causal factors

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    血液透析的终末期肾病(ESRD)中心血管疾病(CVD)的危险因素仍未完全了解。在这项研究中,我们开发并验证了预测血液透析患者CVD的临床纵向模型,并采用孟德尔随机化来评估因果6研究,包括468名血液透析患者,每三个月评估一次生化指标。将广义线性混合(GLM)预测模型应用于纵向临床数据。使用校准曲线和接受者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)来评估模型的性能。应用Kaplan-Meier曲线验证所选危险因素对CVD发生概率的影响。CVD的全基因组关联研究(GWAS)数据(n=218,792,101,866例),终末期肾病(ESRD,n=16,405,326例),糖尿病(n=202,046,9,889例),肌酐(n=7,810),和尿酸(UA,n=109,029)是从大型开放式GWAS项目获得的。逆方差加权MR作为估计因果关联的主要分析,我们进行了几项敏感性分析,以评估多效性并排除具有潜在多效性效应的变异体.
    GLM模型的AUC为0.93(训练集和验证集的准确率为93.9%和93.1%,敏感性为0.95和0.94,特异性为0.87和0.86)。最终的临床纵向模型由5个危险因素组成,包括年龄,糖尿病,ipth,肌酐,UA。此外,预测的CVD反应还允许各年龄的Kaplan-Meier曲线之间的显著差异(p<0.05),糖尿病,ipth,和肌酐亚分类。MR分析表明,糖尿病在CVD(β=0.088,p<0.0001)和ESRD(β=0.26,p=0.007)的风险中具有因果关系。反过来,发现ESRD在糖尿病风险中具有因果作用(β=0.027,p=0.013)。此外,肌酐在ESRD风险中具有因果关系(β=4.42,p=0.01).
    结果显示,糖尿病,和低水平的ipth,肌酐,和UA是血液透析患者CVD的重要危险因素,糖尿病在ESRD和CVD之间起着重要的桥梁作用。
    UNASSIGNED: The risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) with hemodialysis remain not fully understood. In this study, we developed and validated a clinical-longitudinal model for predicting CVD in patients with hemodialysis, and employed Mendelian randomization to evaluate the causal 6study included 468 hemodialysis patients, and biochemical parameters were evaluated every three months. A generalized linear mixed (GLM) predictive model was applied to longitudinal clinical data. Calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to verify the effect of selected risk factors on the probability of CVD. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data for CVD (n = 218,792,101,866 cases), end-stage renal disease (ESRD, n = 16,405, 326 cases), diabetes (n = 202,046, 9,889 cases), creatinine (n = 7,810), and uric acid (UA, n = 109,029) were obtained from the large-open GWAS project. The inverse-variance weighted MR was used as the main analysis to estimate the causal associations, and several sensitivity analyses were performed to assess pleiotropy and exclude variants with potential pleiotropic effects.
    UNASSIGNED: The AUCs of the GLM model was 0.93 (with accuracy rates of 93.9% and 93.1% for the training set and validation set, sensitivity of 0.95 and 0.94, specificity of 0.87 and 0.86). The final clinical-longitudinal model consisted of 5 risk factors, including age, diabetes, ipth, creatinine, and UA. Furthermore, the predicted CVD response also allowed for significant (p < 0.05) discrimination between the Kaplan-Meier curves of each age, diabetes, ipth, and creatinine subclassification. MR analysis indicated that diabetes had a causal role in risk of CVD (β = 0.088, p < 0.0001) and ESRD (β = 0.26, p = 0.007). In turn, ESRD was found to have a causal role in risk of diabetes (β = 0.027, p = 0.013). Additionally, creatinine exhibited a causal role in the risk of ESRD (β = 4.42, p = 0.01).
    UNASSIGNED: The results showed that old age, diabetes, and low level of ipth, creatinine, and UA were important risk factors for CVD in hemodialysis patients, and diabetes played an important bridging role in the link between ESRD and CVD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    产后抑郁症(PPD)是一种与父母分娩后有关的抑郁发作,这不仅会给父母带来各种症状,还会影响儿童的发育。潜在危险因素与PPD之间的因果关系仍在全面阐明。
    进行了连锁不平衡评分回归(LDSC)分析,以筛选每个工具变体(IV)的遗传力,并计算有效因果因子与PPD之间的遗传相关性。寻找多种潜在危险因素对PPD发病率的因果效应,应用了逆方差加权(IVW)方法的随机效应。敏感性分析,包括加权中位数,MR-Egger回归,Cochrane的Q测试,和MR多态剩余和和异常值(MR-PRESSO),进行检测潜在的孟德尔随机化(MR)假设违规。进行多变量MR(MVMR)以控制潜在的多重共线性。
    本研究共调查了40个潜在的危险因素。LDSC回归分析报告了潜在性状与PPD的显着遗传相关性。MR分析显示,较高的体重指数(BMI)(Benjamini和Hochberg(BH)校正p=0.05),重度抑郁症(MD)(BH校正p=5.04E-19),和精神分裂症(SCZ)(BH校正p=1.64E-05)与PPD的风险增加有关,而第一胎年龄增加(BH校正p=2.11E-04),第一次性交年龄较大(BH校正p=3.02E-15),税前平均家庭总收入增加(BH校正p=4.57E-02),受教育年限的增加(BH校正p=1.47E-11)导致PPD的概率降低。MVMR分析显示,MD(p=3.25E-08)和首次出生时的年龄(p=8.18E-04)仍然与PPD风险增加相关。
    在我们的MR研究中,我们发现了多种危险因素,包括MD和第一次出生时的年龄较小,是PPD的有害因果危险因素。
    UNASSIGNED: Postpartum depression (PPD) is a type of depressive episode related to parents after childbirth, which causes a variety of symptoms not only for parents but also affects the development of children. The causal relationship between potential risk factors and PPD remains comprehensively elucidated.
    UNASSIGNED: Linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) analysis was conducted to screen the heritability of each instrumental variant (IV) and to calculate the genetic correlations between effective causal factors and PPD. To search for the causal effect of multiple potential risk factors on the incidence of PPD, random effects of the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method were applied. Sensitivity analyses, including weighted median, MR-Egger regression, Cochrane\'s Q test, and MR Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO), were performed to detect potential Mendelian randomization (MR) assumption violations. Multivariable MR (MVMR) was conducted to control potential multicollinearity.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 40 potential risk factors were investigated in this study. LDSC regression analysis reported a significant genetic correlation of potential traits with PPD. MR analysis showed that higher body mass index (BMI) (Benjamini and Hochberg (BH) corrected p = 0.05), major depression (MD) (BH corrected p = 5.04E-19), and schizophrenia (SCZ) (BH corrected p = 1.64E-05) were associated with the increased risk of PPD, whereas increased age at first birth (BH corrected p = 2.11E-04), older age at first sexual intercourse (BH corrected p = 3.02E-15), increased average total household income before tax (BH corrected p = 4.57E-02), and increased years of schooling (BH corrected p = 1.47E-11) led to a decreased probability of PPD. MVMR analysis suggested that MD (p = 3.25E-08) and older age at first birth (p = 8.18E-04) were still associated with an increased risk of PPD.
    UNASSIGNED: In our MR study, we found multiple risk factors, including MD and younger age at first birth, to be deleterious causal risk factors for PPD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:确定实施急诊科临床应急响应系统(EDCERS)对住院病情恶化事件的影响,并确定影响因素。
    方法:EDCERS在澳大利亚地区医院实施,整合单一参数跟踪和触发标准,以实现护理升级,和紧急情况,专科和重症监护临床医生对患者恶化的反应。在这项受控的事后研究中,经历恶化事件的患者的电子病历(快速反应电话,从急诊科(ED)入院后72小时内对病房的心脏骤停或计划外重症监护入院进行了审查。使用经过验证的人为因素框架评估导致恶化事件的原因因素。
    结果:实施EDCERS减少了急诊入院后72小时内住院患者恶化事件的数量,其中ED患者恶化失败或延迟反应是一个原因。住院恶化事件的总体发生率没有变化。
    结论:本研究支持在ED中更广泛地实施快速反应系统,以改善恶化患者的管理。应使用量身定制的实施策略来实现ED快速反应系统的成功和可持续吸收,并改善恶化患者的预后。
    OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact implementation of Emergency Department Clinical Emergency Response System (EDCERS) on inpatient deterioration events and identify contributing causal factors.
    METHODS: EDCERS was implemented in an Australian regional hospital, integrating a single parameter track and trigger criteria for escalation of care, and emergency, specialty and critical care clinician response to patient deterioration. In this controlled pre-post study, electronic medical records of patients who experienced a deterioration event (rapid response call, cardiac arrest or unplanned intensive care admission) on the ward within 72 h of admission from the emergency department (ED) were reviewed. Causal factors contributing to the deteriorating event were assessed using a validated human factors framework.
    RESULTS: Implementation of EDCERS reduced the number of inpatient deterioration events within 72 h of emergency admission with failure or delayed response to ED patient deterioration as a causal factor. There was no change in the overall rate of inpatient deterioration events.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study supports wider implementation of rapid response systems in the ED to improve management of deteriorating patients. Tailored implementation strategies should be used to achieve successful and sustainable uptake of ED rapid response systems and improve outcomes in deteriorating patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The UK Medical Certificate of Stillbirth (MCS) records information relevant to the cause of stillbirth of infants ≥24 weeks\' gestation. A cross-sectional audit demonstrated widespread inaccuracies in MCS completion in 2009 in North West England. A repeat study was conducted to assess whether practice had improved following introduction of a regional care pathway.
    266 MCS issued in 14 North West England obstetric units during 2015 were studied retrospectively. Cause of death was assigned following review of information available at the time of MCS completion. This was compared to that documented on the MCS, and to data from 2009.
    Twenty-three certificates were excluded (20 inadequate data, 3 late miscarriages). 118/243 (49%) MCS contained major errors. Agreement between the MCS and adjudicated cause of stillbirth was fair (Kappa 0.31; 95% CI 0.24, 0.38) and unchanged from 2009 (0.29). In 2015, excluding 34 terminations of pregnancy, the proportion of MCSs documenting \"unexplained\" stillbirths (113/211; 54%) was reduced compared to 2009 (158/213; 74%); causality could be assigned after case note review in 78% cases. Recognition of fetal growth restriction (FGR) as a cause of stillbirth improved (2015: 30/211; 14% vs 2009: 1/213; 0.5%), although 71% cases were missed. 47% MCSs following termination of pregnancy documented an iatrogenic primary cause of death.
    Completion of MCSs remains inaccurate, particularly in recognition of FGR as a cause of stillbirth. Detailed case note review before issuing the MCS could dramatically improve the usefulness of included information; evaluation of practitioner education programmes/internal feedback systems are recommended.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    What are the primary causes of severe male factor infertility?
    Although 40% of all patients showed primary causes of infertility, which could be subdivided into three groups based on the severity of their effect, ~75% of oligozoospermia cases remained idiopathic.
    There are few large-scale epidemiological studies analyzing the causes of male factor infertility.
    A prospective clinical-epidemiological study was conducted at the Andrology Centre, Tartu University Hospital between 2005 and 2013, recruiting male partners of couples failing to conceive a child for over ≥12 months. Among 8518 patients, 1737 (20.4%) were diagnosed with severe male factor infertility. A reference group of fertile controls was comprised of 325 partners of pregnant women.
    The mean age of infertility patients and fertile controls was 33.2 ± 7.3 and 31.7 ± 6.3 years, respectively. All participants were examined using a standardized andrology workup, accompanied by a structured medical interview. Hormonal analysis included serum FSH, LH and testosterone. Semen quality was determined in accordance to the World Health Organization recommendations. Cases with spermatozoa concentrations of ≤5 million/ml were screened for chromosomal aberrations and Y-chromosomal microdeletions.
    The primary cause of infertility was defined for 695 of 1737 patients (~40%). The analyzed causal factors could be divided into absolute (secondary hypogonadism, genetic causes, seminal tract obstruction), severe (oncological diseases, severe sexual dysfunction) and plausible causal factors (congenital anomalies in uro-genital tract, acquired or secondary testicular damage). The latter were also detected for 11 (3.4%) men with proven fertility (diagnoses: unilateral cryptorchidism, testis cancer, orchitis, mumps orchitis). The causal factors behind the most severe forms of impaired spermatogenesis were relatively well understood; causes were assigned: for aspermia in 46/46 cases (100%), for azoospermia in 321/388 cases (82.7%), and for cryptozoospermia in 54/130 cases (41.5%). In contrast, 75% of oligozoospermia cases remained unexplained. The main cause of aspermia was severe sexual dysfunction (71.7% of aspermia patients). Azoospermia patients accounted for 86.4% of all cases diagnosed with secondary hypogonadism and 97.1% of patients with seminal tract obstruction. Of patients with a known genetic factor, 87.4% had extreme infertility (azoo-, crypto- or aspermia). The prevalence of congenital anomalies in the uro-genital tract was not clearly correlated with the severity of impaired sperm production. Previously defined \'potential contributing factors\' varicocele and leukocytospermia were excluded as the primary causes of male infertility. However, their incidence was >2-fold higher (31.0 vs 13.5% and 16.1 vs 7.4%; P < 0.001) in the idiopathic infertility group compared to controls. In addition, the proportions of overweight (or obese) patients and patients suffering from a chronic disease were significantly increased in almost all of the patient subgroups.
    The study included only subjects with reduced total spermatozoa counts. Thus, these findings cannot be automatically applied to all male factor infertility cases.
    The novel insights and improved clarity achieved in the comprehensive analysis regarding the absolute, causative and plausible factors behind male infertility, as well as the \'potential contributing factors\', will be valuable tools in updating the current clinical guidelines. The study highlights knowledge gaps and reiterates an urgent need to uncover the causes and mechanisms behind, and potential treatments of, oligozoospermic cases, representing the majority of idiopathic infertility patients (86.3%).
    The project was financed by the EU through the ERDF, project HAPPY PREGNANCY, no. 3.2.0701.12-004 (M.P., M.L.) and the Estonian Research Council: grants PUT181 (M.P.) and IUT34-12 (M.L.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. We have no competing interests to declare. TRAIL  REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.
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