causal factors

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    血液透析的终末期肾病(ESRD)中心血管疾病(CVD)的危险因素仍未完全了解。在这项研究中,我们开发并验证了预测血液透析患者CVD的临床纵向模型,并采用孟德尔随机化来评估因果6研究,包括468名血液透析患者,每三个月评估一次生化指标。将广义线性混合(GLM)预测模型应用于纵向临床数据。使用校准曲线和接受者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)来评估模型的性能。应用Kaplan-Meier曲线验证所选危险因素对CVD发生概率的影响。CVD的全基因组关联研究(GWAS)数据(n=218,792,101,866例),终末期肾病(ESRD,n=16,405,326例),糖尿病(n=202,046,9,889例),肌酐(n=7,810),和尿酸(UA,n=109,029)是从大型开放式GWAS项目获得的。逆方差加权MR作为估计因果关联的主要分析,我们进行了几项敏感性分析,以评估多效性并排除具有潜在多效性效应的变异体.
    GLM模型的AUC为0.93(训练集和验证集的准确率为93.9%和93.1%,敏感性为0.95和0.94,特异性为0.87和0.86)。最终的临床纵向模型由5个危险因素组成,包括年龄,糖尿病,ipth,肌酐,UA。此外,预测的CVD反应还允许各年龄的Kaplan-Meier曲线之间的显著差异(p<0.05),糖尿病,ipth,和肌酐亚分类。MR分析表明,糖尿病在CVD(β=0.088,p<0.0001)和ESRD(β=0.26,p=0.007)的风险中具有因果关系。反过来,发现ESRD在糖尿病风险中具有因果作用(β=0.027,p=0.013)。此外,肌酐在ESRD风险中具有因果关系(β=4.42,p=0.01).
    结果显示,糖尿病,和低水平的ipth,肌酐,和UA是血液透析患者CVD的重要危险因素,糖尿病在ESRD和CVD之间起着重要的桥梁作用。
    UNASSIGNED: The risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) with hemodialysis remain not fully understood. In this study, we developed and validated a clinical-longitudinal model for predicting CVD in patients with hemodialysis, and employed Mendelian randomization to evaluate the causal 6study included 468 hemodialysis patients, and biochemical parameters were evaluated every three months. A generalized linear mixed (GLM) predictive model was applied to longitudinal clinical data. Calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to verify the effect of selected risk factors on the probability of CVD. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data for CVD (n = 218,792,101,866 cases), end-stage renal disease (ESRD, n = 16,405, 326 cases), diabetes (n = 202,046, 9,889 cases), creatinine (n = 7,810), and uric acid (UA, n = 109,029) were obtained from the large-open GWAS project. The inverse-variance weighted MR was used as the main analysis to estimate the causal associations, and several sensitivity analyses were performed to assess pleiotropy and exclude variants with potential pleiotropic effects.
    UNASSIGNED: The AUCs of the GLM model was 0.93 (with accuracy rates of 93.9% and 93.1% for the training set and validation set, sensitivity of 0.95 and 0.94, specificity of 0.87 and 0.86). The final clinical-longitudinal model consisted of 5 risk factors, including age, diabetes, ipth, creatinine, and UA. Furthermore, the predicted CVD response also allowed for significant (p < 0.05) discrimination between the Kaplan-Meier curves of each age, diabetes, ipth, and creatinine subclassification. MR analysis indicated that diabetes had a causal role in risk of CVD (β = 0.088, p < 0.0001) and ESRD (β = 0.26, p = 0.007). In turn, ESRD was found to have a causal role in risk of diabetes (β = 0.027, p = 0.013). Additionally, creatinine exhibited a causal role in the risk of ESRD (β = 4.42, p = 0.01).
    UNASSIGNED: The results showed that old age, diabetes, and low level of ipth, creatinine, and UA were important risk factors for CVD in hemodialysis patients, and diabetes played an important bridging role in the link between ESRD and CVD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去的30年中,已经进行了许多大规模和纵向的精神病学研究工作,以提高我们对精神健康状况的理解和治疗。然而,尽管研究界付出了巨大的努力和大量的资金,我们仍然缺乏对大多数精神健康障碍的因果理解。因此,大多数精神病诊断和治疗仍然在症状经验水平上运作,而不是衡量或解决根本原因。这导致了一种试错方法,该方法与临床结果不佳的潜在因果关系不太吻合。在这里,我们讨论一个源于对因果因素的探索的研究框架,而不是症状分组,应用于大规模多维数据可以帮助解决当前心理健康研究面临的一些挑战,反过来,临床结果。首先,我们描述了一些挑战和复杂性支撑寻找精神健康状况的因果驱动因素,侧重于目前评估和诊断精神疾病的方法,症状和原因之间的多对多映射,寻找异质性症状组的生物标志物,和倍数,动态地相互作用影响我们心理的变量。其次,我们提出了一个因果导向的框架在两个大规模的数据集的背景下产生的青少年脑认知发展(ABCD)研究,美国最大的大脑发育和儿童健康长期研究,以及全球思维项目,这是世界上最大的心理健康档案数据库,以及来自全球140万人的生活背景信息。最后,我们描述了如何分析和机器学习方法,如聚类和因果推理,可以在这些数据集上使用,以帮助阐明对精神健康状况的更多因果理解,从而实现诊断方法和预防性解决方案,解决心理健康挑战的根本原因。
    Over the past 30 years there have been numerous large-scale and longitudinal psychiatric research efforts to improve our understanding and treatment of mental health conditions. However, despite the huge effort by the research community and considerable funding, we still lack a causal understanding of most mental health disorders. Consequently, the majority of psychiatric diagnosis and treatment still operates at the level of symptomatic experience, rather than measuring or addressing root causes. This results in a trial-and-error approach that is a poor fit to underlying causality with poor clinical outcomes. Here we discuss how a research framework that originates from exploration of causal factors, rather than symptom groupings, applied to large scale multi-dimensional data can help address some of the current challenges facing mental health research and, in turn, clinical outcomes. Firstly, we describe some of the challenges and complexities underpinning the search for causal drivers of mental health conditions, focusing on current approaches to the assessment and diagnosis of psychiatric disorders, the many-to-many mappings between symptoms and causes, the search for biomarkers of heterogeneous symptom groups, and the multiple, dynamically interacting variables that influence our psychology. Secondly, we put forward a causal-orientated framework in the context of two large-scale datasets arising from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, the largest long-term study of brain development and child health in the United States, and the Global Mind Project which is the largest database in the world of mental health profiles along with life context information from 1.4 million people across the globe. Finally, we describe how analytical and machine learning approaches such as clustering and causal inference can be used on datasets such as these to help elucidate a more causal understanding of mental health conditions to enable diagnostic approaches and preventative solutions that tackle mental health challenges at their root cause.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    产后抑郁症(PPD)是一种与父母分娩后有关的抑郁发作,这不仅会给父母带来各种症状,还会影响儿童的发育。潜在危险因素与PPD之间的因果关系仍在全面阐明。
    进行了连锁不平衡评分回归(LDSC)分析,以筛选每个工具变体(IV)的遗传力,并计算有效因果因子与PPD之间的遗传相关性。寻找多种潜在危险因素对PPD发病率的因果效应,应用了逆方差加权(IVW)方法的随机效应。敏感性分析,包括加权中位数,MR-Egger回归,Cochrane的Q测试,和MR多态剩余和和异常值(MR-PRESSO),进行检测潜在的孟德尔随机化(MR)假设违规。进行多变量MR(MVMR)以控制潜在的多重共线性。
    本研究共调查了40个潜在的危险因素。LDSC回归分析报告了潜在性状与PPD的显着遗传相关性。MR分析显示,较高的体重指数(BMI)(Benjamini和Hochberg(BH)校正p=0.05),重度抑郁症(MD)(BH校正p=5.04E-19),和精神分裂症(SCZ)(BH校正p=1.64E-05)与PPD的风险增加有关,而第一胎年龄增加(BH校正p=2.11E-04),第一次性交年龄较大(BH校正p=3.02E-15),税前平均家庭总收入增加(BH校正p=4.57E-02),受教育年限的增加(BH校正p=1.47E-11)导致PPD的概率降低。MVMR分析显示,MD(p=3.25E-08)和首次出生时的年龄(p=8.18E-04)仍然与PPD风险增加相关。
    在我们的MR研究中,我们发现了多种危险因素,包括MD和第一次出生时的年龄较小,是PPD的有害因果危险因素。
    UNASSIGNED: Postpartum depression (PPD) is a type of depressive episode related to parents after childbirth, which causes a variety of symptoms not only for parents but also affects the development of children. The causal relationship between potential risk factors and PPD remains comprehensively elucidated.
    UNASSIGNED: Linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) analysis was conducted to screen the heritability of each instrumental variant (IV) and to calculate the genetic correlations between effective causal factors and PPD. To search for the causal effect of multiple potential risk factors on the incidence of PPD, random effects of the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method were applied. Sensitivity analyses, including weighted median, MR-Egger regression, Cochrane\'s Q test, and MR Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO), were performed to detect potential Mendelian randomization (MR) assumption violations. Multivariable MR (MVMR) was conducted to control potential multicollinearity.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 40 potential risk factors were investigated in this study. LDSC regression analysis reported a significant genetic correlation of potential traits with PPD. MR analysis showed that higher body mass index (BMI) (Benjamini and Hochberg (BH) corrected p = 0.05), major depression (MD) (BH corrected p = 5.04E-19), and schizophrenia (SCZ) (BH corrected p = 1.64E-05) were associated with the increased risk of PPD, whereas increased age at first birth (BH corrected p = 2.11E-04), older age at first sexual intercourse (BH corrected p = 3.02E-15), increased average total household income before tax (BH corrected p = 4.57E-02), and increased years of schooling (BH corrected p = 1.47E-11) led to a decreased probability of PPD. MVMR analysis suggested that MD (p = 3.25E-08) and older age at first birth (p = 8.18E-04) were still associated with an increased risk of PPD.
    UNASSIGNED: In our MR study, we found multiple risk factors, including MD and younger age at first birth, to be deleterious causal risk factors for PPD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    现有的基于深度学习的故障预测算法取得了良好的预测性能。这些算法公平地对待所有特征,并且假设设备故障的进展在整个生命周期中是固定的。事实上,每个特征对故障预测的准确性有不同的贡献,设备故障的进展是非平稳的。更具体地说,捕获故障首次出现的时间点对于提高故障预测的准确性更为重要。此外,设备不同故障的进度差异很大。因此,考虑到特征差异和时间信息,我们提出了一个因果因素感知的注意力网络,CaFANet,物联网中的设备故障预测。实验结果和性能分析证实了该算法相对于传统机器学习方法的优越性,预测精度提高了15.3%。
    Existing fault prediction algorithms based on deep learning have achieved good prediction performance. These algorithms treat all features fairly and assume that the progression of the equipment faults is stationary throughout the entire lifecycle. In fact, each feature has a different contribution to the accuracy of fault prediction, and the progress of equipment faults is non-stationary. More specifically, capturing the time point at which a fault first appears is more important for improving the accuracy of fault prediction. Moreover, the progress of the different faults of equipment varies significantly. Therefore, taking feature differences and time information into consideration, we propose a Causal-Factors-Aware Attention Network, CaFANet, for equipment fault prediction in the Internet of Things. Experimental results and performance analysis confirm the superiority of the proposed algorithm over traditional machine learning methods with prediction accuracy improved by up to 15.3%.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    事故的发生是由于社会技术系统各个层面的缺陷之间的一系列相互作用。量化上层和下层之间的关系有助于制定事故对策,重点关注重要的组织潜在条件。本研究使用SEM探讨了加纳矿山内事故的因果因素之间的关系。使用HFACS-GMI对事件报告分析获得的数据进行了量化,以便在SEM软件中使用,因为SEM计算不能使用0/1描述来完成。该研究还测试了五个假设,包括HFACS模型的基本假设。案例研究结果表明,组织因素显着影响工作场所/个人条件;上层因果类别不仅影响相邻的直接下层因果类别,并且在具有特定水平的因果类别之间存在部分相关性。基于LISERL的SEM模型,编制了事故致因路径图。该图揭示了领导力的缺陷,技术环境和不良生理/精神状态是矿山事故原因的中介因素。作业过程在组织因素层具有突出的地位,是整个事故系统中必不可少的因素。因此,事故对策应着眼于解决操作缺陷。
    Accidents occur due to a series of interactions between deficiencies within the various levels of a sociotechnical system. Quantifying the relationship between upper and lower levels helps develop accident countermeasures focusing on significant organisational latent conditions. This study explores the relationship between the causal factors of accidents within Ghanaian mines using SEM. Data obtained from the analysis of incident reports using HFACS-GMI were quantified to enable its use in the SEM software, as SEM calculations cannot be done using a 0/1 description. The study also tests five hypotheses, including the basic assumption of the HFACS model. The case study results showed that organisational factors significantly influence workplace/individual conditions; upper causal categories do not only influence adjacent immediate lower causal categories, and partial correlations exist between causal categories with a particular level. Based on the SEM model from LISERL, an accident causation path diagram was developed. The diagram reveals that leadership flaws, the technological environment and adverse physiological/mental states were the mediating factors in accident causation within the mines. The operational process has a prominent position in the organisational factors tier and is an essential factor in the entire accident system. Therefore, accident countermeasures should be directed to addressing operational deficiencies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自1990年代以来,软木斑病已经影响了亚洲梨的果实,并且近年来变得越来越严重,受影响的品种和地区越来越多。受影响水果的商品价值大幅下降,造成严重的经济损失。梨果实的软木斑病是一种生理疾病,造成影响的因素相对复杂。对软木塞斑病病因的研究尚处于早期阶段,因此,需要进一步的研究来阐明该疾病的潜在机制.在这次审查中,总结了与亚洲梨果实软木斑病发病率相关因素的最新知识,包括果实的生长发育,水果营养状况,和环境因素。概述了潜在的预防措施和未来研究的重点。
    Cork spot disorder has affected the fruit of Asian pear since the 1990s and has become serious in recent years with increasingly affected cultivars and areas. The commodity value of affected fruit is greatly decreased, resulting in severe economic losses. Cork spot disorder of pear fruit is a physiological disorder, and the factors responsible are relatively complex. Research on the cause of cork spot disorder is still at an early stage and, thus, further investigations are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanism of the disorder. In this review, current knowledge of the factors associated with the incidence of cork spot disorder in Asian pear fruit is summarized, including fruit growth and development, fruit nutrient status, and environmental factors. Potential preventive measures and priorities for future research are outlined.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:确定实施急诊科临床应急响应系统(EDCERS)对住院病情恶化事件的影响,并确定影响因素。
    方法:EDCERS在澳大利亚地区医院实施,整合单一参数跟踪和触发标准,以实现护理升级,和紧急情况,专科和重症监护临床医生对患者恶化的反应。在这项受控的事后研究中,经历恶化事件的患者的电子病历(快速反应电话,从急诊科(ED)入院后72小时内对病房的心脏骤停或计划外重症监护入院进行了审查。使用经过验证的人为因素框架评估导致恶化事件的原因因素。
    结果:实施EDCERS减少了急诊入院后72小时内住院患者恶化事件的数量,其中ED患者恶化失败或延迟反应是一个原因。住院恶化事件的总体发生率没有变化。
    结论:本研究支持在ED中更广泛地实施快速反应系统,以改善恶化患者的管理。应使用量身定制的实施策略来实现ED快速反应系统的成功和可持续吸收,并改善恶化患者的预后。
    OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact implementation of Emergency Department Clinical Emergency Response System (EDCERS) on inpatient deterioration events and identify contributing causal factors.
    METHODS: EDCERS was implemented in an Australian regional hospital, integrating a single parameter track and trigger criteria for escalation of care, and emergency, specialty and critical care clinician response to patient deterioration. In this controlled pre-post study, electronic medical records of patients who experienced a deterioration event (rapid response call, cardiac arrest or unplanned intensive care admission) on the ward within 72 h of admission from the emergency department (ED) were reviewed. Causal factors contributing to the deteriorating event were assessed using a validated human factors framework.
    RESULTS: Implementation of EDCERS reduced the number of inpatient deterioration events within 72 h of emergency admission with failure or delayed response to ED patient deterioration as a causal factor. There was no change in the overall rate of inpatient deterioration events.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study supports wider implementation of rapid response systems in the ED to improve management of deteriorating patients. Tailored implementation strategies should be used to achieve successful and sustainable uptake of ED rapid response systems and improve outcomes in deteriorating patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    处理敏感信息的信息技术设备(ITE)可能会因无意的电磁辐射而损害其安全性。适当评估潜在妥协的可能性依赖于射频(RF)工程专业知识-特别是,需要了解相关的因果因素及其相互关系。在文献中已经发现了可能引起可能导致ITE损害的无意电磁发射的几个因素。本文证实了以前工作中报告的因果因素列表,将这些因素归类为属于威胁,脆弱性,或影响,并建立了脆弱性因素的解释性结构模型。使用了由RF工程师焦点小组组成的参与式建模方法。由此产生的层次结构模型显示了因素之间的关系,并说明了它们的相对意义。本文得出的结论是,所得到的模型可以激发对可以纳入RF工程师评估过程的因素的结构关系的更深入的理解。建议今后的工作领域。
    Information technology equipment (ITE) processing sensitive information can have its security compromised by unintentional electromagnetic radiation. Appropriately assessing likelihood of a potential compromise relies on radio frequency (RF) engineering expertise-specifically, requiring knowledge of the associated causal factors and their interrelationships. Several factors that can cause unintentional electromagnetic emanations that can lead to the compromise of ITE have been found in the literature. This paper confirms the list of causal factors reported in previous work, categorizes the factors as belonging to threat, vulnerability, or impact, and develops an interpretive structural model of the vulnerability factors. A participatory modelling approach was used consisting of focus groups of RF engineers. The resulting hierarchical structural model shows the relationships between factors and illustrates their relative significance. The paper concludes that the resulting model can motivate a deeper understanding of the structural relationship of the factors that can be incorporated in the RF engineers\' assessment process. Areas of future work are suggested.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    远程口译(DI)是一种以技术为媒介的口译形式,由于对多语言会议的高需求,直播节目,和公共服务部门。当前的研究综合了DI文献,以建立一个表示DI中认知负荷的构造和测量的框架。确定了两个主要的研究领域,即,认知负荷的因果因素和测量方法。确定并审查了许多可引起DI认知负荷变化的因果因素。这些包括来自任务的因素(例如,演示模式),环境(例如,展位类型),和口译员(例如,技术意识)。此外,确定并调查了四种测量DI认知负荷的方法:主观方法,性能方法,分析方法,和心理生理方法。一起,因果因素和测量方法为描述和量化DI中的认知负荷提供了多种方法。此多维框架可用作本科和研究生水平的口译课程中的教学设计工具。它还可以为教育心理学,语言学习和评估的其他领域提供启示。
    Distance Interpreting (DI) is a form of technology-mediated interpreting which has gained traction due to the high demand for multilingual conferences, live-streaming programs, and public service sectors. The current study synthesized the DI literature to build a framework that represents the construct and measurement of cognitive load in DI. Two major areas of research were identified, i.e., causal factors and methods of measuring cognitive load. A number of causal factors that can induce change in cognitive load in DI were identified and reviewed. These included factors derived from tasks (e.g., mode of presentation), environment (e.g., booth type), and interpreters (e.g., technology awareness). In addition, four methods for measuring cognitive load in DI were identified and surveyed: subjective methods, performance methods, analytical methods, and psycho-physiological methods. Together, the causal factors and measurement methods provide a multifarious approach to delineating and quantifying cognitive load in DI. This multidimensional framework can be applied as a tool for pedagogical design in interpreting programs at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. It can also provide implications for other fields of educational psychology and language learning and assessment.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Age-related hearing impairment (ARHI), also referred to as presbycusis, is the most common sensory impairment seen in the elderly. As our cochlea, the peripheral organ of hearing, ages, we tend to experience a decline in hearing and are at greater risk of cochlear sensory-neural cell degeneration and exacerbated age-related hearing impairments, e.g., gradual hearing loss, deterioration in speech comprehension (especially in noisy environments), difficulty in the localization sound sources, and ringing sensations in the ears. However, the aging process does not affect people uniformly; nor, in fact, does the aging process appear to be uniform even within an individual. Here, we outline recent research into chronological cochlear age in healthy people, and exacerbated hearing impairments during aging due to both extrinsic factors including noise and ototoxic medication, and intrinsic factors such as genetic predisposition, epigenetic factors, and aging. We review our current understanding of molecular pathways mediating ARHL and discuss recent discoveries in experimental hearing restoration and future prospects.
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