Abstract：
The increasing level of O3 pollution in China significantly exacerbates the long-term O3 health damage, and an optimized health-oriented strategy for NOx and VOCs emission abatement is needed. Here, we developed an integrated evaluation and optimization system for the O3 control strategy by merging a response surface model for the O3-related mortality and an optimization module. Applying this system to the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), we evaluated driving factors for mortality changes from 2013 to 2017, quantified spatial and temporal O3-related mortality responses to precursor emission abatement, and optimized a health-oriented control strategy. Results indicate that insufficient NOx emission abatement combined with deficient VOCs control from 2013 to 2017 aggravated O3-related mortality, particularly during spring and autumn. Northern YRD should promote VOCs control due to higher VOC-limited characteristics, whereas fastening NOx emission abatement is more favorable in southern YRD. Moreover, promotion of NOx mitigation in late spring and summer and facilitating VOCs control in spring and autumn could further reduce O3-related mortality by nearly 10% compared to the control strategy without seasonal differences. These findings highlight that a spatially and temporally differentiated NOx and VOCs emission control strategy could gain more O3-related health benefits, offering valuable insights to regions with severe ozone pollution all over the world.
摘要：
我国O3污染水平不断上升,显著加剧了O3对健康的长期危害,并且需要针对NOx和VOCs减排的优化健康导向策略。这里,通过合并O3相关死亡率的响应面模型和优化模块，我们开发了O3控制策略的集成评估和优化系统。将该系统应用于长江三角洲（YRD），我们评估了2013年至2017年死亡率变化的驱动因素，量化的时空O3相关死亡率对前体减排的反应，并优化了以健康为导向的控制策略。结果表明，从2013年到2017年，NOx排放减少不足加上VOCs控制不足加剧了与O3相关的死亡率，尤其是在春季和秋季。由于较高的VOC限制特性，北方YRD应促进VOCs控制，而在YRD南部，减少NOx排放更为有利。此外，与无季节差异的控制策略相比，在春季和夏季后期促进NOx减排并在春季和秋季促进VOCs控制可进一步将O3相关死亡率降低近10％。这些发现强调，在空间和时间上区分的NOx和VOCs排放控制策略可以获得更多与O3相关的健康益处，为世界各地臭氧污染严重的地区提供有价值的见解。
