■血液透析的终末期肾病(ESRD)中心血管疾病(CVD)的危险因素仍未完全了解。在这项研究中,我们开发并验证了预测血液透析患者CVD的临床纵向模型,并采用孟德尔随机化来评估因果6研究,包括468名血液透析患者,每三个月评估一次生化指标。将广义线性混合(GLM)预测模型应用于纵向临床数据。使用校准曲线和接受者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)来评估模型的性能。应用Kaplan-Meier曲线验证所选危险因素对CVD发生概率的影响。CVD的全基因组关联研究(GWAS)数据(n=218,792,101,866例),终末期肾病(ESRD,n=16,405,326例),糖尿病(n=202,046,9,889例),肌酐(n=7,810),和尿酸(UA,n=109,029)是从大型开放式GWAS项目获得的。逆方差加权MR作为估计因果关联的主要分析,我们进行了几项敏感性分析,以评估多效性并排除具有潜在多效性效应的变异体.
■GLM模型的AUC为0.93(训练集和验证集的准确率为93.9%和93.1%,敏感性为0.95和0.94,特异性为0.87和0.86)。最终的临床纵向模型由5个危险因素组成,包括年龄,糖尿病,ipth,肌酐,UA。此外,预测的CVD反应还允许各年龄的Kaplan-Meier曲线之间的显著差异(p<0.05),糖尿病,ipth,和肌酐亚分类。MR分析表明,糖尿病在CVD(β=0.088,p<0.0001)和ESRD(β=0.26,p=0.007)的风险中具有因果关系。反过来,发现ESRD在糖尿病风险中具有因果作用(β=0.027,p=0.013)。此外,肌酐在ESRD风险中具有因果关系(β=4.42,p=0.01).
■结果显示,糖尿病,和低水平的ipth,肌酐,和UA是血液透析患者CVD的重要危险因素,糖尿病在ESRD和CVD之间起着重要的桥梁作用。
UNASSIGNED: The risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) with hemodialysis remain not fully understood. In this study, we developed and validated a clinical-longitudinal model for predicting CVD in patients with hemodialysis, and employed Mendelian randomization to evaluate the causal 6study included 468 hemodialysis patients, and biochemical parameters were evaluated every three months. A generalized linear mixed (GLM) predictive model was applied to longitudinal clinical data. Calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to verify the effect of selected risk factors on the probability of CVD. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data for CVD (n = 218,792,101,866 cases), end-stage renal disease (ESRD, n = 16,405, 326 cases), diabetes (n = 202,046, 9,889 cases), creatinine (n = 7,810), and uric acid (UA, n = 109,029) were obtained from the large-open GWAS project. The inverse-variance weighted MR was used as the main analysis to estimate the causal associations, and several sensitivity analyses were performed to assess pleiotropy and exclude variants with potential pleiotropic effects.
UNASSIGNED: The AUCs of the GLM model was 0.93 (with accuracy rates of 93.9% and 93.1% for the training set and validation set, sensitivity of 0.95 and 0.94, specificity of 0.87 and 0.86). The final clinical-longitudinal model consisted of 5 risk factors, including age, diabetes, ipth, creatinine, and UA. Furthermore, the predicted CVD response also allowed for significant (p < 0.05) discrimination between the Kaplan-Meier curves of each age, diabetes, ipth, and creatinine subclassification. MR analysis indicated that diabetes had a causal role in risk of CVD (β = 0.088, p < 0.0001) and ESRD (β = 0.26, p = 0.007). In turn, ESRD was found to have a causal role in risk of diabetes (β = 0.027, p = 0.013). Additionally, creatinine exhibited a causal role in the risk of ESRD (β = 4.42, p = 0.01).
UNASSIGNED: The results showed that old age, diabetes, and low level of ipth, creatinine, and UA were important risk factors for CVD in hemodialysis patients, and diabetes played an important bridging role in the link between ESRD and CVD.