We propose a compartmental model for investigating smoking dynamics in an Italian region (Tuscany). Calibrating the model on local data from 1993 to 2019, we estimate the probabilities of starting and quitting smoking and the probability of smoking relapse. Then, we forecast the evolution of smoking prevalence until 2043 and assess the impact on mortality in terms of attributable deaths. We introduce elements of novelty with respect to previous studies in this field, including a formal definition of the equations governing the model dynamics and a flexible modelling of smoking probabilities based on cubic regression splines. We estimate model parameters by defining a two-step procedure and quantify the sampling variability via a parametric bootstrap. We propose the implementation of cross-validation on a rolling basis and variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis to check the robustness of the results and support our findings. Our results suggest a decrease in smoking prevalence among males and stability among females, over the next two decades. We estimate that, in 2023, 18% of deaths among males and 8% among females are due to smoking. We test the use of the model in assessing the impact on smoking prevalence and mortality of different tobacco control policies, including the tobacco-free generation ban recently introduced in New Zealand.

Studies have shown that vehicle trajectory data are effective for calibrating microsimulation models. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology offers high-resolution 3D data, allowing for detailed mapping of the surrounding environment, including road geometry, roadside infrastructures, and moving objects such as vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians. Unlike other traditional methods of trajectory data collection, LiDAR\'s high-speed data processing, fine angular resolution, high measurement accuracy, and high performance in adverse weather and low-light conditions make it well suited for applications requiring real-time response, such as autonomous vehicles. This research presents a comprehensive framework for integrating LiDAR sensor data into simulation models and their accurate calibration strategies for proactive safety analysis. Vehicle trajectory data were extracted from LiDAR point clouds collected at six urban signalized intersections in Lubbock, Texas, in the USA. Each study intersection was modeled with PTV VISSIM and calibrated to replicate the observed field scenarios. The Directed Brute Force method was used to calibrate two car-following and two lane-change parameters of the Wiedemann 1999 model in VISSIM, resulting in an average accuracy of 92.7%. Rear-end conflicts extracted from the calibrated models combined with a ten-year historical crash dataset were fitted into a Negative Binomial (NB) model to estimate the model\'s parameters. In all the six intersections, rear-end conflict count is a statistically significant predictor (p-value < 0.05) of observed rear-end crash frequency. The outcome of this study provides a framework for the combined use of LiDAR-based vehicle trajectory data, microsimulation, and surrogate safety assessment tools to transportation professionals. This integration allows for more accurate and proactive safety evaluations, which are essential for designing safer transportation systems, effective traffic control strategies, and predicting future congestion problems.

Carbohydrates are the main components of lentils, accounting for more than 60% of their composition. Their content is influenced by genetic factors, with different contents depending on the variety. These compounds have not only been linked to interesting health benefits, but they also have a significant influence on the techno-functional properties of lentil-derived products. In this study, the use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the concentration of total carbohydrate, fibre, starch, total sugars, fructose, sucrose and raffinose was investigated. For this purpose, six different cultivars of macrosperm (n = 37) and microsperm (n = 43) lentils have been analysed, the samples were recorded whole and ground and the suitability of both recording methods were compared. Different spectral and mathematical pre-treatments were evaluated before developing the calibration models using the Modified Partial Least Squares regression method, with a cross-validation and an external validation. The predictive models developed show excellent coefficients of determination (RSQ > 0.9) for the total sugars and fructose, sucrose, and raffinose. The recording of ground samples allowed for obtaining better models for the calibration of starch content (R > 0.8), total sugars and sucrose (R > 0.93), and raffinose (R > 0.91). The results obtained confirm that there is sufficient information in the NIRS spectral region for the development of predictive models for the quantification of the carbohydrate content in lentils.

To better address mechanical behavior, it is necessary to make use of modern tools through which it is possible to run predictions, simulate scenarios, and optimize decisions. sources integration. This will increase the capability of detecting material modifications that forerun damage and/or to forecast the stage in the future when very likely fatigue is initiating and propagating cracks. Early warning outcomes obtained by the synergetic implementation of NDE-based protocols for studying mechanical and fatigue and fracture behavior will enhance the preparedness toward economically sustainable future damage control scenarios. Specifically, these early warning outcomes will be developed in the form of retopologized models to be used coupled with FEA. This paper presents the first stage of calibration and the combination of a system of different sensors (photogrammetry, laser scanning and strain gages) for the creation of volumetric models suitable for the prediction of failure of FEA software. The test objects were two components of car suspension to which strain gauges were attached to measure its deformation under cyclic loading. The calibration of the methodology was carried out using models obtained from photogrammetry and experimental strain gauge measurements.

Modern machine learning has the potential to fundamentally change the way bioprocesses are developed. In particular, horizontal knowledge transfer methods, which seek to exploit data from historical processes to facilitate process development for a new product, provide an opportunity to rethink current workflows. In this work, we first assess the potential of two knowledge transfer approaches, meta learning and one-hot encoding, in combination with Gaussian process (GP) models. We compare their performance with GPs trained only on data of the new process, that is, local models. Using simulated mammalian cell culture data, we observe that both knowledge transfer approaches exhibit test set errors that are approximately halved compared to those of the local models when two, four, or eight experiments of the new product are used for training. Subsequently, we address the question whether experiments for a new product could be designed more effectively by exploiting existing knowledge. In particular, we suggest to specifically design a few runs for the novel product to calibrate knowledge transfer models, a task that we coin calibration design. We propose a customized objective function to identify a set of calibration design runs, which exploits differences in the process evolution of historical products. In two simulated case studies, we observed that training with calibration designs yields similar test set errors compared to common design of experiments approaches. However, the former requires approximately four times fewer experiments. Overall, the results suggest that process development could be significantly streamlined when systematically carrying knowledge from one product to the next.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction models are routinely used to assist in clinical decision making. A small sample size for model development can compromise model performance when the model is applied to new patients. For binary outcomes, the calibration slope (CS) and the mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) are two key measures on which sample size calculations for the development of risk models have been based. CS quantifies the degree of model overfitting while MAPE assesses the accuracy of individual predictions.
METHODS: Recently, two formulae were proposed to calculate the sample size required, given anticipated features of the development data such as the outcome prevalence and c-statistic, to ensure that the expectation of the CS and MAPE (over repeated samples) in models fitted using MLE will meet prespecified target values. In this article, we use a simulation study to evaluate the performance of these formulae.
RESULTS: We found that both formulae work reasonably well when the anticipated model strength is not too high (c-statistic < 0.8), regardless of the outcome prevalence. However, for higher model strengths the CS formula underestimates the sample size substantially. For example, for c-statistic = 0.85 and 0.9, the sample size needed to be increased by at least 50% and 100%, respectively, to meet the target expected CS. On the other hand, the MAPE formula tends to overestimate the sample size for high model strengths. These conclusions were more pronounced for higher prevalence than for lower prevalence. Similar results were drawn when the outcome was time to event with censoring. Given these findings, we propose a simulation-based approach, implemented in the new R package \'samplesizedev\', to correctly estimate the sample size even for high model strengths. The software can also calculate the variability in CS and MAPE, thus allowing for assessment of model stability.
CONCLUSIONS: The calibration and MAPE formulae suggest sample sizes that are generally appropriate for use when the model strength is not too high. However, they tend to be biased for higher model strengths, which are not uncommon in clinical risk prediction studies. On those occasions, our proposed adjustments to the sample size calculations will be relevant.

Mercury (Hg) researchers have made progress in understanding atmospheric Hg, especially with respect to oxidized Hg (HgII) that can represent 2 to 20% of Hg in the atmosphere. Knowledge developed over the past ∼10 years has pointed to existing challenges with current methods for measuring atmospheric Hg concentrations and the chemical composition of HgII compounds. Because of these challenges, atmospheric Hg experts met to discuss limitations of current methods and paths to overcome them considering ongoing research. Major conclusions included that current methods to measure gaseous oxidized and particulate-bound Hg have limitations, and new methods need to be developed to make these measurements more accurate. Developing analytical methods for measurement of HgII chemistry is challenging. While the ultimate goal is the development of ultrasensitive methods for online detection of HgII directly from ambient air, in the meantime, new surfaces are needed on which HgII can be quantitatively collected and from which it can be reversibly desorbed to determine HgII chemistry. Discussion and identification of current limitations, described here, provide a basis for paths forward. Since the atmosphere is the means by which Hg is globally distributed, accurately calibrated measurements are critical to understanding the Hg biogeochemical cycle.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the cause of almost all cases of cervical cancer, a disease that kills some 340,000 women per year. The timeline from initial infection with HPV to the onset of invasive cervical cancer spans decades, and observational studies of this process are limited to settings in which treatment of precancerous lesions was withheld or inadequate. Such studies have been critical for understanding the natural history of HPV. Modeling can shed additional insight on the natural history of HPV, especially across geographical settings with varying prevalence of factors known to affect the host-side immune response to HPV, such as HIV and tobacco use. In this study, we create models for the 30 most populous countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, each with country-specific demographic, and behavioral inputs. We found that it was not possible to fit the data if we assumed that the natural history parameters were exactly identical for all countries, even after accounting for demographic and behavioral differences, but that we could achieve a good fit with the addition of a single immunocompetence parameter for each country. Our results indicate that variation in host immune responses may play a role in explaining the differences in the burden of cervical cancer between countries, which in turn implies a greater need for more geographically diverse data collection to understand the natural history of HPV.

OBJECTIVE: To highlight the use of calibration weighting to improve the precision of estimates obtained from All of Us data and increase the return of value to communities from the All of Us Research Program.
METHODS: We used All of Us (2017-2022) data and raking to obtain prevalence estimates in two examples: discrimination in medical settings (N = 41 875) and food insecurity (N = 82 266). Weights were constructed using known population proportions (age, sex, race/ethnicity, region of residence, annual household income, and home ownership) from the 2020 National Health Interview Survey.
RESULTS: About 37% of adults experienced discrimination in a medical setting. About 20% of adults who had not seen a doctor reported being food insecure compared with 14% of adults who regularly saw a doctor.
CONCLUSIONS: Calibration using raking is cost-effective and may lead to more precise estimates when analyzing All of Us data.

Modern isothermal titration calorimetry instruments give great precision, but for comparable accuracy they require chemical calibration. For the heat factor, one recommended process is HCl into the weak base TRIS. In studying this reaction with a VP-ITC and two Nano-ITCs, we have encountered some problems, most importantly a titrant volume shortfall Δv ≈ 0.3 μL, which we attribute to diffusive loss of HCl in the syringe tip. This interpretation is supported by a mathematical treatment of the diffusion problem. The effect was discovered through a variable-v protocol, which thus should be used to properly allow for it in any reaction that similarly approaches completion. We also find that the effects from carbonate contamination and from OH- from weak base hydrolysis can be more significant that previously thought. To facilitate proper weighting in the least-squares fitting of data, we have estimated data variance functions from replicate data. All three instruments have low-signal precision of σ ≈ 1 μJ; titrant volume uncertainty is a factor of ∼2 larger for the Nano-ITCs than for the VP-ITC. The final heat factors remain uncertain by more than the ∼1% precision of the instruments and are unduly sensitive to the HCl concentration.