU(比值比[OR]范围1.072-1.793,p<0.001)和医院(OR范围1.068-1.445,p=0.005)中死亡的可能性更大。限制性三次样条分析显示,在指定范围内,TyGI与ICU和院内死亡风险之间存在非线性关联。亚组分析揭示了一般肥胖的交互作用,腹部肥胖,和空腹血糖受损亚组(分别为p=0.014、0.016和<0.001)。
    TyGI与ICU入住后脓毒症相关的短期死亡风险和不良结局增加相关。
    UNASSIGNED: Sepsis is a significant contributor to both intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality among patients in ICU, with a rising prevalence of obesity. There is a lack of extensive research on the correlation between TyGI and findings in patients with sepsis, especially in obese patients.
    UNASSIGNED: This study used a retrospective cohort design and included patients with sepsis (≥18 years) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. The association between TyGI and outcome was examined using multivariable logistic regression analysis.
    UNASSIGNED: 8,840 patients with sepsis were included in the analysis. The in-ICU mortality rate was 9.7%. Non-survivors exhibited significantly greater TyGI levels than survivors [9.19(8.76-9.71) vs. 9.10(8.67-9.54), p < 0.001]. The adjusted multivariate regression model showed that elevated TyGI values were linked to a greater likelihood of death in ICU (odds ratio [OR] range 1.072-1.793, p < 0.001) and hospital (OR range 1.068-1.445, p = 0.005). Restricted Cubic Spline analysis revealed a nonlinear association between TyGI and in-ICU and in-hospital mortality risks within specified ranges. Subgroup analysis revealed interaction effects in the general obesity, abdominal obesity, and impaired fasting glucose subgroups (p = 0.014, 0.016, and < 0.001, respectively).
    UNASSIGNED: TyGI was associated with an increased sepsis-related short-term mortality risk and adverse outcomes after ICU admission.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    脓毒症的发生和发展与氧自由基的过度产生和减弱的自然清除机制有关。需要进一步可靠的证据来阐明抗氧化疗法的有效性,尤其是对短期死亡率的影响。
    本系统综述和荟萃分析的目的是评估常用抗氧化剂治疗对脓毒症患者短期死亡率的影响。
    根据PRISMA指南,在PubMed/Medline上对成人脓毒症患者的抗氧化剂进行了系统的文献检索,Embase,和Cochrane图书馆从数据库建立到2023年11月。抗氧化剂补充剂可以是单药或多药组合:HAT(氢化可的松,抗坏血酸,和硫胺素),抗坏血酸,硫胺素,N-乙酰半胱氨酸和硒。主要结果是抗氧化剂治疗对短期死亡率的影响,其中包括28天的死亡率,住院死亡率,重症监护病房死亡率,30天死亡率短期死亡率的亚组分析用于减少统计异质性和发表偏倚。
    60项130,986例脓毒症患者的研究符合预定标准,并进行了定量和荟萃分析。通过对当前数据的多变量荟萃分析,抗氧化剂治疗可降低脓毒症患者的短期死亡风险,包括住院死亡率(OR=0.81,95%CI0.67~0.99;P=0.040)和28天死亡率(OR=0.81,95%CI0.69~0.95);P=0.008。特别是在亚组分析中,抗坏血酸治疗可降低住院死亡率(OR=0.66,95%CI0.90~0.98;P=0.006)和28天死亡率(OR=0.43,95%CI0.24~0.75;P=0.003)。然而,随机对照试验的荟萃分析发现,抗氧化治疗药物,尤其是抗坏血酸,显著降低了短期死亡率(OR=0.78,95%CI0.62~0.98;P=0.030;OR=0.57,95%CI0.36~0.91;P=0.020).
    根据RCT的当前数据,抗氧化疗法,尤其是抗坏血酸,有改善脓毒症患者短期死亡率的趋势,但证据仍有待进一步证明。
    UNASSIGNED: The occurrence and development of sepsis are related to the excessive production of oxygen free radicals and the weakened natural clearance mechanism. Further dependable evidence is required to clarify the effectiveness of antioxidant therapy, especially its impact on short-term mortality.
    UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the effect of common antioxidant therapy on short-term mortality in patients with sepsis.
    UNASSIGNED: According to PRISMA guidelines, a systematic literature search on antioxidants in adults sepsis patients was performed on PubMed/Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from the establishment of the database to November 2023. Antioxidant supplements can be a single-drug or multi-drug combination: HAT (hydrocortisone, ascorbic acid, and thiamine), ascorbic acid, thiamine, N-acetylcysteine and selenium. The primary outcome was the effect of antioxidant treatment on short-term mortality, which included 28-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit mortality, and 30-day mortality. Subgroup analyses of short-term mortality were used to reduce statistical heterogeneity and publication bias.
    UNASSIGNED: Sixty studies of 130,986 sepsis patients fulfilled the predefined criteria and were quantified and meta-analyzed. Antioxidant therapy reduces the risk of short-term death in sepsis patients by multivariate meta-analysis of current data, including a reduction of in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.99; P = 0.040) and 28-day mortality (OR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.95]; P = 0.008). Particularly in subgroup analyses, ascorbic acid treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.98; P = 0.006) and 28-day mortality (OR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.75; P = 0.003). However, the meta-analysis of RCTs found that antioxidant therapy drugs, especially ascorbic acid, did substantially reduce short-term mortality(OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.98; P = 0.030; OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.91; P = 0.020).
    UNASSIGNED: According to current data of RCTs, antioxidant therapy, especially ascorbic acid, has a trend of improving short-term mortality in patients with sepsis, but the evidence remains to be further demonstrated.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:本研究旨在评估三种院前预警评分(EWS):RTS,MGAP和MREMS,通过比较美国(美国)和西班牙队列来预测急性危及生命的创伤和损伤/疾病的短期死亡率。
    方法:共8854例患者,8598/256幸存者/非幸存者,由统一队列组成。数据集随机分为训练集和测试集。训练集用于根据曲线下面积(AUC)分析分数的判别力,并在测试集中根据灵敏度(SE)评估评分性能,特异性(SP),精度(ACC)和平衡精度(BAC)。
    结果:三个评分显示出很大的判别力,AUC>0.90,并且在队列之间没有发现显着差异。在测试集中,RTS/MREMS/MGAP显示SE/SP/ACC/BAC值为86.0/89.9/89.6/87.1%,91.0/86.9/87.5/88.5%,和87.7/82.9/83.4/85.2%,分别。
    结论:所有EWS都显示出良好的预测短期死亡风险的能力,独立于国家。
    BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate three prehospital early warning scores (EWSs): RTS, MGAP and MREMS, to predict short-term mortality in acute life-threatening trauma and injury/illness by comparing United States (US) and Spanish cohorts.
    METHODS: A total of 8,854 patients, 8,598/256 survivors/nonsurvivors, comprised the unified cohort. Datasets were randomly divided into training and test sets. Training sets were used to analyse the discriminative power of the scores in terms of the area under the curve (AUC), and the score performance was assessed in the test set in terms of sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP), accuracy (ACC) and balanced accuracy (BAC).
    RESULTS: The three scores showed great discriminative power with AUCs>0.90, and no significant differences between cohorts were found. In the test set, RTS/MREMS/MGAP showed SE/SP/ACC/BAC values of 86.0/89.9/89.6/87.1%, 91.0/86.9/87.5/88.5%, and 87.7/82.9/83.4/85.2%, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: All EWSs showed excellent ability to predict the risk of short-term mortality, independent of the country.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    ST段抬高型心肌梗死(STEMI)是一种需要立即干预的医疗紧急情况,原发性经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(pPCI)是治疗这种疾病的标准。虽然PCI已被证明非常有效,一部分患者经历了毁灭性的无复流现象,有些人面临着短期死亡率的增加。血红蛋白,白蛋白,淋巴细胞,和血小板(HALP)评分,一种新的基于生物标志物的工具,最近成为这些不良结果的创新预测指标。这项研究旨在调查开创性的发现,这些发现将低HALP评分指定为STEMI患者无复流和短期死亡率的可靠风险因素。
    1817例连续接受pPCI的STEMI患者纳入本回顾性研究,根据是否出现无复流,将患者分为两组,并比较各组的HALP评分。此外,根据HALP评分值比较了研究组之间的短期死亡率.使用受试者工作特征曲线评估HALP评分对无回流的预测能力。
    本研究纳入的患者中有198例(10.1%)出现无复流。发现无复流组的HALP评分值显着降低(27±13vs47±24,p<0.001)。经过多变量调整后,HALP评分是无复流的独立预测因子(OR,0.923,95%CI,0.910-0.935,p<0.001)。此外,HALP评分对无回流表现出良好的区分度(AUC,0.771,95%CI,0.737-0.805,p<0.001)。此外,HALP评分被确定为短期死亡率的独立预测因子(HR,0.955,95%CI,0.945-0.966,p<0.001)。
    HALP评分可独立预测接受pPCI的STEMI患者无复流的发展和短期死亡率。
    UNASSIGNED: ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a medical emergency demanding immediate intervention, and primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) is the standard of care for this condition. While PCI has proven highly effective, a subset of patients experience the devastating no-reflow phenomenon, and some face increased short-term mortality. The Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, and Platelet (HALP) score, a novel biomarker-based tool, has recently surfaced as an innovative predictor of these adverse outcomes. This study aims to investigate the groundbreaking findings that designate a low HALP score as a robust risk factor for no-reflow and short-term mortality in STEMI patients.
    UNASSIGNED: 1817 consecutive STEMI patients who underwent pPCI were included in this retrospective study, and the patients were divided into two groups according to whether no-reflow developed or not, and the HALP scores of the groups were compared. In addition, short-term mortality was compared between the study groups according to their HALP score values. The predictive ability of the HALP score for no-reflow was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve.
    UNASSIGNED: No-reflow developed in 198 (10.1%) of the patients included in the study. HALP score value was found to be significantly lower in the no-reflow group (27 ± 13 vs 47 ± 24, p < 0.001). After multivariable adjustment, the HALP score was an independent predictor of no-reflow (OR, 0.923, 95% CI, 0.910-0.935, p < 0.001). Furthermore, the HALP score showed good discrimination for no-reflow (AUC, 0.771, 95% CI, 0.737-0.805, p < 0.001). In addition, HALP score was determined to be an independent predictor for short-term mortality (HR, 0.955, 95% CI, 0.945-0.966, p < 0.001).
    UNASSIGNED: HALP score can independently predict the development of no-reflow and short-term mortality in STEMI patients undergoing pPCI.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在这项研究中,我们调查了各种急性心肌梗死(AMI)症状之间的关联及其与短期(28天)和长期死亡率的关联。
    方法:该分析基于2010年至2017年基于人群的心肌梗死登记处奥格斯堡记录的5,900名年龄在25至84岁之间的首次AMI患者。中位随访时间为3.8年[IQR:1.1-6.3]。作为面对面采访的一部分,评估了急性事件中11种最常见的AMI症状的存在(是/否).使用多变量调整逻辑回归和COX回归模型,研究了各种症状与全因死亡率之间的关系。回归模型的P值经FDR校正。
    结果:身体各部位疼痛(胸痛,左右肩膀/手臂/手,肩胛骨之间),出汗,恶心/呕吐,头晕和对死亡的恐惧/湮灭感与AMI后28天死亡率降低显著相关.疼痛症状和出汗也与长期死亡率降低显著相关。呼吸短促与较高的长期死亡率显着相关。
    结论:没有几种症状,包括典型的胸部不适(胸痛或胸骨后压力/紧绷),与AMI后的不良结局相关。这一发现对患者管理和旨在鼓励非典型AMI症状患者进行适当和及时的医疗咨询的公共卫生措施具有重要意义。
    BACKGROUND: In this study, we investigated various acute myocardial infarction (AMI) symptoms and their associations with short-term (28 day) and long-term mortality.
    METHODS: The analysis was based on 5900 patients, aged 25 to 84 years, with first-time AMI recorded by the population-based Myocardial Infarction Registry Augsburg between 2010 and 2017. Median follow-up time was 3.8 years (interquartile range: 1.1-6.3). As part of a face-to-face interview, the presence (yes/no) of 11 most common AMI symptoms at the acute event was assessed. Using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression and Cox regression models, the association between various symptoms and all-cause mortality was investigated. P values of the regression models were false discovery rate adjusted.
    RESULTS: Pain in various body parts (chest pain, left and right shoulder/arm/hand, between shoulder blades), sweating, nausea/vomiting, dizziness and fear of death/feeling of annihilation were significantly associated with a decreased 28-day mortality after AMI. The pain symptoms and sweating were also significantly associated with a decreased long-term mortality. Shortness of breath was significantly associated with a higher long-term mortality.
    CONCLUSIONS: The absence of several symptoms, including typical chest discomfort (chest pain or retrosternal pressure/tightness), is associated with unfavourable outcomes after AMI. This finding has implications for patient management and public health measures designed to encourage appropriate and prompt medical consultation of patients with atypical AMI symptoms.
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  • 文章类型: Multicenter Study
    罗马严重程度分类是一种基于易于测量的变量的慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重(AECOPD)严重程度的客观评估工具,但尚未得到广泛验证。这项研究的目的是评估罗马分类在根据短期死亡率和其他不良结局区分AECOPD严重程度方面的有效性。
    罗马严重性分类应用于AECOPD住院患者的大型多中心队列。临床特征的差异,住院和60天死亡率,重症监护病房(ICU)入院,机械通气(MV)和有创机械通气(IMV)的使用情况进行了比较,根据罗马提案,中度和重度AECOPD。此外,还进行了单因素logistic分析和KaplanMeier生存分析,以发现Rome严重程度分类与这些不良结局之间的关联.
    共纳入7712例因AECOPD住院的患者,分为轻度(41.88%),中等(40.33%),或根据罗马提案的严重组(17.79%)。ICU入院率(6.4%vs12.0%vs14.9%,P<0.001),MV(11.7%对33.7%对45.3%,P<0.001)和IMV(1.4%vs6.8%vs8.9%,P<0.001)随着严重程度分级从轻度到中度到重度AECOPD的增加而明显增加。中度或重度组的60天死亡率高于轻度组(3.5%vs1.9%,4.3%对1.9%,分别,P<0.05),但在中度和重度组之间没有差异(2.6%vs2.5%,P>0.05),院内死亡率的结果显示了相同的趋势.通过单变量逻辑分析和生存分析观察到类似的发现。
    罗马严重性分类在预测ICU入院和需要MV或IMV方面表现优异,但它在区分短期死亡率方面的表现仍有待确认。
    UNASSIGNED: The Rome severity classification is an objective assessment tool for the severity of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) based on readily measurable variables but has not been widely validated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Rome classification in distinguishing the severity of AECOPD based on short-term mortality and other adverse outcomes.
    UNASSIGNED: The Rome severity classification was applied to a large multicenter cohort of inpatients with AECOPD. Differences in clinical features, in-hospital and 60-day mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation (MV) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) usage were compared among the mild, moderate and severe AECOPD according to the Rome proposal. Moreover, univariate logistic analysis and Kaplan Meier survival analysis were also performed to find the association between the Rome severity classification and those adverse outcomes.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 7712 patients hospitalized for AECOPD were included and classified into mild (41.88%), moderate (40.33%), or severe (17.79%) group according to the Rome proposal. The rate of ICU admission (6.4% vs 12.0% vs 14.9%, P <0.001), MV (11.7% vs 33.7% vs 45.3%, P <0.001) and IMV (1.4% vs 6.8% vs 8.9%, P <0.001) increased significantly with the increase of severity classification from mild to moderate to severe AECOPD. The 60-day mortality was higher in the moderate or severe group than in the mild group (3.5% vs 1.9%, 4.3% vs 1.9%, respectively, P <0.05) but showed no difference between the moderate and severe groups (2.6% vs 2.5%, P >0.05), results for in-hospital mortality showed the same trends. Similar findings were observed by univariate logistic analysis and survival analysis.
    UNASSIGNED: Rome severity classification demonstrated excellent performance in predicting ICU admission and the need for MV or IMV, but how it performs in differentiating short-term mortality still needs to be confirmed.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:有害饮酒是全球疾病负担和伤害状况的主要危险因素之一,在生命早期导致死亡和残疾,全世界每年有超过300万人死亡。酒精性肝炎(AH)是一种以肝功能衰竭为特征的临床综合征,近期出现黄疸,长期大量饮酒的结果。疾病的严重程度从轻度到重度不等,短期死亡率高。关于疾病结果和治疗反应的个体多样性使预后分层复杂化。因此,新的参数,不断寻求更好的疾病结局评估。
    目的:强调准确评估AH患者30天死亡率(短期)的新参数,并使用任何临床医生均可获得的可用参数开发新的严重程度评分。
    方法:这是一项针对2022-2023年间诊断为AH的患者的前瞻性研究。我们确定了70例AH患者,这些患者符合美国国家酒精滥用和酒精中毒研究所(NIAAA)的诊断标准,排除了可能影响疾病结局的严重合并症患者。至少在入院和第7天评估临床和临床参数。30天的死亡率被认为是终点。使用MicrosoftExcel(微软公司)构建数据库,并使用SPSSStatistics版本26(IBM公司)分析数据。
    结果:共有70例患者纳入研究,30天死亡率为22.9%(n=16)。使用单变量分析确定的与短期死亡率增加相关的独立变量是:发烧,感染,食管静脉曲张,凝血酶原时间PT,INR,总胆红素,CRP,LDH和CHI(肌酐身高指数)。使用多元回归,我们确定了一个新的预后评分,保留变量的标准为p<0.05。总胆红素第7天,CRP,PT,分析后出现发热和CHI,并纳入新的死亡率评分.我们的预后模型评分获得的ROC下面积为0.950(95%CI:0.890-0.980,p<0.001),截止值为13.75(Sn=87.5%,Sp=91%)。关于奉献的预后评分,MDF和Lille评分分别获得良好的AUROC=0.839和0.881(p<0.000),截止值与文献相当(MDF=34.35vs32)和(里尔=0.475vs0.450)。ABIC的鉴别力(p=0.58),GAHS(p=0.16),MELD-Na(p=0.61)不显著。
    结论:我们获得了一个新的预后评分,用于评估AH的30天死亡率,其中包括炎症标志物(CRP,发烧)和肌肉减少症(CHI)的标志物以及肝功能障碍的参数(总胆红素和PT)。在奉献的预后模型中,MDF和里尔得分代表了我们的研究,而ABIC,GAHS和MELD-Na没有达到统计学意义。我们的评分通过添加CRP而独特,这可能被证明是AH严重程度分层的有用工具。
    BACKGROUND: Harmful alcohol consumption is one of the leading risk factors for global disease burden and injury condition, causing death and disability early in life, with over 3 million deaths worldwide every year. Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a clinical syndrome characterized by hepatic failure with recent onset of jaundice, consequence of a heavy chronic alcohol drinking. The disease severity ranges from mild to severe cases, with high short-term mortality. Individual variety regarding disease outcome and therapeutic response complicates the prognosis stratification. Thus, novel parameters and continuously sought for a better disease outcome assessment.
    OBJECTIVE: To highlight new parameters that accurately assess 30-day mortality (short-term) in patients with AH and to develop a new severity score that uses readily available parameters accessible to any clinician.
    METHODS: This is a prospective study on patients diagnosed with AH between 2022-2023. We identified 70 patients with AH who met the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) criteria for diagnosis after exclusion of patients with severe comorbidities that could influence disease outcome. Clinical and paraclinical parameters were assessed at least on admission and day 7. Mortality at 30-day was considered the endpoint. The database was composed using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation) and the data was analyzed using SPSS Statistics version 26 (IBM Corporation).
    RESULTS: A total of 70 patients were included in the study with a mortality at 30-days of 22.9% (n=16). The independent variables associated with increased short-term mortality identified using the univariate analysis were: fever, infection, esophageal varices, prothrombin time PT, INR, total bilirubin, CRP, LDH and CHI (creatinine height index). Using multivariate regression we determined a novel prognostic score, with criterion for retaining variable being p<0.05. Total bilirubin day 7, CRP, PT, fever and CHI resulted after the analysis and were included into a new mortality score. Our Prognostic Model Score obtained an area under the ROC of 0.950 (95% CI: 0.890-0.980, p<0.001), with a cut-off value of 13.75 (Sn=87.5%, Sp=91%). Regarding the consecrated prognostic scores, MDF and Lille score obtained good AUROCs=0.839 and 0.881, respectively (p<0.000), with cut-off values comparable with literature (MDF=34.35 vs 32) and (Lille=0.475 vs 0.450). The discriminatory power for ABIC (p=0.58), GAHS (p=0.16), MELD-Na (p=0.61) was not significant.
    CONCLUSIONS: We obtained a new prognostic score for the assessment of 30-day mortality in AH that includes markers of inflammation (CRP, fever) and markers of sarcopenia (CHI) along parameters of hepatic disfunction (total bilirubin and PT). Amongst consecrated prognostic models, MDF and Lille scores were representative for our study, while ABIC, GAHS and MELD-Na did not attain statistical significance. Our score is unique by the addition of CRP and this could prove to be a useful tool in AH severity stratification.
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