BACKGROUND: In the United States, the lifetime prevalence of depression in the US population is 20.6 %. We aimed to understand the temporal trends in the prevalence of depression among adults in the United States during the period 2013-2022 as well as the effects of age, period, and cohort effects on the prevalence of depression.
METHODS: Data from 3,139,488 participants in the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 2013 to 2022 were used in this study. The joinpoint regression model was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to learn about the time trends in the prevalence of depression. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort effects on the prevalence of depression.
RESULTS: The prevalence of depression among adults in the United States showed an overall increasing trend from 2013 to 2022. The rate of increase was greater in males than females, with AAPC values of 1.44 % (95 % CI: 0.32-2.18), and 1.23 % (95 % CI: 0.32-2.25), respectively. Regarding the age effect, the risk of depression among adults in the United States generally showed an increasing and then decreasing trend with age. The risk of developing the condition reached its maximum at 50-54 years (RR = 1.28, 95 % CI = 1.26-1.30). Regarding the period effect, the risk of depression among US adults was higher during 2018-2022 than during 2013-2017. The overall cohort effect for depression prevalence was a higher risk for those born later, with a maximum RR of 1.51 (95 % CI: 1.47-1.54).
CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of adult depression in the United States is showing an increasing trend. Middle-aged people and those born later in life deserve more attention as high-risk groups. It is recommended that the condition burden of depression be reduced with the promotion of healthy lifestyles, the promotion of interpersonal communication, as well as enhanced mental health education and mental health literacy.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to update the relevant epidemiological information of untreated caries in permanent teeth.
METHODS: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We described temporal trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of untreated caries in permanent teeth by gender and region from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to analyze age, period and cohort effects on prevalence, and we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to make projections of prevalence between 2020 and 2049.
RESULTS: The global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth presented a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (26593.58/105 vs. 25625.53/105), with females exceeding males annually. Negative correlation was observed between ASPR and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. APC analyses showed that net drift was -0.16 % globally and generally below 0 across all SDI regions. The overall global peak in prevalence occurred in the 20-24 years group (36319.99/105), and there was a decrease trend in the overall global period rate ratio (RR). Compared to younger birth cohorts, prior birth cohorts had higher prevalence risks globally and across all SDI regions. Significant upward trends was predicted in the global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth for both genders from 2020 to 2049.
CONCLUSIONS: Age-period-cohort effects exerted a significant impact on the prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth during the study period.
CONCLUSIONS: The ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth may increase in the next 30 years by projections. And the disease burden of untreated caries in permanent teeth may be affected by population ageing. It is essential to implement targeted prevention and control policies to disadvantaged groups and attempt to reduce caries inequalities.

UNASSIGNED: The aims of this study were to explore the incidence characteristics and trend prediction of lymphoma from 2005 to 2035, and to provide data basis for the prevention and control of lymphoma in China.
UNASSIGNED: The data on lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 were obtained from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to reflect time trends. Age-period-cohort models were conducted to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the lymphoma incidence. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict lymphoma incidence trends from 2018 to 2035.
UNASSIGNED: From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma was 6.26/100,000, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 4.11/100,000, with an AAPC of 1.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3%, 2.5%]. The ASIR was higher in men and urban areas than in women and rural areas, respectively. The age effect showed that the incidence risk of lymphoma increased with age. In the period effect, the incidence risk of lymphoma in rural areas decreased first and then increased with 2010 as the cutoff point. The overall risk of lymphoma incidence was higher in the cohort before the 1970-1974 birth cohort than in the cohort after. From 2018 to 2035, the lymphoma incidence in men, women, and urban areas will show an upward trend.
UNASSIGNED: From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma showed an increasing trend, and was different in regions, genders, and age groups in China. It will show an upward trend from 2018 to 2035. These results are helpful for the formulation and adjustment of lymphoma prevention, control, and management strategies, and have important reference significance for the treatment of lymphoma in China.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the burden of three major gynecologic cancers(GCs) stratified by social-demographic status across the world from 1990 to 2019. To assess the trends of risk factor attributed mortality, and to examine the specific effects of age, period, cohort behind them in different regions.
METHODS: We extracted data on the mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized rates(ASRs) of cervical cancer(CC), uterine cancer(UC), and ovarian cancer(OC) related to risks from 1990 to 2019, as GCs burden measures. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze trends in attributable mortality rates.
RESULTS: The number of deaths and DALYs for CC, UC and OC increased since 1990 worldwide, while the ASDRs decreased. Regionally, the ASDR of CC was the highest in low SDI region at 15.05(11.92, 18.46) per 100,000 in 2019, while the ASDRs of UC and OC were highest in high SDI region at 2.52(2.32,2.64), and 5.67(5.16,6.09). The risk of CC death caused by unsafe sex increased with age and then gradually stabilized, with regional differences. The period effect of CC death attributed to smoking showed a downward trend. The cohort effect of UC death attributed to high BMI decreased in each region, especially in the early period in middle, low-middle and low SDI areas.
CONCLUSIONS: Global secular trends of attributed mortality for the three GCs and their age, period, and cohort effects may reflect the diagnosis and treatment progress, rapid socioeconomic transitions, concomitant changes in lifestyle and behavioral patterns in different developing regions. Prevention and controllable measures should be carried out according to the epidemic status in different countries, raising awareness of risk factors to reduce future burden.

UNASSIGNED: Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.
UNASSIGNED: Data were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period.
UNASSIGNED: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively.
UNASSIGNED: The early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes.
OBJECTIVE: This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan.
METHODS: Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected.
RESULTS: Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches.
CONCLUSIONS: The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.

UNASSIGNED: Long-term projections of premature mortality (defined as deaths age <75 years) help to inform decisions about public health priorities. This study aimed to project premature mortality rates in Australia to 2044, and to estimate numbers of deaths and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality overall and for 59 causes.
UNASSIGNED: We examined the past trends in premature mortality rates using Australian mortality data by sex, 5-year age group and 5-year calendar period up to 2019. Cigarette smoking exposure data (1945-2019) were included to project lung cancer mortality. Age-period-cohort or generalised linear models were developed and validated for each cause to project premature mortality rates to 2044.
UNASSIGNED: Over the 25-year period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, there was a 44.4% decrease in the overall age-standardised premature mortality rate. This decline is expected to continue, from 162.4 deaths/100,000 population in 2015-2019 to 141.7/100,000 in 2040-2044 (12.7% decrease). Despite declining rates, total numbers of premature deaths are projected to increase by 22.8%, rising from 272,815 deaths in 2015-2019 to 334,894 deaths in 2040-2044. This is expected to result in 1.58 million premature deaths over the 25-year period 2020-2044, accounting for 24.5 million PYLL. Of the high-level cause categories, cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of premature death in Australia by 2044, followed by cardiovascular disease, external causes (including injury, poisoning, and suicide), and respiratory diseases.
UNASSIGNED: Despite continuously declining overall premature mortality rates, the total number of premature deaths in Australia is projected to remain substantial, and cancer will continue to be the leading cause. These projections can inform the targeting of public health efforts and can serve as benchmarks against which to measure the impact of future interventions. They emphasise the ongoing importance of accelerating the prevention, early detection, and treatment of key health conditions.
UNASSIGNED: No funding was provided for this study.

UNASSIGNED: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches.
UNASSIGNED: We assembled a \"toolbox\" of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the \"cancer incidence panel\").
UNASSIGNED: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods.
UNASSIGNED: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to study the primary risk factors for the long-term trends of mortality rates in ischemic stroke (IS) in China.
METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) database, research was conducted on the 11 primary risk factors for the mortality rates of IS in China from 1990 to 2019. This study employed joinpoint regression software and the age-period-cohort method to evaluate the trends of mortality rates divided by age, period, and cohort over time.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) caused by a diet high in red meat and high body mass index in China showed an upward trend. ASMR increased first and then decreased due to smoking, diet high in sodium, particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose, and high systolic blood pressure. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), kidney dysfunction, low temperature, and lead exposure remained relatively stable during this period. In the 35-45 age group, the mortality rate of IS due to high LDL-C was up to about 60%, and smoking affected men more than women. Overall, high LDL-C, high systolic blood pressure, and particulate matter pollution were the most common risk factors in patients with IS. The risk of death rose with age. The period and cohort relative risks showed that metabolic risk factors had the greatest impact on the mortality of IS.
CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic risk factors have become the primary risk factors for the ASMR of IS in China. Relevant authorities should pay attention to their long-term effects on IS. Effective public health policies and interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of IS.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a major cause of premature death and inequity, and global case numbers are rapidly expanding. This study projects future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand.
METHODS: Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to 25-years of national data to project cancer cases and incidence trends from 2020 to 2044. Nationally mandated cancer registry data and official historical and projected population estimates were used, with sub-groups by age, sex, and ethnicity.
RESULTS: Cancer diagnoses were projected to increase from 25,700 per year in 2015-2019 to 45,100 a year by 2040-44, a 76% increase (2.3% per annum). Across the same period, age-standardised cancer incidence increased by 9% (0.3% per annum) from 348 to 378 cancers per 100,000 person years, with greater increases for males (11%) than females (6%). Projected incidence trends varied substantially by cancer type, with several projected to change faster or in the opposite direction compared to projections from other countries.
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing cancer numbers reinforces the critical need for both cancer prevention and treatment service planning activities. Investment in developing new ways of working and increasing the workforce are required for the health system to be able to afford and manage the future burden of cancer.