Climate adaptation

气候适应
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    将气候变化与粮食系统联系起来的科学研究,营养和营养相关健康(FSNH)激增,显示双向和复合的依赖关系,为人类和行星健康带来级联风险。在这种扩散中,目前还不清楚哪些证据应该优先采取行动,哪些研究空白,如果填充,将催化最大的影响。我们系统地搜索了与FSNH相关的综合文献(即综述),在2018年1月1日之后发布。我们筛选并提取了这些评论的特征,并将它们映射到交互式证据和差距图(EGM)中,辅以专家咨询。844份综合报告符合纳入标准(来自2,739份记录),并被纳入EGM。最大的一组报告是描述气候对作物和动物源食品(ASF)生产的影响的报告,以及此类排放(86%)。相对较少报告评估气候变化对营养相关健康的影响,或食品制造,processing,storage,和交通。报告侧重于气候适应战略(40%),缓解(29%),两者(19%)或无(12%)。只有四分之一的报告对股权进行了批判性评估(25%),较少报告表明,公平和公平做法的变化将改变气候-FSNH动态(6%)。专家咨询反映了临时首脑会议的结果,和进一步的背景研究结果。这张新地图描述了将气候变化与FSNH联系起来的广泛研究景观。我们确定了四个关键的研究空白,包括1)对整个食物系统或收获后要素的研究2)评估气候变化与营养相关健康结果之间关系的研究,特别是在弱势群体中;3)有希望的方法(和所需的额外数据),可以a)确定拐点或干预杠杆,B)纳入复杂的动态和表征权衡,c)在特定上下文中理解和应用,本地化的决策方式;和4)通过跨学科合作进行的研究,使产生和转化证据为行动,尤其是那些天生考虑联合制作和公平的人。
    Scientific research linking climate change to food systems, nutrition, and nutrition-related health (FSNH) has proliferated, showing bidirectional and compounding dependencies that create cascading risks for human and planetary health. Within this proliferation, it is unclear which evidence to prioritize for action and which research gaps, if filled, would catalyze the most impact. We systematically searched for synthesis literature (i.e., reviews) related to FSNH published after 1 January, 2018. We screened and extracted characteristics of these reviews and mapped them in an interactive Evidence and Gap Map (EGM) supplemented by expert consultation. Eight hundred forty-four synthesis reports met inclusion criteria (from 2739 records) and were included in the EGM. The largest clusters of reports were those describing climate impacts on crop and animal-source food production and emissions from such (86%). Comparatively few reports assessed climate change impacts on nutrition-related health or food manufacture, processing, storage, and transportation. Reports focused on strategies of climate adaptation (40%), mitigation (29%), both (19%), or none (12%). Only 1 quarter of reports critically evaluated equity (25%), and fewer reports suggested that changes to equity and equitable practices would alter climate-FSNH dynamics (6%). The expert consultation mirrored the results of the EGM and contextualized findings further. This novel map describes a wide research landscape linking climate change to FSNH. We identified 4 key research gaps, including the following: 1) research on whole food systems or postharvest elements; 2) research evaluating relationships between climate change and nutrition-related health outcomes, especially among vulnerable populations; 3) promising methods (and additional data required) that can i) identify inflection points or levers for intervention, ii) incorporate complex dynamics and characterize trade-offs, iii) be understood and applied in context-specific, localized ways for decision making; and 4) research undertaken through interdisciplinary collaborations that enables producing and translating evidence to action, especially those that inherently consider coproduction and fairness.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.
    La viabilidad dinámica de resistir (R), aceptar (A) o dirigir (D) el cambio ecológico Resumen Las transformaciones ecológicas ocurren por el cambio climático, lo que representa un reto para los enfoques tradicionales para decidir en torno a la gestión de tierras. El marco resistir‐aceptar‐dirigir (RAD) ayuda a los gestores a considerar cómo responder a este reto. Analizamos cómo la viabilidad de las opciones para resistir, aceptar y dirigir cambia de manera compleja y dinámica con el tiempo. Consideramos cuatro tipos distintos de viabilidad: regulatoria, económica, pública y de organización. Nuestro comentario está basado en la revisión bibliográfica y los ejemplos que existen, pero por necesidad tiene elementos especulativos ya que la evidencia empírica sobre esta estrategia emergente de gestión es escasa. Esperamos que las estrategias de resistir se vuelvan menos viables con el tiempo conforme los gestores encuentren situaciones en las que resistir no es viable de forma ecológica, económica, pública o por regulación. Al igual esperamos que cada vez más los marcos regulatorios permitan su uso, si el costo disminuye, y si el público los acepta, los gestores verán cada vez más viables las estrategias de aceptar y dirigir que las que utilizan actualmente. La exploración de varios tipos de viabilidad a lo largo del tiempo permite considerar las trayectorias sociales y ecológicas del cambio en conjunto. Nuestra teoría sugiere que profundizar en el horizonte temporal de las decisiones permite que se analice con cuidado sobre cuando se deben adoptar enfoques diferentes y cómo combinarlos con el tiempo.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    海洋温度上升,人为气候变化的结果,正在增加频率,强度,和极端海洋热浪(MHW)的大小。这些持续的异常变暖事件可能会产生严重的生态和社会经济影响,威胁生态和经济上至关重要的生物,如双壳类动物及其支持的生态系统。制定强有力的环境和社会框架以增强双壳类水产养殖的复原力和适应性对于确保这一关键食物来源的可持续性至关重要。这篇综述综合了目前对MHW对全球养殖的商业重要双壳类动物的生理和生态影响的理解。我们提出了一个包含环境监测的综合风险评估框架,农场一级的准备计划,和社区层面的社会支持系统,以保护双壳类水产养殖。具体来说,我们研究热浪预测模型,本地缓解策略,和社会计划,可以减轻对经济上依赖这种渔业的双壳类农场和脆弱的沿海社区的影响。在农场一级,适应策略,如耐热菌株的选择性育种,优化的选址,和文化实践的调整可以改善MHW期间的生存结果。强有力的疾病监测和管理计划对于早期发现和快速反应至关重要。此外,我们强调利益相关者参与的重要性,知识交流,以及开发特定环境的协作治理,包容性,和公平的保障制度。积极措施,如先进的预报工具,如NOAA西南渔业科学中心开发的加州水流海洋热浪跟踪器,在损失发生之前启用先发制人的行动。协调准备和响应,以持续监控和适应性管理为基础,承诺保护这些气候脆弱的粮食系统和沿海社区。然而,持续研究,创新,和跨部门合作对于应对迅速变化的海洋带来的挑战至关重要。
    Rising ocean temperatures, a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, are increasing the frequency, intensity, and magnitude of extreme marine heatwaves (MHWs). These persistent anomalous warming events can have severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts, threatening ecologically and economically vital organisms such as bivalves and the ecosystems they support. Developing robust environmental and social frameworks to enhance the resilience and adaptability of bivalve aquaculture is critical to ensuring the sustainability of this crucial food source. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the physiological and ecological impacts of MHWs on commercially important bivalve species farmed globally. We propose an integrated risk assessment framework that encompasses environmental monitoring, farm-level preparedness planning, and community-level social support systems to safeguard bivalve aquaculture. Specifically, we examine heatwave prediction models, local mitigation strategies, and social programs that could mitigate the impacts on bivalve farms and vulnerable coastal communities economically dependent on this fishery. At the farm level, adaptation strategies such as selective breeding for heat-tolerant strains, optimized site selection, and adjustments to culture practices can improve survival outcomes during MHWs. Robust disease surveillance and management programs are essential for early detection and rapid response. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of stakeholder engagement, knowledge exchange, and collaborative governance in developing context-specific, inclusive, and equitable safeguard systems. Proactive measures, such as advanced forecasting tools like the California Current Marine Heat Wave Tracker developed by NOAA\'s Southwest Fisheries Science Center, enable preemptive action before losses occur. Coordinated preparation and response, underpinned by continuous monitoring and adaptive management, promise to protect these climate-vulnerable food systems and coastal communities. However, sustained research, innovation, and cross-sector collaboration are imperative to navigate the challenges posed by our rapidly changing oceans.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球气候治理已进入碳中和时代,越来越多的国家为21世纪中叶的长期减排设定了碳中和的目标。2020年,中国还承诺实现碳中和的目标,这对这个国家建立一个系统和综合的国家气候治理体系提出了迫切的要求。在这种背景下,本文从顶层设计和治理范式的角度对气候治理体系进行了系统的文献综述,为气候治理走向碳中和提供了启示。结果表明,尽管脱碳与其他环境之间存在相互作用,社会和经济领域,在加强对碳中和的气候治理时,研究差距仍然存在。例如,将气候因素纳入经济社会总体布局的问题,加强与气候适应有关的数据收集能力,整合气候减缓和适应行动,以及连接国内气候治理和国际合作,需要进一步解决。此外,在国家治理体系中,在中国分解其国家气候目标时,需要进一步解决将区域和部门问题以及跨期动态分配机制相结合的研究。此外,中央政府和地方政府的权力划分,以及政府和非国家行为者之间的沟通计划,对有效治理也很重要。基于这一分析,为我国制定和实施碳中和的气候治理长期战略提出了政策启示。
    Global climate governance has entered the era of carbon neutrality, as a growing number of countries have set the goal of carbon neutrality for long-term emissions reduction toward the mid-21st century. In 2020, China also pledged itself to the goal of carbon neutrality, which creates an urgent demand for this country to establish a systematic and integrated national climate governance system. Against this background, this paper conducts a systematic literature review of climate governance systems from the perspectives of top-level design and the governance paradigm to bring insights into climate governance toward carbon neutrality. The results show that although there are interactions between decarbonization and other environmental, social and economic fields, research gaps still exist when enhancing climate governance toward carbon neutrality. For example, issues regarding incorporating climate factors into the overall economic and social layout, strengthening the capacity of data collection relevant to climate adaptation, integrating climate mitigation and adaption actions, as well as connecting domestic climate governance and international cooperation, need to be further addressed. In addition, within the national governance system, studies combining both regional and sectoral concerns and the intertemporal dynamic allocation mechanism need to be further addressed when China decomposes its national climate target. Moreover, the division of power between the central government and local government, as well as the communication scheme between government and non-state actors, also turns out to be important for effective governance. Based on this analysis, policy implications are further proposed for China\'s formulation and implementation of long-term strategies of climate governance toward carbon neutrality.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    通常预计物种会向极地或向上倾斜地转移其分布,以逃避变暖的气候并在新的合适气候生态位定居。然而,根据美国中西部88种蝴蝶的18年固定样带监测数据,我们表明蝴蝶正在向各个方向移动它们的质心,除了向变暖最快的地区(东南部)。蝴蝶以1年4.87公里的平均速度移动了质心。质心移动速率与当地气候变化速度(降水相互作用引起的温度)显着相关,但不是整个物种范围内的平均气候变化速度。物种倾向于以更快的速度向以较慢的速度变暖但降水速度增加的区域移动其质心。令人惊讶的是,物种的热生态位宽度(蝴蝶在整个分布过程中经历的气候范围)和翼展(通常用作扩散能力的度量标准)与物种移动范围的速率无关。我们在物种移动质心的方向上观察到高系统发育信号。然而,我们在物种移动质心的速率中没有发现系统发育信号,表明保守的过程比方向物种改变其范围的过程决定了范围移动的速率。这项研究显示了多方向范围变化(纬度和纵向)的重要特征,并且独特地表明,局部气候变化速度在驱动范围变化中比在整个物种范围内的平均气候变化速度更为重要。
    Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18-years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year-1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species\' ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species\' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges. We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges. This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species\' entire range.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    加强气候适应能力的行动正在获得更多的吸引力。为了确保有效适应,监测这些行动的结果和影响非常重要。然而,在监测适应气候变化方面,存在许多挑战和多种方法。本文讨论了建立监测气候复原力和适应项目机制的挑战。根据欧盟适应气候变化使命下的三个欧盟地平线2020项目,它综合了挑战和见解,以支持未来在监测工作中的举措,以供其他项目学习。调查结果,通过与分享学习和挑战的专家的研讨会获得,突出四个关键主题:根据当地需要调整全球框架的挑战,数据可用性和数据评估,监测方面的跨学科合作,和利益相关者参与监测工作。
    Actions to strengthen climate resilience are gaining more traction. In order to ensure effective adaptation, it is important to monitor the outcomes and impacts of these actions. However, there are numerous challenges and a multitude of approaches when it comes to monitoring adaptation to climate change. This paper addresses challenges in setting up mechanisms for monitoring climate resilience and adaptation projects. Drawing from three EU Horizon 2020 projects under the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change, it synthesizes challenges and insights to support future initiatives in their monitoring endeavors for other projects to learn from. Findings, acquired through workshops with experts who shared learnings and challenges, highlight four key themes: the challenge of tailoring global frameworks to local needs, data availability and evaluation of data, interdisciplinary collaboration in monitoring, and stakeholder engagement for monitoring endeavors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化呈现出极端天气事件频率和强度不断升级的明显趋势,对现有道路网络的排水系统构成更高的风险。然而,迄今为止,很少有研究调查未来降雨对主要道路排水的预计变化的后果以及由此产生的道路洪水风险。本文提出的工作建立在有限的研究基础上,通过引入概率模型来评估气候变化对道路排水系统的影响。结合气候不确定性和排水系统变化。基于概率情景的模型和相关框架提供了一种实用和创新的方法,用于在缺乏高分辨率时空数据的情况下,估计2071-2100年未来气候下短期风暴的影响。该模型还有助于评估气候适应战略的有效性。提出了位于爱尔兰南部的道路排水系统的说明性案例研究。发现在强降雨期间道路洪水的可能性预计将超过爱尔兰标准规定的当前可接受限值。对2015年实施的主动气候适应战略的评估表明,可能需要对其进行调整,以进一步减少气候变化影响并优化适应成本。
    Climate change exhibits a clear trend of escalating frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing heightened risks to drainage systems along the existing road networks. However, very few studies to date have investigated the consequences of projected future changes in rainfall on main road drainage and the resulting risk of road flooding. The work presented in this paper builds on the limited research by introducing a probabilistic model for assessing the impact of climate change on road drainage systems, incorporating climate uncertainty and drainage system variation. The probabilistic scenario-based model and associated framework offer a practical and innovative method for estimating the impact of short-duration storms under future climates for 2071-2100, in the absence of fine-resolution spatio-temporal data. The model also facilitates the assessment of the effectiveness of a climate adaptation strategy. An illustrative case-study of a road drainage system located in the south of Ireland is presented. It was found that the probability of road flooding during intense rainfall is projected to surpass the current acceptable limits set by Irish standards. Assessment of a proactive climate adaptation strategy implemented in 2015 indicated it may need to be adjusted to further reduce climate change impacts and optimise adaptation costs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:该研究提供了有关本地和进口辣椒品种适应性的深刻信息。本实验研究了三种不同的辣椒品种Tanjung,取消垫,大阪在发芽和早期生长阶段表现,同时考虑广泛的环境条件。在Jatinangor进行的研究,SumedangRegency,印度尼西亚,突出了品种之间的差异以及每种变异具有的适应性的不同可能性。
    结果:其中,Tanjung是最有前途的品种;其高发芽指数91.7证明了其强劲的性能。大阪的显着特征包括最高的生物量输出(1.429克),最佳用水效率(WUE)为0.015克/升,不同灌溉条件下的分布均匀性(91.2%)和施用效率(73.6%)最佳。Tanjung的竞争力进一步证明了这一点,即它在几个指标上都落后于大阪。Unpad跨标准的较低性能表明可能存在灵活性问题。
    结论:当涉及到消息灵通的育种计划和栽培技术时,这些信息的价值变得显而易见,特别是考虑到不确定的气候模式和全球气候变化。这项研究大大有助于知识体系,为环境动态做出明智的选择,可持续的辣椒种植。
    BACKGROUND: The study offers insightful information about the adaptability of local and imported Chili cultivars. This experiment examines how three different chili cultivars Tanjung, Unpad, and Osaka perform in the germination and early growth phases while considering a wide range of environmental conditions. Research conducted in Jatinangor, Sumedang Regency, Indonesia, highlights the differences between cultivars and the varied possibilities for adaptability each variation possesses.
    RESULTS: Among them, Tanjung stands out as the most promising cultivar; its robust performance is demonstrated by its high germination index 91.7. Notable features of Osaka include the highest biomass output (1.429 g), the best water usage efficiency (WUE) at 0.015 g/liter, and the best distribution uniformity (91.2%) and application efficiency (73.6%) under different irrigation conditions. Tanjung\'s competitiveness is further evidenced by the fact that it trails Osaka closely on several metrics. Lower performance across criteria for Unpad suggests possible issues with flexibility.
    CONCLUSIONS: The value of this information becomes apparent when it comes to well-informed breeding programs and cultivation techniques, especially considering uncertain climate patterns and global climate change. This research contributes significantly to the body of knowledge, enabling well-informed choices for environmentally dynamic, sustainable chili farming.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    计划将社区迁离与气候有关的风险地区,已成为适应气候变化影响的一项关键战略。来自世界各地的经验例子表明,然而,这种搬迁通常会导致受影响社区的不良结果。为了应对这一挑战,并有助于制定公正和可持续的搬迁过程的指导方针,本文提请注意计划搬迁过程中的三个基本紧张关系:(1)风险和可居住性的概念化;(2)社区协商和所有权;(3)孤立的政策框架和筹资机制。借鉴29名研究人员的集体经验,来自世界各地的政策制定者和从业者在气候变化的背景下计划搬迁,我们提供战略,集体和协作地承认和驾驭各级行为者之间的紧张关系,促进更公平和可持续的搬迁过程和成果。
    The planned relocation of communities away from areas of climate-related risk has emerged as a critical strategy to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Empirical examples from around the world show, however, that such relocations often lead to poor outcomes for affected communities. To address this challenge, and contribute to developing guidelines for just and sustainable relocation processes, this paper calls attention to three fundamental tensions in planned relocation processes: (1) conceptualizations of risk and habitability; (2) community consultation and ownership; and (3) siloed policy frameworks and funding mechanisms. Drawing on the collective experience of 29 researchers, policymakers and practitioners from around the world working on planned relocations in the context of a changing climate, we provide strategies for collectively and collaboratively acknowledging and navigating these tensions among actors at all levels, to foster more equitable and sustainable relocation processes and outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    与专家的观点相比,地方观点为灾难规划和响应提供了不同的见解。引诱他们,然而,可能是具有挑战性的,特别是对于那些观点在历史上被排除在规划过程之外的边缘化群体。模糊认知映射(FCM)提供了一种半定量方法来表示不同个体和社区的集体理解或“心理模型”。这项研究涉及对圣马丁三个社区的23次FCM访谈,以了解:(i)飓风伊尔玛(2017)的个人心理模型如何根据其背景而有所不同;(ii)心理模型与政策和规划文件的一致性;(iii)对灾难应对政策的包容性和代表性的影响。研究发现,不同社区的居民对驱动社会生态系统的因素提供了独特的见解,官方政策与优先事项密切相关。本文认为,将不同群体的观点纳入灾难恢复对于公平的过程至关重要。
    Local perspectives provide different insights into disaster planning and response as compared to those of experts. Eliciting them, however, can be challenging, particularly for marginalised groups whose viewpoints have historically been excluded from planning processes. Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) provides a semi-quantitative approach to representing the collective understanding or \'mental models\' of diverse individuals and communities. This study involved 23 FCM interviews across three neighbourhoods of Saint Martin to comprehend: (i) how individuals\' mental models of Hurricane Irma (2017) differ based on their context; (ii) how aligned mental models are with policy and planning documents; and (iii) the implications for the inclusiveness and representativeness of disaster response policies. It found that the residents of different neighbourhoods provided unique insights into the factors driving the social-ecological system, and that official policies aligned closely with priorities. The paper argues that the inclusion of the perspectives of different groups in disaster recovery is essential for an equitable process.
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