foodborne diseases

食源性疾病
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:关于基因组数据库在公共卫生中的应用已经写了很多。在食品安全中,这些数据库包含来自两种类型的分离株的数据-来自患者的数据(即,临床)和非临床来源(例如,食品制造环境)。来自这些来源的分离株之间的遗传匹配代表了感兴趣的信号。我们调查了三个大型基因组数据库(单核细胞增生李斯特菌,大肠杆菌,和沙门氏菌)和较小的Cronobacter数据库;这些数据库是NCBI(国家生物技术信息中心)病原体检测项目的一部分。
    结果:目前,单核细胞增生李斯特菌的临床分离株与非临床分离株的匹配率为33%,46%为沙门氏菌,和7%的大肠杆菌。这些匹配率与几个数据库特征相关,包括生物体的多样性,数据库大小,和非临床生物样品的比例。通过逻辑回归建模匹配率显示出相对较好的性能。我们的预测模型说明了用非临床分离株填充数据库以更好地识别临床样品的匹配的重要性。此类信息应有助于公共卫生官员优先考虑监测策略,并显示填充新兴数据库的关键需求(例如,SakazakiiCronobacter).
    OBJECTIVE: Much has been written about the utility of genomic databases to public health. Within food safety these databases contain data from two types of isolates-those from patients (i.e., clinical) and those from non-clinical sources (e.g., a food manufacturing environment). A genetic match between isolates from these sources represents a signal of interest. We investigate the match rate within three large genomic databases (Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella) and the smaller Cronobacter database; the databases are part of the Pathogen Detection project at NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information).
    RESULTS: Currently, the match rate of clinical isolates to non-clinical isolates is 33% for L. monocytogenes, 46% for Salmonella, and 7% for E. coli. These match rates are associated with several database features including the diversity of the organism, the database size, and the proportion of non-clinical BioSamples. Modeling match rate via logistic regression showed relatively good performance. Our prediction model illustrates the importance of populating databases with non-clinical isolates to better identify a match for clinical samples. Such information should help public health officials prioritize surveillance strategies and show the critical need to populate fledgling databases (e.g., Cronobacter sakazakii).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    野猪,巴西有影响力的入侵物种,受到人口控制活动的影响,这通常包括使用猎犬。猎人通常食用野猪肉,也用来喂他们的狗,构成弓形虫感染人类和弓形虫和犬新孢子虫的风险。该研究旨在调查来自圣保罗的野猪(n=127)和猎犬(n=73)的感染率,南里奥格兰德州,和巴拉那州。我们采用了组织病理学,血清学(间接荧光抗体测试),和分子技术(终点聚合酶链反应)。野猪组织病理学切片(中枢神经系统,心,骨骼肌,肝脏,脾,脾肾,胃肠道,胰腺,淋巴结,和甲状腺)切片显示没有弓形虫或犬囊囊肿(0/47)。抗体抗T.在35/108(32.4%)和抗-N中检测到弓形虫。45/108(41.7%)野猪中的犬。只有2/18(11.1%)野猪组织匀浆样品在终点PCR中对弓形虫呈阳性。狩猎犬在62/73(85%)中显示出抗弓形虫的抗体,在31/73(42%)中显示出抗犬奈瑟菌的抗体。野猪和猎犬中存在抗弓形虫和犬奈瑟菌的抗体,以及在野猪中检测弓形虫DNA,表示这些寄生虫的循环。教育猎人预防这些食源性疾病,包括人畜共患病的风险,至关重要。
    The wild boar, an impactful invasive species in Brazil, is subject to population control activities, which often include the use of hunting dogs. Hunters commonly consume wild boar meat, which is also used to feed their dogs, posing a risk of Toxoplasma gondii infection for humans and both T. gondii and Neospora caninum for dogs. The study aimed to investigate the prevalence of infection in wild boars (n = 127) and hunting dogs (n = 73) from São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, and Paraná states. We employed histopathological, serological (indirect fluorescent antibody test), and molecular techniques (endpoint polymerase chain reaction). Histopathology slides of wild boar tissue (central nervous system, heart, skeletal muscle, liver, spleen, kidney, gastrointestinal tract, pancreas, lymph nodes, and thyroid) sections revealed no T. gondii or N. caninum cysts (0/47). Antibodies anti-T. gondii were detected in 35/108 (32.4%) and anti-N. caninum in 45/108 (41.7%) wild boars. Only 2/18 (11.1%) wild boar tissue homogenate samples tested positive for T. gondii on endpoint PCR. Hunting dogs showed antibodies against T. gondii in 62/73 (85%) and against N. caninum in 31/73 (42%). The presence of antibodies against T. gondii and N. caninum in wild boars and hunting dogs, along with T. gondii DNA detection in wild boars, indicates the circulation of these parasites. Educating hunters on preventing these foodborne diseases, including zoonotic risks, is crucial.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    减少食源性疾病发病率是公共卫生的优先事项。本报告总结了2023年食源性疾病主动监测网络(FoodNet)的初步数据,并强调了提高FoodNet代表性的努力。2023年,国内获得性弯曲杆菌病的发病率,产志贺毒素的大肠杆菌感染,耶尔森氏菌病,弧菌病,环孢菌素病增加了,而李斯特菌病,沙门氏菌病,与2016-2018年的发病率相比,志贺氏菌病保持稳定,该基线用于跟踪实现联邦疾病减少目标的进展.在2023年期间,通过向FoodNet报告的独立于培养的诊断测试(CIDT)诊断出的感染的发生率和百分比继续增加。分离病例的百分比下降了,影响观察到的发病率趋势。因为DTs可以诊断以前未被发现的感染,在实现疾病减少目标方面缺乏进展可能反映了诊断方法的改变,而不是发病率的实际增加.需要持续监测,以监测不断变化的诊断方法对疾病趋势的影响,并且需要有针对性的预防工作来实现减少疾病的目标。2023年,FoodNet自2004年以来首次扩大了集水区。这种扩张提高了FoodNet集水区的代表性,FoodNet监测疾病发病率趋势的能力,以及FoodNet数据的泛化性。
    Reducing foodborne disease incidence is a public health priority. This report summarizes preliminary 2023 Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) data and highlights efforts to increase the representativeness of FoodNet. During 2023, incidences of domestically acquired campylobacteriosis, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infection, yersiniosis, vibriosis, and cyclosporiasis increased, whereas those of listeriosis, salmonellosis, and shigellosis remained stable compared with incidences during 2016-2018, the baseline used for tracking progress towards federal disease reduction goals. During 2023, the incidence and percentage of infections diagnosed by culture-independent diagnostic tests (CIDTs) reported to FoodNet continued to increase, and the percentage of cases that yielded an isolate decreased, affecting observed trends in incidence. Because CIDTs allow for diagnosis of infections that previously would have gone undetected, lack of progress toward disease reduction goals might reflect changing diagnostic practices rather than an actual increase in incidence. Continued surveillance is needed to monitor the impact of changing diagnostic practices on disease trends, and targeted prevention efforts are needed to meet disease reduction goals. During 2023, FoodNet expanded its catchment area for the first time since 2004. This expansion improved the representativeness of the FoodNet catchment area, the ability of FoodNet to monitor trends in disease incidence, and the generalizability of FoodNet data.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    结论:可靠和及时地识别疾病暴发是食源性疾病公共卫生监测的关键组成部分。全基因组测序(WGS)可提供食源性细菌病原体的高分辨率分型,并有助于准确检测疫情。这种检测依赖于以适当的遗传阈值将WGS数据分组为簇,然而,缺乏根据监测和流行病学背景所需分辨率选择和调整此类阈值的方法和工具。在这里,我们介绍DODGE(基因组流行病学的动态爆发检测),一种动态选择和比较这些遗传阈值的算法。DODGE可以分析随着时间的推移而扩展的数据集,并且可以使用已建立的基因组命名系统来命名预测与爆发相对应的集群(或“调查集群”),以促进跨司法管辖区的综合分析。DODGE在两个不同持续时间的真实世界基因组监测数据集中进行了测试,从澳大利亚出发两个月,从英国出发9年。在这两种情况下,只有少数分离株被确定为调查簇。DODGE在英国数据集中发现了两次已知的暴发,并在比报告的暴发更早的时间点被发现。这些发现证明了DODGE方法在提高食源性疾病基因组监测的有效性和及时性以及所开发算法的有效性方面的潜力。
    背景:DODGE可在https://github.com/LanLab/dodge免费获得,可以使用Conda轻松安装。
    背景:补充数据可在Bioinformatics在线获得。
    CONCLUSIONS: The reliable and timely recognition of outbreaks is a key component of public health surveillance for foodborne diseases. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) offers high resolution typing of foodborne bacterial pathogens and facilitates the accurate detection of outbreaks. This detection relies on grouping WGS data into clusters at an appropriate genetic threshold. However, methods and tools for selecting and adjusting such thresholds according to the required resolution of surveillance and epidemiological context are lacking. Here we present DODGE (Dynamic Outbreak Detection for Genomic Epidemiology), an algorithm to dynamically select and compare these genetic thresholds. DODGE can analyse expanding datasets over time and clusters that are predicted to correspond to outbreaks (or \"investigation clusters\") can be named with established genomic nomenclature systems to facilitate integrated analysis across jurisdictions. DODGE was tested in two real-world Salmonella genomic surveillance datasets of different duration, 2 months from Australia and 9 years from the United Kingdom. In both cases only a minority of isolates were identified as investigation clusters. Two known outbreaks in the United Kingdom dataset were detected by DODGE and were recognized at an earlier timepoint than the outbreaks were reported. These findings demonstrated the potential of the DODGE approach to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of genomic surveillance for foodborne diseases and the effectiveness of the algorithm developed.
    METHODS: DODGE is freely available at https://github.com/LanLab/dodge and can easily be installed using Conda.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    食源性疾病,代表全球重大的食品安全和公共卫生挑战,在发病率方面没有很好的记录,特别是在中国以急性胃肠炎(AGI)为特征的病例。
    这项研究开发了一个金字塔模型来估计五种病原体的发病率,按性别和年龄分层。95%不确定度区间(UI)的每100,000人的估计发病率如下:诺如病毒,3,188.28(95%UI:2,518.03,7,296.96);沙门氏菌属。,1,295.59(95%UI:1,002.62,1,573.11);腹泻性大肠杆菌(DEC),782.62(95%UI:651.19,932.05);副溶血性弧菌,404.06(95%UI:342.19,468.93);志贺氏菌属。,26.73(95%UI:21.05,33.46)。
    这项研究阐明了不同性别和年龄组的发病率,从而确定有针对性的预防干预措施的优先人群,以减轻疾病负担。这些见解对于制定公共卫生政策和管理食品安全风险至关重要。
    UNASSIGNED: Foodborne diseases, representing significant food safety and public health challenges globally, are not well-documented in terms of incidence, particularly for cases characterized by acute gastroenteritis (AGI) in China.
    UNASSIGNED: This study developed a pyramid model to estimate the incidence of five pathogens, stratified by gender and age. The estimated incidences per 100,000 people with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) are as follows: Norovirus, 3,188.28 (95% UI: 2,518.03, 7,296.96); Salmonella spp., 1,295.59 (95% UI: 1,002.62, 1,573.11); diarrheagenic E. coli (DEC), 782.62 (95% UI: 651.19, 932.05); Vibrio parahaemolyticus, 404.06 (95% UI: 342.19, 468.93); and Shigella spp., 26.73 (95% UI: 21.05, 33.46).
    UNASSIGNED: This study elucidates the incidence rates across various gender and age groups, thereby identifying priority populations for targeted preventive interventions aimed at reducing disease burden. These insights are crucial for the development of public health policies and management of food safety risks.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为必需食物储存的医院冰箱可能是食物污染的重要来源。我们旨在调查德黑兰三台医院冰箱中病原菌的频率和抗生素敏感性。
    这项研究是对254个样品进行的,从三家医院各病房的60台冰箱中收集,A,B,C,在德黑兰,伊朗从2020年到2021年。在分离和鉴定分离株之后,确定了抗生素敏感性模式.基于PCR的测定用于筛选抗性分离株的抗生素抗性基因的存在。
    从收集的254个样本中,236份样品(92.9%)被污染。大多数菌株是从清洁不良的冰箱中分离出来的,非关键病房的温度高于8°C。大多数细菌属于肠杆菌科(68.8%),其次是葡萄球菌(11.9%),和肠球菌(10.6%),而非肠杆菌科分离株的频率为8.9%。耐药菌最高的是超广谱β-内酰胺酶(ESBL)9.7%,耐万古霉素肠球菌(VRE)5.3%,耐甲氧西林表皮葡萄球菌(MRSE)0.4%,耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌(MRSA)0.4%,分别。BlaOXA-48BlaCTX,bclaTEM基因仅在10%的肠杆菌科分离物中发现。在所有非肠杆菌科分离物中都发现了blaOXA-51基因。在耐药肠球菌和葡萄球菌中检测到vanA和mecA基因。
    我们的研究结果表明,交叉污染和抗生素抗性分离株的出现是医院冰箱来源的潜在健康威胁。加强医院冰箱的清洁是预防食源性疾病和医院感染的必要。
    UNASSIGNED: Hospital refrigerators as essential food storage can be important source of food contamination. We aimed to investigate the frequency and antibiotic susceptibility of the pathogenic bacteria in three hospital refrigerators in Tehran.
    UNASSIGNED: This study was performed on 254 samples, collected from 60 refrigerators of the various wards of three hospitals, A, B, and C, in Tehran, Iran from 2020 to 2021. Following isolation and identification of isolates, the antibiotic susceptibility pattern was determined. PCR-based assays were used to screen the presence of antibiotic resistance genes of resistant isolates.
    UNASSIGNED: From 254 collected samples, 236 samples (92.9%) were contaminated. Most strains were isolated from refrigerators with poorly cleaned, temperatures above 8 °C in non-critical wards. Most bacteria belonging to Enterobacteriaceae (68.8%), followed by Staphylococcus (11.9%), and Enterococcus (10.6%), while the frequency of non-Enterobacteriaceae isolates was 8.9%. The highest antibiotic resistant bacteria were in extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) 9.7%, vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) 5.3%, methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (MRSE) 0.4%, and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) 0.4%, respectively. The bla OXA-48, bla CTX, and bcla TEM genes were found only in 10% of Enterobacteriaceae isolates. The bla OXA-51 gene was found in all non-Enterobacteriaceae isolates. The vanA and mecA genes were detected in antibiotic-resistant Enterococcus and Staphylococcus.
    UNASSIGNED: Our findings suggests major concern about cross-contamination and the emergence of antibiotic-resistant isolates as a potential health threat with hospital refrigerators origin. More attention to hospital refrigerators cleaning is necessary to prevent foodborne diseases and nosocomial infections.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    食源性疾病不仅可以归因于细菌或真菌病原体的污染,还可以归因于它们相关的毒素。因此,为了维护食品安全,需要创新的毒素净化技术。我们先前证明了由辊式输送机等离子体装置产生的大气压电介质阻挡放电(APDBD)等离子体可有效灭活食品中的细菌和真菌。这里,我们进一步检查了辊式输送机等离子体装置是否可用于降解食源性细菌病原体产生的毒素,包括黄曲霉毒素,志贺毒素(Stx1和Stx2),肠毒素B和cereulide。每种毒素都被点在铝板上,允许干燥,然后用辊式输送机等离子体装置施加的APDBD等离子体处理不同的时间段。使用竞争性酶联免疫吸附测定(ELISA)和液相色谱-串联质谱(LC-MS/MS)进行评估。结果表明这些毒素的水平显著的时间依赖性降低。ELISA显示,黄曲霉毒素B1浓度在1分钟内从308.6µg/mL降低到74.4µg/mL。对于志贺毒素,Stx1从913.8µg/mL降至65.1µg/mL,在相同的时间范围内(1分钟),Stx2从2309.0µg/mL增加到187.6µg/mL。肠毒素B水平在15分钟时从62.67µg/mL降至1.74µg/mL,30分钟时1.43微克/毫升,但在5分钟内没有显示显着下降。LC-MS/MS分析证实,在30分钟的APDBD等离子体处理后,cereulide降低至检测极限以下。一起来看,这些发现强调,一系列食源性毒素可以通过相对较短的暴露于使用辊式输送机装置的APDBD产生的等离子体而降解。这项技术在食品安全方面提供了有希望的进步,提供了一种减轻食品加工业中毒素污染的新方法。
    Foodborne diseases can be attributed not only to contamination with bacterial or fungal pathogens but also their associated toxins. Thus, to maintain food safety, innovative decontamination techniques for toxins are required. We previously demonstrated that an atmospheric-pressure dielectric-barrier discharge (APDBD) plasma generated by a roller conveyer plasma device is effective at inactivating bacteria and fungi in foods. Here, we have further examined whether the roller conveyer plasma device can be used to degrade toxins produced by foodborne bacterial pathogens, including aflatoxin, Shiga toxins (Stx1 and Stx2), enterotoxin B and cereulide. Each toxin was spotted onto an aluminum plate, allowed to dry, and then treated with APDBD plasma applied by the roller conveyer plasma device for different time periods. Assessments were conducted using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The results demonstrate a significant time-dependent decrease in the levels of these toxins. ELISA showed that aflatoxin B1 concentrations were reduced from 308.6 µg/mL to 74.4 µg/mL within 1 min. For Shiga toxins, Stx1 decreased from 913.8 µg/mL to 65.1 µg/mL, and Stx2 from 2309.0 µg/mL to 187.6 µg/mL within the same time frame (1 min). Enterotoxin B levels dropped from 62.67 µg/mL to 1.74 µg/mL at 15 min, and 1.43 µg/mL at 30 min, but did not display a significant decrease within 5 min. LC-MS/MS analysis verified that cereulide was reduced to below the detection limit following 30 min of APDBD plasma treatment. Taken together, these findings highlight that a range of foodborne toxins can be degraded by a relatively short exposure to plasma generated by an APDBD using a roller conveyer device. This technology offers promising advancements in food safety, providing a novel method to alleviate toxin contamination in the food processing industry.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    微生物食源性致病菌对公共卫生和食品工业提出了重大挑战,需要快速准确的检测方法来预防感染并确保食品安全。传统的单一生物传感技术通常在灵敏度方面表现出局限性,特异性,和速度。作为回应,对结合多种传感技术以增强功效的多模态生物传感方法越来越感兴趣。准确度,以及检测这些病原体的精确度。这篇综述调查了多模态生物传感技术的现状及其在食品工业中的潜在应用。各种多模态生物传感平台,比如光电化学,光学纳米材料,基于多种纳米材料的系统,混合生物传感微流体,和微加工技术进行了讨论。该评论对优势进行了深入分析,挑战,以及食源性病原体多模式生物传感的未来前景,强调其对食品安全和公共卫生的变革潜力。这项综合分析旨在促进制定创新战略,以应对食源性感染并确保全球食品供应链的可靠性。
    Microbial foodborne pathogens present significant challenges to public health and the food industry, requiring rapid and accurate detection methods to prevent infections and ensure food safety. Conventional single biosensing techniques often exhibit limitations in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and rapidity. In response, there has been a growing interest in multimodal biosensing approaches that combine multiple sensing techniques to enhance the efficacy, accuracy, and precision in detecting these pathogens. This review investigates the current state of multimodal biosensing technologies and their potential applications within the food industry. Various multimodal biosensing platforms, such as opto-electrochemical, optical nanomaterial, multiple nanomaterial-based systems, hybrid biosensing microfluidics, and microfabrication techniques are discussed. The review provides an in-depth analysis of the advantages, challenges, and future prospects of multimodal biosensing for foodborne pathogens, emphasizing its transformative potential for food safety and public health. This comprehensive analysis aims to contribute to the development of innovative strategies for combating foodborne infections and ensuring the reliability of the global food supply chain.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于细菌病原体及其毒素引起的食源性疾病暴发已成为全球公共卫生和安全的严重关切。寻找具有针对当前腐败和食源性细菌病原体的独特作用机制的新型抗菌剂是克服抗生素抗性的中心策略。这项研究检查了无机纳米颗粒(NPs)对食源性细菌病原体的抗菌活性和作用机理。用英语写的文章是从寄存器和数据库中恢复的(PubMed,ScienceDirect,WebofScience,谷歌学者,和开放存取期刊目录)和其他来源(网站,组织,和引文搜索)。\"纳米粒子,\"\"无机纳米粒子,\"\"金属纳米颗粒,\"\"金属氧化物纳米颗粒,\“\”抗菌活性,\"\"抗菌活性,\"\"食源性细菌病原体,“\”行动机制,“”和“食源性疾病”是用于检索文章的搜索词。PRISMA-2020清单适用于文章搜索策略,文章选择,数据提取,和审查过程的结果报告。从不同的搜索策略获得的3,575篇文章中,共包括27篇原始研究文章。所有研究都证明了无机NPs的抗菌效果,并强调了它们对食源性细菌病原体的不同作用机制。在本研究中,小尺寸,球形,工程,封顶,与水的低溶解,高浓度NP,在革兰氏阴性细菌类型中,与它们的对应物相比具有很高的抗菌活性。细胞壁相互作用和膜渗透,活性氧的产生,DNA损伤,和蛋白质合成抑制是当前研究中公认的一些广义机制。因此,这项研究建议在食品加工行业中正确使用无毒的无机纳米颗粒产品,以确保食品的质量和安全,同时最大限度地减少食源性细菌病原体对抗生素的耐药性。
    Foodborne disease outbreaks due to bacterial pathogens and their toxins have become a serious concern for global public health and security. Finding novel antibacterial agents with unique mechanisms of action against the current spoilage and foodborne bacterial pathogens is a central strategy to overcome antibiotic resistance. This study examined the antibacterial activities and mechanisms of action of inorganic nanoparticles (NPs) against foodborne bacterial pathogens. The articles written in English were recovered from registers and databases (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and Directory of Open Access Journals) and other sources (websites, organizations, and citation searching). \"Nanoparticles,\" \"Inorganic Nanoparticles,\" \"Metal Nanoparticles,\" \"Metal-Oxide Nanoparticles,\" \"Antimicrobial Activity,\" \"Antibacterial Activity,\" \"Foodborne Bacterial Pathogens,\" \"Mechanisms of Action,\" and \"Foodborne Diseases\" were the search terms used to retrieve the articles. The PRISMA-2020 checklist was applied for the article search strategy, article selection, data extraction, and result reporting for the review process. A total of 27 original research articles were included from a total of 3,575 articles obtained from the different search strategies. All studies demonstrated the antibacterial effectiveness of inorganic NPs and highlighted their different mechanisms of action against foodborne bacterial pathogens. In the present study, small-sized, spherical-shaped, engineered, capped, low-dissolution with water, high-concentration NPs, and in Gram-negative bacterial types had high antibacterial activity as compared to their counterparts. Cell wall interaction and membrane penetration, reactive oxygen species production, DNA damage, and protein synthesis inhibition were some of the generalized mechanisms recognized in the current study. Therefore, this study recommends the proper use of nontoxic inorganic nanoparticle products for food processing industries to ensure the quality and safety of food while minimizing antibiotic resistance among foodborne bacterial pathogens.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    沙门氏菌病,欧洲最常见的食源性感染之一,由食品安全监管计划监测,从而产生了大量的数据库。通过利用基于树的机器学习(ML)算法,我们利用来自食品安全审计的数据来预测意大利西北部沙门氏菌病的时空模式。2015-2018年确认的人类病例数据(n=1969)和2014-2018年收集的食品监测数据用于开发ML算法。我们将每月市政人类发病率与27个潜在预测因素进行了整合,包括观察到的食物中沙门氏菌的患病率。我们应用了树回归,考虑不同场景的随机森林和梯度提升算法,并根据平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和R2评估其预测性。使用2019年的类似数据集,获得了时空预测及其相对敏感性和特异性。随机森林和梯度提升(R2=0.55,MAPE=7.5%)优于树回归算法(R2=0.42,MAPE=8.8%)。食物中沙门氏菌的流行;空间特征;以及即食牛奶的监测工作,水果和蔬菜,猪肉产品对模型的预测性贡献最大,将方差减少90.5%。相反,特定食物基质的阳性样本数量对预测的影响最小(2.9%).2019年的时空预测显示,敏感性和特异性水平分别为46.5%(由于缺乏一些感染热点)和78.5%,分别。这项研究表明,整合来自人类和兽医卫生服务的数据以开发人类沙门氏菌病发生的预测模型具有附加价值,提供有助于减轻食源性疾病对公共卫生影响的早期警告。
    Salmonellosis, one of the most common foodborne infections in Europe, is monitored by food safety surveillance programmes, resulting in the generation of extensive databases. By leveraging tree-based machine learning (ML) algorithms, we exploited data from food safety audits to predict spatiotemporal patterns of salmonellosis in northwestern Italy. Data on human cases confirmed in 2015-2018 (n = 1969) and food surveillance data collected in 2014-2018 were used to develop ML algorithms. We integrated the monthly municipal human incidence with 27 potential predictors, including the observed prevalence of Salmonella in food. We applied the tree regression, random forest and gradient boosting algorithms considering different scenarios and evaluated their predictivity in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R2. Using a similar dataset from the year 2019, spatiotemporal predictions and their relative sensitivities and specificities were obtained. Random forest and gradient boosting (R2 = 0.55, MAPE = 7.5%) outperformed the tree regression algorithm (R2 = 0.42, MAPE = 8.8%). Salmonella prevalence in food; spatial features; and monitoring efforts in ready-to-eat milk, fruits and vegetables, and pig meat products contributed the most to the models\' predictivity, reducing the variance by 90.5%. Conversely, the number of positive samples obtained for specific food matrices minimally influenced the predictions (2.9%). Spatiotemporal predictions for 2019 showed sensitivity and specificity levels of 46.5% (due to the lack of some infection hotspots) and 78.5%, respectively. This study demonstrates the added value of integrating data from human and veterinary health services to develop predictive models of human salmonellosis occurrence, providing early warnings useful for mitigating foodborne disease impacts on public health.
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