复杂的相互作用是在非药物干预措施之间进行的,疫苗接种,以及COVID-19传播期间中国大陆所有流行病的宿主。特别是,在目前的研究中,SVEIR模型描述的城市中的小规模流行病较少。建立了具有对照的SVEIR模型,以分析20种措施前后以Omicron变种为主导的锦州市两种流行病的动态和流行病学特征。在这项研究中,锦州市总人口(N)分为五个部分:易感人群(S)、接种疫苗(V),暴露的(E),感染者(I),和回收的(R)。根据监测数据和SVEIR模型,三种方法(最大似然法,指数增长率法,下一代矩阵法)用于估计基本再现数,结果表明,基本复制数从OmicronBA.5.2到OmicronBA.2.12.1有增加的趋势。同时,通过监测数据调查了两种流行病的有效繁殖数,结果表明,锦州第一波在11月1日达到峰值,并在7天后得到控制,而锦州第二波在11月28日达到高峰,并在5天后得到控制。此外,非药物干预的影响(意识延迟,峰值延迟,控制强度)进行了广泛讨论,还讨论了Omicron变体和EG5变体的感染量表的变化。此外,动态零COVID政策中两种流行病的峰值和感染量表调查由SVEIR模型和对照进行.采用SVEIR模型对锦州市和辽宁省的公共医疗需求调查进行了无对照分析,这为未来的变异进化提供了可能的视角。
The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale epidemic in the city described by SVEIR model was less found in the current studies. The SVEIR model with control was established to analyze the dynamical and epidemiological features of two epidemics in Jinzhou City led by Omicron variants before and after Twenty Measures. In this study, the total population (N) of Jinzhou City was divided into five compartments: the susceptible (S), the vaccinated (V), the exposed (E), the infected (I), and the recovered (R). By surveillance data and the SVEIR model, three methods (maximum likelihood method, exponential growth rate method, next generation matrix method) were governed to estimate basic reproduction number, and the results showed that an increasing tendency of basic reproduction number from Omicron BA.5.2 to Omicron BA.2.12.1. Meanwhile, the effective reproduction number for two epidemics were investigated by surveillance data, and the results showed that Jinzhou wave 1 reached the peak on November 1 and was controlled 7 days later, and that Jinzhou wave 2 reached the peak on November 28 and was controlled 5 days later. Moreover, the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (awareness delay, peak delay, control intensity) were discussed extensively, the variations of infection scales for Omicron variant and EG.5 variant were also discussed. Furthermore, the investigations on peaks and infection scales for two epidemics in dynamic zero-COVID policy were operated by the SVEIR model with control. The investigations on public medical requirements of Jinzhou City and Liaoning Province were analyzed by using SVEIR model without control, which provided a possible perspective on variant evolution in the future.